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Federal land managers in the US can be informed with quantitative assessments of the social conditions of the populations affected by wildfires originating on their administered lands in order to incorporate and adapt their management strategy to achieve a more targeted prioritization of community wildfire protection investments. In addition, these assessments are valuable to socially vulnerable communities for quantifying their exposure to wildfires originating on adjacent land tenures. We assessed fire transmission patterns using fire behavior simulations to understand spatial variations across three diverse study areas (North-central Washington; Central California; and Northern New Mexico) to understand how different land tenures affect highly socially vulnerable populated places. Transboundary wildfire structure exposure was related to populations with limited adaptive capacity to absorb, recover and modify exposure to wildfires, estimated with the Social Vulnerability Index using US Census unit data (block groups). We found geographic heterogeneity in terms of land tenure composition and estimated fire exposure. Although high social vulnerability block groups covered small areas, they had high population and structure density and were disproportionately exposed per area burned by fire. Structure exposure originated primarily from three key land tenures (wildland-urban interface, private lands and national forests). Federal lands proportionately exposed, on an area basis, populated places with high social vulnerability, with fires ignited on Forest Service administered lands mostly affecting north-central Washington and northern New Mexico communities.

US public land management agencies are faced with multiple, often conflicting objectives to meet management targets and produce a wide range of ecosystem services expected from public lands. One example is managing the growing wildfire risk to human and ecological values while meeting programmatic harvest targets for economic outputs mandated in agency budgets. Studies examining strategic management tradeoffs on federal lands and program efficiencies are rare. In this study we used the 79 western US national forests to examine tradeoffs between forest management scenarios targeting wildfire risk to the wildland urban interface (WUI) and those meeting agency convertible volume production targets. We quantified production frontiers to measure how the efficiency of meeting harvest volume targets is affected by prioritizing treatments to areas that transmit fire to the WUI. The results showed strong tradeoffs and scale effects on production frontiers, and more importantly substantial variation among planning areas and national forests. Prioritizing treatments to reduce fire transmission to the WUI resulted in an average harvest volume reduction of about 248 m3 per ha treated. The analysis also identified opportunities where both management objectives can be achieved. This work represents the first large-scale tradeoff analysis for key management goals in forest and fuel management programs on national forests.

Risk management typologies and their resulting archetypes can structure the many social and biophysical drivers of community wildfire risk into a set number of strategies to build community resilience. Existing typologies omit key factors that determine the scale and mechanism by which exposure from large wildfires occur. These factors are particularly important for land managing agencies like the US Forest Service, which must weigh community wildfire exposure against other management priorities. We analyze community wildfire exposure from national forests by associating conditions that affect exposure in the areas where wildfires ignite to conditions where exposure likely occurs. Linking source and exposure areas defines the scale at which cross-boundary exposure from large wildfires occurs and the scale at which mitigation actions need to be planned. We find that the vast majority of wildfire exposure from national forests is concentrated among a fraction of communities that are geographically clustered in discrete pockets. Among these communities, exposure varies primarily based on development patterns and vegetation gradients and secondarily based on social and ecological management constraints. We describe five community exposure archetypes along with their associated risk mitigation strategies. Only some archetypes have conditions that support hazardous fuels programs. Others have conditions where managing community exposure through vegetation management is unlikely to suffice. These archetypes reflect the diversity of development patterns, vegetation types, associated fuels, and management constraints that exist in the western US and provide a framework to guide public investments that improve management of wildfire risk within threatened communities and on the public lands that transmit fires to them.

Predicting the efficacy of fuel treatments aimed at reducing high severity fire in dry-mixed conifer forests in the western US is a challenging problem that has been addressed in a variety of ways using both field observations and wildfire simulation models. One way to describe the efficacy of fuel treatments is to quantify how often wildfires are expected to intersect areas prioritized for treatment. In real landscapes treatments are static, restricted to a small portion of the landscape and against a background of stochastic fire and dynamic vegetation, thus the likelihood of fire encountering a treatment during the period treatments remain effective is small. In this paper we simulate a wide range of different treatment prioritization schemes using the forest landscape simulation model Envision to examine 50 years of fire-treatment interactions and forest succession. We first reviewed 47 fuel management projects in Oregon, USA to build prioritization schemes that addressed different fuel management objectives. We then simulated different priority schemes in the 18 planning areas of the Deschutes National Forest in central Oregon and measured potential fire-treatment interactions over time. Simulated annual area burned was used to calculate the success odds for each priority scheme and planning area. Out of the ten metrics considered only three had higher success odds than a random prioritization of planning areas. Spatial allocation of projects based on burn probability and transmitted wildfire had the highest success odds among the tested metrics. However, success odds declined sharply as desired success levels increased suggesting that fuel management goals need to be tempered to consider the stochastic nature of wildfire. Meeting long-term multiple management goals over time can benefit from consideration of short- and long-term tradeoffs from different treatment prioritization schemes. Our work contributes towards a better framing of both management and public expectations regarding the performance of fuel treatments programs.

The development of comprehensive fire management and risk assessment strategies is of prominent concern in Southern Europe, due to the expanding scale of wildfire risk. In this work, we applied simulation modeling to analyze fine-scale (100-m resolution) wildfire exposure and risk transmission in the 24,000 km2 island of Sardinia (Italy). Sardinia contains a variety of ecological, cultural, anthropic and touristic resources that each summer are threatened by wildfires, and represents well the Mediterranean Basin environments and conditions. Wildfire simulations based on the minimum travel time algorithm were used to characterize wildfire exposure and risk transmission in terms of annual burn probability, flame length, structures exposed and type and amount of transmission. We focused on the historical conditions associated with large (>50 ha) and very large (>200 ha) wildfires that occurred in Sardinia in the period 1998–2016, and combined outputs from wildfire simulation modeling with land uses, building footprint locations, weather, and historical ignition data. The outputs were summarized for weather zones, main wind scenarios and land uses. Our study characterized spatial variations in wildfire spread, exposure and risk transmission among and within weather zones and the main winds associated with large events. This work provides a novel quantitative approach to inform wildfire risk management and planning in Mediterranean areas. The proposed methodology can serve as reference for wildfire risk assessment and can be replicated elsewhere. Findings can be used to better understand the spatial dynamics and patterns of wildfire risk and evaluate expected wildfire behavior or transmission potential in Sardinia and neighboring regions.

Novel technological advances in mobile devices and applications can be exploited in wildfire confrontation, enabling end-users to easily conduct several everyday tasks, such as access to data and information, sharing of intelligence and coordination of personnel and vehicles. This work describes an innovative mobile application for wildfire information management that operates on Windows Phone devices and acts as a complementary tool to the web-based version of the AEGIS platform for wildfire prevention and management. Several tasks can be accomplished from the AEGIS App, such as routing, spatial search for closest facilities and firefighting support infrastructures, access to weather data and visualization of fire management data (water sources, gas refill stations, evacuation sites etc.). An innovative feature of AEGIS App is the support of these tasks by a digital assistant for artificial intelligence named Cortana (developed by Microsoft for Windows Phone devices), that allows information utilization through voice commands. The application is to be used by firefighting personnel in Greece and is potentially expected to contribute towards a more sophisticated transferring of information and knowledge between wildfire confrontation operation centers and firefighting units in the field.

Predicting wildfire disasters presents a major challenge to the field of risk science, especially when fires propagate long distances through diverse fuel types and complex terrain. A good example is in the western US where large tracts of public lands routinely experience large fires that spread from remote wildlands into developed areas and cause structure loss and fatalities. In this paper we provide the first comprehensive assessment of where public wildlands potentially contribute wildfire exposure to communities in the 11 western US states. We used simulation modeling to map and characterize the composition of the source landscapes (firesheds) and recipient communities in terms of fuels, fire behavior and forest management suitability. The information was used to build a prototype investment prioritization framework that targets highly exposed communities where forest and fuel management activities are feasible. We found that simulated wildfires ignited on national forests can potentially affect about half of the communities in the western US (2560 out of 5118), with 90% of exposure affecting the top 20% of the communities (n = 516). Firesheds within national forests, defined as areas that have the potential to expose communities to fire, were estimated at 35 million ha (62% of the total national forest area), and were almost three times larger than the affected community lands. Large contiguous areas of wildfire transmission were evident on a number of national forests. Only 22% of the fireshed area is forested, fire-adapted, and lies within land management designations that allow mechanical fuels management. The methods demonstrate how cross-boundary exposure can be factored into prioritizing federal investments in hazardous fuels reduction on national forests in concert with community protection measures. The results can also help scale wildfire governance systems to match the geography of risk from large wildfire events, which augments existing assessments that do not explicitly identify the source of risk to communities.

Α web-based Geographic Information Systems (GIS) platform – named Virtual Fire – for forest fire control has been developed to easily, validly and promptly share and utilize information and tools among firefighting forces. This state-of-the-art system enables fire management professionals to take advantage of GIS capabilities without needing to locally install complex software components. Fire management professionals can locate fire service vehicles and other resources online and in real-time. Fire patrol aircrafts and vehicles may use tracking devices to send their coordinates directly to the platform. Cameras can augment these data by transmitting images of high-risk areas into the graphical interface of the system. Furthermore, the system provides the geographical representation of fire ignition probability and identifies high-risk areas at different local regions daily, based on a high performance computing (HPC) pilot application that runs on Windows HPC Server. Real-time data from remote automatic weather stations and weather maps based on a weather forecasting system provide vital weather data needed for fire prevention and early warning. By using these methods and a variety of fire management information and tools, the end-users are given the ability to design an operational plan to encompass the forest fire, choosing the best ways to put the fire out within the proper recourses and time.

This study investigated the wind characteristics of the island of Lesvos, Greece, with the objective of providing the necessary data for identifying the wind power production capabilities of the island. Weather patterns were examined using weather data from four Remote Automatic Weather Stations. Specific tools were used to produce the necessary windroses, Weibull curves and charts that helped to understand the prevailing wind characteristics. By using the tools of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and the Wind Atlas Analysis and Application Program (WAsP) as the basic calculation platform, a wind map was produced portraying the wind speeds that prevail at a height of 10m above ground level. The results of the analysis were tested and evaluated with measurements from 15 wind turbine sites by creating six alternative scenarios. The optimum scenario was used to investigate the installation of a small wind farm with five wind turbines, of 3 MW total capacity.