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Extant research remains relatively silent on the polarizing attitudes stemming from large-scale conflict events, such as trade wars. Information cocoons, which highlight unilateral information, have been shown to amplify polarized opinions and behaviors. This paper aims to integrate mixed methods with social identity, system justification, and cognitive dissonance theories across four interrelated studies to understand the impact of conflict events and subsequent information cocoons on tourist decision-making. Study 1 leverages the elastic net synthetic control method to compare the actual Chinese tourist travel to the US with a predicted counterfactual scenario without the trade war. Studies 2 through 5, with 300, 423, 517, and 201 respondents respectively, examined tourists' competing reasonings and approach-avoidance tendencies regarding information cocoons about destinations involved in the trade war. The findings deepen our understanding of how information cocoons amplify polarized thinking and behaviors, which can be partially mitigated by travel experiences to conflicting countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The trade dispute between China and the US is not a recent phenomenon. The US administration argues that increased tariffs and fairer trade, investment, and technology relationships are necessary to reduce large and rising trade deficits with China and protect national security and the intellectual property of the US businesses. Recently, however, the COVID-19 Pandemic is causing a massive impact on trade relations between the two economies. We believe that any analysis should go beyond mere economic reasoning and traditional statistics to assess the full implications of the COVID-19 on fighting for the order. It is an undeniable fact that China has encroached on the political, trade, and economic hegemony that the US has marked for decades. The rise of China has been recognised as the most impactful phenomenon in the international political, economic, and trade relations in the new millennium. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Chinese households respond to the trade war by reducing risky asset holdings. • Effect is more pronounced in export-intensive cities. • Households become more risk-averse in response to the trade war. Exploiting the unique context of the U.S.-China trade war, this study evaluates whether households balance their exposure to geopolitical risks with the risk of their investment portfolios. Difference-in-differences analysis reveals that Chinese households respond to the trade war by reducing risky asset holdings, and this effect is more pronounced in export-intensive cities. Additional evidence suggests that households become more risk-averse in response to the trade war. These results shed light on the implications of geopolitical risks for households' financial decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In contrast to previous studies that mostly focused on the winners and losers of the US–China trade war, this study investigates the poverty and income distribution impact of the trade dispute in a developing country, using Indonesia as a case study. Employing a dynamic, computable general equilibrium model that is multi-region and multi-household, this study found that the trade war increases households' real income and reduces poverty in Indonesia. The impact of the trade war, which is channeled into the Indonesian economy via trade diversion, improves the country's terms of trade and eventually increases the returns of primary factors owned by households. However, Indonesia's income inequality might increase as the rise in real income of upper-income households exceeds the rise in real income of lower-income households. The policy measures introduced by Indonesia to take advantage of the trade war might lower poverty incidence further and alter the impact of negative income distribution from the trade war. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is a difficult time to be a farmer, particularly in the midwestern US, where a slow-moving farm crisis has been brewing. In recent years farmers have faced multiple socioeconomic threats such as a trade war with China, industry consolidation, and decreasing farmgate prices, as well as multiple environmental threats, including flooding and drought. We analyze farmers' assessments of these concurrent risks and their relationship to stress and farm exit, through a mail survey of 210 soy and dairy farmers in Indiana. On average, environmental threats are perceived as less of a threat to farmers than to immediate socioeconomic threats such as the trade war and, more importantly, long-run economic issues such as price decline and consolidation. We find evidence that farm exit is largely determined by farmer identity, perspectives on the trade war, and stress. The ongoing trade war with China is a key source of stress for soybean farmers and federal payments from the Market Facilitation Program are unlikely to stem farm exit. Addressing the farm exit problem and mitigating the current farm crisis necessitates greater attention to how policies, indirectly lead to farm exit through stress. • We analyze farmers' decisions to exit farming. • Farm exit is largely driven by perceived stress. • Environmental shocks pose less of a threat to farmers than economic shocks. • Market Facilitation Program payments are unlikely to stem farm exit. • The US-China trade is a key source of stress for farmers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study shows that the escalation of US import tariffs prompts Chinese exporters to strengthen their ESG engagement, strategically positioning themselves in the renewed competitive landscape. This finding is robust across various model specifications, sample selection methods, and ESG performance proxies. In addition, we document the ESG ranking improvement is stronger for firms with green innovation needs and those operating in industries with high domestic growth potential, which suggests that Chinese exporters aim for product differentiation to combat the tariff escalation. Moreover, the greater ESG engagement is more pronounced among state-owned enterprises, larger firms, and firms operating in pilot free trade zones, indicating firms with higher cost advantage pre-US-China trade war take greater steps forward in product differentiation. [Display omitted] • Rising tariffs lead Chinese exporters to enhance ESG for competitive edge. • This effect is stronger in firms needing green innovation and in high-tech sectors. • SOEs, larger companies, and firms operating in pilot free trade zones show stronger ESG improvements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Firms included in the entity list by the U.S. enhance mergers and acquisitions (M&As) investments. • The inclusion of Chinese firms in the entity list has disrupted their reliance on imported factors of production. • Technological and domestic M&As are specially enhanced. • M&As are supported by national industrial policies. Using a sample of Chinese high-tech firms, we document that firms included in the entity list by the U.S. enhance their mergers and acquisitions (M&As) investments. Mechanism tests indicate that the inclusion of Chinese firms in the entity list has disrupted their reliance on imported factors of production, thereby motivating their M&A decisions that aim to secure resources. Additional tests show that being included in the entity list motivates firms to enhance specific types of M&As such as technological and domestic M&As. Meanwhile, national industrial policy plays an important role in supporting these firms' M&As. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines trade frictions between US and China and if these have an effect on ASEAN's trade ties with the former countries. Since the early 1990s, there have been friction between these two countries whereby US blamed the Chinese government for its trade deficits and pointed to low value of Yuan compared with USD as a culprit. Though former US presidents had taken a softer approach in dealing with China on this issue, current president Donald Trump has been unrelenting and has taken a hardline stance. Trump's presidential campaign was founded on correcting US economic imbalances and he fulfilled his promises by imposing high tariffs on Chinese products. The sticky point is whether this policy will achieve its objectives since there are many US companies operating in China and who export their products in significant quantities to their home market. This trade friction will undoubtedly have spill over effects on the trading partners of both countries, namely ASEAN. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent decades, China experienced the fastest economic growth by opening its economy and focussing on trade and is now the second largest economy surpassing Japan. The widening of the US trade deficit with China raised tensions between the two largest economies of the world. Although China is gradually opening, it is still protecting some of its industries and engaging in unfair trade practices. Trump administration argues that trade deficit hurts US manufacturing and promised to cut them. Previous administration used the WTO process to challenge China for abusing intellectual property rights, import restrictions, and subsidising its industries. Protectionism hurts both countries. USA is the largest trade partner of China and US tariffs can slow its growth. China's tariffs on US goods also are raising prices for consumers. Moreover, studies indicate that unilateral measures of imposing tariffs neither reduce deficits nor create jobs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A supply chain network equilibrium model with differentiated products is constructed. • The model is then extended to include a quota or a tariff. • An equivalence between the two trade policy models is established. • Variational inequality formulations of all models are derived. • A case study on soybeans demonstrates that the welfare of consumers in the country imposing the quota or tariff declines. We introduce a supply chain network equilibrium model with differentiated products, in which firms compete on product quantities and quality. We then extend the model to include a strict quota or tariff. We establish the equivalence between the model with a strict quota and that with a tariff, when the quota constraint is tight, and the tariff corresponds to the equilibrium Lagrange multiplier associated with the constraint for the former model. Numerical examples reveal that although firms may benefit from the imposition of a quota or tariff, the welfare of consumers in the country imposing the instrument declines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) of the European Union (EU) may become a significant global climate policy milestone. The EU trade partners most willing to accept CBAM could help it gain the critical mass necessary for survival and broader adoption. The cooperation of the world's major economies would be particularly important, while major recipients of EU development aid may be most likely to fall into line. The stances of countries will depend on their climate outlook and how CBAM affects them. This paper assesses which countries are likely to be most accepting the EU's CBAM by constructing an index with the following dimensions: export structure, national carbon policy, innovation capacity, trade agreements with the EU, and the carbon intensity of their economies. The CBAM Support Index is applied to three different groups of countries to identify a variety of possible allies. • International support for CBAM will vary significantly among countries. • CBAM compatible major economies: Japan, Korea, Singapore, Israel, Canada, Colombia. • CBAM compatible EU aid recipients: Cote d'Ivoire, Colombia, South Africa, Serbia. • CBAM compatible pro-climate countries: Japan, Korea, Singapore, Israel, Cote d'Ivoire, Canada, Colombia, and Mexico. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use detailed quarterly data on US energy exports to examine the impacts of the US-China trade dispute on US energy-related commodity exports. Largely due to the shale revolution, the energy-related US current account balance has been reduced to close to zero, down from accounting for about half of the trade deficit in 2008. This is despite evidence that tariffs on imported energy-related commodities, such as solar panels, did not appear to negatively impact US imports. We estimate a regression of non-energy net exports dependent on gross domestic product, the exchange rate, and past non-energy trade deficit. We argue that the trade war led to a number of distortions that reshaped the US balance of trade in energy-related commodities. The risks of a protracted US-China trade war include slower economic growth, which is compounded by the risks associated with the aftermath of COVID-19. • In the US-China trade dispute, energy market depth can be compromised if policy becomes burdensome for market participation. • Assisting countries in the developing world grow their economies is the best long-term strategy for the US trade balance. • We shed light on several energy market impacts of the US-China trade war. • Policy that raises barriers to international trade does not bode well for US and global energy security. • Promoting growth through open trade is the best policy for expanding future US energy exports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• This paper investigates the hedge and safe haven properties of precious metals on China's financial markets. • This paper considers the domestic investors' perspective in China. • Precious metals are strong hedges for the bond market and diversifiers for other financial markets. • Precious metals can serve as safe haven against market turmoil, but the property may change with markets' volatility. • Chinese investors may shift their portfolios towards the developed world markets in response to a relatively lower market uncertainty levels. This study examines the hedge and safe haven properties of precious metals on China's financial markets, including stock, bond, commodity futures (CF), and foreign exchange (FX) markets. Using the DCC-GARCH models, the study shows that precious metals are strong hedges for the bond market and diversifiers for other financial markets. Furthermore, precious metals can serve as safe haven in the event of market turmoil, but this safe haven feature may change with the markets' volatility. Finally, the safe haven behaviors of precious metals differ during financial crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the increasing demand and limited production, China has to import a large amount of soybeans. However, soybean has been chosen as one target of the recent trade war between the US and China. It is therefore critical to assess the sustainability of soybean supply in China. Under such a circumstance, this study aims to fill such a research gap by using an emergy accounting approach from both spatial and temporal perspectives and at provincial-level. The impact of trade war on soybean imports and production is simulated by one GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) model. The results of Emergy Sustainability Indices (ESI) show that it is urgent to improve the sustainability of soybean planting in Heilongjiang, while Yunnan is the most appropriate place for planting soybean. For the international supply, the EER (Emergy Exchange Ratio) of China has decreased by 72% and the decrease of EERs at provincial level ranged from 59% to 86% during 2000–2015. The simulation results indicate the necessity of adjusting spatial structure of soybean planting and applying reasonable economic instruments to encourage sustainable soybean production. • This study assesses the sustainability of soybean supply at provincial level in China. • An Emergy Accounting (EMA) approach was applied from both spatial and temporal perspectives. • The impact of trade war on soybean imports and production was simulated by one Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model. • Regional disparity exists and requires region-specific policies to improve sustainable soybean production. • Adjusting spatial structure of soybean planting and applying reasonable economic instruments are key recommendations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]