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Many savanna-dependent species in Africa including large herbivores and apex predators are at increasing risk of extinction. Achieving effective management of protected areas (PAs) in Africa where lions live will cost an estimated US$ >1–2 billion/year in new funding. We explore the potential for fire-management-based carbon financing programs to fill this funding gap and benefit degrading savanna ecosystems. We demonstrate how introducing early dry season fire management programs could produce potential carbon revenues (PCRs) from either a single carbon financing method (avoided emissions) or from multiple sequestration methods ranging from US$ 59.6–655.9 million/year (at US$ 5/ton) or US$ 155.0 million/year to US$ 1.7 billion/year (at US$ 13/ton). We highlight variable but significant PCRs for savanna PAs from US$ 1.5–44.4 million/year per PA. We suggest investing in fire management programs to jump-start the United Nations Decade of Ecological Restoration to help restore degraded African savannas and conserve imperiled keystone herbivores and apex predators.

SUMMARYLions (Panthera leo) in Africa have lost nearly half their population in just the last two decades, and effective management of the protected areas (PAs) where lions live will cost an estimated USD >$1 B/year in new funding. We explore the potential for launching a fire management and habitat restoration carbon-financing program to help fill this PA management funding gap. We demonstrate how introducing early dry season fire management programs could produce potential carbon revenues (PCR) from either a single carbon-financing method (avoided emissions) or from multiple sequestration methods of USD $59.6-$655.9 M/year (at USD $5/ton) or USD $155.0 M–$1.7 B/year (at USD $13/ton). We highlight variable but significant PCR for PAs with the greatest potential for restoring lion numbers between USD $1.5–$44.4 M per PA. We suggest investing in lion-centric fire management programs to jump-start the United Nations Decade of Ecological Restoration and help preserve African lions across their range.SCIENCE FOR SOCIETYThe United Nation’s recently launched the Decade of Ecological Restoration in response to planet-wide land degradation. This study analyses the potential for savanna fire management programs to restore fire regimes that can generate new sources of revenue from carbon financing for chronically under-funded protected areas in Africa with lions, as lions are a key indicator of savanna ecosystem health. We estimated the amount of carbon saved by shifting fires that normally burn in the late dry season (and emit more carbon) to the early dry season (that accrue more carbon in the soil and woody vegetation). Based on current carbon market values we found substantial potential to eliminate or significantly reduce the $>1B annual funding gap needed to save the lion from extinction. Given additional benefits for nature and people from new savanna fire programs, we recommend integrated conservation and development projects direct more funding to some of the least developed countries with high biodiversity and support fire management programs in Africa.

Using surveys of experts associated with 186 sites across 24 countries, we assessed the effectiveness of African protected areas (PAs) at conserving lions and their prey, identified factors that influence conservation effectiveness, and identified patterns in the severity of various threats. Less than one third of sampled PAs conserve lions at ≥ 50% of their estimated carrying capacity (K), and less than half conserve lion prey species at ≥ 50% of K. Given adequate management, PAs could theoretically support up to 4 × the total extant population of wild African lions (~ 83,000), providing a measurable benchmark for future conservation efforts. The performance of PAs shows marked geographic variation, and in several countries there is a need for a significant elevation in conservation effort. Bushmeat poaching was identified as the most serious threat to both lions and to wildlife in general. The severity of threats to wildlife in PAs and the performance of prey populations were best predicted by geographic-socioeconomic variables related to the size of PAs, whether people were settled within PAs, human/livestock densities in neighbouring areas and national economic indicators. However, conservation outcomes for lions were best explained by management variables. PAs tended to be more effective for conserving lions and/or their prey where management budgets were higher, where photographic tourism was the primary land use, and, for prey, where fencing was present. Lions and prey fared less well relative to their estimated potential carrying capacities in poorer countries, where people were settled within PAs and where PAs were used for neither photographic tourism nor trophy hunting.

With large carnivores undergoing widespread range contractions across Africa, effective monitoring across mixed-use landscapes should be considered a priority to identify at-risk populations and prioritise conservation actions. We provide the first comparison of leopard population density within different components of a mixed-use landscape in Tanzania, via spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) modelling of camera trap data from the Ruaha-Rungwa landscape in 2018 and 2019. Population density was highest in highly-productive Acacia-Commiphora habitat in the core tourist area of Ruaha National Park (6.81 ± 1.24 leopards per 100 km2). The next highest density (4.23 ± 1.02 per 100 km2) was estimated in similar habitat in a neighbouring community-managed area (Idodi-Pawaga MBOMIPA WMA). Lowest densities were estimated in miombo (Brachystegia-Jubelnardia) woodland habitat, both in a trophy hunting area (Rungwa Game Reserve; 3.36 ± 1.09 per 100 km2) and inside the National Park (3.23 ± 1.25 per 100 km2). Population density was highly correlated with prey abundance, suggesting that variation in leopard density may be primarily driven by availability of prey, which likely varies with habitat types and anthropogenic impacts. Anthropogenic mortality may also have a direct influence on leopard in more impacted areas, but further research is required to investigate this. Our findings show that a hunting area with significant protection investment supports a leopard density comparable to similar habitat in a photographic tourism area. We also provide evidence that community-managed areas have the potential to effectively conserve large carnivore populations at relatively high densities, but may be vulnerable to edge effects.

Trophy hunting plays a significant role in wildlife conservation in some contexts in various parts of the world. Yet excessive hunting is contributing to species declines, especially for large carnivores. Simulation models suggest that sustainable hunting of African lions may be achieved by restricting offtakes to males old enough to have reared a cohort of offspring. We tested and expanded criteria for an age-based approach for sustainably regulating lion hunting. Using photos of 228 known-age males from ten sites across Africa, we measured change in ten phenotypic traits with age and found four age classes with distinct characteristics: 1-2.9 years, 3-4.9 years, 5-6.9 years, and ≥7 years. We tested the aging accuracy of professional hunters and inexperienced observers before and after training on aging. Before training, hunters accurately aged more lion photos (63%) than inexperienced observers (48%); after training, both groups improved (67-69%). Hunters overestimated 22% of lions

Lions, Panthera leo, and leopards, Panthera pardus, coexist in space and compete for resources. Although direct killing of leopards by lions has been recorded, avoidance behaviour is an important part of leopard ecology that is difficult to measure through direct observation. Using tracking data from simultaneously collared lions and leopards, we investigated the effect of lion proximity on the behavioural ecology of leopards. We show that proximity to lions influenced leopard habitat use, transition probability and behaviour. Within enclosed habitats, lions were allowed to get closer to leopards before leopards engaged in a flight response. Visual observation data suggest that lions and leopards infrequently come into direct contact. However, tracking data indicate that avoidance was based on relative habitat cover and detectability, and as a result the two species were often located within close proximity. Finding new signals of interaction and avoidance within two well-studied predators with relatively small sample sizes suggests that this approach may have value to other systems, such as predator/prey interactions, or relationships between sympatric species, and at a scale hitherto not possible. This could be used to investigate the costs and benefits of animal foraging where competitive exclusion may occur, and is relevant for the large number of animals that are difficult to observe.

Leopards have the largest natural distribution of felids, but have lost a third of their historical range, and their current CITES status is ‘Near Threatened’. Leopards are a highly sought after trophy species in Africa, although their populations are not monitored in most areas. Zimbabwe sets the highest leopard quota in Africa, but actual offtake does not reflect this, and the number of successful hunts has steadily declined in recent years. Accurate data on leopard populations is urgently needed, particularly where they are harvested. Camera-trapping is a powerful tool for non-invasively researching populations of rare and elusive felids, allowing accurate calculation of population density, and monitoring trends. However, unbaited camera-trapping is plagued by low capture rates, affecting the accuracy of the resultant density calculations. In addition, dependent cubs are underrepresented in the data, precluding an accurate description of demographic structure. We compared baited and unbaited camera-trapping methods and resultant data quality from two survey areas within our study site. Baited camera-trapping significantly increased leopard capture rates, as well as recording dependent cubs, which the unbaited method failed to detect. In addition, the baited method was more cost effective. Using baits to increase capture rates of leopards is more efficient than the unbaited method, and has the potential to accurately survey unmonitored populations; including where their density is too low to determine accurately via other means. These data are required for management of leopard populations, especially where harvested, and may be applied to improve monitoring efforts of other big cat species.

Hunting of individuals from a population can affect its demography and socio-spatial parameters. This study provided opportunities to assess such effects, and may help to improve the conservation of populations threatened by conflict and over-use. We treated the periods before and after a moratorium on the trophy hunting of lions around Hwange National Park, Zimbabwe, as a quasi-experimental opportunity to examine changes in lion socio-spatial behaviour during and after perturbation. Changes in ranging behaviour coincided with the release from heavy mortality from hunting outside the Park and were likely to be due to changes in the perturbation regime, rather than factors such as prey abundance, which did not change over the study period. Lion home range sizes decreased in both sexes after the moratorium. Overlap between groups decreased in males but increased in females. Variation in home range size reduced both annually and seasonally for both sexes. Home range centres became more closely distributed. Lions increased the use of denser vegetation cover classes (>30%) and decreased the use of open cover classes (10-30%). Lions increased the use of areas within 2-5. km of water, and decreased their use of the >20. km class. Perturbation therefore appeared to influence the socio-spatial behavior of the lion population. Managers considering the use of moratoria as a conservation tool must anticipate changes in the behavior and distribution of the target species. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

Between 1999 and 2004 we undertook an ecological study of African lions (Panthera leo) in Hwange National Park, western Zimbabwe to measure the impact of sport-hunting beyond the park on the lion population within the park, using radio-telemetry and direct observation. 34 of 62 tagged lions died during the study (of which 24 were shot by sport hunters: 13 adult males, 5 adult females, 6 sub-adult males). Sport hunters in the safari areas surrounding the park killed 72% of tagged adult males from the study area. Over 30% of all males shot were sub-adult (