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Quaternary interglacials provide key observations of the Earth system's responses to orbital and greenhouse gas forcing. They also inform on the capabilities of Earth system models, used for projecting the polar ice-sheet and sea-level responses to a regional warmth comparable to that expected by 2100 C.E. However, a number of uncertainties remain regarding the processes and feedbacks linking climate, ice-sheet and sea-level changes during past warm intervals. Here, we delineate the major research questions that need to be resolved and future research directions that should be taken by the paleoclimate, sea-level and ice-sheet research communities in order to increase confidence in the use of past interglacial climate, ice-sheet and sea-level reconstructions to constrain future predictions. These questions were formulated during a joint workshop held by the PAGES-INQUA PALSEA (PALeo constraints on SEA level rise) and the PAGES-PMIP QUIGS (QUaternary InterGlacialS) Working Groups in September 2018.

Several processes contributing to coastal relative sea-level (RSL) change in the North Atlantic Ocean are observed and/or predicted to have distinctive spatial expressions that vary by latitude. To expand the latitudinal range of RSL records spanning the past ∼3000 years and the likelihood of recognizing the characteristic fingerprints of these processes, we reconstructed RSL at two sites (Big River and Placentia) in Newfoundland from salt-marsh sediment. Bayesian transfer functions established the height of former sea level from preserved assemblages of foraminifera and testate amoebae. Age-depth models constrained by radiocarbon dates and chronohorizons estimated the timing of sediment deposition. During the past ∼3000 years, RSL rose by ∼3.0 m at Big River and by ∼1.5 m at Placentia. A locally calibrated geotechnical model showed that post-depositional lowering through sediment compaction was minimal. To isolate and quantify contributions to RSL from global, regional linear, regional non-linear, and local-scale processes, we decomposed the new reconstructions (and those in an expanded, global database) using a spatio-temporal statistical model. The global component confirms that 20th century sea-level rise occurred at the fastest, century-scale rate in over 3000 years (P > 0.999). Distinguishing the contributions from local and regional non-linear processes is made challenging by a sparse network of reconstructions. However, only a small contribution from local-scale processes is necessary to reconcile RSL reconstructions and modeled RSL trends. We identified three latitudinally-organized groups of sites that share coherent regional non-linear trends and indicate that dynamic redistribution of ocean mass by currents and/or winds was likely an important driver of sea-level change in the North Atlantic Ocean during the past ∼3000 years.

Temperature and relative humidity have opposing effects on evaporative water loss, the likely mediator of the temperature-dependence of nephrolithiasis. However, prior studies considered only dry-bulb temperatures when estimating the temperature-dependence of nephrolithiasis. We used distributed lag non-linear models and repeated 10-fold cross-validation to determine the daily temperature metric and corresponding adjustment for relative humidity that most accurately predicted kidney stone presentations during hot and cold periods in South Carolina from 1997–2015. We examined three metrics for wet-bulb temperatures and heat index, both of which measure the combination of temperature and humidity, and for dry-bulb temperatures: (1) daytime mean temperature; (2) 24-hour mean temperature; and (3) most extreme 24-hour temperature. For models using dry-bulb temperatures, we considered four treatments of relative humidity. Among 188,531 patients who presented with kidney stones, 24-hour wet bulb temperature best predicted kidney stone presentation during summer. Mean cross-validated residuals were generally lower in summer for wet-bulb temperatures and heat index than the corresponding dry-bulb temperature metric, regardless of type of adjustment for relative humidity. Those dry-bulb models that additionally adjusted for relative humidity had higher mean residuals than other temperature metrics. The relative risk of kidney stone presentations at the 99(th) percentile of each temperature metric compared to the respective median temperature in summer months differed by temperature metric and relative humidity adjustment, and ranged from an excess risk of 8% to 14%. All metrics performed similarly in winter. The combination of temperature and relative humidity determine the risk of kidney stone presentations, particularly during periods of high heat and humidity. These results suggest that metrics that measure moist heat stress should be used to estimate the temperature-dependence of kidney stone presentations, but that the particular metric is relatively unimportant.

The rate of relative sea-level (RSL) rise at Sandy Hook, NJ (4.0 ± 0.5 mm/yr) was higher than The Battery, NY (3.0 ± 0.3 mm/yr) from 1900 to 2012 despite being separated by just 26 km. The difference cannot be explained by differential glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA; 1.4 ± 0.4 and 1.3 ± 0.4 mm/yr RSL rise, respectively) alone. We estimate the contribution of sediment compaction to subsidence at Sandy Hook using high-resolution grain size, percent organic matter, and porosity data from three upper Quaternary (≤13,350 cal yr) cores. The organic matter content (

We present a Holocene relative sea-level (RSL) database for the Caribbean region (5°N to 25°N and 55°W to 90°W) that consists of 499 sea-level index points and 238 limiting dates. The database was compiled from multiple sea-level indicators (mangrove peat, microbial mats, beach rock and acroporid and massive corals). We subdivided the database into 20 regions to investigate the influence of tectonics and glacial isostatic adjustment on RSL. We account for the local-scale processes of sediment compaction and tidal range change using the stratigraphic position (overburden thickness) of index points and paleotidal modeling, respectively. We use a spatio-temporal empirical hierarchical model to estimate RSL position and its rates of change in the Caribbean over 1-ka time slices. Because of meltwater input, the rates of RSL change were highest during the early Holocene, with a maximum of 10.9 ± 0.6 m/ka in Suriname and Guyana and minimum of 7.4 ± 0.7 m/ka in south Florida from 12 to 8 ka. Following complete deglaciation of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) by ∼7 ka, mid-to late-Holocene rates slowed to

We predict the perturbation to the Earth's length-of-day (LOD) over the Common Era using a recently derived estimate of global sea-level change for this time period. We use this estimate to derive a time series of “clock error”, defined as the difference in timing of two clocks, one based on a theoretically invariant time scale (terrestrial time) and one fixed to Earth rotation (universal time), and compare this time series to millennial scale variability in clock error inferred from ancient eclipse records. Under the assumption that global sea-level change over the Common Era is driven by ice mass flux alone, we find that this flux can reconcile a significant fraction of the discrepancies between clock error computed assuming constant slowing of Earth's rotation and that inferred from eclipse records since 700 CE. In contrast, ice mass flux cannot reconcile the temporal variability prior to 700 CE.

Accelerating Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheet ice mass losses and potential West Antarctic Ice Sheet instability may lead to higher than previously anticipated future sea levels. The New York City Panel on Climate Change Antarctic Rapid Ice Melt (ARIM) upper-end, low probability sea level rise (SLR) scenario, which incorporates recent ice loss trends, improved ice sheet-ocean-atmosphere modeling, and potential ice sheet destabilization, projects SLR of up to 2.1 m by the 2080s and up to 2.9 m by 2100, at high greenhouse gas emissions ( NPCC, 2019 ). These results exceed previous high-end SLR projections (90th percentile) of 1.5 m by the 2080s and 1.9 m by 2100, relative to 2000–2004 ( NPCC, 2015 ). By 2100, the 1% annual chance (100-year) floodplain could cover 1/3 of the city's total area under ARIM; around 1/5 of the area could be flooded during monthly high tides. Some low-lying locations could become permanently inundated by late century. Will New York City coastal resiliency initiatives, guided, in part by NPCC findings, suffice for very high sea levels? Additional research is needed to determine technological, environmental, or economic limitations to coastal protection and to decide when and where strategic relocation may become necessary.

The National Coastal Property Model (NCPM) simulates flood damages resulting from sea level rise and storm surge along the contiguous U.S. coastline. The model also projects local-level investments in a set of adaptation measures under the assumption that these measures will be adopted when benefits exceed the costs over a 30-year period. However, it has been observed that individuals and communities often underinvest in adaptive measures relative to standard cost-benefit assumptions due to financial, psychological, sociopolitical, and technological factors. This study applies an updated version of the NCPM to incorporate improved cost-benefit tests and to approximate observed sub-optimal flood risk reduction behavior. The updated NCPM is tested for two multi-county sites: Virginia Beach, VA and Tampa, FL. Sub-optimal adaptation approaches slow the implementation of adaptation measures throughout the 100-year simulation and they increase the amount of flood damages, especially early in the simulation. The net effect is an increase in total present value cost of $1.1 to $1.3 billion (2015 USD), representing about a 10% increase compared to optimal adaptation approaches. Future calibrations against historical data and incorporation of non-economic factors driving adaptation decisions could prove useful in better understanding the impacts of continued sub-optimal behavior.

Many environmental problems entail a temporal dilemma. Societies benefit from resource use now that will have cumulative negative impacts on future generations. All too often, societies only act to address these risks after a crisis (such as a fisheries collapse or a river on fire) has occurred. Climate change presents a particularly challenging case since when society decides the harms are too great to withstand, reducing greenhouse gas emissions drastically will take time and society will be left to suffer, adapt, or undertake risky geoengineering. In this paper we ask the question: Under what conditions do societies act to address a long term risk before crisis? We draw from the literature in economics, psychology, sociology, and political science to provide a range of potential factors that would contribute to addressing long term risks. We find that long term risk governance is under-theorized and that existing relevant understandings are highly fragmented. We also find that empirical studies testing these theories are limited in number and have mixed results. We propose that case studies of long term risks that have been addressed could be a fruitful avenue forward in developing a more cohesive and empirically rooted theory of when societies address a future risk before a crisis point.

This paper develops the first globally comprehensive and empirically grounded estimates of mortality risk due to future temperature increases caused by climate change. Using 40 countries' subnational data, we estimate age-specific mortality-temperature relationships that enable both extrapolation to countries without data and projection into future years while accounting for adaptation. We uncover a U-shaped relationship where extreme cold and hot temperatures increase mortality rates, especially for the elderly, that is flattened by both higher incomes and adaptation to local climate (e.g., robust heating systems in cold climates and cooling systems in hot climates). Further, we develop a revealed preference approach to recover unobserved adaptation costs. We combine these components with 33 high-resolution climate simulations that together capture scientific uncertainty about the degree of future temperature change. Under a high emissions scenario, we estimate the mean increase in mortality risk is valued at roughly 3.2% of global GDP in 2100, with today's cold locations benefiting and damages being especially large in today's poor and/or hot locations. Finally, we estimate that the release of an additional ton of CO2 today will cause mean [interquartile range] damages of $36.6 [-$7.8, $73.0] under a high emissions scenario and $17.1 [-$24.7, $53.6] under a moderate scenario, using a 2% discount rate that is justified by US Treasury rates over the last two decades. Globally, these empirically grounded estimates substantially exceed the previous literature's estimates that lacked similar empirical grounding, suggesting that revision of the estimated economic damage from climate change is warranted. Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

We produced eight new sea-level index points that reconstruct a ∼2.5 m relative sea-level (RSL) rise at Sea Breeze in the Delaware Bay from ∼200 BCE to 1800 CE. The precision of our reconstruction improved upon existing data by using high-resolution surveying methods, AMS radiocarbon dating of in-situ plant macrofossils collected immediately above the basal contact between pre-Holocene sand and salt-marsh sediments, foraminifera as sea-level indicators, and by accounting for tidal range changes through time. Our new data were combined with a database of 65 sea-level index points available for the Delaware Bay to estimate the rate of RSL rise in the upper (1.26 ± 0.33 mm/yr) and lower bay (1.30 ± 0.36 mm/yr) using a spatial-temporal model. Correction for changes in tidal range through time removed the disparity in rate between the upper and lower Delaware Bay that had previously been postulated. After paleotidal correction, the rates of RSL rise estimated for the Delaware Bay (1.25 ± 0.27 mm/yr) correlate with the ∼1.3 mm/yr rate reported for New Jersey, Maryland, and Virginia, and confirm that the maximal ongoing forebulge collapse along the U.S. Atlantic coast is focused on the mid-Atlantic.

A contribution to PAGES' PALSEA2 working group. ABSTRACT: Late Holocene relative sea level (RSL) reconstructions can be used to estimate rates of land level (subsidence or uplift) change and therefore to modify global sea level projections for regional conditions. These reconstructions also provide the long term benchmark against which modern trends are compared and an opportunity to understand the response of sea level to past climate variability. To address a spatial absence of late Holocene data in Florida and Georgia we reconstructed 1.3 m of RSL rise in northeastern Florida (USA) during the past 2600 years using plant remains and foraminifera in a dated core of high salt marsh sediment. The reconstruction was fused with tide gauge data from nearby Fernandina Beach which measured 1.91 ± 0.26 mm/year of RSL rise since 1900 CE. The average rate of RSL rise prior to 1800 CE was 0.41 ± 0.08 mm/year. Assuming negligible change in global mean sea level from meltwater input/removal and thermal expansion/contraction this sea level history approximates net land level (subsidence and geoid) change principally from glacio isostatic adjustment. Historic rates of rise commenced at 1850–1890 CE and it is virtually certain (P = 0.99) that the average rate of 20th century RSL rise in northeastern Florida was faster than during any of the preceding 26 centuries. The linearity of RSL rise in Florida is in contrast to the variability reconstructed at sites further north on the U.S. Atlantic coast and may suggest a role for ocean dynamic effects in explaining these more variable RSL reconstructions. Comparison of the difference between reconstructed rates of late Holocene RSL rise and historic trends measured by tide gauges indicates that 20th century sea level trends along the U.S. Atlantic coast were not dominated by the characteristic spatial fingerprint of melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

Studies of sea level during previous interglacials provide insight into the stability of polar ice sheets in the face of global climate change. Commonly, these studies correct ancient sea-level highstands for the contaminating effect of isostatic adjustment associated with past ice age cycles, and interpret the residuals as being equivalent to the peak eustatic sea level associated with excess melting, relative to present day, of ancient polar ice sheets. However, the collapse of polar ice sheets produces a distinct geometry, or fingerprint, of sea-level change, which must be accounted for to accurately infer peak eustatic sea level from site-specific residual highstands. To explore this issue, we compute fingerprints associated with the collapse of the Greenland Ice Sheet, West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and marine sectors of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet in order to isolate regions that would have been subject to greater-than-eustatic sea-level change for all three cases. These fingerprints are more robust than those associated with modern melting events, when applied to infer eustatic sea level, because: (1) a significant collapse of polar ice sheets reduces the sensitivity of the computed fingerprints to uncertainties in the geometry of the melt regions; and (2) the sea-level signal associated with the collapse will dominate the signal from steric effects. We evaluate these fingerprints at a suite of sites where sea-level records from interglacial marine isotopes stages (MIS) 5e and 11 have been obtained. Using these results, we demonstrate that previously discrepant estimates of peak eustatic sea level during MIS5e based on sea-level markers in Australia and the Seychelles are brought into closer accord.

Mineral magnetic and ferromagnetic resonance (FMR) measurements made on the sediments from Lake Ely, Pennsylvania reveal the presence of magnetotactic bacteria magnetofossils. Saturation isothermal remanent magnetization (SIRM) data from a 1.25 m long piston core taken from the deepest part of the lake show a large intensity decrease at depths between 30 and 75 cm in the sediment column most likely the result of reductive diagenesis. Modeling of isothermal remanent magnetization (IRM) and anhysteretic remanent magnetization (ARM) acquisition data indicates the presence of biogenic soft (BS) and biogenic hard (BH) magnetosome coercivity components, even at depths in the core greatly affected by reductive diagenesis. First-order reversal curve distribution diagrams for two samples support this interpretation. Modeling of the FMR data also indicates the presence of the BS and BH magnetosome coercivity components, but the relative importance of the two components is opposite to that seen for the IRM and ARM acquisition modeling. A correlation between SIRM variations and local rainfall recorded over the past 70 years suggests that magnetofossil concentrations recorded paleo-rainfall variations in the most recent lake sediments. Multi-taper method spectral analysis of SIRM variations in the piston core, tied to time by varve counting from 1600 common era (CE) to 1128 before CE, show centennial scale periodicities similar to those observed in spectral analysis of a 230 year long historical rainfall record for the northeastern US reconstructed to Philadelphia, PA. This result indicates that enough magnetofossils can survive reductive diagenesis to retain a record of paleorainfall variations, suggesting that they can be a powerful paleoclimate proxy.

Magnetotactic bacteria, which most commonly live within the oxic-anoxic transition zone (OATZ) of aquatic environments, produce intracellular crystals of magnetic minerals, specifically magnetite or greigite. The crystals cause the bacteria to orient themselves passively with respect to the geomagnetic field and thereby facilitate the bacteria’s search for optimal conditions within the sharp chemical gradients of the OATZ. The bacteria may also gain energy from the redox cycling of their crystals. Because magnetotactic bacteria benefit from their magnetic moments, natural selection has promoted the development of traits that increase the efficiency with which the intracellular crystals impart magnetic moments to cells. These traits also allow crystals produced by magnetotactic bacteria (called magnetofossils when preserved in sediments) to be distinguished from abiogenic particles and particles produced as extracellular byproducts of bacterial metabolism. Magnetofossils are recognizable based on their narrow size and shape distributions, distinctive morphologies with blunt crystal edges, chain arrangement, chemical purity, and crystallographic perfection. This article presents a scheme for rating magnetofossil robustness based on these traits. The magnetofossil record extends robustly to the Cretaceous and with lesser certainty to the late Archean. Because magnetotactic bacteria predominantly live in the OATZ, the abundance and character of their fossils can reflect environmental changes that alter the chemical stratification of sediments and the water column. The magnetofossil record therefore provides an underutilized archive of paleoenvironmental information. Several studies have demonstrated a relationship between magnetofossil abundance and glacial/interglacial cycles, likely mediated by changes in pore water oxygen levels. More speculatively, a better-developed magnetofossil record might provide constraints on the long-term evolution of marine redox stratification. More work in modern and ancient settings is necessary to explicate the mechanisms linking the abundance and character of magnetofossils to ancient biogeochemistry.

Magnetotactic bacteria produce intracellular crystals of magnetite or greigite, the properties of which have been shaped by evolution to maximize the magnetic moment per atom of iron. Intracellular bacterial magnetite therefore possesses traits amenable to detection by physical techniques: typically, narrow size and shape distributions, single-domain size and arrangement in linear chains, and often crystal elongation. Past strategies for searching for bacterial magnetofossils using physical techniques have focused on identifying samples containing significant amounts of single domain magnetite or with narrow coercivity distributions. Searching for additional of traits would, however, increase the likelihood that candidate magnetofossils are truly of biological origin. Ferromagnetic resonance spectroscopy (FMR) is in theory capable of detecting the distinctive magnetic anisotropy produced by chain arrangement and crystal elongation. Here we present analyses of intact and lysed magnetotactic bacteria, dilutions of synthetic magnetite, and sedimentary samples of modern carbonates from the Great Bahama Bank, Oligocene–Miocene deep-sea muds from the South Atlantic, and Pleistocene lacustrine deposits from Mono Basin, California. We demonstrate that FMR can distinguish between intact bacterial magnetite chains, collapsed chains, and linear strings of magnetite formed by physical processes. We also show that sediments in which the magnetization is likely carried by bacterial magnetite have FMR spectra resembling those of intact or altered bacterial magnetite chains.

Magnetotactic bacteria precipitate intracellular crystals of single-domain magnetite (Fe3O4) and/or greigite (Fe3S4), which have often been implicated in carrying the natural remanent magnetization (NRM) of freshwater and marine sediments. In vivo, the magnetic crystals are usually aligned in chains such that their moments add together, generating net cellular moments high enough to rotate the cells passively to align with the geomagnetic field. A magnetostatic/biophysical analysis demonstrates that this arrangement is out of dynamic equilibrium and would collapse spontaneously without a support mechanism. Past rock magnetic analyses of shallow water marine carbonates suggest that partial collapse does occur during diagenesis and dolomitization. To calibrate this effect we induced magnetosome chain collapse in Magnetospirillum magnetotacticum strain MS-1 by progressive sonification and treatment with detergents and monitored the changes with rock magnetic analysis and TEM. Although it has been speculated that the cell wall and associated membrane structures act to prevent magnetosome chain collapse, our data indicate that magnetosome linearity persists long after cells are disrupted. This is consistent with prior observations that in some magnetotcocci the magnetosome chains pass through the cell interior, precluding continuous contact with the cell wall and implying additional support structures exist in some species. Using TEM tomographic reconstructions prepared with a magnetic technique that prevents chain collapse, we examined the three dimensional ultrastructure of magnetosomes without the problem of post-mortem magnetosome motion. This method revealed the presence of an intracellular organic sheath beyond that of actin-like filaments reported recently that follows the chain of magnetosomes, which we postulate evolved to hold the crystals in place and enhances their ability to preserve NRM in sediments. As the genomes of two magnetotactic bacteria contain several apparent homologues of known eukaryotic cytoskeletal proteins, natural selection for magnetotaxis may have played a role in the evolution of precursors to the eukaryotic cytoskeleton. The presence of this sheath is also consistent with the observation of electron translucent material associated with putative magnetofossil chains in ALH84001.

Magnetite is both a common inorganic rock-forming mineral and a biogenic product formed by a diversity of organisms. Magnetotactic bacteria produce intracellular magnetites of high purity and crystallinity (magnetosomes) arranged in linear chains of crystals. Magnetosomes and their fossils (magnetofossils) have been identified using transmission electron microscopy (TEM) in sediments dating back to ∼510–570 Ma, and possibly in 4 Ga carbonates in Martian meteorite ALH84001. We present the results from two rock magnetic analyses—the low-temperature Moskowitz test and ferromagnetic resonance (FMR)—applied to dozens of samples of magnetite and other materials. The magnetites in these samples are of diverse composition, size, shape, and origin: biologically induced (extracellular), biologically controlled (magnetosomes and chiton teeth), magnetofossil, synthetic, and natural inorganic. We confirm that the Moskowitz test is a distinctive indicator for magnetotactic bacteria and provide the first direct experimental evidence that this is accomplished via sensitivity to the magnetosome chain structure. We also demonstrate that the FMR spectra of four different strains of magnetotactic bacteria and a magnetofossil-bearing carbonate have a form distinct from all other samples measured in this study. We suggest that this signature also results from the magnetosomes' unique arrangement in chains. Because FMR can rapidly identify samples with large fractions of intact, isolated magnetosome chains, it could be a powerful tool for identifying magnetofossils in sediments.