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Abstract: We explored impacts of climate change on the geographic distribution of European beech by applying state of the art statistical and process-based models, and assessed possible climate change impacts on both adaptive capacity in the centre of its distribution and adaptive responses of functional traits at the leading and trailing edge of the current distribution. The species area models agree that beech has the potential to expand its northern edge and loose habitat at the southern edge of its distribution in a future climate. The change in local population size in the centre of the distribution of beech has a small effect on the genetic diversity of beech, which is projected to maintain its current population size or to increase in population size. Thus, an adaptive response of functional traits of small populations at the leading and trailing edges of the distribution is possible based on genetic diversity available in the local population, even within a period of 2–3 generations. We conclude that the adaptive responses of key functional traits should not be ignored in climate change impact assessment on beech. Adaptation to the local environment may lead to genetic and phenotypic structured populations over the species area already in few generations, depending on the forest management system applied. We recommend taking local differentiation into account in a future generation of process-based species area models. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: To identify weather controls of beech diameter growth and masting in southern Sweden, we analyze records of monthly weather, regional masting record, and tree-ring chronologies from five beech-dominated stands. The results indicate a strong weather control of temporal pattern of masting events in southern Sweden over the second half of the 20th century. Negative summer temperature anomaly 2 years prior to a mast year, coupled with positive temperature anomaly in the year immediately preceding the same mast year, is a characteristic weather pattern associated with known mast years. Strong dependence of beech masting behaviour on temperature explains the high degree of regional synchronization of masting events. Growth of beech in southern Sweden is strongly and negatively correlated with previous year''s summer temperature and positively – with previous year''s October temperature. The present study does not provide a conclusive answer in identifying a full set of direct and indirect effects of climatic variables controlling tree-ring growth, since the negative effect of previous year''s summer temperature may be a result of a temperature-controlled increase in the beech nut production in the current year. Consistent and significant negative departures of ring-width index during mast years support the hypothesis about a trade-off between investment of bioassimilates into production of beech nuts and tree-ring growth. Alternative explanation of growth anomalies in mast years, relating such anomaly to a negative impact of previous year''s growing season, was not supported by the data. We found a limited effect of masting on diameter growth in the following years, indicating that decline in the overall wood production, associated with heavy masting, is short term and typically occurs in the year of actual masting. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The study explores whether small-scale species diversity, species evenness and species richness in semi-natural grassland communities are similarly associated with present management regime and/or present and historical landscape context (percentage of different land-cover types in the surroundings). Species diversity, evenness and richness were recorded within 441 50×50cm grassland plots in 4.5×4.5km agricultural landscape on Öland, Sweden. Recent and historical land-cover maps (years 2004, 1959, 1938, 1835, and 1800) were used to characterize the present and past landscape context of the sampled vegetation plots. Partial regression and simultaneous autoregressive models were used to explore the relationships between species diversity measures (Shannon diversity, richness and evenness) and different explanatory variables while accounting for spatial autocorrelation in the data. The results indicated that species richness was relatively sensitive to grassland isolation, while the response of species evenness to isolation was characterized by a degree of inertia. Because the richness and evenness components of species diversity may respond differently to habitat fragmentation, we suggest that monitoring projects and empirical studies that focus on changes in biodiversity in semi-natural grasslands should include the assessment of species evenness – as a complement to the assessment of species richness. In addition, our results indicated that the development and persistence of a species-rich and even grassland vegetation was favoured in areas that have historically (in the 19th century) been surrounded by grasslands. Information on landscape history should, whenever possible, be incorporated into the planning of strategies for grassland conservation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Discusses the modelling of the potential distribution and community dynamics of lodgepole pine Pinus contorta in Scandinavia. Subspecies of the lodgepole pine whose distribution in native North America is described; Prediction of Scandinavian forest dynamics through the climatic parameters derived from a bioclimatic model STASH; Possibility of invasion of the species into sites outside the plantation areas.

Net primary production (NPP) is the difference in gross photosynthetic assimilation of carbon and carbon loss due to autotrophic respiration, and is an important ecosystem variable that facilitates understanding of climate change impacts on terrestrial ecosystem productivity and ecosystem services. The aim of this study is to rapidly estimate the NPP of European potential natural vegetation for current and future climate and carbon-dioxide scenarios (CO 2 ). A NPP meta-model was developed and evaluated based on the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. LPJ-GUESS was used to simulate NPP under current and future climate change as well as CO 2 scenarios. The NPP dataset produced from these simulations was used to determine the empirical relationships between NPP and driving climate variables (maximum temperature, minimum temperature, summer precipitation, winter precipitation) along with CO 2 concentration. The climate variables’ relationships were combined in a synergistic function including CO 2 relationships to estimate NPP. The meta-model was compared with randomly chosen NPP data originated from LPJ-GUESS. Furthermore, the meta-model's performance was evaluated on the European level with LPJ-GUESS simulations. The meta-model performed reasonably well with regard to estimating total NPP while performances for species-specific NPP were poor. For total NPP, the meta-model generated an agreement of R 2 = 0.68 and RMSE = 0.06 at CO 2 = 350 ppm in comparison to LPJ-GUESS simulations. The consideration of all CO 2 concentration scenarios yielded R 2 = 0.62 and RMSE = 0.08. A rapid synergistic approach is suggested that enables interactions between climate variables and their intra-annual variability to estimate NPP. This is a useful alternative to traditional empirical models that control NPP with the most limiting climate variable. The meta-model performed reasonably well for estimating total NPP for future climate change and CO 2 scenarios. However, species-specific NPP estimates were unsatisfactory, implying that the synergistic approach cannot account for species specific dynamics. Comparison between the meta-model and LPJ-GUESS at the European scale showed that additional environmental variables (e.g. solar radiation) would be necessary to improve the meta-model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In order to investigate the potential role of vegetation changes in megafaunal extinctions during the later part of the last glacial stage and early Holocene (42–10 ka BP), the palaeovegetation of northern Eurasia and Alaska was simulated using the LPJ-GUESS dynamic vegetation model. Palaeoclimatic driving data were derived from simulations made for 22 time slices using the Hadley Centre Unified Model. Modelled annual net primary productivity (aNPP) of a series of plant functional types (PFTs) is mapped for selected time slices and summarised for major geographical regions for all time slices. Strong canonical correlations are demonstrated between model outputs and pollen data compiled for the same period and region. Simulated aNPP values, especially for tree PFTs and for a mesophilous herb PFT, provide evidence of the structure and productivity of last glacial vegetation. The mesophilous herb PFT aNPP is higher in many areas during the glacial than at present or during the early Holocene. Glacial stage vegetation, whilst open and largely treeless in much of Europe, thus had a higher capacity to support large vertebrate herbivore populations than did early Holocene vegetation. A marked and rapid decrease in aNPP of mesophilous herbs began shortly after the Last Glacial Maximum, especially in western Eurasia. This is likely implicated in extinction of several large herbivorous mammals during the latter part of the glacial stage and the transition to the Holocene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and biological invasions are key processes affecting global biodiversity, yet their effects have usually been considered separately. Here, we emphasise that global warming has enabled alien species to expand into regions in which they previously could not survive and reproduce. Based on a review of climate-mediated biological invasions of plants, invertebrates, fishes and birds, we discuss the ways in which climate change influences biological invasions. We emphasise the role of alien species in a more dynamic context of shifting species’ ranges and changing communities. Under these circumstances, management practices regarding the occurrence of ‘new’ species could range from complete eradication to tolerance and even consideration of the ‘new’ species as an enrichment of local biodiversity and key elements to maintain ecosystem services. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Dynamic vegetation models are useful tools for analysing terrestrial ecosystem processes and their interactions with climate through variations in carbon and water exchange. Long-term changes in structure and composition (vegetation dynamics) caused by altered competitive strength between plant functional types (PFTs) are attracting increasing attention as controls on ecosystem functioning and potential feedbacks to climate. Imperfect process knowledge and limited observational data restrict the possibility to parameterise these processes adequately and potentially contribute to uncertainty in model results. This study addresses uncertainty among parameters scaling vegetation dynamic processes in a process-based ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS, designed for regional-scale studies, with the objective to assess the extent to which this uncertainty propagates to additional uncertainty in the tree community structure (in terms of the tree functional types present and their relative abundance) and thus to ecosystem functioning (carbon storage and fluxes). The results clearly indicate that the uncertainties in parameterisation can lead to a shift in competitive balance, most strikingly among deciduous tree PFTs, with dominance of either shade-tolerant or shade-intolerant PFTs being possible, depending on the choice of plausible parameter values. Despite this uncertainty, our results indicate that the resulting effect on ecosystem functioning is low. Since the vegetation dynamics in LPJ-GUESS are representative for the more complex Earth system models now being applied within ecosystem and climate research, we assume that our findings will be of general relevance. We suggest that, in terms of carbon storage and fluxes, the heavier parameterisation requirement of the processes involved does not widen the overall uncertainty in model predictions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Given the rate of projected environmental change for the 21st century, urgent adaptation and mitigation measures are required to slow down the on-going erosion of biodiversity. Even though increasing evidence shows that recent human-induced environmental changes have already triggered species’ range shifts, changes in phenology and species’ extinctions, accurate projections of species’ responses to future environmental changes are more difficult to ascertain. This is problematic, since there is a growing awareness of the need to adopt proactive conservation planning measures using forecasts of species’ responses to future environmental changes. There is a substantial body of literature describing and assessing the impacts of various scenarios of climate and land-use change on species’ distributions. Model predictions include a wide range of assumptions and limitations that are widely acknowledged but compromise their use for developing reliable adaptation and mitigation strategies for biodiversity. Indeed, amongst the most used models, few, if any, explicitly deal with migration processes, the dynamics of population at the “trailing edge” of shifting populations, species’ interactions and the interaction between the effects of climate and land-use. In this review, we propose two main avenues to progress the understanding and prediction of the different processes occurring on the leading and trailing edge of the species’ distribution in response to any global change phenomena. Deliberately focusing on plant species, we first explore the different ways to incorporate species’ migration in the existing modelling approaches, given data and knowledge limitations and the dual effects of climate and land-use factors. Secondly, we explore the mechanisms and processes happening at the trailing edge of a shifting species’ distribution and how to implement them into a modelling approach. We finally conclude this review with clear guidelines on how such modelling improvements will benefit conservation strategies in a changing world. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]