Search

In the western United States, Ixodes pacificus Cooley & Kohls (Acari: Ixodidae) is the primary vector of the agents causing Lyme disease and granulocytic anaplasmosis in humans. The geographic distribution of the tick is associated with climatic variables that include temperature, precipitation, and humidity, and biotic factors such as the spatial distribution of its primary vertebrate hosts. Here, we explore (1) how climate change may alter the geographic distribution of I. pacificus in California, USA, during the 21st century, and (2) the spatial overlap among predicted changes in tick habitat suitability, land access, and ownership. Maps of potential future suitability for I. pacificus were generated by applying climate-based species distribution models to a multi-model ensemble of climate change projections for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 (moderate emission) and 8.5 (high emission) scenarios for two future periods: mid-century (2026-2045) and end-of-century (2086-2099). Areas climatically-suitable for I. pacificus are projected to expand by 23% (mid-century RCP 4.5) to 86% (end-of-century RCP 8.5) across California, compared to the historical period (1980-2014), with future estimates of total suitable land area ranging from about 88 to 133 thousand km2, or up to about a third of California. Regions projected to have the largest area increases in suitability by end-of-century are in northwestern California and the south central and southern coastal ranges. Over a third of the future suitable habitat is on lands currently designated as open access (i.e. publicly available), and by 2100, the amount of these lands that are suitable habitat for I. pacificus is projected to more than double under the most extreme emissions scenario (from ~23,000 to >51,000 km2). Of this area, most is federally-owned (>45,000 km2). By the end of the century, 26% of all federal land in the state is predicted to be suitable habitat for I. pacificus. The resulting maps may facilitate regional planning and preparedness by informing public health and vector control decision-makers.

The expanding geographic ranges of tick species that are known pathogen vectors can have implications for human, domestic animal, and wildlife health. Although Alaska is home to several hard tick species, it has historically been outside of the range of the most common medically important ticks in the contiguous United States and western Canada. To assess the status of tick species establishment in the state and to provide a baseline for tracking future change in the distribution of ticks, we reviewed and compiled historical tick records and summarized recent tick occurrence records collected through the development of the Alaska Submit-A-Tick Program and through tick drag sampling at sentinel sites in southcentral Alaska. Between 1909–2019, there were 1190 tick records representing 4588 individual ticks across 15 species in Alaska. The majority of ticks were species historically found in Alaska: Haemaphysalis leporispalustris, Ixodes angustus, Ixodes auritulus, Ixodes howelli, Ixodes signatus, and Ixodes uriae. Over half of all tick records in the state were collected in the last 10 yr. During this time, the number of tick records and the number of tick species recorded in Alaska each year has increased substantially. Between 2010–2019, there were 611 tick records representing 1921 individual ticks. The most common hosts for reported ticks were domestic animals (n = 343, 56 %) followed by small wild mammals (n = 147, 24 %), humans (n = 49, 8%), and wild birds (n = 31, 5%). Less than 5% of records (n = 25) were of unattached ticks found in the environment. Since 2007, non-native tick species have been documented in the state every year, including Amblyomma americanum, Dermacentor andersoni, Dermacentor occidentalis, Dermacentor variabilis, Ixodes pacificus, Ixodes ricinus, Ixodes scapularis, Ixodes texanus, and Rhipicephalus sanguineus sensu lato (s.l.). Almost half of the records (n = 68, 48 %) of non-native tick species from 2010 to 2019 represented ticks found on a host (usually a dog or a human) that had traveled outside of Alaska in the two weeks prior to collection. However, A. americanum, D. variabilis, I. pacificus, I. texanus, and R. sanguineus s.l. have been found on humans and domestic animals in Alaska without reported recent travel. In particular, there is evidence to suggest that there is local establishment of R. sanguineus s.l. in Alaska. A tick species historically found in the state, I. angustus was frequently found on human and dogs, suggesting a potential role as a bridge vector of pathogens. Given the inconsistency of tick monitoring in Alaska over the past century, it is difficult to draw many conclusions from temporal trends in the data. Continued monitoring through the Alaska Submit-A-Tick Program will allow a more accurate assessment of the changing risk of ticks and tick-borne diseases in the state and provide information for setting clinical and public health guidelines for tick-borne disease prevention.

We developed the Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) to estimate climate change vulnerability in the Mabote and Moma Districts of Mozambique. We surveyed 200 households in each district to collect data on socio-demographics, livelihoods, social networks, health, food and water security, natural disasters and climate variability. Data were aggregated using a composite index and differential vulnerabilities were compared. Results suggest that Moma may be more vulnerable in terms of water resources while Mabote may be more vulnerable in terms of socio-demographic structure. This pragmatic approach may be used to monitor vulnerability, program resources for assistance, and/or evaluate potential program/policy effectiveness in data-scarce regions by introducing scenarios into the LVI model for baseline comparison.