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Problems with localized nonhomogeneous material properties present well-known challenges for numerical simulations. In particular, such problems may feature large differences in length scales, causing difficulties with meshing and preconditioning. These difficulties are increased if the region of localized dynamics changes in time. Overlapping domain decomposition methods, which split the problem at the continuous level, show promise due to their ease of implementation and computational efficiency. Accordingly, the present work aims to further develop the mathematical theory of such methods at both the continuous and discrete levels. For the continuous formulation of the problem, we provide a full convergence analysis. For the discrete problem, we show how the described method may be interpreted as a Gauss-Seidel scheme or as a Neumann series approximation, establishing a convergence criterion in terms of the spectral radius of the system. We then provide a spectral scaling argument and provide numerical evidence for its justification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present an early version of a Susceptible–Exposed–Infected–Recovered–Deceased (SEIRD) mathematical model based on partial differential equations coupled with a heterogeneous diffusion model. The model describes the spatio-temporal spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, and aims to capture dynamics also based on human habits and geographical features. To test the model, we compare the outputs generated by a finite-element solver with measured data over the Italian region of Lombardy, which has been heavily impacted by this crisis between February and April 2020. Our results show a strong qualitative agreement between the simulated forecast of the spatio-temporal COVID-19 spread in Lombardy and epidemiological data collected at the municipality level. Additional simulations exploring alternative scenarios for the relaxation of lockdown restrictions suggest that reopening strategies should account for local population densities and the specific dynamics of the contagion. Thus, we argue that data-driven simulations of our model could ultimately inform health authorities to design effective pandemic-arresting measures and anticipate the geographical allocation of crucial medical resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]