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To link to full-text access for this article, visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2006.04.003 Byline: Juha Siikamaki (a), David F. Layton (b) Keywords: Stated preferences; Nonmarket valuation; Data pooling; Discrete choice methods; Random coefficients; Rayleigh; Habitat conservation Abstract: This study investigates the convergent validity of discrete choice contingent valuation (CV) and contingent rating/ranking (CR) methods using flexible econometric methods. Our results suggest that CV and CR can produce consistent data (achieve convergent validity) when respondent's preferred choices and the same changes in environmental quality are considered. We also find that CR models that go beyond modeling the preferred choice and include additional ranks cannot be pooled with the CV models. Accounting for preference heterogeneity via random coefficient models and their flexible structure does not make rejection of the hypothesis of convergent validity less likely, but instead rejects the hypothesis to about the same degree or perhaps more frequently than fixed parameter models commonly used in the literature. Author Affiliation: (a) Resources for the Future, 1616 P Street NW, Washington, DC 20036, USA (b) Daniel J. Evans School of Public Affairs, University of Washington, Seattle, Box 353055, Seattle, WA 98195-3055, USA Article History: Received 18 March 2002

• Estimates tree cover restoration potential in croplands, pasturelands, and degraded forestlands. • Identifies potentially impacted populations in tropical countries by land use type. • Calculates smallholder farmland shares in countries with restoration potential. • Assesses policy, institutional and market conditions enabling smallholder restoration. • Uses expert knowledge to identify-four principles to advance smallholder restoration. Restoring tree cover in tropical countries has the potential to benefit millions of smallholders through improvements in income and environmental services. However, despite their dominant landholding shares in many countries, smallholders' role in restoration has not been addressed in prior global or pan-tropical restoration studies. We fill this lacuna by using global spatial data on trees and people, national indicators of enabling conditions, and micro-level expert information. We find that by 2050, low-cost restoration is feasible within 280, 200, and 60 million hectares of tropical croplands, pasturelands, and degraded forestlands, respectively. Such restoration could affect 210 million people in croplands, 59 million people in pasturelands and 22 million people in degraded forestlands. This predominance of low-cost restoration opportunity in populated agricultural lands has not been revealed by prior analyses of tree cover restoration potential. In countries with low-cost tropical restoration potential, smallholdings comprise a significant proportion of agricultural lands in Asia (∼76 %) and Africa (∼60 %) but not the Americas (∼3%). Thus, while the Americas account for approximately half of 21st century tropical deforestation, smallholder-based reforestation may play a larger role in efforts to reverse recent forest loss in Asia and Africa than in the Americas. Furthermore, our analyses show that countries with low-cost restoration potential largely lack policy commitments or smallholder supportive institutional and market conditions. Discussions among practitioners and researchers suggest that four principles – partnering with farmers and prioritizing their preferences, reducing uncertainty, strengthening markets, and mobilizing innovative financing – can help scale smallholder-driven restoration in the face of these challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]