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Many at-risk species lack standardized surveys across their range or quantitative data capable of detecting demographic trends. As a result, extinction risk assessments often rely on ordinal categories of risk based on explicit criteria or expert elicitation. This study demonstrates a Bayesian approach to assessing extinction risk based on this common data structure, using three freshwater mussel species being considered for listing under the US Endangered Species Act. The probability that a population is classified under each risk category was modeled as a function of projected landscape change using ordered probit regression, assuming observed categories reflect a latent, continuous probability of persistence. All three species were more likely than not (mean probability >0.5) to be classified as extirpated or low condition throughout their range based on effects of urban development and hydrologic alteration. Spatial variation in estimates revealed strongholds and high-risk areas relevant to conservation decision making. Projected change in probabilities of each risk category based on multiple land-use and climate models was generally small relative to high baseline risk resulting from past landscape changes. Assessing extinction risk based on probabilities of ordinal condition as a function of landscape patterns may provide a flexible and robust approach for many at-risk taxa by adjusting species' demographic criteria to match relative risk categories, following standardized criteria, or using expert elicitation for data-deficient species. This approach provides decision makers with a useful measure of uncertainty around ordinal classifications and provides a framework for estimating future risk based on projections of anthropogenic stressors.

The need for theories that address food web assembly and complexity over multiple spatial scales are critical to understanding their stability and persistence. In a meta-food web – an integrated network of local food webs – spatial heterogeneity in physical processes may have profound effects on food web function and energy flow. In the Arctic, surface water connectivity plays a vital role in determining fish assemblage composition, and potentially, food web structure. We examined lentic food web complexity associated with heterogeneity in surface water connectivity among Arctic lakes at the local scale, by contrasting lakes over a stream-lake connectivity gradient, and at the regional scale, by contrasting two locations with different surface water conditions (i.e., wet and dry) on the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska. Among lakes and across locations, increased hydrologic connectivity between streams and lakes increased the number of fish species and increased the complexity of the food web. The interaction of the region's hydrologic connectivity, local stream-lake connections, and the trophic niches of relevant fish species produced integrated, complex meta-food webs. Fully understanding mechanisms that support meta-food web stability are crucial when assessing future changes to Arctic stream-lake networks and the function and persistence of aquatic food webs.

In Lake Nabugabo, Uganda, a satellite of Lake Victoria, f50% of the indigenous fishes disappeared from the open waters subsequent to the establishment of the introduced predatory Nile perch, Lates niloticus. This pattern is similar to the faunal loss experienced in the much larger Lake Victoria. Several of these species persisted in wetland refugia (e.g. ecotonal wetlands, swamp lagoons); however, deep swamp refugia (habitats lying well within the dense interior of fringing wetlands), are available only to a subset of the basin fauna with extreme tolerance to hypoxia. Although airbreathers are common in deep swamp refugia; we also documented a surprisingly high richness and abundance of nonair-breathing fishes. We describe several mechanisms that may facilitate survival in deep swamp refugia including high hemoglobin concentration, high hematocrit, large gill surface area and a low critical oxygen tension (P ). In addition, c swamp-dwelling fishes showed lower PO thresholds for onset of aquatic surface respiration than the lake-dwelling 2 fishes. This suggests higher tolerance to hypoxia in the swamp fishes because they are able to withstand a lower oxygen tension before approaching the surface. We suggest that physiological refugia may be important in modulating the impact of Nile perch and indigenous fishes in the Lake Nabugabo region; this highlights the need to evaluate relative tolerance of introduced predators and indigenous prey to environmental stressors. 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.