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The Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) and its sodium-corrected variant (MELD-Na) have created gender disparities in accessing liver transplantation. We aimed to derive and validate the Gender-Equity Model for liver Allocation (GEMA) and its sodium-corrected variant (GEMA-Na) to amend such inequities.In this cohort study, the GEMA models were derived by replacing creatinine with the Royal Free Hospital glomerular filtration rate (RFH-GFR) within the MELD and MELD-Na formulas, with re-fitting and re-weighting of each component. The new models were trained and internally validated in adults listed for liver transplantation in the UK (2010-20; UK Transplant Registry) using generalised additive multivariable Cox regression, and externally validated in an Australian cohort (1998-2020; Royal Prince Alfred Hospital [Australian National Liver Transplant Unit] and Austin Hospital [Victorian Liver Transplant Unit]). The study comprised 9320 patients: 5762 patients for model training, 1920 patients for internal validation, and 1638 patients for external validation. The primary outcome was mortality or delisting due to clinical deterioration within the first 90 days from listing. Discrimination was assessed by Harrell's concordance statistic.449 (5·8%) of 7682 patients in the UK cohort and 87 (5·3%) of 1638 patients in the Australian cohort died or were delisted because of clinical deterioration within 90 days. GEMA showed improved discrimination in predicting mortality or delisting due to clinical deterioration within the first 90 days after waiting list inclusion compared with MELD (Harrell's concordance statistic 0·752 [95% CI 0·700-0·804] vs 0·712 [0·656-0·769]; p=0·001 in the internal validation group and 0·761 [0·703-0·819] vs 0·739 [0·682-0·796]; p=0·036 in the external validation group), and GEMA-Na showed improved discrimination compared with MELD-Na (0·766 [0·715-0·818] vs 0·742 [0·686-0·797]; p=0·0058 in the internal validation group and 0·774 [0·720-0·827] vs 0·745 [0·690-0·800]; p=0·014 in the external validation group). The discrimination capacity of GEMA-Na was higher in women than in the overall population, both in the internal (0·802 [0·716-0·888]) and external validation cohorts (0·796 [0·698-0·895]). In the pooled validation cohorts, GEMA resulted in a score change of at least 2 points compared with MELD in 1878 (52·8%) of 3558 patients (25·0% upgraded and 27·8% downgraded). GEMA-Na resulted in a score change of at least 2 points compared with MELD-Na in 1836 (51·6%) of 3558 patients (32·3% upgraded and 19·3% downgraded). In the whole cohort, 3725 patients received a transplant within 90 days of being listed. Of these patients, 586 (15·7%) would have been differently prioritised by GEMA compared with MELD; 468 (12·6%) patients would have been differently prioritised by GEMA-Na compared with MELD-Na. One in 15 deaths could potentially be avoided by using GEMA instead of MELD and one in 21 deaths could potentially be avoided by using GEMA-Na instead of MELD-Na.GEMA and GEMA-Na showed improved discrimination and a significant re-classification benefit compared with existing scores, with consistent results in an external validation cohort. Their implementation could save a clinically meaningful number of lives, particularly among women, and could amend current gender inequities in accessing liver transplantation.Junta de Andalucía and EDRF.

Obesity is a growing health problem worldwide. Morbid obesity has been associated with significant barriers to effective thoracic cage compression during cardiopulmonary resuscitation.The BariBoard™ purports to improve adequacy of chest compressions in morbidly obese patients. This study uses a simulation model to evaluate this.This was a prospective blinded randomised-controlled crossover pilot trial using a simulation model of obesity. Participants, recruited from hospital departments and prehospital services, performed 2 minutes of continuous compressions on mannequins modified to emulate a morbidly obese patient. Participants were randomised by coin toss to a sequence of either control/intervention or intervention/control, with the BariBoard™ in the intervention arm. Accelerometers measured chest wall movement during compressions. The primary endpoint was a composite measure of compression adequacy (rate, depth, and recoil). Secondary endpoints comprised the individual components of the composite outcome, as both dichotomous outcomes (adequate vs. inadequate) and continuous variables. All endpoints were adjusted for potential confounders.Of 205 participants recruited, 201 were analysed. There was a significant difference in the primary outcome between the control and intervention arms (13.4% vs. 4.5%, respectively, p = 0.001) and between the control and intervention arms for the secondary endpoints of adequate compression depth (31.3% vs. 15.9%, p lt; 0.001) and recoil (63.7% vs. 41.3%, p lt; 0.001). After adjustment for confounders and interactions, there was no difference in overall efficacy (odds ratio: 0.62, 95% confidence interval: 0.20-1.90, p = 0.40).This pilot study describes the successful assessment of a device using a simulation model of obesity. Within these constraints and after adjustment for confounders, use of the BariBoard ™ did not improve efficacy of chest compressions.

Purpose To investigate the association between sex and illness severity and mortality of ICU patients. Methods We performed systematic searches of MEDLINE and EMBASE for observational studies of adult ICU patients that explicitly examined the association between sex and illness severity or mortality. We used a random effects model to calculate standardised mean differences in illness severity scores and pooled odds ratios for mortality of women compared to men. Results We identified 21 studies with 505,138 participants in total (43.1% women). There was substantial heterogeneity among studies. Only two studies were at low risk of bias overall. At ICU admission, there was a pattern of higher illness severity scores among women (standardised mean difference 0.04, 95% CI -0.01-0.09). Women had higher risk-adjusted mortality than men at ICU discharge (OR 1.25 95% CI 1.03–1.50) and 1 year (OR 1.08, 95% CI 1.02–1.13), however this finding was not robust to sensitivity analysis. Conclusions Women tend to have higher illness severity scores at ICU admission. Women also appear to have higher risk-adjusted mortality than men at ICU discharge and at 1 year. Given the heterogeneity and risk of bias in the existing literature, additional studies are needed to confirm or refute these findings.

Background Frailty is associated with poor outcomes in critical illness. However, it is unclear whether frailty screening on admission to the ICU can be conducted routinely at the population level and whether it has prognostic importance. Research Question Can population-scale frailty screening with the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) be implemented for critically ill adults in Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) and can it identify patients at risk of negative outcomes? Study Design and Methods We conducted a binational prospective cohort study of critically ill adult patients admitted between July 1, 2018, and June 30, 2020, in 175 ICUs in ANZ. We classified frailty with the CFS on admission to the ICU. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality; secondary outcomes were length of stay (LOS), discharge destination, complications (delirium, pressure injury), and duration of survival. Results We included 234,568 critically ill patients; 45,245 (19%) were diagnosed as living with frailty before ICU admission. Patients with vs without frailty had higher in-hospital mortality (16% vs 5%; P Interpretation Large-scale population screening for frailty degree in critical illness was possible and prognostically important, with greater frailty (especially CFS score of ≥ 6) associated with worse outcomes, including among younger patients.

Objective: The accuracy of different non-invasive body temperature measurement methods in intensive care unit (ICU) patients is uncertain. We aimed to study the accuracy of three commonly used methods. Design: Prospective observational study. Setting: ICUs of two tertiary Australian hospitals. Participants: Critically ill patients admitted to the ICU. Interventions: Invasive (intravascular and intra-urinary bladder catheter) and non-invasive (axillary chemical dot, tympanic infrared, and temporal scanner) body temperature measurements were taken at study inclusion and every 4 hours for the following 72 hours. Main outcome measures: Accuracy of non-invasive body temperature measurement methods was assessed by the Bland–Altman approach, accounting for repeated measurements and significant explanatory variables that were identified by regression analysis. Clinical adequacy was set at limits of agreement (LoA) of 1C compared with core temperature. Results: We studied 50 consecutive critically ill patients who were mainly admitted to the ICU after cardiac surgery. From over 375 observations, invasive core temperature (mostly pulmonary artery catheter) ranged from 33.9C to 39C. On average, the LoA between invasive and non-invasive measurements methods were about 3C. The temporal scanner showed the worst performance in estimating core temperature (bias, 0.66C; LoA, 1.23C, +2.55C), followed by tympanic infrared (bias, 0.44C; LoA, 1.73C, +2.61C) and axillary chemical dot methods (bias, 0.32°C; LoA, 1.64C, +2.28C). No methods achieved clinical adequacy even accounting for significant explanatory variables. Conclusions: The axillary chemical dot, tympanic infrared and temporal scanner methods are inaccurate measures of core temperature in ICU patients. These non-invasive methods appeared unreliable for use in ICU patients.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has led to unprecedented demand for ICUs, with the need to triage admissions along with the development of ICU triage criteria. However, how these criteria relate to outcomes in patients already admitted to the ICU is unknown, as is the incremental ICU capacity that triage of these patients might create given existing admission practices. RESEARCH QUESTION: What is the short- and long-term survival of low- vs high-priority patients for ICU admission according to current pandemic triage criteria? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: This study analyzed prospectively collected registry data (2007-2018) in 23 ICUs in Victoria, Australia, with probabilistic linkage with death registries. After excluding elective surgery, admissions were stratified according to existing ICU triage protocol prioritization as low (age ≥ 85 years, or severe chronic illness, or Sequential Organ Failure Assessment [SOFA] score = 0 or ≥ 12), medium (SOFA score = 8-11) or high (SOFA score = 1-7) priority. The primary outcome was long-term survival. Secondary outcomes were in-hospital mortality, ICU length of stay (LOS) and bed-day usage. RESULTS: This study examined 126,687 ICU admissions. After 5 years of follow-up, 1,093 of 3,296 (33%; 95% CI, 32-34) of "low-priority" patients aged ≥ 85 years or with severe chronic illness and 86 of 332 (26%; 95% CI, 24-28) with a SOFA score ≥ 12 were still alive. Sixty-three of 290 (22%; 95% CI, 17-27) of patients in these groups followed up for 10 years were still alive. Together, low-priority patients accounted for 27% of all ICU bed-days and had lower in-hospital mortality (22%) than the high-priority patients (28%). Among nonsurvivors, low-priority admissions had shorter ICU LOS than medium- or high-priority admissions. INTERPRETATION: Current SOFA score or age or severe comorbidity-based ICU pandemic triage protocols exclude patients with a close to 80% hospital survival, a > 30% five-year survival, and 27% of ICU bed-day use. These findings imply the need for stronger evidence-based ICU triage protocols.

Objectives: The 12-item World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule 2.0 (WHODAS 2.0) provides a standardised method for measuring health and disability. This study aimed to determine its reliability, validity and responsiveness and to establish the minimum clinically important difference (MCID) in critically ill patients. Design: Prospective, multicentre cohort study. Setting: Intensive care units of six metropolitan hospitals. Participants: Adults mechanically ventilated for > 24 hours. Main outcome measures: Reliability was assessed by measuring internal consistency. Construct validity was assessed by comparing WHODAS 2.0 scores at 6 months with the EuroQoL visual analogue scale (EQ VAS) and Lawton Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADL) scale scores. Responsiveness was evaluated by assessing change over time, effect sizes, and percentage of patients showing no change. The MCID was calculated using both anchor and distribution-based methods with triangulation of results. Main results: A baseline and 6-month WHODAS 2.0 score were available for 448 patients. The WHODAS 2.0 demonstrated good correlation between items with no evidence of item redundancy. Cronbach α coefficient was 0.91 and average split-half coefficient was 0.91. There was a moderate correlation between the WHODAS 2.0 and the EQ VAS scores (r = 0.72; P < 0.001) and between the WHODAS 2.0 and the Lawton IADL scores (r = 0.66; P < 0.001) at 6 months. The effect sizes for change in the WHODAS 2.0 score from baseline to 3 months and from 3 to 6 months were low. Ceiling effects were not present and floor effects were present at baseline only. The final MCID estimate was 10%. Conclusion: The 12-item WHODAS 2.0 is a reliable, valid and responsive measure of disability in critically ill patients. A change in the total WHODAS 2.0 score of 10% represents the MCID.

Introduction: Fewer women than men are admitted to intensive care units (ICUs) worldwide. Objectives: To quantify the relative contribution of each major diagnostic category to the overall sex balance in ICU admissions in Australia and New Zealand, and to describe changes in the sex balance over time and with patient age. Methods: Retrospective cross-sectional study of Australian and New Zealand ICU admissions recorded in the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society Adult Patient Database between 2005 and 2018. Multivariate logistic regression for the likelihood of female admission considered key explanatory variables: diagnostic category, patient age, admission year, geographic region, hospital type, and planned versus unplanned ICU admission. Results: Overall, 42.3% of 1 616 856 Australian and New Zealand ICU patients were women (99% CI, 42.2–42.4%). 247 988 more men than women were admitted to an ICU during the 14-year study period. There was a sex imbalance in most diagnostic categories: less than 48% women in 15 of 23 diagnostic categories, and greater than 52% women in four diagnostic categories (P < 0.001). Admissions following cardiovascular surgery accounted for over half of the total sex imbalance. The percentage of ICU patients who are women increased linearly from 40.8% in 2005 to 43.6% in 2018 (R2 = 93.1%; P < 0.001). Compared with admission in 2005, the adjusted odds ratio for female admission in 2018 was 1.03 (99% CI, 1.01–1.06). Conclusion: There is a significant sex imbalance in ICU admissions in Australia and New Zealand, widespread across the diagnostic categories. Cardiovascular admissions contribute most to the observed preponderance of men. The proportion of female ICU patients is steadily increasing.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a simple model for the prediction of acute kidney injury (AKI) and renal replacement therapy (RRT) that could be used in clinical or research risk stratification. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis. SETTING: Multi-institutional. PARTICIPANTS: All cardiac surgery patients from September 2016 to December 2018. INTERVENTIONS: Observational. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The study cohort was divided into a development set (75%) and validation set (25%). The following 2 data epochs were used: preoperative data and immediate postoperative data (within 4 h of intensive care unit admission). Univariate statistics were used to identify variables associated with AKI or RRT. Stepwise logistic regression was used to develop a parsimonious model. Model discrimination and calibration were evaluated in the test set. Models were compared with previously published models and with a more comprehensive model developed using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator. The study included 22,731 patients at 33 hospitals. The incidences of AKI (any stage) and RRT for the present analysis were 5,829 patients (25.6%) and 488 patients (2.1%), respectively. Models were developed for AKI, with an area under the receiver operating curve (AU-ROC) of 0.67 and 0.69 preoperatively and postoperatively, respectively. Models for RRT had an AU-ROC of 0.77 and 0.80 preoperatively and postoperatively, respectively. These models contained between 3 and 5 variables. Comparatively, comprehensive least absolute shrinkage and selection operator models contained between 21 and 26 variables, with an AU-ROC of 0.71 and 0.72 for AKI and 0.84 and 0.87 for RRT respectively. CONCLUSION: In the present study, simple, clinically applicable models for predicting AKI and RRT preoperatively and immediate postoperatively were developed. Even though AKI prediction remained poor, RRT prediction was good with a parsimonious model.

Objective: To characterise the assessment and management of delirium in patients admitted to intensive care units (ICUs) in Australia and New Zealand. Methods: We conducted a multicentre observational point prevalence study across 44 adult Australian and New Zealand ICUs. Data were extracted for all patients in the ICU in terms of assessment and treatment of delirium. ICU-level data were collected regarding the use of explicit protocols related to delirium. Results: We studied 627 patients, with 54% (336/627) having at least one delirium screening assessment performed. The Confusion Assessment Method for the ICU (CAM-ICU) was the most frequently used tool (88%, 296/336). Of patients assessed, 20% (68) were identified to have delirium. Eighteen per cent (111) of patients were administered a drug to manage delirium, with 41% (46) of those receiving a drug having no recorded assessment for delirium on that day. Of the drugs used to treat delirium, quetiapine was the most frequently administered. Physical restraints were applied to 8% (48/626) of patients, but only 17% (8/48) of such patients had been diagnosed with delirium. Most physically restrained patients either did not have delirium diagnosed (31%, 15/48) or had no formal assessment recorded (52%, 25/48) on that day. Conclusions: On the study day, more than 50% of patients had a delirium screening assessment performed, with 20% of screened patients deemed to have delirium. Drugs that are prescribed to treat delirium and physical restraints were frequently used in the absence of delirium or the formal assessment for its presence.

Aim The effect of conservative versus liberal oxygen therapy on mortality rates in post cardiac arrest patients is uncertain. Methods We undertook an individual patient data meta-analysis of patients randomised in clinical trials to conservative or liberal oxygen therapy after a cardiac arrest. The primary end point was mortality at last follow-up. Results Individual level patient data were obtained from seven randomised clinical trials with a total of 429 trial participants included. Four trials enrolled patients in the pre-hospital period. Of these, two provided protocol-directed oxygen therapy for 60 min, one provided it until the patient was handed over to the emergency department staff, and one provided it for a total of 72 h or until the patient was extubated. Three trials enrolled patients after intensive care unit (ICU) admission and generally continued protocolised oxygen therapy for a longer period, often until ICU discharge. A total of 90 of 221 patients (40.7%) assigned to conservative oxygen therapy and 103 of 206 patients (50%) assigned to liberal oxygen therapy had died by this last point of follow-up; absolute difference; odds ratio (OR) adjusted for study only; 0.67; 95% CI 0.45 to 0.99; P = 0.045; adjusted OR, 0.58; 95% CI 0.35 to 0.96; P = 0.04. Conclusion Conservative oxygen therapy was associated with a statistically significant reduction in mortality at last follow-up compared to liberal oxygen therapy but the certainty of available evidence was low or very low due to bias, imprecision, and indirectness. PROSPERO registration number CRD42019138931.

Background Over the last two decades, technological advancements in the delivery of extra corporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) have seen its use broaden and results improve. However, in the post cardiotomy ECMO patient group, survival remains very poor without significant improvements over the last two decades. Our study aims to report on the Australian experience, with the intention of providing background data for the formation of guidelines in the future. Methods Retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data from the Australian and New Zealand Society of Cardiothoracic Surgeons (ANZSCTS) Database was performed. The ANZSCTS database captures at least 60% of cardiac surgical data in Australia, annually. Data was collected on adult patients who received ECMO post cardiotomy from September 2016 to November 2017 inclusive. Transplant and primary cardiomyopathy patients were excluded. Results Of the 16,605 adult patients undergoing cardiac surgery in the 15-month period of the study, 87 patients required post cardiotomy ECMO (0.52%). The average age of the entire cohort was 56 years. Overall survival to discharge was 43.7% (n=38). Multivariable logistic regression analysis demonstrated that multiorgan failure (MOF), increasing age and longer cardiopulmonary bypass time were significant predictors of in hospital mortality. Conclusions Post cardiotomy ECMO support is an uncommon condition. Survival in this study appears to be better than historical reports. Identification of poor prognostic indicators in this study may help inform the development of guidelines for the most appropriate use of this support modality.

OBJECTIVE: Pleural effusions in the intensive care unit (ICU) are clinically important. However, there is limited information regarding effusions in such patients. We aimed to estimate the prevalence, patient characteristics, mortality, effusion duration, radiological resolution, drainage, and reaccumulation rates of pleural effusions in ICU patients. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study assessed all patients admitted to a tertiary hospital ICU from 1 January to 31 December 2015 with a chest x-ray report of pleural effusion. All chest x-ray reports were reviewed and data were combined with an established clinical ICU database. Statistical analysis of the combined dataset was performed. RESULTS: Among 2094 patients admitted to the ICU, 566 (27%) had pleural effusions diagnosed by chest x-ray. The effusion median duration was 3 days (IQR, 1–5 days). Radiologically documented clearance of the effusion occurred in 243 patients (43%) and drainage was performed in 52 patients (9%). Among patients with effusion clearance, 80 (33%) reaccumulated the effusion. Drainage was more common in patients who experienced reaccumulation (19% v 7%; P = 0.004). Overall, 89 patients (16%) died, with 20% mortality among those with reaccumulation versus 9% among patients without reaccumulation (P = 0.037). CONCLUSION: Pleural effusions are common in ICU patients and drainage is infrequent. One-third of effusions reaccumulate, even after drainage, and one in six patients with an effusion die in hospital. This information helps clinicians estimate resolution rates, advantages and disadvantages of effusion drainage, and overall prognosis.

To compare the effects of fluid bolus therapy using 20% albumin versus crystalloid on fluid balance, hemodynamic parameters, and intensive care unit (ICU) treatment effects in post-cardiac surgery patients.Sequential period open-label pilot study.University teaching hospital.One hundred adult cardiac surgery patients who were prescribed fluid bolus therapy to correct hypotension or perceived hypovolemia or to optimize cardiac index during the first 24 hours in the ICU.The first 50 patients were treated with crystalloid fluid bolus therapy in the first period (control), and 50 patients with up to 2 treatments of 100 mL of 20% albumin fluid bolus therapy in the second period (intervention), followed by crystalloid therapy if needed.Demographic characteristics were similar at baseline. The intervention was associated with a less positive median fluid balance in the first 24 hours (albumin: 1,100 [650-1,960] v crystalloid: 1,970 [1,430-2,550] p = 0.001), fewer episodes of fluid bolus therapy (3 [2-5] v 5 [4-7]; p0.0001) and a lesser volume of fluid bolus therapy (700 [200-1,450] v 1,500 mL/24 h [1,100-2,250]; p0.0001). The intervention also was associated with a decreased median overall dose of norepinephrine in the first 24 hours of ICU stay (19 [0-52] v 47 µg/kg/24 hours [0-134]; p = 0.025) and shorter median time to cessation of norepinephrine (17 [5-28] v 28 hours [20-48]; p = 0.002).Post-cardiac surgery fluid bolus therapy with 20% albumin when compared with crystalloid fluid resulted in less positive fluid balance as well as several hemodynamic and potential ICU treatment advantages.

Background Pain is a common stressor for ICU patients, necessitating routine assessment. For patients who are unable to communicate, self-report tools are unsuitable, and the use of an observational tool is required to assess pain appropriately. The Critical Care Pain Observation Tool (CPOT) is the most reliable tool currently available to assess pain in these patients. We investigated whether the implementation of the CPOT in one Australian ICU could increase frequency of appropriate pain assessments, and if this would affect the administration of analgesia and sedation. Methods In this before and after study, we first performed a retrospective chart audit on 441 adult ICU patient charts, over 49 days. Data collected included frequency and type of pain assessments, sedation and analgesia administered, communication and CAM-ICU status, and bedside nurse-perceived pain. During the implementation phase, new policy and guideline documents were released, and ICU charts were redesigned to incorporate the CPOT. All nursing staff attended an education session on pain assessment and correct use of the CPOT. The chart audit was repeated, capturing 344 charts over 43 days. Results Mean total assessments in 24 hours increased from 7.2 to 7.9 for communicative, 3.0 to 8.9 for non-communicative, and 5.1 to 9.1 for transitioning patients. For non-communicative patients there was a significant increase in observational assessments including the CPOT (1.7 to 8.3), and a decrease in inappropriate use of self-report tools (1.3 to 0.2). We also observed significant increases in administration of paracetamol, opiates, propofol, patient-controlled analgesia, modified-release opiates, and neuropathic pain agents. Conclusions Implementation of the CPOT using standardised education and resources led to increased frequency of pain assessment, particularly for non-communicative patients. Appropriate observational assessments were also more frequently used for these patients. Analgesic administration generally increased, as did the use of propofol.

Background There is a lack of knowledge about tasks intensive care unit liaison nurses (ICU LNs) perform during patient review, despite this role operating in at least 31 acute care hospitals in Australia. Objectives To evaluate the tasks that ICU LNs perform during patient review in the following referral subcategories: review after ICU discharge, rapid response team (RRT) review, and ward referral. Methods A 2-month prospective observational study using standardised case report forms to collect data on patients reviewed by ICU LNs in 20 Australian hospitals was conducted. Results From 3799 patients screened, 3542 were included, among whom 1933 (54.6%) were men, and the mean (standard deviation) age was 63 (19.4) years. The admitting units were surgical 1765 (49.8%) and medical 1696 (47.9%), and the breakdown of referral types were routine review after ICU discharge (1732; 47.9%), RRT review (1208; 34.1%), and ward referral (602; 17.0%). Patients subject to ward and RRT reviews were older, more likely to be medical admissions with less favourable vital signs on the initial review, and less likely to have repeat reviews. Of note, ward reviews were more likely to receive palliative care. Intensive care liaison nurse–initiated medication prescription and investigation ordering was uncommon. The most common interventions included consultation with medical staff, bedside education, adjusting oxygen flow and patient position, and directing the change in frequency of vital sign measurement. In-hospital mortality was lower in patients reviewed after ICU discharge (2.3%), compared with those after RRT review (2.8%) and ward referral (4.4%). Conclusions Most patients were reviewed after ICU discharge or in the context of the RRT. RRT and ward patients were less physiologically stable and more likely to die in hospital. The most common interventions performed by the ICU LN were nontechnical skills including clinical education, consultation with medical staff, and changes to vital sign frequency. Finally, the most common medication therapies administered related to intravenous therapy and electrolyte administration.

To compare the effect of conservative vs. liberal oxygen therapy in mechanically ventilated adults in the intensive care unit (ICU) with non-hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy (HIE) acute brain pathologies.Post-hoc analysis of data from 217 patients with non-HIE acute brain pathologies included in the ICU Randomized Trial Comparing Two Approaches to OXygen therapy (ICU-ROX).Patients allocated to conservative oxygen spent less time with oxygen saturation ≥ 97% (50.5 [interquartile range (IQR), 18.5-119] vs. 82 h [IQR, 38-164], absolute difference, -31.5 h; 95%CI, -59.6 to -3.4). At 180 days, 38 of 110 conservative oxygen patients (34.5%) and 28 of 104 liberal oxygen patients (26.9%) had died (absolute difference, 7.6 percentage points; 95%CI, -4.7 to 19.9 percentage points; P = 0.23; interaction P = 0.02 for non-HIE acute brain pathologies vs. HIE; interaction P = 0.53 for non-HIE acute brain pathologies vs. non-neurological conditions).In this post-hoc analysis, patients admitted to the ICU with non-HIE acute brain pathologies treated with conservative oxygen therapy did not have significantly lower mortality than those treated with liberal oxygen. A trial with adequate statistical power is needed to determine whether our day 180 mortality point estimate of treatment effect favoring liberal oxygen therapy indicates a true effect.

Gut-associated lymphoid tissues (GALT) serve as key priming sites for intestinal adaptive immune responses. Most of our understanding of GALT function and development arises from studies in mice. However, the diversity, structure and cellular composition of GALT differs markedly between mammalian species and the developmental window in which distinct GALT structures develop in large mammals remains poorly understood. Given the importance of pigs as models of human disease, as well as their role in livestock production, we adapted a recently developed protocol for the isolation of human GALT to assess the diversity, development and immune composition of large intestinal GALT in neonatal and adult pigs. We demonstrate that the large intestine of adult pigs contains two major GALT types; multifollicular submucosal GALT that we term submucosal lymphoid clusters (SLC) which develop prenatally, and as yet undescribed mucosal isolated lymphoid follicles (M-ILF), which arise after birth. Using confocal laser microscopy and flow cytometry, we additionally assess the microanatomy and lymphocyte composition of SLC and M-ILF, compare them to jejunal Peyer's patches (PP), and describe the maturation of these structures. Collectively, our results provide a deeper understanding of the diversity and development of GALT within the porcine large intestine.

Background A threshold Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) of 5 (indicating mild frailty) has been proposed to guide ICU admission for UK patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia. However, the impact of frailty on mortality with (non-COVID-19) pneumonia in critical illness is unknown. We examined the triage utility of the CFS in patients with pneumonia requiring ICU. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study of adult patients admitted with pneumonia to 170 ICUs in Australia and New Zealand from January 1, 2018 to September 31, 2019. We classified patients as: non-frail (CFS 1–4) frail (CFS 5–8), mild/moderately frail (CFS 5–6),and severe/very severely frail (CFS 7–8). We evaluated mortality (primary outcome) adjusting for site, age, sex, mechanical ventilation, pneumonia type and illness severity. We also compared the proportion of ICU bed-days occupied between frailty categories. Results 1852/5607 (33%) patients were classified as frail, including1291/3056 (42%) of patients aged >65 yr, who would potentially be excluded from ICU admission under UK-based COVID-19 triage guidelines. Only severe/very severe frailty scores were associated with mortality (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] for CFS=7: 3.2; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.3–7.8; CFS=8 [aOR: 7.2; 95% CI: 2.6–20.0]). These patients accounted for 7% of ICU bed days. Vulnerability (CFS=4) and mild frailty (CFS=5) were associated with a similar mortality risk (CFS=4 [OR: 1.6; 95% CI: 0.7–3.8]; CFS=5 [OR: 1.6; 95% CI: 0.7–3.9]). Conclusions Patients with severe and very severe frailty account for relatively few ICU bed days as a result of pneumonia, whilst adjusted mortality analysis indicated little difference in risk between patients in vulnerable, mild, and moderate frailty categories. These data do not support CFS ≥5 to guide ICU admission for pneumonia.

Reliable estimates of the long-term outcomes of acute kidney injury (AKI) are needed to inform clinical practice and guide allocation of health care resources. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to quantify the association between AKI and chronic kidney disease (CKD), end-stage kidney disease (ESKD), and death. Systematic searches were performed through EMBASE, MEDLINE, and grey literature sources to identify cohort studies in hospitalized adults that used standardized definitions for AKI, included a non-exposed comparator, and followed patients for at least 1 year. Risk of bias was assessed by the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Random effects meta-analyses were performed to pool risk estimates; subgroup, sensitivity, and meta-regression analyses were used to investigate heterogeneity. Of 4973 citations, 82 studies (comprising 2,017,437 participants) were eligible for inclusion. Common sources of bias included incomplete reporting of outcome data, missing biochemical values, and inadequate adjustment for confounders. Individuals with AKI were at increased risk of new or progressive CKD (HR 2.67, 95% CI 1.99-3.58; 17.76 versus 7.59 cases per 100 person-years), ESKD (HR 4.81, 95% CI 3.04-7.62; 0.47 versus 0.08 cases per 100 person-years), and death (HR 1.80, 95% CI 1.61-2.02; 13.19 versus 7.26 deaths per 100 person-years). A gradient of risk across increasing AKI stages was demonstrated for all outcomes. For mortality, the magnitude of risk was also modified by clinical setting, baseline kidney function, diabetes, and coronary heart disease. These findings establish the poor long-term outcomes of AKI while highlighting the importance of injury severity and clinical setting in the estimation of risk.

Introduction Multiple rib fractures have been shown to reduce quality of life both in the short and long term. Treatment of rib fractures with operative fixation reduces ventilator requirements, intensive care unit stay, and pulmonary complications in flail chest patients but has not been shown to improve quality of life in comparative studies to date. We therefore wanted to analyse a large cohort of multiple fractured rib trauma patients to see if rib fixation improved their quality of life. Methods Retrospective review (January 2012 - April 2015) of prospectively collected data on 1482 consecutive major trauma patients admitted to The Alfred Hospital with rib fractures. The main outcome measures were Quality of Life over 24 months post injury assessed using the Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended (GOSErate) and Short Form (SF12) health assessment forms and a pain questionnaire. Results 67 (4.5%) patients underwent rib fixation and were older, with a higher incidence of flail chest injury, and higher AIS and ISS scores than the remainder of the cohort. Rib fixation provided no benefit in pain, SF-12 or GOSErate scores over 24 months post injury. Conclusions This study has not been able to demonstrate any quality of life benefit of rib fixation over 24 months post injury in patients with major trauma.

Summary Background The amount of energy required to improve clinical outcomes in critically ill adults is unknown. Objective The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to evaluate the impact of near target energy delivery to critically ill adults on mortality and other clinically relevant outcomes. Design Following PRISMA guidelines, MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINHAL and the Cochrane Library were searched for randomised controlled trials evaluating nutrition interventions in adult critical care populations. Included studies compared delivery of ≥80% of predicted energy requirements (near target) from enteral and/or parenteral nutrition to 50%) when 3 or more studies reported the same outcome. Outcomes are presented as risk ratio (RR), 95% confidence interval (CI). Results Ten trials with 3155 participants were included. Mortality was unaffected by the intervention (RR 1.02, 95% CI 0.81, 1.27, p = 0.89, I2 = 25%). Evaluation of studies of higher quality and low risk of bias did not alter the mortality inference (3 trials, 352 participants, RR 0.83, 95% CI 0.49, 1.40, p = 0.19, I2 = 39%). The quality of evidence across outcomes was very low. Conclusions The delivery of near target energy when compared to standard care in adult critically ill patients was not associated with an effect on mortality. Because the quality of the evidence across outcomes was very low there is considerable uncertainty surrounding this estimate. This has implications for clinical utility of the evidence within the included reviews.

Objectives Cardiac surgical risk models predict mortality preoperatively, whereas intensive care unit (ICU) models predict mortality postoperatively. Finding a large difference between the 2 (an acute risk change [ARC]) may reflect an alteration in the status of the patient related to the surgery. An adverse ARC was associated with morbidity and mortality in an Australian population. The aims of this study were to validate ARC in a UK population and to investigate the possible mechanisms behind ARC. Design This was a retrospective case–control study. Setting Single, high-volume cardiothoracic hospital. Participants Data from 4,842 cardiac surgical patients were collected between 2013 and 2015. Interventions None. Measurements and main results EuroSCORE was recalibrated to each preceding year’s data. ARC was defined as postoperative minus preoperative percentage mortality risk. Association among ARC, morbidity, and mortality was tested. Cases with large adverse ARC (greater than +15%) were compared with cases with large favorable ARC (less than –10%) with regard to intraoperative adverse events, unmeasured patient risk factors, and postoperative events. Adverse ARC was associated with hospital mortality, ICU stay, ICU readmission, renal support, prolonged intubation and return to the operating room (p Conclusion ARC is a readily available and sensitive marker that correlates strongly with morbidity and mortality. The use of ARC in local and national quality monitoring could identify areas for improvement of the quality of cardiac surgical care.

Purpose To investigate the relationship between dysglycemia and hospital mortality in patients with and without a preadmission diagnosis of insulin treated diabetes mellitus (ITDM). Materials and methods An observational multicentre cohort study using the ANZICS-APD database on adult patients admitted to ICU with sepsis between January 1st 2006 and December 31st 2015. Four domains of dysglycemia were investigated (highest, mean and lowest blood glucose levels and glycemic variability: the absolute difference between the highest and lowest level). The association between a preadmission diagnosis of ITDM and hospital mortality in each domain was analysed. Results We studied 90,644 septic patients including 5127 patients with ITDM. We found that septic ICU patients with ITDM have lower adjusted hospital mortality with higher peak blood glucose levels in the first 24 h while non-ITDM patients have increased mortality (interaction p 0.012). We found that this significant difference was replicated when assessing glycemic variability (interaction p 0.048). Conclusions Septic patients with a pre-existing diagnosis of ITDM show a different relationship between hospital mortality and highest glucose levels and glycemic variability in the first 24 h than those without ITDM. These findings provide a rationale for an ITDM-specific approach to the management of dysglycemia.

There are limited data on the characteristics, incidence, and mortality of patients with myasthenia gravis (MG) admitted to the ICU.To study the epidemiology, characteristics and outcome of patients with MG in Australian and New Zealand (ANZ) ICUs over a decade.We performed a retrospective observational, cross sectional study of data from the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society (ANZICS) Adult Patient Database (APD). We collected data on all adult patients admitted with a primary diagnosis of MG to 159 Australian and 19 New Zealand ICUs between January 1, 2005 and December 31, 2015.We extracted detailed relevant data and performed statistical assessment.We identified 245 patients admitted to ICU with the primary diagnosis of MG, with an incidence increasing from 1 to 2.5 per thousand ICU admissions (P0.0001) and from 1 to 2.2 per million people (P=0.02). Mean age was 60years with more patients being female (53.7% vs 47.3%) and 91 (37.1%) patients received mechanical ventilation. Hospital mortality occurred in 13 (5.3%) patients with a mortality rate lower than in other ICU patients.In ANZ, the ICU and population incidence of MG has increased over the last decade. However, its mortality rate was low.

Background Tracheostomy is a relatively common procedure in Intensive Care Unit (ICU) patients. Aims To study the patient characteristics, incidence, technique, outcomes and prediction of tracheostomy in the State of Victoria, Australia. Methods We used data from the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society Adult Patient Database (ANZICS APD) and the Victorian Admitted Episode Dataset (VAED) to identify and match patients who had received a tracheostomy from 2004 to 2014. Results Between 1st January 2004 and 30th June 2014, 9750 patients received a tracheostomy with 7670 available for matching and 6010 (78.4%) successfully matched. Of the matched tracheostomy patients, median age was 61 years, median APACHE IIIJ score was 66 and overall hospital mortality was 21%. The incidence of tracheostomy almost halved over the decade with more than half of tracheostomies (53.5%) being percutaneous. Hospital mortality of patients receiving a tracheostomy decreased from 26.5% in 2004 to 16.5% in 2014 by an average decrease of 6%/year. No robust model could be developed to predict tracheostomy. Conclusion The incidence of tracheostomy and the adjusted mortality rate of patients who received a tracheostomy have significantly decreased over a decade. Day of admission information could not be used to predict subsequent tracheostomy.

This pilot study aimed to characterise the haemodynamic effect of 1L of IV normal saline (NS) administered as a rapid versus slow infusion on cardiac output (CO), heart rate (HR), systemic blood pressures, and carotid blood flow in six healthy volunteers.Six healthy male volunteers aged 18-65years were randomized to receive 1L NS given over 30min or 120min. On a subsequent study session the alternate fluid regimen was administered. Haemodynamic data was gathered using a non-invasive finger arterial pressure monitor (Nexfin®), echocardiography and carotid duplex sonography. Time to micturition and urine volume was also assessed.Compared to baseline, rapid infusion of 1L of saline over 30min produced a fall in Nexfin®-measured CO by 0.62L/min (p0.001), whereas there was a marginal but significant increase during infusion of 1L NS over 120min of 0.02L/min (p0.001). This effect was mirrored by changes in HR and blood pressure (BP) (p0.001). There were no significant changes in carotid blood flow, time to micturition, or urine volume produced.Slower infusion of 1L NS in healthy male volunteers produced a greater increase in CO, HR and BP than rapid infusion.

Fibrinogen may be reduced following traumatic injury due to loss from haemorrhage, increased consumption and reduced synthesis. In the absence of clinical trials, guidelines for fibrinogen replacement are based on expert opinion and vary internationally. We aimed to determine prevalence and predictors of low fibrinogen on admission in major trauma patients and investigate association of fibrinogen levels with patient outcomes.Data on all major trauma patients (January 2007-July 2011) identified through a prospective statewide trauma registry in Victoria, Australia were linked with laboratory and transfusion data. Major trauma included any of the following: death after injury, injury severity score (ISS)15, admission to intensive care unit requiring mechanical ventilation, or urgent surgery for intrathoracic, intracranial, intra-abdominal procedures or fixation of pelvic or spinal fractures. Associations between initial fibrinogen level and in-hospital mortality were analysed using multiple logistic regression.Of 4773 patients identified, 114 (2.4%) had fibrinogen less than 1g/L, 283 (5.9%) 1.0-1.5g/L, 617 (12.9%) 1.6-1.9g/L, 3024 (63.4%) 2-4g/L and 735 (15%) 4g/L. Median fibrinogen was 2.6g/L (interquartile range 2.1-3.4). After adjusting for age, gender, ISS, injury type, pH, temperature, Glasgow Coma Score (GCS), initial international normalised ratio and platelet count, the lowest fibrinogen categories, compared with normal range, were associated with increased in-hospital mortality (adjusted odds ratio [OR] for less than 1g/L 3.28 [95% CI 1.71-6.28, p0.01], 1-1.5g/L adjusted OR 2.08 [95% CI 1.36-3.16, p0.01] and 1.6-1.9g/L adjusted OR 1.39 [95% CI 0.97-2.00, p=0.08]). Predictors of initial fibrinogen1.5g/L were younger age, lower GCS, systolic blood pressure90mmHg, chest decompression, penetrating injury, ISS25 and lower pH and temperature.Initial fibrinogen levels less than the normal range are independently associated with higher in-hospital mortality in major trauma patients. Future studies are warranted to investigate whether earlier and/or greater fibrinogen replacement improves clinical outcomes.

We use de-identified data from Facebook to construct a new and publicly available measure of the pairwise social connectedness between 170 countries and 332 European regions. We find that two countries trade more when they are more socially connected, especially for goods where information frictions may be large. The social connections that predict trade in specific products are those between the regions where the product is produced in the exporting country and the regions where it is used in the importing country. Once we control for social connectedness, the estimated effects of geographic distance and country borders on trade decline substantially.

Background With improvements in short-term mortality after cardiac surgery, the sensitivity of the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) as a performance-monitoring tool has declined. We assessed acute risk change (ARC) as a new and potentially more sensitive metric to differentiate overall cardiac surgical unit performance. Methods Retrospective analysis of the Australian and New Zealand Society of Cardiac and Thoracic Surgeons database and Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society Adult Patient Database was performed. The 16 656 patients who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting or cardiac valve procedures during a 4 yr period were included. The ARC was generated using the change between preoperative and postoperative probability of death. Outlier institutions were those with higher (outside 99.8% confidence intervals) ARC or SMR on annual and 4 yr funnel plots. Outliers were grouped and compared with non-outliers for baseline characteristics, intraoperative events, and postoperative morbidity. Results No outliers were identified using SMR. Two outliers were identified using ARC. Outliers had higher rates of new renal failure (5.7 vs 4.5%, P=0.017), stroke (1.6 vs 0.9%, P=0.001), reoperation (9 vs 6.0%, P

Summary Background Critical care physicians recognise persistent critical illness as a specific syndrome, yet few data exist for the timing of the transition from acute to persistent critical illness. Defining the onset of persistent critical illness as the time at which diagnosis and illness severity at intensive care unit (ICU) arrival no longer predict outcome better than do simple pre-ICU patient characteristics, we measured the timing of this onset at a population level in Australia and New Zealand, and the variation therein, and assessed the characteristics, burden of care, and hospital outcomes of patients with persistent critical illness. Methods In this retrospective, population-based, observational study, we used data for ICU admission in Australia and New Zealand from the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society Adult Patient Database. We included all patients older than 16 years of age admitted to a participating ICU. We excluded patients transferred from another hospital and those admitted to an ICU for palliative care or awaiting organ donation. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Using statistical methods in evenly split development and validation samples for risk score development, we examined the ability of characteristics to predict in-hospital mortality. Findings Between Jan, 2000, and Dec, 2014, we studied 1 028 235 critically ill patients from 182 ICUs across Australia and New Zealand. Among patients still in an ICU, admission diagnosis and physiological derangements, which accurately predicted outcome on admission (area under the receiver operating characteristics curve 0·898 [95% CI 0·897–0·899] in the validation cohort), progressively lost their predictive ability and no longer predicted outcome more accurately than did simple antecedent patient characteristics (eg, age, sex, or chronic health status) after 10 days in the ICU, thus empirically defining the onset of persistent critical illness. This transition occurred between day 7 and day 22 across diagnosis-based subgroups and between day 6 and day 15 across risk-of-death-based subgroups. Cases of persistent critical illness accounted for only 51 509 (5·0%) of the 1 028 235 patients admitted to an ICU, but for 1 029 345 (32·8%) of 3 138 432 ICU bed-days and 2 197 108 (14·7%) of 14 961 693 hospital bed-days. Overall, 12 625 (24·5%) of 51 509 patients with persistent critical illness died and only 23 968 (46·5%) of 51 509 were discharged home. Interpretation Onset of persistent critical illness can be empirically measured at a population level. Patients with this condition consume vast resources, have high mortality, have much less chance of returning home than do typical ICU patients, and require dedicated future research. ICU clinicians should be aware that the risk of in-hospital mortality can change quickly over the first 2 weeks of an ICU course and be sure to incorporate such changes in their decision making and prognostication. Funding None.

Background In intensive care observational studies, hypercapnia after cardiac arrest (CA) is independently associated with improved neurological outcome. However, the safety and feasibility of delivering targeted therapeutic mild hypercapnia (TTMH) for such patients is untested. Methods In a phase II safety and feasibility multi-centre, randomised controlled trial, we allocated ICU patients after CA to 24h of targeted normocapnia (TN) (PaCO 2 35–45mmHg) or TTMH (PaCO 2 50–55mmHg). The primary outcome was serum neuron specific enolase (NSE) and S100b protein concentrations over the first 72h assessed in the first 50 patients surviving to day three. Secondary end-points included global measure of function assessment at six months and mortality for all patients. Results We enrolled 86 patients. Their median age was 61 years (58, 64 years) and 66 (79%) were male. Of these, 50 patients (58%) survived to day three for full biomarker assessment. NSE concentrations increased in the TTMH group ( p =0.02) and TN group ( p =0.005) over time, with the increase being significantly more pronounced in the TN group ( p (interaction)=0.04). S100b concentrations decreased over time in the TTMH group ( p p =0.68). However, the S100b change over time did not differ between the groups ( p (interaction)=0.23). At six months, 23 (59%) TTMH patients had good functional recovery compared with 18 (46%) TN patients. Hospital mortality occurred in 11 (26%) TTMH patients and 15 (37%) TN patients ( p =0.31). Conclusions In CA patients admitted to the ICU, TTMH was feasible, appeared safe and attenuated the release of NSE compared with TN. These findings justify further investigation of this novel treatment.

We use de-identified and aggregated data from Facebook to explore the spatial structure of social networks in the New York metro area. We find that a substantial share of urban residents’ connections are to individuals who are located nearby. We also highlight the importance of transportation infrastructure in shaping urban social networks by showing that social connectedness declines faster in travel time and travel cost than it does in geographic distance. We find that areas that are more socially connected with each other have stronger commuting flows, even after controlling for geographic distance and ease of travel. We also document significant heterogeneity in the geographic breadth of social networks across New York zip codes, and show that this heterogeneity correlates with access to public transit. Zip codes with geographically broader social networks also have higher incomes, higher education levels, and more high-quality entrepreneurial activity. We also explore the social connections between New York zip codes and foreign countries, and highlight how these are related to past migration movements.

We use de-identified data from Facebook to study the nature of peer effects in the market for cell phones. To identify peer effects, we exploit variation in friends' new phone acquisitions resulting from random phone losses. A new phone purchase by a friend has a large and persistent effect on an individual's own demand for phones of the same brand. While peer effects increase the overall demand for phones, a friend's purchase of a particular phone brand can reduce an individual's own demand for phones from competing brands, in particular if they are running on a different operating system. (JEL C45, D12, L63, M31, Z13)

Summary Background Rapid Response Team (RRT) calls can often occur within 24h of hospital admission to a general ward. We seek to determine whether it is possible to identify these patients before there is a significant clinical deterioration. Methods Retrospective case–controlled study comparing patient characteristics, vital signs, and hospital outcomes in patients triggering RRT activation within 24h of ED admission (cases) with matched ED admissions not receiving a RRT call (controls). Results Over 12 months, there were 154 early RRT calls. Compared with controls, cases had a higher heart rate (HR) at triage (92 vs. 84beats/min; p =0.008); after 3h in the ED (91 vs. 80beats/min; p =0.0007); and at ED discharge (91 vs. 81beats/min; p =0.0005). Respiratory rate (RR) was also higher at triage (21.2 vs. 19.2breaths/min; p =0.001). On multiple variable analysis, RR at triage and HR before ward transfer predicted early RRT activation: OR 1.07 [95% CI 1.02–1.12] for each 1breath/min increase in RR; and 1.02 [95% CI 1.002–1.030] for each beat/minute increase in HR, respectively. Study patients required transfer to the intensive care in approximately 20% of cases and also had a greater mortality: (21% vs. 6%; OR 4.65 [95% CI 1.86–11.65]; p =0.0003) compared with controls. Conclusions Patients that trigger RRT calls within 24h of admission have a fourfold increase in risk of in-hospital mortality. Such patients may be identified by greater tachycardia and tachypnoea in the ED.

International relations scholars frequently use roll-call votes on resolutions in the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) to measure similarity in the foreign policy ideologies of states. They then correlate those measures with consequential outcomes, such as development lending, trade, or military disputes. Dynamic ideal point models of UNGA voting thus far have been restricted to a single dimension. We examine the existence of a stable, important, and interpretable second dimension underlying contestation in the UN. From the mid-1960s to the mid-1980s, North–South conflict constitutes a stable second dimension, shaped heavily by the agenda-setting powers of the so-called Non-aligned Movement and the Group of 77. In the periods before and after, the second dimension neither is stable nor easily interpretable, though it is sometimes important. We suggest that in most applications, our original one-dimensional estimates have conceptual advantages with minimal losses in explanatory value. We illustrate that conclusion with an analysis that correlates ideal point changes with militarized interstate disputes. Yet, our findings also suggest that scholars interested in specific issues, such as the Middle East, human rights, or arms control, might benefit from more specifically tailored ideal point estimates.

Decision makers in health, public policy, technology, and social science are increasingly interested in going beyond ‘one-size-fits-all’ policies to personalized ones. Thus, they are faced with the problem of estimating heterogeneous causal effects. Unfortunately, estimating heterogeneous effects from randomized data requires large amounts of statistical power and while observational data is often available in much larger quantities the presence of unobserved confounders can make using estimates derived from it highly suspect. We show that under some assumptions estimated heterogeneous treatment effects from observational data can preserve the rank ordering of the true heterogeneous causal effects. Such an approach is useful when observational data is large, the set of features is high-dimensional, and our priors about feature importance are weak. We probe the effectiveness of our approach in simulations and show a real-world example in a large-scale recommendations problem.

Introduction Rib fractures are a common injury presenting to major trauma centres and community hospitals. Aside from the acute impact of rib fracture injury, longer-term morbidity of pain, disability and deformity have been described. Despite this, the mainstay of management for the vast majority of rib fracture injuries remains supportive only with analgesia and where required respiratory support. This study aimed to document the long-term quality of life in a cohort of major trauma patients with rib fracture injury over 24 months. Methods Retrospective review (July 2006–July 2011) of 397 major trauma patients admitted to The Alfred Hospital with rib fractures and not treated with operative rib fixation. The main outcome measures were quality of life over 24 months post injury assessed using the Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended and SF12 health assessment forms and a pain questionnaire. Results Assessment over 24 months of major trauma patients with multiple rib fractures demonstrated significantly lower quality of life compared with published Australian norms at all time points measured. Return to work rates were poor with only 71% of those who were working prior to their accident, returning to any work. Conclusions This study demonstrates a significant reduction in quality of life for rib fracture patients requiring admission to hospital, which does not return to the level of Australian norms for at least two years.

Recurrent laryngeal nerve (RLN) palsy is a devastating complication of thyroidectomy. Although neurapraxia is thought to be the most common cause, the underlying mechanisms are poorly understood. The objectives of this study were to examine the differential palsy rates between the left and right RLNs, and the role of intraoperative nerve swelling as a risk factor of postoperative palsy.Thyroidectomy data were collected, including demographics, change in RLN diameter, and RLN electromyographic (EMG) reading. Left and right RLNs, as well as bilateral and unilateral subgroup analyses were performed.A total of 5,334 RLNs were at risk in 3,408 thyroidectomies in this study. The overall RLN palsy rate was 1.5%, greater on the right side than the left for bilateral cases (P = .025), and greater on the left side than the right for unilateral cases (P = .007). In a subgroup of 519 RLNs, the diameter and EMG amplitude were measured. The RLN diameter increased by approximately 1.5-fold (P.001), and corresponded to increased EMG amplitude (P = .01) during the procedure. The diameter of the right RLN was larger than the left RLN, both at the beginning and end of the dissection (P = .001).The right-left differential rates of post-thyroidectomy RLN palsy seemed to be due in part to differential RLN diameters, with stretch having a more deleterious effect on RLNs with a smaller diameter; also, edema as a result of stretch might be an underlying mechanism for postoperative neurapraxia and palsy. Thyroid surgeons should be aware of the different vulnerabilities of each RLN and develop practices to avoid iatrogenic injury.