Search

This study presents an ex post evaluation of the accuracy of long-term macroeconomic forecasts presented by economics researchers. The economic growth and inflation forecasts for the next ten years are biased upward. Economic growth forecasts by academic researchers are less upwardly biased than those by professional forecasters in private institutes and that by the government. However, the upward bias of academic researchers specializing in macroeconomics and economic growth is larger than those in the other research fields. These results indicate that long-term economic forecasting involves significant uncertainty, even for economists.

There is abundant literature about the impact of residential insulation on energy consumption using different methods. However, ex-post evaluation methods have not been used yet, which are helpful when the participants in a program are not chosen randomly. Therefore, this study performs the first ex-post evaluation of a residential insulation program using the “matching with differences-in-differences” method. This non-experimental method allows obtaining the causal impact of the program since it controls for observable factors and non-observable factors that are invariable over time. The data comes from a unique survey that includes energy consumption for heating and control variables for households benefited and not benefited by the program, both in the year before and after the retrofit. The results show that the residential insulation program does not significantly reduce energy consumption or external PM2.5 emissions in the treated dwellings. Still, there is a significant increase in the perception of thermal comfort associated with the rebound effect. Thus, it is concluded that the program has not been an effective tool to reduce air pollution, but it improves the quality of life through an increase in thermal comfort.

We use monthly data on transit supply and ridership to evaluate the impact of BRT type reforms in intermediate cities in Colombia. We find that these reforms are associated with a decrease in aggregate transit ridership. This is particularly troubling since it points to a reduction in the attractiveness of public transport for users and a substitution to other potentially more unsustainable modes, such as private vehicles or informal taxi services. We also show that reform reduced fleet size and commercial kilometers supplied and we conjecture that this, together with additional transfers required in the new systems, raised the generalized cost of transport for transit services. We present circumstantial evidence that this conjecture is correct and argue that this was probably the case in other Latin American experiences, such as Santiago, Lima and Bogota (SITP).

The two Nordic countries Norway and Sweden have launched governance regimes for the early phases of transport infrastructure investments after experiencing frequent cost overruns and low cost-benefit ratios. This study seeks to find out if these governance regimes have reduced the escalation of costs from early estimates to finalized projects and influenced the choice of projects away from those with lower benefit to cost ratios. We have compared governance regimes for major transport infrastructure investments in the two countries and examined the development and content of quality assurance activities, the involvement of internal and external parties, their duties and responsibilities, their stage gate models, and how decisions are made. The findings are that both countries have introduced formalizations of their governance regimes that mandate project reviews during the planning process and quality assurance, both of which have increased early cost estimates. One difference was that in Norway, the Ministry of Finance manages the quality assurance scheme and imposes external quality assurance requirements, while Sweden has no corresponding ministerial oversight. Therefore, on the one hand, the process is more strictly formalized in Norway, but on the other hand, cost-benefit ratios appear to have more weight in Sweden. Furthermore, although both countries have done several ex post evaluations, neither country has introduced a formalized ex post evaluation process allowing for systematic examination of the causes of cost overruns and low benefit to cost ratios. Even so, politicians may manoeuvre projects with lower benefit to cost ratios around the governance systems in both countries. Finally, some projects in both countries still have experienced significant cost escalations despite these processes.

Voluntary agreements (VAs) have become an attractive instrument to encourage clean production in the world, since they can be adapted to each industrial sector and country in which they are implemented. In Chile, VAs are known as Clean Production Agreements/Acuerdos de Produccion Limpia (APLs). In this context, the present study aims to perform an ex - post evaluation of the APLs that have been signed and implemented in different industrial sectors of Chile to establish if there is a causal relationship between this program and the reduction in consumption of water, electricity, fuels and CO2 emissions. For the above, a pseudo-panel technique is used with data from firms that are grouped into cohorts by industrial sector according to the ISIC code, which are obtained from the different versions of the Annual National Industrial Survey between 2001 and 2014. The results show that the APLs have only contributed to significantly reduce the consumption of fuel oil (46.8%) and liquefied petroleum gas (15.7%), which coincides with a statistically significant reduction in CO2 emissions (11.2%). Therefore, it can be concluded that the APLs have been successful, but that they also require improvements in their design to reduce the consumption of water, electricity and of other fuels.

The problem-based and project-oriented learning factory format of the bachelor’s programme “Manufacturing and Operations Management” at Heilbronn University of Applied Sciences was recently evaluated. The research aimed at answering the questions of how the competence profile required by the industry from the graduates’ perspective looked like, and to what extent the learning factory was able to contribute to those competence expectations. To that end, a survey among the bachelor graduates from 2015 to 2017 was initiated in March 2018. The results of this study not only confirm the general picture gained from the literature that the industry attributes great importance to so-called soft skills, i.e. self-competences and methodological competences. It also shows in detail that the specific learning factory concept at Heilbronn University strengthens, among others, particularly, those afore-mentioned specialist competences.

This study is a post-project evaluation of three development projects promoting the same technology but implemented at three different times and locations over a period of thirty years, from 1984 to 2014. The technology in question is a small, portable palm oil expeller invented in Cameroon in the 1980 s. The technology was designed to increase the productivity of small farmers and create employment opportunities by increasing local capacity for small-scale palm oil processing. The expeller was subsequently promoted in Benin and Liberia over a period of nearly two decades. This evaluation is based on archival research of institutional records, data from impact surveys of technology users in all three countries during the project periods, and field research in Liberia in 2011 and 2013. The study analyzes and evaluates the social, economic, and environmental impacts of the expeller over the long term, comparatively, across a broad geographic area. In terms of social and economic impacts, the technology consistently increased incomes for farmers and small enterprises. The use of the technology altered relationships of production, particularly with regard to the role of women in palm oil processing and their control over resources. Environmental impacts of the technology are geographically dispersed and include increased water usage and pollution. Ultimately the technology in question has also contributed to political impacts over time by exacerbating conflicts between small farmers, palm oil corporations, and governments. This study confirms that comparative, longitudinal evaluation research can reveal important dimensions of development impacts.

Existing studies identify analyst skills by ex post evaluation of their outputs (forecasts and recommendations), which are contaminated by luck and noise. Using the premises that questions reveal interest and that interest and practice lead to skill, we construct an ex ante analyst topic-specific skill measure based on the frequency of topic-specific questions that analysts raise during previous earnings conference calls. In a supply chain information setting, we show that analysts with supply-chain-specific skill experience a greater improvement in forecast accuracy relative to their peers when the firms they cover establish relationships with important supply chain partners. Analysts with supply-chain-specific skill improve information efficiency in capital markets, as shown by faster information diffusion speed along the supply chain and stronger market reactions to their recommendation updates.

Distributed energy supply has a prominent impact on solving the contradiction between energy supply and demand, environmental degradation, and other issues. This paper analyzes the application of distributed energy supply for specific power projects. We developed a systematic post project evaluation index and evaluation model using the theory of matter-element extension, and determined weights for all indicators that influenced distributed energy generation projects, combined with the attribute hierarchical model. The proposed model was verified experimentally, and shown to enhance evaluation of distributed generation projects. In addition, (1) Distributed energy systems have been widely applied across the world due to their inherent advantages of flexibility, convenience, environmentally friendliness, and high reliability, so it is necessary to study. (2) This paper combined the matter-element extension theory (MEET) and the attribute hierarchical model (AHM) to develop an evaluation model for distributed generation projects. The proposed model was verified experimentally using actual distributed energy project data. (3) This paper enhances the evaluation theoretical research on the post-evaluation of distributed generation projects and capturing experience and lessons for subsequent projects.

Estimating the causal effects of China's environmental regulation on air quality is of great importance for developing effective and efficient policies. Our study first compared the evaluation approaches used in applied econometrics, and environmental science and engineering. It then assessed the environmental effectiveness of the recently strengthened air pollution regulation in China, by developing quasi-experimental designs based on the pollution control programs for the APEC Meeting and the Victory-day Parade. We empirically confirmed that the regulation brought a short-term, substantial improvement in air quality in Beijing. Compared with the hypothetical situation in the absence of the programs, the Victory-day Parade regulation reduced AQI by 37.4%, and the daily average concentrations of PM 2.5 , PM 10 , O 3 , SO 2 , NO 2 , and CO by 55.8%, 50.1%, 27.2%, 35.9%, 39.9%, and 28.8%, respectively; the APEC regulation brought down the AQI by 35.9%, and the concentrations of PM 2.5 , PM 10 , SO 2 , NO 2 , and CO by 41.3%, 48.2%, 56.5%, 38.9%, and 35.5%, respectively. Further analyses of 70 cities in North China found that the effects in the assigned key control areas were greater than those in the ordinary control areas. Our study enriches the assessments of the regulatory experimentations for the two important events, and demonstrates the strengths of using the quasi-experimental approach to execute quick and reliable ex post evaluation of environmental regulation in China. It also summarizes our first-step, exploratory progress in the challenging communication among the policy-evaluation perspectives and methodologies of different disciplines.

To effectively reduce the energy consumption of existing hotel buildings, it is necessary to efficiently implement building energy-saving retrofitting. In this study, the efficacy of energy-saving retrofitting of existing hotel buildings was examined. The hotel energy consumption characteristic was analyzed via an energy consumption survey, and energy saving benefits were evaluated via field tests and mathematical statistics analysis. Further, by simultaneously considering the technical application and economy, a technology and economy evaluation was conducted. Finally, regarding the comfort of users, a thermal comfort evaluation was performed using tests and questionnaires. Based on these results, the simulated energy consumption evaluation, economic, and thermal comfort indicators energy-saving retrofitting were analyzed. The results showed that the energy consumption of hotels after energy-saving retrofit is reduced by more than 25% compared to the consumption before. Among them, application of energy-efficient LED light can achieve energy-saving rate of 70.85% with highest technical efficiency of 0.70 kWh/(yuan•a) (0.104 kWh/($•a)). The average payback period of these hotels of 2.55 years and the lowest technical efficiency of 0.24 kWh/(yuan•a) (0.004 kWh/($•a)) were used as the basis of energy consumption monitoring and management platform. In addition, more than 85% of the users are satisfied with thermal and humidity environment of these retrofit hotels according to answers in questionnaires. The suitable energy-saving retrofit technologies for existing hotels were proposed, offering choice of energy-saving retrofit for similar public buildings in hot summer and cold winter areas.

•Socioeconomic principles to choose between government and toll funding are developed.•The principles are then tested on 25 Norwegian toll projects that have been implemented.•We find that BCAs assume government funding only even if projects are funded by tolls.•Furthermore, the marginal cost of government funds were not included in the analyses.•Even so, 50% of tolls generated higher B/C ratios as compared to government funding.

Background/aims The National Institutes of Health (NIH) implemented a recruitment milestone and progress reporting policy in fiscal year 2019. While too recent to evaluate, the National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH) previously implemented a similar policy in fiscal year 2006 which may forecast likely effects of the NIH-wide policy. Methods An observational, single-group, pre/post evaluation of the association between the NIMH policy and the Relative Citation Ratio was conducted for non-fellowship, competing clinical trial grants funded from fiscal years 2004–2007. Results 124 clinical trial grants were identified. After adjusting for covariates, the clinical trial grants subject to the NIMH recruitment monitoring policy were associated with a statistically significant mean-per-grant citation ratio (citations relative to the field norm) 1.98 times that of the clinical trial grants that were not subject to the policy (p = 0.005; 95% CI: [1.23, 3.20]). The clinical trial grants subject to the policy were also associated with a non-statistically significant 1.58 times maximum-per-grant citation ratio compared to the clinical trial grants not covered by the policy (p = 0.24; 95% CI: [0.73, 3.44]). Conclusions The NIMH recruitment monitoring and reporting policy was associated with a statistically significant increase in the mean-per-grant Relative Citation Ratio. NIMH-specific results suggest that the NIH-wide policy might also be positively associated with improved Relative Citation Ratio.

In the turn of 12th and 13th “Five-Year Plan” of China, the global oil and gas market changes greatly. In this regard, the target post-evaluation of the “12th Five-Year” oil and gas exploration and development planning was conducted, which is of significant importance to scientifically and reasonably making the specific “13th Five-Year” oil and gas exploration and development target planning. The post-evaluation results indicate that, in the period of “12th Five-Year Plan”, the oil and gas exploration and development targets of China were satisfactorily completed, but some deficiencies still existed. For example, the target of oil production (2 × 108 t) was overfulfilled, while the target of oil reserves (65 × 108 t) remained 6.4% outstanding. The target of gas reserves (3.5 × 1012 m3) was overfulfilled, while the target of gas production (1385 × 108 m3) remained 6.2% outstanding. Moreover, the targets of unconventional gases were not satisfactorily completed-shale gas being better than coalbed methane (CBM). Failures to fulfill some targets in “12th Five-Year Plan” were primarily attributed to the slowdown of oil and gas consumption growth, sharp drop of oil price, downgrading of resources, and changes of statistic basis under the new normal. The forecast results suggest that, in the period of “13th Five-Year Plan”, given USD50–70/bbl of world oil price, China's annual average incremental conventional oil and gas in place will be 10.0 × 108–12.0 × 108 t and 6000 × 108–8000 × 108 m3 respectively, annual average incremental shale gas and CBM in place will be 1000 × 108–2000 × 108 m3 and 500 × 108–1000 × 108 m3 respectively, and annual oil production will be about 2.0 × 108 t. By 2020, China's annual gas production will approach 1800 × 108–2000 × 108 m3 (shale gas: 200 × 108 m3, and CBM: 150 × 108 m3).

This study suggests a post-evaluation model for future and emerging technologies identified by previous foresight activities to determine whether their potential has been maintained, extended, or minimized due to rapid technological and social changes in the research and development environment occurring after the technology item was selected. Moreover, the proposed model is based on specialist insight, and can measure whether the selected technology is still promising and socially and technically feasible at the current time domestically and worldwide based on a technology growth curve. The results of the case study suggest which technology items have been implemented or unimplemented due to particular accelerators or obstacles, which items are still promising, and the technology level of the items. The proposed model focuses on the technology items themselves, whereas previous evaluation activities have focused only on the process and impacts of foresight projects. Moreover, this post-evaluation model can be applied to various emerging technology items that are continuously selected and reported around the world, allowing for the monitoring of changes in the brightness and realization status of previously selected items. Thus, the model can provide feedback for the future selection process to improve the reliability of emerging technology selections and suggest the information for decision-making with related to a particular emerging technology item.

Summary Background Whilst midwives are well-placed to identify and address the mental health need of women in their care, many report lacking the ability to do so. Therefore, they ignore or brush aside women's mental health needs. To improve midwives' competency in this area, the first authors developed and delivered a module on perinatal mental health issues within their university. The module aimed to improve knowledge, skills, and attitudes in relation to working with women about mental health issues. In 2012, a post-survey evaluation of the module demonstrated positive findings; following a number of revisions to the module, this more robust pre/post evaluation was conducted. Objectives The objective of this study was to examine the impact of the perinatal mental health module on student midwives' knowledge, skills, and attitudes in addressing mental health issues with women. Design Pre-module and Post-module Surveys were Used. Participants Participants were students undertaking a 4-year undergraduate direct entry midwifery degree programme in Ireland. The pre-survey had 28 participants, the post-survey had 26 participants, and there were 25 matched pairs. Methods The data were analysed using SPSS Version 21.0. Descriptive, frequencies and paired sample t-tests were calculated. Qualitative data were analysed thematically. Results Comparison of the pre and post measures, based on paired samples t-tests, showed that the programme statistically increased participants' knowledge and skills. Whilst students' self-reported attitudes towards women and mental health issues were already quite positive, they reported even more positive attitudes following the course. Written feedback provided by students also supported these positive findings. Conclusion This evaluation provides evidence that a module on perinatal mental health is effective at improving the self-reported knowledge, skills, and attitudes of student midwives towards women with mental health issues. It is recommended that educators consider the opportunity of including a similar module in their curriculum.

This paper evaluates the impact of the Environmental Decontamination Plans (known as PDAs) on air quality in Chilean cities, for which the differences in differences method was used during the period between 2010 and 2017. The ex-post evaluation shows that the implementation of a PDA for PM10 has no impact on the monthly concentrations of PM10. However, the new PDAs for PM2.5 (that were implemented starting in 2015) reduce the monthly concentrations of PM10 by approximately 8 μg/m3, although they have not reduced the monthly concentrations of PM2.5. Thus, it is concluded that the assumptions and scenarios used in the ex-ante evaluations to project the reduction of PM2.5 concentrations in the PDAs are extremely optimistic in relation to their current contribution to improving air quality in Chile.

This paper has considered what post-legislative scrutiny is and why it is necessary, and also considers New Zealand’s approach to ex post evaluation. While this paper does not argue against the proposition that better post-legislative scrutiny is necessary in New Zealand, it does argue that better post-legislative scrutiny is not going to be achieved by introducing a formal review process which engages an independent review body and undertakes standardised review of all legislation. This paper considers that the focus should instead be on the post-legislative scrutiny processes that are already in place in New Zealand and how those can be strengthened. In particular the focus should be on providing better guidance around the role of departments as regulatory stewards, creating better feedback loops between the ex ante and ex post stages of evaluation, and approaching regulatory management in an integrated way. This paper concludes that it is just not going to be politically feasible to introduce a formal and systematic approach to review when there are other, more cost effective measures that can be taken to improve post-legislative scrutiny in New Zealand.

Exchange of genetic material within and among national populations has increased rapidly with the development of artificial insemination and frozen embryos. This has increased the need to compare genetic evaluations across populations and ultimately to combine those evaluations for animals of interest. The combination of different sources of information became even more crucial with the development of genomic evaluation. This review summarizes different strategies and algorithms for solving issues related to comparison of methodology for genetic and genomic evaluations and their combination. Reviewed strategies and algorithms for genetic evaluations were categorized as either a post-evaluation or simultaneous combination approach. Post-evaluation approaches make external and internal estimates of genetic merit and their associated reliabilities comparable or combine them after performing external and internal evaluations. Simultaneous combination approaches combine external estimates of genetic merit and their associated reliabilities with internal phenotypic and pedigree data as interval evaluations are calculated. Several of the strategies developed for genetic evaluations were recently adapted for the context of genomic selection, and were mentioned in this paper.

There is widespread interest in the ability of retrofit schemes to shape domestic energy use in order to tackle fuel poverty and reduce carbon emissions. Although much has been written on the topic, there have been few large-scale ex post evaluations of the actual impacts of such schemes. We address this by assessing domestic energy use before and after the Kirklees Warm Zone (KWZ) scheme, which by fitting insulation in 51,000 homes in the 2007–2010 period is one of the largest retrofit schemes completed in the UK to date. To do this, we develop and apply a new methodology that isolates the impacts of retrofit activity from broader background trends in energy use. The results suggest that the actual impacts of the KWZ scheme have been higher than predicted, and that the scale of any performance gaps or rebound effects have been lower than has often been assumed. They also suggest that impacts on energy use in lower income areas are consistent with predictions, but that impacts in middle and higher income areas are higher than predicted. These findings support the case for the wider and/or accelerated adoption of domestic retrofit schemes in other contexts.

Access to sustainable and affordable energy services is a crucial factor in reducing poverty in developing countries. In particular, small-scale and community-based renewable energy projects are recognized as important forms of development assistance for reaching the energy poor. However, to date only a few empirical evaluations exist which analyze and compare the impact of these projects on local living conditions and their sustainability ex-post implementation. To better understand the impacts and the conditions that influence sustainability of these projects, the research presented in this paper evaluated 23 local development projects post implementation. By applying an standardized evaluation design to a cross-sectional sample in terms of renewable energy sources (solar, wind, biomass, hydro), user needs (electricity, food preparation, lighting, productive uses), community management models, finance mechanisms and geographical locations, the review results provide valuable insights on the underlying conditions that influence the success or failure of these small-scale local energy interventions. The empirical evidence suggests that the sustainability of small-scale energy implementations (≤100 kW) in developing countries is determined by the same factors, independent of the socio-cultural, political and ecological context. These findings allow to better predict the long-term success of small sustainable energy projects in developing countries, this can help to improve project designs and increase the certainty for future investment decisions.

This pilot is a pre/post comparative assessment of a leadership course developed and delivered using an innovative, ontological/phenomenological model of education. Participants in the course delivered in Singapore in July of 2014 provided measures of the effectiveness of their leadership before and after the course, using a scale from 1 (least effective) to 10 (most effective). The difference in scores from pre- to post-course was the unit of measure. Of 167 participants, 72% provided pre- and post-course measures. Average scores for participants’ effectiveness as leaders in the domains of Relationships, Vocation, Avocation, and Self increased from pre- to post-course by 1.9, 1.86, 1.64, and 1.85 respectively (p < 0.0001). Future research of this innovative model of leadership education will include long-term follow-up.

Class III railroads, also called “short line railroads” are crucial to economic activity and transport of goods. The private and social benefits of maintaining short line railroads is well-established in the literature, yet the cost of doing so is often prohibitive for short line operators. Thus, several assistance programs have been established, most of which are operated by the state departments of transportation. This review of these programs indicated that there is no unique methodology for administering rail freight assistance programs and evaluating applications submitted for funding, and that most of them lack clear administrative details such as published project criteria, ranking procedure and post evaluation requirements. The objectives of this paper are to present a comprehensive review of the New Jersey rail grants program, identify the shortcomings of its evaluation process and provide recommendations for improving the program's project selection criteria and application ranking. It is found that the current scores used in the evaluation process cannot always clearly differentiate between applications for funding. To that end, using the results of a targeted survey of experts, an adjustment to the current review criteria and the corresponding scores is suggested for implementation.

Compared with traditional fossil fuel energy, wind power is becoming more and more popular relies on its environment protected characteristic. In China, the wind power industry has undergone a rapid development based on the rapid development of wind power technology and the support from Chinese government policy. However, there is still a big difference between actual generating capacity and design data, which has caused a great impact on people's life and running of power grid. It is necessary to have a post-evaluation on wind farm planning. Based on studying domestic and foreign literatures that are about evaluation on wind farms, this paper gets a more comprehensive and integrated post-evaluation dedicator framework on wind farm planning. This framework consists of four indicators and ten sub-indicators, and also adds in evaluation study on management effect particularly, proposes a new evaluation perspective compared with the existing research.

The McGill’s/AWS merger was cleared by the UK Competition Commission mainly on the basis of its belief that the threat of entry would be sufficient to prevent unilateral effects from arising post-merger. This is very close to argue that these local bus markets were contestable. This ex post evaluation case study based on the publicly available data and information on frequencies and fares suggests that the entry threat may have not been a strong disciplining force post-merger.

Most ex-post evaluations of research funding programs are based on bibliometric methods and, although this approach has been widely used, it only examines one facet of the project's impact, that is, scientific productivity. More comprehensive models of payback assessment of research activities are designed for large-scale projects with extensive funding. The purpose of this study was to design and implement a methodology for the ex-post evaluation of small-scale projects that would take into account both the fulfillment of projects' stated objectives as well as other wider benefits to society as payback measures. We used a two-phase ex-post approach to appraise impact for 173 small-scale projects funded in 2007 and 2008 by a Spanish network center for research in epidemiology and public health. In the internal phase we used a questionnaire to query the principal investigator (PI) on the outcomes as well as actual and potential impact of each project; in the external phase we sent a second questionnaire to external reviewers with the aim of assessing (by peer-review) the performance of each individual project. Overall, 43% of the projects were rated as having completed their objectives "totally", and 40% "considerably". The research activities funded were reported by PIs as socially beneficial their greatest impact being on research capacity (50% of payback to society) and on knowledge translation (above 11%). The method proposed showed a good discriminating ability that makes it possible to measure, reliably, the extent to which a project's objectives were met as well as the degree to which the project contributed to enhance the group's scientific performance and of its social payback.

Summary Background ICU nurses often report that timely informational and supportive resources would ease distress for clients and providers alike. Objectives This pilot study was aimed to explore the role of a comprehensive information and support programme in enhancing the work environment, task performance and reducing emotional distress amongst ICU nurses. Research methodology/design Through a mixed quantitative and qualitative design, nurses were invited to complete self-report questionnaires ( n = 25) and to participate in focus groups ( n = 7) prior to (T1) and 6 weeks after the implementation of the supportive programme (T2). Results Measures of physical and mental effort were found to be significantly lower ( t = 2.45, p = 0.02) at post test (T2). Statistical trends towards significance were observed for higher performance satisfaction ( t = 1.70, p = 0.10) and lower emotional distress ( t = 2.00, p = 0.06) at T2. Focus group data revealed that nurses felt more supported in their work, had more satisfaction with work tasks accomplished and felt more emotionally supported with the programme being in place. Conclusions Preliminary data from this pilot study suggest that a comprehensive information and support programme designed to support nurses in the ICU can enhance well being and workplace related factors. Work is currently underway to document the program's impact on family members in the ICU. Future studies should document further how and when similar programme contribute to enhance the workplace for other ICU staff.

Objective To investigate changes of different domains of breaking bad news (bbn) competences after a teaching module for medical students, and to collage the results generated by different approaches of evaluation. Methods Rating of medical student–SP interactions by means of a global rating scale and a detailed checklist used by SPs and independent raters. Results Students improved their breaking bad news competency. However, the changes vary between the different domains of bbn competency. In addition, results generated by different evaluation instruments differ. Conclusion This study serves as a stimulus for further research on the training of specific elements of bbn and different approaches of evaluating bbn competency. Practice implications In light of the different facets of bbn competency, it is important to set priorities regarding the teaching aims and to provide a consistent approach.

Accurate energy saving effect evaluation analysis of building energy efficiency retrofit is of benefit to obtain technology optimization and fast return of investment. According to the implement sequence, evaluation methods can be divided into post evaluation and prediction evaluation. The energy saving effect of an air-conditioning system retrofit project was analyzed by these two models respectively. The post evaluation model was built based on the spot test data and a parameter called as Refrigeration Operation Energy saving Effect Ratio (ROEER). The prediction evaluation model was built based on Back-Propagation Artificial Neural Network by the use of MATLAB Neural Network Toolbox. The comparison result between these two kinds of evaluation models match well with each other. These two models can be used to predict and evaluate energy saving effect of air-conditioning system retrofit to further improve the real energy saving effect of building energy efficiency retrofit.

Urban development around the world is moving towards the sustainability of green cities, green buildings and green landscape. Countries worldwide are working together to advocate developing sustainable cities fit for human existence. As a protection measure for returning the city into its original style, protective urban restoration aims at offering visual design languages and formal design intentions for expressing the history and culture of the city.

The paper study the effect of different reference points in time regarding the ‘before’ and ‘after’ situation and how this may influence the ex post evaluation. Four Norwegian railway projects are analysed ex post. We have found that the choice of reference points that are chosen to represent the situation before and after a project, respectively, will often have a major impact on the result of an evaluation. In fact, the studied projects can be presented as either successes or failures, depending on the choice of reference years. The parameters used in this comparison are punctuality, frequency, travel time, and number of travellers. Four projects have been studied. Four parameters for each project generate a total of 16 indicators. By selecting certain years as reference years, 11 of the 16 indicators can be presented as either an increase or decrease. Stakeholders with a biased agenda towards certain projects can actually pick reference years to present the outcome of projects in a way that that fit their agenda. It is recommended that more than one measurement approach is applied in ex post evaluations.

Various energy-modelling activities are pursued by public authorities, private companies and research institutes with the aim to provide energy forecasts and to assess the impact of energy and environmental policies. Nevertheless, no ex-post evaluations of the results of these modelling activities have been carried out at the European Community level. This paper investigates and compares the assumptions and the results from a European study carried out in the middle of the eighties with the combination of the so-called Modele de prospective de la demande energetique a long terme (MEDEE) and Energy flow optimization (EFOM) models with the targeted year of 2000 as presented in the “ENERGY 2000” study. Concretely, assumptions and forecasts are compared with real statistical data. In this way, an evaluation of quantitative tools and model results can be established. The aim of this paper is not to evaluate the quantitative tools themselves but their results and their policy relevance within a frame of 15 years.

As part of an impact study of a soil and water conservation (SWC) project in southern Mali, the effect of erosion control measures on soil erosion was evaluated. In one village, a baseline situation from 1988 was compared with the situation in 2003, after farmers had installed stone rows, live fences and grass strips, and had started cultivating across to the slope. This comparison showed a spectacular decrease in gully volume in cultivated fields of 87%, from 58 to 8 m3 ha−1. Estimated annual soil loss decreased with 77% from 42 to 10 t ha−1 year−1. However, baseline data on erosion gullies were not available for other villages. In the absence of baseline data, a simple ‘with–without’ comparison does not allow a correct evaluation because farmers install erosion control measures especially in fields with more erosion. Two alternative methods were used: a reconstructed baseline and a virtual time series. Using the reconstructed baseline, looking not only at active gullies but also at (partly) reclaimed gullies, we concluded that line interventions, gully interventions, and a combination of both, reduced the proportion of active gullies by 48%, 47% and 70%, respectively. Using a virtual time series, comparing erosion in fields with erosion control measures installed in different years, we concluded that erosion gradually decreased by 50% during the 3 years after installation of erosion control measures. In a separate study, we found a positive effect of gully interventions and sowing across to the slope in reducing sheet erosion. A reduction of the slope of the sowing direction by 1% reduced the cover of runoff deposit of coarse sand with 8%. Although a documented baseline is preferred, both a reconstructed baseline and a virtual time series are useful tools and make ex-post evaluations more relevant than a simple with–without comparison.

The Cooperative Extension Service has been a key partner in the design, implementation, and evaluation of school nutrition training. To evaluate the effectiveness of their training and the effects of response shift bias on outcomes using a self-report measure, 162 foodservice staff from eight rural schools participated in this food-handling behavior study. Nutrition staff were assigned to one of two treatment groups or to the control group. Two different evaluation designs (pre-test/post-test and then/post) were used. The then/post design asks participants to first report their behavior or understanding as a result of the training (post) and then to retrospectively report this behavior before the training. The then/post evaluation design provided more significant change data than did the traditional pretest/post-test design, indicating that a response shift occurred. Such differences in evaluation findings suggest that the educational benefit of such trainings may be underestimated when using the traditional pre/post evaluation design.

The Swedish carbon dioxide tax was introduced in 1991, by adjusting the existing energy taxation to consider the carbon load of fuels. The tax was initially set at a general level of US $133 1 per ton carbon (tc). It was differentiated in 1993, with the result that industry paid US $43/tc while non-industrial consumers paid US $160/tc. This paper presents an ex post evaluation of the tax, using the criteria developed by OECD in 1997. The period under consideration is from 1990 to 1995. The effects of the tax must be seen in relation to other policy measures introduced. The effects of the tax vary across sectors. Biofuel use in the district heating sector increased from 36.7 PJ to 73.4 PJ, replacing primarily coal, thus leading to great carbon dioxide savings. Dynamic effects of the tax include development of new industry for refined wood fuels and extraction machinery. Transport has not been affected. Industry pays lower taxes on fossil fuels with the differentiated tax than it did before the tax was introduced, leading to increased fossil fuel use. While potentially cost effective measures in industry have thus been lost, international competitiveness has not been affected. The effect of the carbon dioxide tax on emissions depends on system assumptions; estimated abatement ranges from 0.5 to 1.5 million tons CO2 on a yearly basis.

The paper presents the methodology for monitoring and evaluating the efficiency of current environmental protection expenditures of municipalities developed within the project of Ministry of Environment of the Czech Republic. The methodology has been approved as the voluntary environmental tool for municipal officials. A proposal of methodological procedure for evaluating municipal environmental protection expenditure is based on multi-criteria weighed assessment. It gives municipalities the instrument for assessment of expenditure efficiency and includes all three pillars of sustainable development – economical, ecological and environmental. In the paper are investigate outputs which results from the evaluation of environmental protection expenditures in the city of Brno that is the second largest city in the Czech Republic and represents the territory where live approximately 380,000 citizens. The results show real state of expenditure efficiency in the city Brno and point out the possibility of improving the current situation. The methodology is assessing tool based on available data usable for other states and their municipalities for evaluation of effectiveness of public spending at the local level.

Only a very few developing countries have formally institutionalised EIA practices. This paper claims that the reasons for this slow rate for adopting formal EIA principles and practices are no longer those discussed in earlier literature which include the absence of an enabling environment. Rather, developing countries require a system which is capable of demonstrating that environmental impact analyses are not difficult to undertake and that, had they been undertaken, some adverse effects of new projects could have been averted. For this purpose, the concept of an EIA study is introduced. It provides a method of evaluation whose application is not inevitably political. The scope, time and content of the study could be determined exclusively by a single researcher or an environmental agency with little or no political influence. Such studies can then be used to provide an objective assessment of the winners and losers from projects. Their results can be used as concrete evidence in developing countries regarding the merits of EIAs. EIA studies are differentiated from ex post evaluation of projects in the paper.

We employ a model-based approach in an ex-post evaluation of monetary policy decisions taken by the Bank of Israel during the years 2001-2010. Using ex-post information, we test, for each individual year, whether there could have been a Pareto improvement in inflation and output volatilities. This involves simulating counterfactual scenarios under alternative monetary policy shocks, where for each such simulation we compute the Root Mean Squares (RMS) of the inflation and output gaps during and following the evaluated year. We then examine the deviation of actual RMS from simulation-based frontiers. We also compare the actual RMS to a counterfactual RMS which would have been obtained for the case of no policy shocks. In other words, we test whether actual policy shocks were "efficient". The exercise reveals several distinct sets of years: years in which actual RMSs were close to the efficient frontier (2001 and 2009) and years in which they were far away (2003, 2004 and 2006); years in which monetary policy shocks led to an absolute improvement in economic outcomes (2004 and 2008) or an absolute worsening (2003, 2006); and years characterized by aggressive policy shocks (2002, 2008 and 2009), which were usually aimed at narrowing the output gap at the expense of more volatile inflation.

Horizontal-merger price simulations, which rely upon pre-merger data to predict post-merger prices, have been proposed and used in antitrust policymaking. However, a dearth of closely observed large mergers in differentiated-product industries makes empirical investigations of simulation performance extremely difficult, and raises many questions regarding the accuracy of simulation performance. Although a handful of previous studies exist, they focus on short-term simulation performances and ignore long-run effects of mergers. This research investigates the long-run simulation performance and long-run pricing effects of merger in the Korean automobile industry for the period 1991–2010. This period saw the merger of Hyundai and Kia Motors in 1998, a merger caused by the Asian economic crisis and which resulted in the conglomeration of 70 percent of the Korean automobile market. By taking Nevo’s (2000, 2001) method as a base and measuring its performance against this real-world merger, I find that post-merger prices can be predicted reasonably well in the short term, but that large discrepancies appear in the long-run simulation. To account for this discrepancy, I confirm four further factors that appear essential to move toward a more accurate post-merger price simulation model: change in marginal costs, change in product lines, and change in consumer incomes and preferences. I counterfactually investigate each factor’s contribution to price change, confirming their significance. In my investigation I estimate consumer preferences and substitution patterns leading up to the merger, then I calculate marginal costs, and simulate post-merger prices. In addition, I estimate automobile assembly plant-level production functions to evaluate merger synergy effects. By incorporating changes in the four factors I mention, I can account for 61 percent of the long-run price discrepancy.

This paper provides a comparative analysis of methods for the empirical ex post evaluation of merger control decisions. It develops a competition-policy oriented framework of assessment criteria for the leading evaluation methods and applies them to structural modeling and simulation, differences-in-differences methods, event studies as well as survey-based methods. It concludes that a method-mix is recommendable, however, under the exclusion of event studies that fail to secure a minimum level of reliability regarding the evaluation results. Furthermore, it warns against overly optimistic expectations about the effects of systematic impact evaluations of merger decisions.

This paper demonstrates how the of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was useful in rationally measuring the intangible and complex impacts of the Trans-Sumatra Highway (TSH) built in the late 1970's. Specifically, the task, using the AHP, was to analyze the overall impact of the highway according to the perception of local people, not that of the researchers or some other party. Many cost-benefit studies tend to underestimate the importance of the local society where the impact of the project is felt most strongly. Yet, when one speaks about the costs and benefits of a local project, ideally, it should be referring to those benefits and costs that affect the local people, directly or indirectly.

International business research has long acknowledged the importance of regional factors for foreign direct investment ("FDI") by multinational corporations ("MNCs"). However, significant differences when defining these regions obscure the analysis about how and why regions matter. In response, we develop and empirically document support for a framework to evaluate alternative regional grouping schemes. We demonstrate application of this evaluative framework using data on the global location decisions by US-based MNCs from 1980-2000 and two alternative regional grouping schemes. We conclude with discussion of implications for future academic research related to understanding the impact of country groupings on MNC FDI decisions.

The analysis of technological developments for purposes like technological forecasting through the use of leading indicators or ex post evaluation of science and technology oriented policies, nearly always lead to the evaluation of patent statistics. From these the authors established indicators of technological development using numbers of patents applied for or granted worldwide, thus preventing sampling and weighting errors. Account was taken of the effect of patent families as well as connections between technological developments in different fields. Furthermore, methods were established to identify areas with important technological developments. The final part of the paper shows the first results of application of these methods to the comparison of international patenting activities in selected fields.

This article is concerned that the appraisal and post-evaluation of fisheries aid projects, while examining the financial rate of return (FRR) on the project, may make overoptimistic estimates of the economic rate of return (ERR). because they neglect to examine the resource base of the industry. Thus, under highly competitive conditions, especially if financial assistance is given to increase effort, a successful project may lead to overinvestment in the industry. thus threatening fish stocks, which the fisheries sector may not be able to prevent. Suggestions are made for widening the scope of post-evaluation so that policy measures emanating from outside the narrow confines of the fisheries sector may be implemented to prevent excessive growth of the industry.

The literature on the generalizability of program effects focuses exclusively on the a priori development of evaluation designs which enable certain generalizations to be made. Due to a variety of factors, new questions of a program's generalizability often arise only after the completion of the formal evaluation study. This paper suggests secondary analysis procedures which can be employed using existing evaluation data to estimate a program's generalizability when followup field studies are not feasible.