Search

High-latitude regions are experiencing rapid and extensive changes in ecosystem composition and function as the result of increases in average air temperature. Increasing air temperatures have led to widespread thawing and degradation of permafrost, which in turn has affected ecosystems, socioeconomics, and the carbon cycle of high latitudes. Here we overcome complex interactions among surface and subsurface conditions to map near-surface permafrost through decision and regression tree approaches that statistically and spatially extend field observations using remotely sensed imagery, climatic data, and thematic maps of a wide range of surface and subsurface biophysical characteristics. The data fusion approach generated medium-resolution (30-m pixels) maps of near-surface (within 1 m) permafrost, active-layer thickness, and associated uncertainty estimates throughout mainland Alaska. Our calibrated models (overall test accuracy of ~ 85%) were used to quantify changes in permafrost distribution under varying future climate scenarios assuming no other changes in biophysical factors. Models indicate that near-surface permafrost underlies 38% of mainland Alaska and that near-surface permafrost will disappear on 16 to 24% of the landscape by the end of the 21st Century. Simulations suggest that near-surface permafrost degradation is more probable in central regions of Alaska than more northerly regions. Taken together, these results have obvious implications for potential remobilization of frozen soil carbon pools under warmer temperatures. Additionally, warmer and drier conditions may increase fire activity and severity, which may exacerbate rates of permafrost thaw and carbon remobilization relative to climate alone. The mapping of permafrost distribution across Alaska is important for land-use planning, environmental assessments, and a wide-array of geophysical studies.

Understanding of the organic layer thickness (OLT) and organic layer carbon (OLC) stocks in subarctic ecosystems is critical due to their importance in the global carbon cycle. Moreover, post-fire OLT provides an indicator of long-term successional trajectories and permafrost susceptibility to thaw. To these ends, we 1) mapped OLT and associated uncertainty at 30 m resolution in the Yukon River Basin (YRB), Alaska, employing decision tree models linking remotely sensed imagery with field and ancillary data, 2) converted OLT to OLC using a non-linear regression, 3) evaluate landscape controls on OLT and OLC, and 4) quantified the post-fire recovery of OLT and OLC. Areas of shallow ( R 2 = 0.68; OLC: R 2 = 0.66), where an average of 16 cm OLT and 5.3 kg/m 2 OLC were consumed by fires. Strong predictors of OLT included climate, topography, near-surface permafrost distributions, soil wetness, and spectral information. Our modeling approach enabled us to produce regional maps of OLT and OLC, which will be useful in understanding risks and feedbacks associated with fires and climate feedbacks.

The direction and magnitude of soil organic carbon (SOC) changes in response to climate change remain unclear and depend on the spatial distribution of SOC across landscapes. Uncertainties regarding the fate of SOC are greater in high-latitude systems where data are sparse and the soils are affected by sub-zero temperatures. To address these issues in Alaska, a first-order assessment of data gaps and spatial distributions of SOC was conducted from a recently compiled soil carbon database. Temperature and landform type were the dominant controls on SOC distribution for selected ecoregions. Mean SOC pools (to a depth of 1-m) varied by three, seven and ten-fold across ecoregion, landform, and ecosystem types, respectively. Climate interactions with landform type and SOC were greatest in the uplands. For upland SOC there was a six-fold non-linear increase in SOC with latitude (i.e., temperature) where SOC was lowest in the Intermontane Boreal compared to the Arctic Tundra and Coastal Rainforest. Additionally, in upland systems mineral SOC pools decreased as climate became more continental, suggesting that the lower productivity, higher decomposition rates and fire activity, common in continental climates, interacted to reduce mineral SOC. For lowland systems, in contrast, these interactions and their impacts on SOC were muted or absent making SOC in these environments more comparable across latitudes. Thus, the magnitudes of SOC change across temperature gradients were non-uniform and depended on landform type. Additional factors that appeared to be related to SOC distribution within ecoregions included stand age, aspect, and permafrost presence or absence in black spruce stands. Overall, these results indicate the influence of major interactions between temperature-controlled decomposition and topography on SOC in high-latitude systems. However, there remains a need for more SOC data from wetlands and boreal-region permafrost soils, especially at depths > 1 m in order to fully understand the effects of climate on soil carbon in Alaska.