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This paper reassesses the wage curve applying regional price deflators, whereas in the literature only uniform national price levels are generally used in wage curve regressions. Existing estimates for the unemployment elasticities vary across countries but lie mostly in the neighborhood of −0.1. Using the data for the 49 US states over the 2008–2015 period and 16 Polish NUTS2 regions over the 2000–2015 period, we test the impact of regional prices on the wage curve employing a variety of approaches. We confirm the existence of wage curves for both countries. Following the theory of monopsonistic competition, this inverse relationship stems from the costs faced by both firms and workers. However, the elasticity of local unemployment and spatial spillovers decreases significantly if regional price deflators are applied. This is due to the fact that there exists a negative relationship between regional prices and unemployment.

This paper analyses how differences in the degree of occupational routine-intensity affect the costs of job loss. We use worker-level data on mass layoffs in Germany between 1980 and 2010 and provide causal evidence that workers who used to be employed in more routine-intensive occupations suffer larger and more persistent earnings losses after the mass layoff. Furthermore, we are able to show that, at least initially, earnings losses are primarily due to a reduction in the number of days in employment, suggesting that routine-intensive workers face considerable frictions in the adjustment to job loss. Conditional on finding a new job, routine-intensive workers are more likely to change their occupations but end up systematically in the lower end of their new occupation's wage distribution.

This paper examines if workers face larger costs from losing their job in a mass layoff whether they were employed in routine-intensive occupations as technological change erodes their employment perspectives outside of their original job. We use worker-level data on mass layoffs in Germany between 1980 and 2010 and provide evidence that workers who were employed in more routine-intensive occupations indeed suffer larger and more persistent earnings losses. We find that earnings losses are primarily due to a reduction in the number of days in employment, suggesting that routine-intensive workers face considerable difficulties in coping with job loss. The additional displacement costs associated with routine intensity have increased over time.

Blanchflower and Oswald [Blanchflower, David G. and Oswald, Andrew J., 1994a, The Wage Curve, (Cambridge, MA, MIT Press), Blanchflower, David G. and Oswald, Andrew J., 1994b, Estimating a Wage Curve for Britain 1973–90, The Economic Journal 104, 1025–1043. Eine praktische Einfuhrung, Nurnberg] reported that they have found an ‘empirical law of economics’ — the Wage Curve. Our paper reconsiders the western German Wage Curve using disaggregated regional data and is based on almost one million employees drawn from the Federal Employment Services of Germany over the period 1980–2004. We find that the wage equation is highly autoregressive but far from unit root. The unemployment elasticity is significant but relatively small: only between − 0.02 and − 0.04. We also check the sensitivity of this elasticity for different population groups (young versus old, men versus women, less educated versus highly educated, German native versus foreigner), confirming that it is stronger the weaker the bargaining power of the particular group.

In times of high and persistent unemployment, it has become one of the most important policy tasks in many developed countries to trigger a process of sustained employment growth. An illustrative example is the policy of regional “growth-poles”, which assumes that a local concentration of a specific industry in a limited geographical area will lead to a growth take-off. The theoretical rationale for this type of regional policy can be knowledge spillovers, whose importance for the economic (employment) growth has been emphasised in the endogenous growth literature. Yet, there is a considerable debate about the precise nature of knowledge spillovers. Do the externalities accrue between sectors (Jacobs-externalities), or are they rather intra-sectoral (MAR-externalities)? Apart from the question what local economic structure is conducive for employment growth, an equally important issue concerns the timing of the impact of externalities. Is it the current economic structure that matters for employment growth, or rather the historical economic structure? If the former turns out to be the case, regional policies might become effective immediately. In the latter case the impact of policy might be slower but also longer lasting. In this paper we study the dynamics of local employment growth in West Germany from 1980 to 2001. Using dynamic panel techniques, we analyse the nature and the timing of Jacobs- and Marshall-Arrow-Romer externalities, as well as the impact of general human capital spillovers. Jacobs-externalities are stronger in manufacturing than in services, the opposite is true for MAR-externalities. General human capital spillovers are only found in manufacturing. The influence of all forms of externalities rapidly decays in time, suggesting that they are rather static than dynamic. Additionally, we look at the impact of competition, general agglomeration effects and overly high regional wages on local employment growth.

This paper examines the East German wage curve using the employment statistics of the Federal Employment Services of Germany (Bundesanstalt fur Arbeit) over the period 1993–1998. The six waves of this panel include a total of 32,188,684 individual employment spells. The statistics comprise the entire population of people gainfully employed and included in the social insurance system. These are classified into 114 administrative districts (Landkreise). Taking into account the endogeneity of unemployment as well as controlling for region and time effects, this paper finds support for the wage curve in East Germany. The overall unemployment elasticity estimate is −0.15 and is higher for female workers than male workers.

This paper examines the German wage curve using the Institut fur Arbeitsmarkt und Berufsforschung (IAB) employment sample over the period 1981–1990. A random sample of 6590 employees covering 142 labor market regions over a ten year period is considered. The total number of observations is 40 852. Taking into account the endogeneity of unemployment as well as controlling for region and time effects, this paper finds support for the wage curve in Germany. The overall unemployment elasticity estimate is −0.07 and is higher for younger workers than older workers. The wages of less qualified workers are more responsive to local unemployment rates than the wages of more qualified workers. Also the wages of men are slightly more responsive to local unemployment rates than the wages of women. Ignoring endogeneity of the local unemployment rate yields results in favor of the wage curve only for younger and less qualified workers. Accounting for endogeneity of the unemployment rate yields evidence in favor of the wage curve across all types of workers.

A wave curve is a decreasing function of wages on the regional unemployment rate. Most empirical studies on the wave curve ignore possible spatial interaction effects between the regions which are the primary units of research. This paper reconsiders the western German wage curve with a special focus on the geography of labour markets. Spillovers between regions are taken into account. The paper tests whether the unemployment rate in the larger surrounding region also affects wages. In addition, agglomeration effects and effects of local monopsony are assessed. The main data base is a random sample of 974,179 employees observed over the period 1980-2004 and covering 326 NUTS3 units (districts). This rich data set is used to estimate a dynamic wage curve according to the two-step approach of Bell et al. (2002). In the first step one controls for individual heterogeneity and in the second step one allows for spatial effects of unemployment across regions on wages. We check the sensitivity of this wage elasticity to various spatial weight matrices as well as allowing for the endogeneity of unemployment. We also estimate the wage elasticity for various population groups.

During the last decade there have been marked changes in the composition of the non-native workforce in the German labour market. In particular there has been a notable increase in the diversity of nationalities of which the foreign workforce is composed. In this paper we investigate the effects of this diversity for native employees. Our analysis is conducted at the local level and uses a panel of 326 Western German regions over the time period 1995-2006. When considering high-skilled foreign workers, we find that both the size of this group and the diversification into different nationalities raise local wages and employment for native employees. For low-skilled foreign workers we find negative size effects. However, these negative effects can be partly offset if the group of low-skilled foreigners is culturally diversified. Our results imply that diversity raises productivity at the local level, but that it is important to distinguish the skill composition of the foreign workforce. These findings remain robust in a variety of robustness checks that take into account omitted variable bias, self-selection of foreigners into particular regions, and spatial autocorrelation.

In this paper, a set of neural network (NN) models is developed to compute short-term forecasts of regional employment patterns in Germany. NNs are modern statistical tools based on learning algorithms that are able to process large amounts of data. NNs are enjoying increasing interest in several fields, because of their effectiveness in handling complex data sets when the functional relationship between dependent and independent variables is not explicitly specified. The present paper compares two NN methodologies. First, it uses NNs to forecast regional employment in both the former West and East Germany. Each model implemented computes single estimates of employment growth rates for each German district, with a 2-year forecasting range. Next, additional forecasts are computed, by combining the NN methodology with Shift-Share Analysis (SSA). Since SSA aims to identify variations observed among the labour districts, its results are used as further explanatory variables in the NN models. The data set used in our experiments consists of a panel of 439 German districts. Because of differences in the size and time horizons of the data, the forecasts for West and East Germany are computed separately. The out-of-sample forecasting ability of the models is evaluated by means of several appropriate statistical indicators.

"This paper analyses the impact of dynamic MAR- and Jacobs-externalities on local employment growth in Germany between 1993 and 2001. In order to facilitate a comparison between the neighbouring countries we firstly replicate the study of Combes (2000) on local employment growth in France and find very similar results for Germany. Afterwards we formulate an alternative empirical model that is based on a weighted regression approach. With this model we find that Jacobs-externalities matter in manufacturing, whereas MAR-externalities are present in advanced service sectors." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))