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Measuring the diagnostic accuracy (DA) of an EEG device is unconventional and complicated by imperfect interrater reliability. We sought to compare the DA of a miniature, wireless, battery-powered EEG device ("microEEG") to a reference EEG machine in emergency department (ED) patients with altered mental status (AMS). Two hundred twenty-five ED patients with AMS underwent 3 EEGs. Two EEGs, EEG1 (Nicolet Monitor, "reference") and EEG2 (microEEG) were recorded simultaneously with EEG cup electrodes using a signal splitter. The remaining study, EEG3, was recorded with microEEG using an electrode cap immediately before or after EEG1/EEG2. The official EEG1 interpretation was considered the gold standard (EEG1-GS). EEG1, 2, and 3 were de-identified and blindly interpreted by two independent readers. A generalized mixed linear model was used to estimate the sensitivity and specificity of these interpretations relative to EEG1-GS and to compute a diagnostic odds ratio (DOR). Seventy-nine percent of EEG1-GS were abnormal. Neither the DOR nor the κf representing interrater reliabilities differed significantly between EEG1, EEG2, and EEG3. The mean setup time was 27 min for EEG1/EEG2 and 12 min for EEG3. The mean electrode impedance of EEG3 recordings was 12.6 kΩ (SD: 31.9 kΩ). The diagnostic accuracy of microEEG was comparable to that of the reference system and was not reduced when the EEG electrodes had high and unbalanced impedances. A common practice with many scientific instruments, measurement of EEG device DA provides an independent and quantitative assessment of device performance.

The intrarater and interrater reliability (I&IR) of EEG interpretation has significant implications for the value of EEG as a diagnostic tool. We measured both the intrarater reliability and the interrater reliability of EEG interpretation based on the interpretation of complete EEGs into standard diagnostic categories and rater confidence in their interpretations and investigated sources of variance in EEG interpretations. During two distinct time intervals, six board-certified clinical neurophysiologists classified 300 EEGs into one or more of seven diagnostic categories and assigned a subjective confidence to their interpretations. Each EEG was read by three readers. Each reader interpreted 150 unique studies, and 50 studies were re-interpreted to generate intrarater data. A generalizability study assessed the contribution of subjects, readers, and the interaction between subjects and readers to interpretation variance. Five of the six readers had a median confidence of ≥99%, and the upper quartile of confidence values was 100% for all six readers. Intrarater Cohen's kappa (κc) ranged from 0.33 to 0.73 with an aggregated value of 0.59. Cohen's kappa ranged from 0.29 to 0.62 for the 15 reader pairs, with an aggregated Fleiss kappa of 0.44 for interrater agreement. Cohen's kappa was not significantly different across rater pairs (chi-square=17.3, df=14, p=0.24). Variance due to subjects (i.e., EEGs) was 65.3%, due to readers was 3.9%, and due to the interaction between readers and subjects was 30.8%. Experienced epileptologists have very high confidence in their EEG interpretations and low to moderate I&IR, a common paradox in clinical medicine. A necessary, but insufficient, condition to improve EEG interpretation accuracy is to increase intrarater and interrater reliability. This goal could be accomplished, for instance, with an automated online application integrated into a continuing medical education module that measures and reports EEG I&IR to individual users.

Four to ten percent of patients evaluated in emergency departments (ED) present with altered mental status (AMS). The prevalence of non-convulsive seizure (NCS) and other electroencephalographic (EEG) abnormalities in this population is unknown. Objectives To identify the prevalence of NCS and other EEG abnormalities in ED patients with AMS. Methods A prospective observational study at 2 urban ED. Inclusion: patients ≥13 years old with AMS. Exclusion: An easily correctable cause of AMS (e.g. hypoglycemia). A 30-minute standard 21-electrode EEG was performed on each subject upon presentation. Outcome: prevalence of EEG abnormalities interpreted by a board-certified epileptologist. EEGs were later reviewed by 2 blinded epileptologists. Inter-rater agreement (IRA) of the blinded EEG interpretations is summarized with κ . A multiple logistic regression model was constructed to identify variables that could predict the outcome. Results Two hundred fifty-nine patients were enrolled (median age: 60, 54% female). Overall, 202/259 of EEGs were interpreted as abnormal (78%, 95% confidence interval [CI], 73-83%). The most common abnormality was background slowing (58%, 95% CI, 52-68%) indicating underlying encephalopathy. NCS (including non-convulsive status epilepticus [NCSE]) was detected in 5% (95% CI, 3-8%) of patients. The regression analysis predicting EEG abnormality showed a highly significant effect of age ( P κ : 0.45, 95% CI, 0.36-0.54). Conclusions The prevalence of EEG abnormalities in ED patients with undifferentiated AMS is significant. ED physicians should consider EEG in the evaluation of patients with AMS and a high suspicion of NCS/NCSE.

We introduce a method of accurately and efficiently modeling a large population of participants in a financial market. Each participant is modeled as having an internal preference state affected by the continual arrival of exogenous information and by the behavior of others. In order to describe a community of traders, we introduce a population equation that is derived rigorously from the underlying single-agent model. The population equation is used to investigate collective behavior with mimetic interactions. We observe and study the sharp transitions in parameter space from a stable time-independent regime to instability where the demand and supply diverge sharply.