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Purpose The National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) has recently endorsed the stratification of intermediate-risk prostate cancer (IR-PCa) into favorable and unfavorable subgroups and recommend the addition of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) to radiation therapy (RT) for unfavorable IR-PCa. Recently, more accurate prognostication was demonstrated by integrating a 22-feature genomic classifier (GC) to the NCCN stratification system. Here, we test the utility of the GC to better identify patients with IR-PCa who are sufficiently treated by RT alone. Methods and Materials We identified a novel cohort comprising 121 patients with IR-PCa treated with dose-escalated image guided RT (78 Gy in 39 fractions) without ADT. GC scores were derived from tumors sampled in diagnostic biopsies. Multivariable analyses, including both NCCN subclassification and GC scores, were performed for biochemical failure (prostate-specific antigen nadir + 2 ng/mL) and metastasis occurrence. Results By NCCN subclassification, 33 (27.3%) and 87 (71.9%) of men were classified as having favorable and unfavorable IR-PCa, respectively (1 case unclassifiable). GC scores were high in 3 favorable IR-PCa and low in 60 unfavorable IR-PCa. Higher GC scores, but not NCCN risk subgroups, were associated with biochemical relapse (hazard ratio, 1.36; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.09-1.71] per 10% increase; P = .007) and metastasis (hazard ratio, 2.05; 95% CI, 1.24-4.24; P = .004). GC predicted biochemical failure at 5 years (area under the curve, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.59-0.91), and the combinatorial NCCN + GC model significantly outperformed the NCCN alone model for predicting early-onset metastasis (area under the curve for 5-year metastasis of 0.89 vs 0.86 [GC alone] vs 0.54 [NCCN alone]). Conclusions We demonstrated the accuracy of the GC for predicting disease recurrence in IR-PCa treated with dose-escalated image guided RT alone. Our findings highlight the need to evaluate this GC in a prospective clinical trial investigating the role of ADT-RT in clinicogenomic-defined IR-PCa subgroups.

The majority of newly diagnosed prostate cancers are slow growing, with a long natural life history. Yet a subset can metastasize with lethal consequences. We reconstructed the phylogenies of 293 localized prostate tumors linked to clinical outcome data. Multiple subclones were detected in 59% of patients, and specific subclonal architectures associate with adverse clinicopathological features. Early tumor development is characterized by point mutations and deletions followed by later subclonal amplifications and changes in trinucleotide mutational signatures. Specific genes are selectively mutated prior to or following subclonal diversification, including MTOR, NKX3-1, and RB1. Patients with low-risk monoclonal tumors rarely relapse after primary therapy (7%), while those with high-risk polyclonal tumors frequently do (61%). The presence of multiple subclones in an index biopsy may be necessary, but not sufficient, for relapse of localized prostate cancer, suggesting that evolution-aware biomarkers should be studied in prospective studies of low-risk tumors suitable for active surveillance.