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BACKGROUND & AIMS: Successful treatment of chronic hepatitis C with oral direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) leads to virological cure, however, the subsequent risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) persists. Our objective was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of biannual surveillance for HCC in patients cured of hepatitis C and the optimal age to stop surveillance. METHODS: We developed a microsimulation model of the natural history of HCC in individuals with hepatitis C and advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis who achieved virological cure with oral DAAs. We used published data on HCC incidence, tumor progression, real-world HCC surveillance adherence, and costs and utilities of different health states. We compared biannual HCC surveillance using ultrasound and alpha-fetoprotein for varying durations of surveillance (from 5 years to lifetime) vs. no surveillance. RESULTS: In virologically cured patients with cirrhosis, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of biannual surveillance remained below $150,000 per additional quality-adjusted life year (QALY) (range: $79,500-$94,800) when surveillance was stopped at age 70, irrespective of the starting age (40–65). Compared with no surveillance, surveillance detected 130 additional HCCs in ‘very early’/early stage and yielded 51 additional QALYs per 1,000 patients with cirrhosis. In virologically cured patients with advanced fibrosis, the ICER of biannual surveillance remained below $150,000/QALY (range: $124,600-$129,800) when surveillance was stopped at age 60, irrespective of the starting age (40–50). Compared with no surveillance, surveillance detected 24 additional HCCs in ‘very early’/early stage and yielded 12 additional QALYs per 1,000 patients with advanced fibrosis. CONCLUSION: Biannual surveillance for HCC in patients cured of hepatitis C is cost-effective until the age of 70 for patients with cirrhosis, and until the age of 60 for patients with stable advanced fibrosis. LAY SUMMARY: Individuals who are cured of hepatitis C using oral antiviral drugs remain at risk of developing liver cancer. The value of lifelong screening for liver cancer in these individuals is not known. By simulating the life course of hepatitis C cured individuals, we found that ultrasound-based biannual screening for liver cancer is cost-effective up to age 70 in those with cirrhosis and up to age 60 in those with stable advanced fibrosis.

Objectives To gain insight into the natural history and carcinogenesis pathway of Pancreatic Intraepithelial Neoplasia (PanIN) lesions by building a calibrated simulation model of PanIN progression to pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) Methods We revised a previously validated simulation model of solid PDAC, calibrating the model to fit data from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program and published literature on PanIN prevalence by age. We estimated the likelihood of progression from PanIN states (1, 2, and 3) to PDAC and the time between PanIN onset and PDAC (dwell time). We evaluated a hypothetical intervention to test for and treat PanIN 3 lesions to estimate the potential benefits from PanIN detection. Results We estimated the lifetime probability of progressing from PanIN 1 to PDAC to be 1.5% (men), 1.3% (women). Progression from PanIN 1 to PDAC took 33.6 years and 35.3 years, respectively, and from PanIN 3 to PDAC took 11.3 years and 12.3 years. A hypothetical test for PanIN 3 detection and treatment could provide a maximum, average life expectancy gain of 40 days. Conclusions Our modeling analysis estimates PanINs have a relatively indolent course to PDAC, supporting the feasibility of potential future early detection strategies.

Current guidelines recommend that all women with ovarian cancer undergo germline genetic testing for BRCA1/2 . Increasingly, genetic testing is being performed via panels that include other genes that confer a high or moderate risk of breast cancer. In addition, many women with a family history of breast or ovarian cancer are not found to have a mutation, but may have increased risk of breast cancer for which surveillance and risk reduction strategies are indicated. This review discusses how to assess and manage an increased risk of breast cancer through surveillance, preventive medications, and risk-reducing surgery. Assessing and managing the increased risk of breast cancer in BRCA1/2 mutation carriers after a diagnosis of ovarian cancer can be challenging. For the first few years after an ovarian cancer diagnosis, BRCA1/2 mutation carriers have a relatively low risk of breast cancer, and their prognosis is largely determined by the ovarian cancer. However, if these women remain in remission after two years, the risk of breast cancer becomes comparable with, and in some cases exceeds, their risk of ovarian cancer recurrence. For these women, breast cancer surveillance and risk reduction becomes important to their overall health. Specifically, for BRCA1/2 carriers who are diagnosed with early-stage ovarian cancer, we recommend regular breast cancer surveillance and consideration of risk reduction with medication and/or prophylactic mastectomy. For women with advanced ovarian cancer who do not achieve remission, breast cancer surveillance or prophylaxis is not of value. However, among carriers with more favorable advanced disease, it is reasonable to initiate breast cancer surveillance. Patients with less favorable advanced stage disease who achieve sustained remission (>2–5years) should also consider more aggressive strategies for breast cancer screening and prevention. For mutation carriers who remain in remission after five years, prophylactic mastectomy can be considered.