1. Revising the Suspected-Cancer Guidelines: Impacts on Patients' Primary Care Contacts and Costs.
- Author
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Price, Sarah, Landa, Paolo, Mujica-Mota, Ruben, Hamilton, Willie, and Spencer, Anne
- Subjects
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PRIMARY care , *MEDICAL care costs , *CANCER diagnosis , *PANCREATIC cancer , *COLORECTAL cancer - Abstract
This study aimed to explore the impact of revising suspected-cancer referral guidelines on primary care contacts and costs. Participants had incident cancer (colorectal, n = 2000; ovary, n = 763; and pancreas, n = 597) codes in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink or England cancer registry. Difference-in-differences analyses explored guideline impacts on contact days and nonzero costs between the first cancer feature and diagnosis. Participants were controls ("old National Institute for Health and Care Excellence [NICE]") or "new NICE" if their index feature was introduced during guideline revision. Model assumptions were inspected visually and by falsification tests. Sensitivity analyses reclassified participants who subsequently presented with features in the original guidelines as "old NICE." For colorectal cancer, sensitivity analysis (n = 3481) adjusted for multimorbidity burden. Median contact days and costs were, respectively, 4 (interquartile range [IQR] 2-7) and £117.69 (IQR £53.23-£206.65) for colorectal, 5 (IQR 3-9) and £156.92 (IQR £78.46-£272.29) for ovary, and 7 (IQR 4-13) and £230.64 (IQR £120.78-£408.34) for pancreas. Revising ovary guidelines may have decreased contact days (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0.74; 95% confidence interval 0.55-1.00; P =.05) with unchanged costs, but parallel trends assumptions were violated. Costs decreased by 13% (equivalent to −£28.05, −£50.43 to −£5.67) after colorectal guidance revision but only in sensitivity analyses adjusting for multimorbidity. Contact days and costs remained unchanged after pancreas guidance revision. The main analyses of symptomatic patients suggested that prediagnosis primary care costs remained unchanged after guidance revision for pancreatic cancer. For colorectal cancer, contact days and costs decreased in analyses adjusting for multimorbidity. Revising ovarian cancer guidelines may have decreased primary care contact days but not costs, suggesting increased resource-use intensity; nevertheless, there is evidence of confounding. • Revising England's National Institute for Health and Care Excellence suspected-cancer referral guidelines shortened the time to diagnosis of colorectal and ovarian cancers. Impacts on healthcare resource use and costs are unknown. • We report weak evidence that revising the guidelines decreased primary care contact days with unchanged costs for symptomatic patients before ovarian cancer diagnosis, suggesting increased resource-use intensity. Contact days and costs remained unchanged for symptomatic patients after pancreas guidance revision and decreased for colorectal cancer but only after adjusting for multimorbidity. • Further research is needed to understand the overall impact of the revised guidelines on the English health system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
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