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The environmental impacts of food are currently at unsustainable levels. Consumers undoubtedly play a central role in reducing the impacts of the food system to more sustainable levels via dietary changes and food waste reduction. Mathematical optimisation is one approach to identifying less environmentally impactful dietary patterns. A limited number of studies, however, have assessed whether impact reductions offered by optimised diets are enough to remain within planetary boundaries (i.e. attain ‘absolute’ environmental sustainability). Using UK food consumption as a case study, here we employ linear programming to identify nutritionally adequate diets that meet sociocultural acceptability criteria whilst minimising (a) environmental impact transgressions of their allocated share of the safe operating space (SoSOS) for nine planetary boundaries (PBs), (b) cost, or (c) deviation from the current diet. We show that the current diet is unsustainable as it transgresses six or seven PBs, depending on the SoSOS allocation principle. Optimising for minimum SoSOS transgressions yields diets offering significant impact reductions (66 - 95% reduction across all PBs) compared to the current average dietary pattern, but whether they completely mitigate SoSOS transgressions depends on the sharing principle adopted to assign the SoSOS to national food consumption. Additionally, by comparing least-cost and least-transgression solutions, we find a trade-off between cost and environmental sustainability indicating that more sustainable dietary patterns are not currently incentivised by the relative prices of food items in the UK. Our work demonstrates the value in embedding ‘absolute’ sustainability in diet optimisation so that solutions inherently provide a more clear-cut understanding of their broad implications on the environment., Sustainable Production and Consumption, 28, ISSN:2352-5509

Negative emission technologies (NETs) could play a key role in ensuring net-zero and longer-term net negative emission ambitions are met. However, greenhouse gas emissions (and other pollutants) will occur over the life cycle of a NET and will need to be taken into consideration when developing schemes to roll out their use. We compare five NETs: afforestation/reforestation (AR), enhanced weathering (EW), mangrove restoration (MR), bioenergy and direct air capture with carbon storage (BECCS and DAC), using life cycle assessment to determine their environmental impacts (global warming, freshwater, toxicity etc.). We find that there is a wide range in the environmental impacts estimated across the NETs and the context in which they are used will directly impact which NET has low or high environmental impacts. This is an important aspect to consider when deciding which NET to prioritise in strategies to roll out their use on large scales. If consistent removal of CO2 from the atmosphere is the goal, then AR and MR have the lowest environmental impacts. However, if large and quick CO2 removal is the goal then EW, DAC and BECCS have similar, if not lower, environmental impacts.

This paper brings together socio-technical transitions theory with strategic foresight and human centred design. The aim is to bring in new methods for analysing the business model element of sustainability transitions. We propose a process for doing business model innovation work. Business models have become a key area of focus, particularly in the energy sector. Recent work shows how the development of new business models co-evolves with elements of the energy system, either driving technological innovation, changing user practices or placing pressure on the institutional or policy regime. At the same time, there is no recognised process for business model research aimed at transition management. It is time therefore to propose a more formalised and theoretically grounded approach to business model innovation work. We use this contribution to synthesise the lessons of a four-year research project centred on energy utility business models with industrial, commercial and government stakeholders. We describe the process adopted, and insights this process generated. We seek to establish this process in the literature, invite others to utilise it, adapt it and critique it.

Currently, conventional carbon dioxide (CO2) mitigation solutions may be insufficient to achieve the stringent environmental targets set for the coming decades. CO2 removal (CDR) technologies, such as direct air capture (DAC), capturing CO2 from the ambient air, are required. In this research, an independent life cycle assessment (LCA) of DAC adsorption systems based on three physisorbents (metal organic frameworks) and two chemisorbents (amine functionalized sorbents) is presented. These capture processes have been optimised by us in previous work. Results show that for the overall capture process, negative CO2 emissions are ensured by using a cellulose-based amine sorbent (cradle-to-gate) ensuring even the net removal of CO2 from the atmosphere (cradle-to-grave). Processes using physisorbents have poorer performances. Chemisorbents yield operating conditions allowing lower impacts on the environment. In 2050, these processes could reduce climate change but can generate other environmental impacts. With the aim to have better environmental performances of DAC systems, future research should be focused on improving the physical properties of sorbents such as the silica gel based amine sorbent to increase their capture capacities. If metal organic frameworks are to be used, it is necessary to drop their energy consumption (by increasing the loading) and the required mass of sorbent.

This paper presents analysis from 'a study of staff and patient experiences of the restrictive environments of a forensic psychiatric unit. The paper conceptualises the forensic unit as an impermanent assemblage, enacted in and through practices that hold a future life outside the unit simultaneously near, yet far. We show how the near-far relations between life inside and outside the unit operate in three ways; 1) in relation to the 'care pathway', 2) practices of dwelling, and 3) creating and maintaining connections to life 'beyond' the unit. The paper concludes with a discussion about possible ways to overcome the limitations to recovery that can arise through practices of impermanence.

The issues of forced displacement and energy for sustainable development are convergent: an estimated 90% of displaced people globally have no access to electricity, while 85% of refugees are hosted in developing countries. However, few tools to plan and design sustainable energy access interventions have been transposed to displacement settings. This paper presents a novel framework for the holistic planning of energy projects which considers both sustainability aspects and the specificities of displacement settings. The framework is the result of a review of literature which aimed to define a “sustainable energy intervention” in displacement contexts and an assessment of relevant planning tools against this definition. The framework includes the use of an energy delivery model toolkit, an inclusive design approach, an assessment of the desired impacts, energy system modelling, business model design, and an assessment of economic viability. We apply the framework in the design of a solar mini grid of Holl Holl refugee camp in Djibouti, in which a sustainable intervention and business model are proposed that could be compatible with the local conditions. We highlight issues that arise from the humanitarian sector status quo and propose that this framework could help to enhance sustainable energy practices in the humanitarian and development sectors.

The UK has incorporated a net-zero emissions target into national legislation. A range of Greenhouse Gas Removal (GGR) options will likely play a key role in the government's strategy toward meeting this goal. Governance frameworks will need to be developed to support GGR development and manage the potential impacts, particularly those on the diverse local communities where the various options will be deployed. This research examines the UK's experience with development and regulation of shale gas - using the technologies of hydraulic fracturing combined with horizontal drilling - with a focus on governance and the implications for the development and widespread deployment of GGR. We evaluate the approach used against the principles of good governance, which emphasizes the critical role that local communities and publics play in deployment. The UK's top-down governance of shale gas highlights the risk of regulation driven by assumptions about national and local need, value and a lack of transparency or meaningful stakeholder participation in decision-making. The use of existing legislative frameworks for conventional fossil fuel extraction proved inadequate to address unanticipated consequences such as induced seismicity. Moreover, the support for unconventional hydrocarbons in UK energy policy appeared inconsistent with the goal of meeting greenhouse gas targets and passing significant legislation in 2019 to bring carbon emissions to net-zero. To gain social acceptance at the local level, deployment of new technologies needs to be evaluated from a variety of framings and viewpoints. Where new technologies or practices are deployed, such as fracking and GGR, the knowledge and understanding of the impacts - a fundamental principle of good governance - may be less certain or more contested. Early inclusion and participation of local communities would allow issues of concern to inform how trials are undertaken and regulation designed. This anticipatory and participatory approach fits with the principles of good governance and procedural justice, which can help build the trust needed to ensure social legitimacy leading to development and implementation of technological innovations.

Visualisations are powerful communication tools that have the potential to help societies assess and manage natural hazard and disaster risks. However, the diversity of risk management contexts and user characteristics is a challenge to develop understandable and useable visualisations. We conducted a systematic literature review to understand the current state developing disaster risk visualisations following design best practices and accounting for the heterogeneity between end-users and disaster risk contexts. We find that, despite being widely recommended, tailoring visualisations to users through the process of user-centred design remains a relatively unexplored topic within disaster risk. To address this, we present a unifying user-centred design framework for disaster risk visualisation, based on existing visualisation frameworks. The framework contains three phases: the Define phase, which aims to define and characterise the disaster risk management context and end-user group who will benefit from a visualisation; the Design phase, which is highly iterative and presents an opportunity to test how users interpret different design elements; and the Refine phase, which focuses on evaluating how users understand, respond to, and make decisions based on the visualisation. The framework is sufficiently flexible to be applied to any disaster risk management and natural hazard context to identify challenges and design effective disaster risk visualisations that are understandable and useable.

Decarbonisation of heat is critical to the UK achieving its net zero emissions target by 2050. With the low rate of asset turn-over in the heat sector, decarbonisation needs to start immediately. However, the risk and uncertainty regarding the most ‘cost optimal pathway’ across the range of technology options and the lack of a holistic UK heat policy is failing to provide a clear directive as to how market actors should address UK heat decarbonisation. This research applies a novel commercial perspective to provide additional insight beyond that which traditional cost optimal tools are able to offer. The value pool approach is used to determine the magnitude of economic opportunities and map their resilience across multiple net zero scenarios in decadal timesteps to 2050. Our work indicates that by 2050 an annual value of £28 billion potentially exists in decarbonising heat in the UK. Realising this value, however, is subject to significant path-dependency. Unlocking the value will require substantial additional policy and regulatory support, business model innovation and unprecedented levels of consumer engagement and protection in the history of the energy sector.

Extreme and impactful weather events of the recent past provide a vital but under-utilised data source for understanding present and future climate risks. Extreme event attribution (EEA) enables us to quantify the influence of anthropogenic climate change (ACC) on a given event in a way that can be tailored to stakeholder needs, thereby enhancing the potential utility of studying past events. Here we set out a framework for systematically recording key details of high-impact events on a national scale (using the UK and Puerto Rico as examples), combining recent advances in event attribution with the risk framework. These ‘inventories’ inherently provide useful information depending on a user’s interest. For example, as a compilation of the impacts of ACC, we find that in the UK since 2000, at least 1500 excess deaths are directly attributable to human-induced climate change, while in Puerto Rico the increased intensity of Hurricane Maria alone led to the deaths of up to 3670 people. We also explore how inventories form a foundation for further analysis, learning from past events. This involves identifying the most damaging hazards and crucially also vulnerabilities and exposure characteristics over time. To build a risk assessment for heat-related mortality in the UK we focus on a vulnerable group, elderly urban populations, and project changes in the hazard and exposure within the same framework. Without improved preparedness, the risk to this group is likely to increase by ~50% by 2028 and ~150% by 2043. In addition, the framework allows the exploration of the likelihood of otherwise unprecedented events, or 'Black Swans’. Finally, not only does it aid disaster preparedness and adaptation at local and national scales, such inventories also provide a new source of evidence for global stocktakes on adaptation and loss and damage such as mandated by the Paris Climate Agreement.

The COVID-19 pandemic sent the oil industry into turmoil on a scale not seen since the 1970s. While the sector appears to be recovering, questions remain about the extent to which the pandemic has offered a glimpse into the possible future of the industry. This future is critical to the success of climate change mitigation, which requires significant cuts to the carbon dioxide emissions from using oil for energy. Therefore, it makes sense to consider future scenarios in which global oil demand peaks and then declines alongside scenarios of continued demand growth. This is a significant departure from historical development of oil demand and the dominant discussion of many decades about “peak oil” and the fear of demand outstripping readily available supply. The implications of peaking oil demand would be massive, not only for the oil industry but also for society as whole. There is not enough understanding of what the impacts would be, or how to prepare for them. The research community needs to take a clear-eyed view of potential futures of oil, which includes considering scenarios in which demand goes into long-term decline.

This paper draws on findings from an Australia-wide survey with data collected in three waves throughout 2020 to explore the impact of COVID-19 on public transport trends in metropolitan areas of Australia. Following consideration of the public transport sector response to the pandemic and the emerging literature context, we explore three principal questions: (i) How has weekly travel composition changed across the waves? (ii) How has level of concern with using public transport changed over the course of the pandemic given new bio-security concerns? and (iii) How has attitudes to risk been associated with the changes in PT use? A key finding is that concerns over bio-security issues around public transport are enduring, that concern about hygiene is significantly negatively related to public transport use and that those with higher concern about the hygiene of public transport also held higher concern about COVID-19 at work. Even as COVID-19 restrictions are eased, both concern about crowds and hygiene have a significant and negative correlation with public transport use. Concluding remarks are offered on what might need to happen for public transport patronage to start returning.

Explorations of the longer-term potential for community energy to contribute to the energy transition can shape policy and practice today. However, much community energy research in Great Britain is currently, and understandably, focussed on short-term responses to the crisis in the sector induced by recent shifts in policy support. Therefore, we held a series of visioning and backcasting workshops with community energy practitioners and other stakeholders, to co-create a vision of a long term future where there is a thriving community energy sector.This paper presents the results of those workshops. Using the concept of business models to interrogate how community energy could be structured in the future, we find that the sector could diversify from its current focus on renewable electricity generation and energy efficiency, into new areas of the energy system: demand-side flexibility, mobility and heat. We also see potential for a Community Energy Confederation to help bridge the gap between the strengths of local organising, and the opportunities offered by larger scale activities. We identify the importance of actions by government – both at national and local level – to realising this vision, in combination with the efforts of the community energy sector itself of course. We conclude that our research highlights the need for change in the institutional and spatial character of community energy; the sector’s pragmatic attitude to the technological aspects of the energy transition; and its focus on community energy’s role in delivering social and environmental co-benefits, in line with the concept of a just transition.

In 2017, France legislated a prohibition on domestic hydrocarbon exploration and production by 2040, in line with national carbon emissions reduction goals. As the law applies only to France or French territories, there is argued incentive for French-based companies to move their extractive activities abroad. France also passed in 2017 a remarkable ‘due diligence’ law—the Duty of Care Act—that holds large French companies responsible for impacts of their activities worldwide, including subsidiaries and the totality of their supply chains. The law’s potential reach is unclear as there is currently no case law to guide decision-making and application of its provisions. This Act merits close examination as it is the most comprehensive law globally aimed at enforcing corporate responsibility and requires companies of a defined size to create plans to anticipate and mitigate risk to human and environmental rights. Companies that violate the law by failing to address risk through a comprehensive plan may face stiff penalties and can be brought to court by ‘interested parties’ in French courts. The Act allows for those facing risk of harm or those acting on their behalf, including NGOs, to bring claims within France’s judicial system, which is arguably significant in countries with weak enforcement or legal capacity. The first lawsuit under the Act was brought against French-based Total by a consortium of French and Ugandan NGOs over the company’s alleged failure to adequately address risk to human and environmental rights in Uganda. However, while the case remains pending in the French court system, there are several opportunities to learn from analysis of this case and its significance in a global context. This perspective article discusses the current case and analyses the potential gaps and opportunities of application of the law. Further, this research considers the role of the French law as a model for other countries that are aiming to develop similar legislation or extend the reach of their own ‘due diligence’ frameworks.

Perspective written in response to # ERSS-S-20-01516.

More than 40% of the world’s population still relies on traditional biomass for their cooking needs. A shift to advanced cookstoves can bring significant health and environmental benefits, but only with near exclusive use which requires significant changes in users’ behaviours. Since the emergence of the Global Alliance for Clean Cookstoves (now the Clean Cooking Alliance) in 2011, more attention has been directed to consumer and demand side factors in clean cookstove adoption and efforts to better understand individuals’ behaviours, household dynamics and decision making around the adoption of clean cookstoves and fuels have increased. This paper presents a review of the academic literature (2013–2020) and aims to identify the most successful interventions of behaviour change techniques in the adoption of improved cookstoves as well as the most common barriers to success cited in the literature. The study sourced 40 peer reviewed published academic papers from spring 2013 to summer 2020, and identified the following most commonly used behaviour change techniques in the adoption of improved cookstoves: Shaping Knowledge (n = 19), Reward & Threat (n = 13), Social Support (n = 9), Comparisons (n = 4), Identity/Self-Belief (n = 4), Regulation (n = 0), Change in the Physical Environment (n = 2), Goals & Planning (n = 6). Based on these results, we present gaps in the literature and provide policy recommendations to promote the adoption and continued use of improved cookstoves.

Urban-led change for sustainability is a key site of intervention in delivering the ambitions of the Sustainable Development Goals. Within this broad discourse, four umbrella concepts have emerged in recent decades: urban sustainability, urban transitions, urban transformation and urban resilience. This literature review aims to offer a qualitative assessment of the types of interventions currently being advocated for in academic-led literature. Firstly, the paper presents an overview of the concepts and summarises current gaps; secondly, it uses Donella Meadows' Leverage Points as analytical framework to categorise and discuss interventions supported in the literature. Our findings indicate that although the literature advocates for systemic change towards sustainability as an outcome of a large palette of urban interventions, less consideration is given to the means of achieving these. The findings highlight the need to focus on processes as much as on outcomes when advocating, devising or implementing interventions. This requires a process of understanding and negotiating trade-offs and the different worldviews and values that underpin them. Addressing this entails going beyond technocratic skills through cultivating reflexivity, effective communities of practice and new forms of organising for knowledge production, as well as interrogate our roles and agency as urban researchers.

Limited analysis of the promotion of migration to rural areas by local governments or regions, exists. In Australia a unique development strategy has emerged in Sydney and Brisbane. Originally, called Country Week when it began in 2004, the Country and Regional Living Expo attempts to encourage urban–rural migration via place promotion by local councils at an annual Expo. The approaches of two local councils, Glen Innes and Oberon, are the focus of this paper. These towns demonstrate the construction of place-identity to distinguish them from competing locations in the minds of urban residents, particularly in the initial phase of differentiation. As representatives of these towns learned, however, this does not address the most important stimuli that attract new residents. These stimuli are employment and housing, followed by services such as health and educational facilities. Understanding these stimuli, comprehending the process of urban–rural migration, understanding place-brand, recognising the relative strengths and weaknesses of “warm” and “cold” place marketing, and integrating communications and working to build relationships with prospective migrants are the factors that are most likely to generate success in marketing rural destinations to potential urban emigrants.

While social network analysis continues to enjoy considerable attention, literature on social network data collection often lacks explicit attention to methods. This presents special challenges to approaching the problems of undertaking social network analysis and of studying disaster preparedness, planning, and, ultimately, risk reduction. In this paper, we address this issue by presenting our synthesis of several strategies for network analyses from our processes for network identification and data collection in a longitudinal study of multi-jurisdictional, inter-agency wildfire response networks in the American Northwest. In the course of this ongoing project, the process of detecting and collecting data on pre-existing and emergent networks in the real world was not a matter of one theoretical or empirical judgement, but rather several. We alternated between: (1) spatio-ecological detection of jurisdictions adjacent to areas at-risk for large wildfires; (2) a hybrid approach to selecting actors and agencies identified as common participants in wildfire response networks; and (3) event-based detections of parties to specific wildfire response networks. We conclude with steps for thinking through network identification and bounding, integrating networks, conceptualizing rosters and ties in initial and events-based phases, and how to manage longitudinal network data collection. Published version