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Background Heart failure is a prevalent, costly disease for which new value-based payment models demand optimized population management strategies. Objectives This study sought to generate a strategy for managing populations of patients with heart failure by leveraging large clinical datasets and machine learning. Methods Geisinger electronic health record data were used to train machine learning models to predict 1-year all-cause mortality in 26,971 patients with heart failure who underwent 276,819 clinical episodes. There were 26 clinical variables (demographics, laboratory test results, medications), 90 diagnostic codes, 41 electrocardiogram measurements and patterns, 44 echocardiographic measurements, and 8 evidence-based “care gaps”: flu vaccine, blood pressure of Results Machine learning models achieved areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUCs) of 0.74 to 0.77 in a split-by-year training/test scheme, with the nonlinear XGBoost model (AUC: 0.77) outperforming linear logistic regression (AUC: 0.74). Out of 13,238 currently living patients, 2,844 were predicted to die within a year, and closing all care gaps was predicted to save 231 of these lives. Prioritizing patients for intervention by using the predicted reduction in 1-year mortality risk outperformed all other priority rankings (e.g., random selection or Seattle Heart Failure risk score). Conclusions Machine learning can be used to priority-rank patients most likely to benefit from interventions to optimize evidence-based therapies. This approach may prove useful for optimizing heart failure population health management teams within value-based payment models.

Increased clinical use of chest high-resolution computed tomography results in increased identification of lung adenocarcinomas and persistent subsolid opacities. However, these lesions range from very indolent to extremely aggressive tumors. Clinically relevant diagnostic tools to noninvasively risk stratify and guide individualized management of these lesions are lacking. Research efforts investigating semiquantitative measures to decrease interrater and intrarater variability are emerging, and in some cases steps have been taken to automate this process. However, many such methods currently are still suboptimal, require validation and are not yet clinically applicable. The computer-aided nodule assessment and risk yield software application represents a validated tool for the automated, quantitative, and noninvasive tool for risk stratification of adenocarcinoma lung nodules. Computer-aided nodule assessment and risk yield correlates well with consensus histology and postsurgical patient outcomes, and therefore may help to guide individualized patient management, for example, in identification of nodules amenable to radiological surveillance, or in need of adjunctive therapy.

IntroductionPulmonary nodules of the adenocarcinoma spectrum are characterized by distinctive morphological and radiologic features and variable prognosis. Noninvasive high-resolution computed tomography–based risk stratification tools are needed to individualize their management.MethodsRadiologic measurements of histopathologic tissue invasion were developed in a training set of 54 pulmonary nodules of the adenocarcinoma spectrum and validated in 86 consecutively resected nodules. Nodules were isolated and characterized by computer-aided analysis, and data were analyzed by Spearman correlation, sensitivity, and specificity and the positive and negative predictive values.ResultsComputer-aided nodule assessment and risk yield (CANARY) can noninvasively characterize pulmonary nodules of the adenocarcinoma spectrum. Unsupervised clustering analysis of high-resolution computed tomography data identified nine unique exemplars representing the basic radiologic building blocks of these lesions. The exemplar distribution within each nodule correlated well with the proportion of histologic tissue invasion, Spearman R = 0.87, p < 0.0001 and 0.89 and p < 0.0001 for the training and the validation set, respectively. Clustering of the exemplars in three-dimensional space corresponding to tissue invasion and lepidic growth was used to develop a CANARY decision algorithm that successfully categorized these pulmonary nodules as “aggressive” (invasive adenocarcinoma) or “indolent” (adenocarcinoma in situ and minimally invasive adenocarcinoma). Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of this approach for the detection of aggressive lesions were 95.4, 96.8, 95.4, and 96.8%, respectively, in the training set and 98.7, 63.6, 94.9, and 87.5%, respectively, in the validation set.ConclusionCANARY represents a promising tool to noninvasively risk stratify pulmonary nodules of the adenocarcinoma spectrum.