1. An empirical method to estimate earthquake direct economic losses using building damages in high intensity area as a proxy
- Author
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Xun Zeng, Xiwei Fan, Gaozhong Nie, and Xihai Zhang
- Subjects
Earthquake intensity ,Approximation error ,High intensity ,Damages ,Linear model ,Proxy (statistics) ,Intensity (heat transfer) ,Regression ,Geology ,Seismology - Abstract
It is well known that earthquake brings about gigantic direct and indirect economic losses, such as building and lifeline system damages, every year at the global scales. Thus, efficient and accurately estimate the economic loss after earthquake is one of the important factors for the post-earthquake reconstruction and the recovery activity of ordinary life. To estimate the earthquake-induced direct economic losses (DEL), a regression empirical method based on the earthquake-induced direct building damage economic losses (DBDEL) is proposed in this study. Firstly, a linear model between DBDEL of the entire earthquake impact areas and the DBDEL of areas with earthquake intensity greater than VII are acquired based six historical earthquakes occurred at the mainland China. Then, another linear model between the DEL and the entire DBDEL are obtained based on 16 historical earthquakes. The DBDEL and DEL of the historical earthquake records are acquired from field investment. To evaluate the accuracy of the proposed method, the DEL of 2013 Lushan M 7.0 earthquake estimated. Using the field invested and high-resolution remote sensing image estimated DBDEL at the intensity greater than VII areas, the corresponding DELs are estimated based on the proposed method, respectively, with the relative error of 3.2% and 57.0%. In addition, an empirical DEL method based on earthquake magnitude and intensity is also used to estimate the Lushan earthquake DEL, with the relative error of 90.0%. The result indicates that the proposed method can properly estimate DEL based on the field invested or remote sensed DBDEL.
- Published
- 2021
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