1. Development and validation of a new prognostic score for hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure
- Author
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Xin Zhou, Jiaxian Chen, Wen Hu, Jin Tian, Lulu He, Tingting Feng, Baoju Wang, Keke Ren, Yingyan Lu, Lingling Yang, Shaoli You, Zhanglu An, Bing Zhu, Jun Li, Jing Jiang, Xingping Zhou, Beibei Guo, Peng Li, Tan Li, Li Jiaqi, Jinjin Luo, Shaojie Xin, Dongyan Shi, Hui Yang, Xin Chen, Suwan Sun, Xiaojun Jin, Qun Cai, Xi Liang, Li Jiang, Jiaojiao Xin, and Tianzhou Wu
- Subjects
Adult ,Male ,0301 basic medicine ,Hepatitis B virus ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Bilirubin ,Encephalopathy ,medicine.disease_cause ,Chronic liver disease ,Statistics, Nonparametric ,Prognostic score ,Cohort Studies ,03 medical and health sciences ,chemistry.chemical_compound ,0302 clinical medicine ,Internal medicine ,Humans ,Medicine ,Prospective Studies ,Retrospective Studies ,Hepatology ,business.industry ,Mortality rate ,Acute-On-Chronic Liver Failure ,Middle Aged ,Hepatitis B ,Prognosis ,medicine.disease ,030104 developmental biology ,ROC Curve ,chemistry ,Research Design ,Cohort ,Female ,030211 gastroenterology & hepatology ,business - Abstract
BACKGROUND & AIMS Early determination of the prognosis of patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) is important to guide clinical management and decrease mortality. The aim of this study was to develop a new simplified prognostic score to accurately predict outcomes in patients with HBV-ACLF. METHODS Prospective clinical data from 2,409 hospitalized patients with acute deterioration of HBV-related chronic liver disease were used to develop a new prognostic score that was validated in an external group. RESULTS A total of 954 enrolled patients with HBV-ACLF were diagnosed based on the Chinese Group on the Study of Severe Hepatitis B-ACLF (COSSH-ACLF) criteria. Six predictive factors were significantly related to 28-day mortality and constituted a new prognostic score (=1.649×ln(international normalized ratio)+0.457×hepatic encephalopathy score+0.425×ln(neutrophil)+0.396×ln(total bilirubin)+0.576×ln(serum urea)+0.033×age). The C-indices of the new score for 28-/90-day mortality (0.826/0.809) were significantly higher than those of 4 other scores (COSSH-ACLF, 0.793/0.784; CLIF-C ACLF, 0.792/0.770; MELD, 0.731/0.727; MELD-Na, 0.730/0.726; all p
- Published
- 2021
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