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• Based on GTAP 10 database, RED-ALC China and China Global Investment Tracker database, we use the CGE model to simulate the influences of Chinese multinationals' investment on Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) economies. • Chinese investment and the booming economy are the engines for LAC development. • Chinese ODI contributes to GDP growth, and trade balance improvement in LAC. • The industries with resource endowments in LAC have expanded largely and squeezed out the production of manufactures. Under the 'Belt and Road' initiative, China has expanded its footprint in Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) and contributed to LAC FDI stock, as well as, gross fixed capital formation and GDP. Based on the firm-level Chinese investment data and GTAP database, this paper uses the computable general equilibrium model to estimate the influences of Chinese direct investment on LAC economies. Chinese ODI and the booming economy are the engines for LAC development, according to its contribution to GDP, and trade balance improvement. The rest of LAC economies, China and US benefit indirectly from Chinese investment as well. Each country gives its full play to its comparative advantages. However, it is cautious that the industries with resource endowments in LAC have expanded largely and squeezed out the production of manufactures, which makes LAC economies more dependent on the growth of Chinese economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• PM 2.5 concentration reduced by 19% but MDA8 O 3 concentration stayed generally stable from 2017 to 2019 in "2+26" cities. • PM 2.5 concentration was higher in winter while MDA8 O 3 concentration was higher in summer. • PM 2.5 and MDA8 O 3 pollution showed significant spatial autocorrelation at a prefecture-city level. • The avoidable premature deaths and economic loss from PM 2.5 and O 3 under the BCT2 scenario were 24,407, 27,501 cases, 60.8, and 68.4 billion CNY. Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and its surrounding areas (hereinafter referred to as "2+26" cities) are one of the most severe air pollution areas in China. The fine particulate matter (PM 2.5) and surface ozone (O 3) pollution have aroused a significant concern on the national scale. In this study, we analyzed the pollution characteristics of PM 2.5 and O 3 in "2+26" cities, and then estimated the health burden and economic loss before and after the implementation of the joint PM 2.5 -O 3 control policy. During 2017–2019, PM 2.5 concentration reduced by 19% while the maximum daily 8 hr average (MDA8) O 3 stayed stable in "2+26" cities. Spatially, PM 2.5 pollution in the south-central area and O 3 pollution in the central region were more severe than anywhere else. With the reduction in PM 2.5 concentration, premature deaths from PM 2.5 decreased by 18% from 2017 to 2019. In contrast, premature deaths from O 3 increased by 5%. Noticeably, the huge potential health benefits can be gained after the implementation of a joint PM 2.5 -O 3 control policy. The premature deaths attributed to PM 2.5 and O 3 would be reduced by 91.6% and 89.1%, and the avoidable economic loss would be 60.8 billion Chinese Yuan (CNY), and 68.4 billion CNY in 2035 compared with that in 2019, respectively. Therefore, it is of significance to implement the joint PM 2.5 -O 3 control policy for improving public health and economic development. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Globally, rotavirus is a leading cause of severe acute gastroenteritis among children aged under 5 years and has a significant economic cost. Currently, rotavirus vaccines are only included in the private market in China. This study aimed to assess the cost-benefit of including a three-dose rotavirus vaccine in China's National Immunization Program (NIP). A decision tree Markov model was constructed to evaluate the cost-benefit of universal immunization with three doses of rotavirus vaccine for a 2019 birth cohort of Chinese children. Costs of the universal vaccination program included vaccine price, vaccine wastage, vaccine administration, and indirect costs. All costs were discounted at 3 % per year and converted from 2019 Chinese Yuan to 2019 USD using the 2019 exchange rate. For the 2019 birth cohort of Chinese infants, inclusion of RotaTeq in NIP was estimated to prevent 5,677,911 cases of rotavirus infection, with net savings of $1.1 billion in total societal costs. A cost of $17.55 per vaccine dose was the threshold at which inclusion of rotavirus vaccine in NIP would be cost-saving. Introducing rotavirus vaccine into the China NIP would have significant costs from a societal perspective at the current private market price. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the effect of green-bond financing on energy efficiency investment for green economic recovery. The fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique was used to achieve the research objective. The study's findings showed that green bonds are currently the primary financing source for energy efficiency projects, enhancing economic growth by 4.9% and potentially increasing green economic recovery by approximately 17% per annum. The fuzzy analysis technique and alternative models of fuzzy modeling were applied in this study. An alternative to project-based financing is energy performance contracts (EPCs). Green bonds also invest in public and private funds for energy efficiency and economic growth. Alternatively, such bonds may finance environmental initiatives or companies. Testing energy-efficiency projects with low payback rates may be expensive. Expanding the green economy through green bonds is essential for financing to successfully promote energy efficiency finance and green growth. This study also has policy implications for stakeholders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the impact of real exchange rate volatility and misalignment on exports and imports between China and the United States. Our empirical analysis used the quarterly time series data over the 1994Q:1–2019Q:4 period. We used the ARDL-bound testing approach for the short- and long-run relationship. The empirical results reveal that China's real exchange rate volatility and misalignment significantly impact China's real exports and imports over the sample period. In the short-run, the relationship between real exchange rate misalignments and China's exports is positive, whereas negative with imports from the United States. In the long run, the real exchange rate misalignment positively affects exports and negatively affects imports. The evidence suggests that both higher real exchange rate volatility and misalignment directly affect the relative price of goods and encourage China exports to United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We analyse the relationship between trade patterns and the allocation of investment projects carried out under the China-led Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). • Investments tend to concentrate in countries located in central nodes of the international production networks as well as towards suppliers of intermediate goods whose revealed comparative advantage overlaps with China. • High income countries closer to destination markets tend to attract fewer but larger investments. • The BRI represents an opportunity for China to upgrade its exports and for the countries receiving investments to enhance their participation in Global Value Chains with possible positive impacts on development. We analyze the relationship between trade patterns and the allocation of investment projects carried out under the China-led Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Rooted on a novel database, we construct the intermediate trade network and assess its role in the allocation of the projects. Investments tend to concentrate in countries located in central nodes of the international production networks as well as towards suppliers of intermediate goods whose revealed comparative advantage overlaps with China. High income countries closer to destination markets tend to attract fewer but larger investments. Controlling for gravity variables as well as for political proximity to China adds explanatory power without affecting the results on the importance of trade. The BRI represents an opportunity for China to upgrade its exports and for the countries receiving investments to enhance their participation in Global Value Chains (GVC) with possible positive impacts on development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nearly all studies in the literature have assessed the impact of exchange rate changes on trade flows for goods. Service industries, however, have not received much attention. Two studies have assessed the effects of exchange rate changes on U.S. service trade with its partners. We add to this literature with a new study that assesses the symmetric and asymmetric effects of changes in the real effective rate of the yuan on China's trade in 11 service industries with the world. While we find short-run effects on imports and exports for almost all service categories, short-run effects last into long-run asymmetric effects in six Chinese importing service industries and eight Chinese exporting service industries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pancreatic fistula is a life-threatening complication of pancreaticoduodenectomy. Omega-like duct-to-mucosa pancreatojejunostomy is a novel technique which helps reduce the risk of fistulation. This study aimed to compare early postoperative outcomes of omega-like and conventional pancreatojejunostomy. A retrospective single-centre cohort study comparing outcomes of adult patients who underwent open pancreatoduodenectomy with conventional (CDMP) or omega-like duct-to-mucosa pancreatojejunostomy (ODMP) between 1 January 2015 and 31 December 2019. The primary outcome measure was the pancreatic fistula rate. 440 patients were included in this study of whom 233 underwent CDMP and 207 ODMP. The rate of clinically relevant pancreatic fistula (grade B/C) was significantly higher after CDMP than ODMP (18.5% vs. 10.6%, P = 0.021). 153 patients in CDMP group and 99 patients in ODMP group developed one or more complications (65.7% vs. 47.8%, P = 0.004). The average hospitalization expenses were numerically decreased in ODMP group, although this was not statistically significant (120,000 ± 42,000 [Chinese Yuan] vs. 100,000 ± 40,000 [Chinese Yuan] or 18,581 ± 6503 [United States Dollar] vs. 15,484 ± 6194 [United States Dollar], P = 0.402). ODMP may reduce the incidence of pancreatic fistula and other early postoperative complications after pancreatoduodenectomy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given that the global fleet of electric vehicles is expanding rapidly, leading to a surge in demand for power batteries, the significance of battery recycling has come sharply into focus. In this paper, we develop a tripartite evolutionary game model coupled with a system dynamics simulation approach to analyze the behavioral mechanisms of stakeholders in electric vehicle battery recycling and to identify the key factors influencing their strategic transformations. The model involves three key stakeholders: local governments, battery cathode manufacturers, and battery pack manufacturers. Through profit analysis and the formulation of a replicator dynamics system, coupled with the application of Vensim for system dynamics modeling, we analyze the effects of ten crucial exogenous variables on stakeholder strategies. Our research highlights the crucial role of government actions, such as subsidies and penalties, in directing corporate strategies. Notably, excessively high subsidies (over 2.1 million Chinese Yuan) lead to dependency among cathode manufacturers. Market factors, including increased battery sales and the preference for low-carbon procurement by electric vehicle manufacturers, are shown to significantly motivate cathode manufacturers to adopt recycling strategies and encourage pack manufacturers to develop recyclable designs. Additionally, the introduction of EU battery regulations and the integration of cathode manufacturers into carbon trading schemes have been identified as positive catalysts for strategic shifts, especially for cathode manufacturers, while exerting minimal influence on pack manufacturers. This paper elucidates the intricate interaction of the behavioral patterns and key motivators affecting stakeholder strategies in electric vehicle battery recycling. [Display omitted] • An evolutionary game model involving local governments, cathode manufacturers, and pack manufacturers is established. • EU battery regulations' impact on the system's evolutionary path is quantified by the sales influence coefficient. • Subsidies over 2.1 million Chinese Yuan lead to path dependency among cathode manufacturers. • When battery sales fall to 4.5 GWh, manufacturers shift from recycling-consistent strategies to opposing strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Following recent advances in asymmetric impact of exchange rate volatility on trade flows, we assess the symmetric and asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on China's bilateral trade with each of its 21 trading partners. We find symmetric effects in only a few bilateral trade models. However, the asymmetric analysis which required using nonlinear models revealed short-run asymmetric effects in almost all export and import demand models and log-run significant asymmetric effects in 50% of the models. In almost all models, while increased volatility was found to hurt Chinese trade, decreased volatility was found to boost them, implying that stable exchange rate is beneficial for China's trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The phase III STELLAR (NCT02533271) trial demonstrated that four cycles of chemotherapy after short-course radiotherapy (SCRT-TNT) were not inferior to the standard care of long-course concurrent radiotherapy (LCRT) in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). This study assessed the cost-effectiveness of SCRT-TNT versus LCRT in locally advanced rectal cancer in China on the basis of the STELLAR trial. A Markov model was used to synthesize the healthcare costs and benefits of LARC patients based on results from the STELLAR trial. The model assumes that LARC who meet the inclusion criteria of the STELLAR trial experience four possible states: No Evidence of Disease (NED), locally recurrence, distant metastases, or any death from rectal cancer or other unrelated causes, where local recurrence continues to be classified as resectable and unresectable. The transition status period is 3 month, and 5 years is used to calculate direct medical costs and health benefits. The probabilities of states transition after SCRT-TNT or LCRT were derived from the results of the STELLAR trial and previous published article (Table.1). Costs were evaluated from the Chinese payer's perspective reported in early 2022 US dollars (US$1 = 6.78 Chinese Yuan). Sensitivity analyses were performed for key variables. Cost-effectiveness was evaluated using the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio and net monetary benefits. Effectiveness was defined as quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold was set at $43500/QALY. Data were collected from October 3, 2020, to September 20, 2021, and analyzed from November 15, 2020, to October 25, 2021. During the 5-year horizon, for the base case scenario, SCRT-TNT incurred a lower total cost and higher QALYs compared with LCCRT. The total cost was $65767 and QALYs were 1.77 for SCRT-TNT; for LCCRT, the total cost was $72802 and QALYs were 1.64. This resulted in an ICER of -$ 55470.69 per QALY. Therefore, SCRT-TNT was a cost-saving and dominating treatment strategy compared with LCRT. Sensitivity analysis showed that ICERs were most sensitive to the parameters of distant metastases risk after treatment. SCRT-TNT in locally advanced rectal cancer can be a cost-effective alternative to LCRT in China, and should be considered in appropriately selected patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a daily foreign and institution flows data, this paper studies how institutional and foreign investors respond to the COVID-19 pandemic events in China. The results indicate that during the COVID-19 crisis foreign investors play a market stabilization role showing significant negative feedback trading, whereas institution investors do not stabilize the market. And compared to the pre-COVID-19 period, foreign investors even exhibit stronger negative feedback trading. Further analyses confirm that foreign investors' negative feedback is mainly driven by their response to negative returns. Moreover, both institutional and foreign investors' trading show stronger forecastability of future returns during the pandemic period. And the negative returns after foreigners' selling and positive returns after institutional buying are much stronger during the crisis period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Imported inputs affects the exchange rate pass-through via two channels. • Marginal cost channel serves by changing the marginal cost of export products. • Quality change channel serves by altering exporters' incentive to change quality. • These two channels generate opposite effects on the exchange rate pass-through. • The marginal cost channel dominates the quality change one for Chinese exporters. This paper examines how the use of imported intermediate inputs affects the exchange rate elasticity of export prices. We first construct a theoretical model to illustrate that a change in imported input cost followed by a change in the exchange rate affects export prices through two distinct channels: directly changing the marginal cost of export products(i.e., the marginal cost channel) and indirectly altering exporters' incentive to upgrade (or downgrade) the quality of products (i.e., the quality change channel). These two channels generate opposite effects on the exchange rate elasticity of export prices. Our empirical analyses find strong evidence of the existence of the marginal cost and quality change channels. Overall, the marginal cost effect dominates the quality change effect. The marginal cost channel is weaker for products with larger scope for quality differentiation and firms with a higher ability to upgrade quality, as predicted by the theoretical model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Movement restriction policies (MRPs) are effective in preventing/delaying COVID-19 transmission but are associated with high societal cost. This study aims to estimate the health burden of the first wave of COVID-19 in China and the cost-effectiveness of early versus late implementation of MRPs to inform preparation for future waves.Methods: The SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered) modeling framework was adapted to simulate the health and cost outcomes of initiating MRPs at different times: rapid implementation (January 23, the real-world scenario), delayed by 1 week, delayed by 2 weeks, and delayed by 4 weeks. The end point was set as the day when newly confirmed cases reached zero. Two costing perspectives were adopted: healthcare and societal. Input data were obtained from official statistics and published literature. The primary outcomes were disability-adjusted life-years, cost, and net monetary benefit. Costs were reported in both Chinese renminbi (RMB) and US dollars (USD) at 2019 values.Results: The first wave of COVID-19 in China resulted in 38 348 disability adjusted life-years lost (95% CI 19 417-64 130) and 2639 billion RMB losses (95% CI 1347-4688). The rapid implementation strategy dominated all other delayed strategies. This conclusion was robust to all scenarios tested. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of 70 892 RMB (the national annual GDP per capita) per disability-adjusted life-year saved, the probability for the rapid implementation to be the optimal strategy was 96%.Conclusions: Early implementation of MRPs in response to COVID-19 reduced both the health burden and societal cost and thus should be used for future waves of COVID-19. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Promoting the synergy between carbon mitigation and pollution reduction (SCMPR) is pivotal for global green and sustainable development. Industrial parks, as crucial economic hubs, require effective SCMPR strategies considering land, economy, and the environment, but present research seldom proposes methods that consider multiple factors and stakeholders together and fit for practical application. Given this, this study establishes a multi-factor industrial structural adjustment model for industrial parks incorporating scenario analysis to unveil optimal adjustment schemes and then develops an efficient spreadsheet tool based on the model. The model results convincingly fulfill SCMPR requirement after applying to a typical industrial park: After adjustments, 50 main industries in the park can achieve SCMPR targets, with carbon intensity and total phosphorous intensity predicted to achieve relative decoupling and other regular pollutant emissions anticipated to absolute decoupling by 2030. The proposed optimal scheme indicates that wastewater, waste gas, and solid waste volumes in the park will rise by 39%–54% by 2025 and 76%–113% from 2025 to 2030, and then translate into a 50% increase in waste treatment costs by 2025 and a subsequent 98% increase by 2030. The carbon intensity of the park will decrease from 154 tonnes of CO 2 per million Chinese Yuan in 2020 to 94 in 2030. The results culminate in three strategic recommendations for industrial parks: (1) prioritize reducing total pollutant emissions and carbon intensity, (2) customize carbon mitigation and pollution reduction strategies for each industry, and (3) regulate material and energy flows at multiple levels. This study can provide a pragmatic tool for industrial parks to make science-based decision-making toward dual carbon goals. [Display omitted] • An industrial structural adjustment model is established for industrial parks. • The model aims to realize synergistic carbon mitigation and pollution reduction. • An efficient spreadsheet tool based on the model is developed for application. • The case park can achieve synergistic reduction by model application. • Three strategic recommendations are proposed for synergistic reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recycling resources from wastewater is even more important for developing a more sustainable society. Disposing sewage sludge, which accumulates most pollutants and resources in sewage, is the main challenge in wastewater pollution control and resource utilization. Heavy metals (HMs) are the greatest constraint limiting the application of sewage sludge to land as a sustainable use of this material. We conducted a meta-analysis of the concentrations of HMs in Chinese sewage sludge by combining data from studies published from 2000 to 2019 (N = 8477). Over this period, the reported concentrations of HMs in sewage sludge declined in three stages (a fluctuating stage, a slight decrease stage, and a rapid and stable decrease stage). The results revealed that economic development and environmental policy implementation were the main factors mitigating HM pollution in sewage sludge in China. Moreover, if environmental regulations were strengthened and HM pollution-mitigation strategies were made consistent, such that the proportion of sewage sludge applied to land in China could be increased from 18.6% to 48.0% (the proportion applied to land in the United States), the ecosystem services analysis showed that huge ecological–economic benefits could be realized (3.1 billion Chinese Yuan) and the use of fertilizers could be substantially reduced (the use of nitrogen fertilizers by 8.5% and the use of phosphate fertilizers by 18.1%). This review shows that China should formulate a unified policy and interdepartmental committee for sustainable application of sewage sludge to land and wastewater resource recycling management. [Display omitted] • HM concentrations of sewage sludge declined in three stages from 2000 to 2019. • Economic upgrading and policy implementation were the main driving forces. • ECG and HMW were positively correlated with the sludge HM pollution. • GDP per capita and TITEP were negatively correlated with the sludge HM pollution. • Ecosystem services value of sludge land use has been greatly improved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Biogas generation mechanism and utilization potential in the STASAB was analyzed. • CH 4 high-speed generation was quickly achieved in the STASAB. • Various microbial communities affecting biogas production were detected. • Higher energy potential was obtained in the STASAB compared with SASAB. • Biogas for electricity production in the STASAB is recommended. The biogas generation mechanism and its utilization potential in a novel spatiotemporally anaerobic/semi-aerobic bioreactor (STASAB) system with three activated bioreactors (C1, C2 and C3) was analyzed. Methane generation potential was obtained by measurements and estimation methods with similar values of 23.38 and 27.79 kg CH 4 /t waste, respectively. CH 4 and CO 2 production was quickly achieved in the STASAB, and the total amount of CH 4 and CO 2 was low due to the mixed leachate-recirculation operation process among bioreactors, which were at different stages of operation. The microbial communities in different bioreactors were diverse. The leachate-recirculation operation was a critical parameter to effectively enhance the microbial community structure in the STASAB, which can regulate CH 4 , CO 2 and N 2 O production with global warming potential of 7.479 kg CO 2 e/(t·d). The STASAB had higher energy potential of 1.011 kWh/(t·d) compared with that of conventional landfills and sequentially anaerobic/semi-aerobic bioreactors. Moreover, direct electricity production in the STASAB is recommended for energy utilization with 38.38% GHG emission reduction, and with 131.43 million CNY (Chinese Yuan) benefit per year for national rural waste disposal via utilization of biogas from the STASAB for power generation. Hence, the STASAB shows a notable potential for treating domestic waste in rural areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Location optimization model of recyclable MSW recycling center (RRC) was developed. • The model was based on p-median method and total cost minimization. • The optimal number of RRCs for case of Shanghai China was proved to be 14. • Optimized RRCs were located in rural area but surrounded populated urban area. • Optimal RRCs will change with unit transportation cost and unit scale cost. The establishment of recycling network is critical to improve municipal solid waste (MSW) management. However, how to determine the best locations for the recycling stations and recycling centers remains to be solved. Under such a circumstance, this study aims to forecast the MSW generation and develop a cost-based location optimization model using p-median method so that the optimal scale and location of recycling centers can be identified. Shanghai, with an ambitious plan for promoting MSW recycling at the city level, was selected as a case study city. Results show that Shanghai's MSW generation rate will be about 3% from 2017 to 2020. Regional distribution analysis shows that the downtown areas have higher intensity for MSW generation due to high population density and consumption level. Fourteen regional recycling centers were identified to be the optimal places for establishing recycling centers. The achievement of this scenario can lead to the lowest total cost of 144 million Chinese Yuan. Moreover, the optimal results may change if unit transportation cost and unit scale cost are changed. For instance, the optimal numbers of recycling centers will increase with the increase of unit transportation cost or decrease of unit scale cost. Finally, model limitations and policy recommendations are raised by considering the local realities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper the attempt is to raise another dimension of trade, namely, the value of Chinese currency vis-à-vis US dollar. One of the main motivations of our paper is to address the prime question of whether the Chinese currency is actually undervalued or has it been appreciating over the years? The current trade war is, at least, in part driven by the nervousness on the part of the USA that the Chinese currency is actually undervalued and, hence, leads to USA having a mounting current account deficit. Our study shows that Chinese Yuan has been growing at half per cent per annum in the past 22 years. China's Current Account Balance (CAB) has remained positive and growing, whereas, USA's CAB has remained negative. There is an 80% correlation between USA's loss and China's gain in share of foreign reserves, which has grown at 9% p.a..in recent years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extracellular vesicles bear a rich glycome that presents versatile functions in diverse biological processes. Leverage polydopamine modified magnetic particles to serve as nanosized agents for rapid and robust EV capture and manipulation, we here integrated the easy magnetic actuation with specific lectin-glycan binding and enzyme-mediated fluorescence amplification and thus proposed a facile approach to efficiently decipher a broad spectrum of glycans in EVs. Termed magnetic nanoagent assisted extracellular vesicle glycan deciphering (MAEG), the developed assay utilized a magnet as the assistant operation tool and realized fast (∼1 h) and sensitive (a limit of detection of ∼0.7 μg/mL vesicles) EV glycan analysis in a simple low-cost (around 2.27 Chinese Yuan for one test) manner without requirement of any sophisticated platforms. With robust performance for different sample species, the assay achieved to depict the comprehensive glycosylation landscapes for varied EVs derived from eight cell lines focusing on non-small-cell lung cancer. Systematic analyses clearly revealed the high heterogeneity in glycan features of EVs of varied cellular origins. Using an established difference network method, unique glycan features in different EVs were sifted out and further compiled to construct lectin-denoted patterns as dedicated glycosylation fingerprints, potentially expanding EV-based clinical applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Island ecosystems have always played a leading role in conservation biology globally. However, the rich biodiversity of islands is seriously threatened by human activities. Quantifying island biodiversity in economic terms is important since it allows the benefits associated with island biodiversity to be directly compared with the economic value of alternative resource use options, which is essential in the formulation of effective policies for island biodiversity conservation. The main objective of this paper is to assess the economic value of island biodiversity on Pingtan Island, China. The contingent valuation method (CVM) was used to obtain a public willingness to pay (WTP) estimate for a policy to protect island biodiversity. To obtain a more reliable WTP estimation result, a grouped data model was used to test and correct for warm glow bias. The results demonstrate that more than half of the positive bidders are individuals who could be considered to exhibit warm glow behavior and that the warm glow effect will result in an overestimation of WTP. After endogenizing the warm glow effect, the estimated total value of marine biodiversity on Pingtan Island is 73.72 million Chinese yuan (CNY) per year. The results could provide a data basis for cost-benefit analysis, ecological restoration and other environmental management schemes related to island biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Livestock systems account for 19% of total global greenhouse gas emissions, so it is of great importance to explore their carbon footprint under different management modes for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and mitigating global warming. We conducted a survey of 404 herdsmen households in a typical steppe region of Inner Mongolia, the province with the highest number of livestock in China. This study identifies different livestock management modes, and analyzes their carbon footprint and carbon efficiencies. The results show that: (1) according to source of household income, there are seven management modes, including small livestock breeding-oriented, large livestock breeding-oriented, mixed small/large livestock breeding, grassland byproduct-oriented, pasture leasing-oriented, non-livestock-oriented, and mixed with breeding and non-livestock. The dominant management mode in this typical steppe region of Inner Mongolia was small livestock breeding-oriented. (2) Among the seven management modes, mixed with breeding, and non-livestock management, had the highest household carbon footprint (7.22 t CO 2), and also the highest household income (208,500 Chinese Yuan), while grassland byproduct-oriented management had the lowest household carbon footprint (5.07 t CO 2), and pasture leasing-oriented management had the lowest household income (71,000 Chinese Yuan). (3) Based on the Gini coefficient, the distribution of household carbon footprint among the seven management modes was relatively equal (0.26), but the direct carbon footprint showed the greatest inequality among these management modes (0.38). (4) The seven management modes showed significant differences in carbon efficiency, with grassland byproduct-oriented management, and mixed small/large livestock breeding management, ranked in the top two, while pasture leasing-oriented management had the lowest carbon efficiency. We identified grassland byproduct-oriented management, and mixed small/large livestock breeding management, as the two most optimal management modes. Although the pasture leasing-oriented management mode exhibited a lower household carbon footprint, it also had the lowest carbon efficiency, and so its adoption should be cautious. • We identify herdsmen household seven management modes in Inner Mongolia. • Household carbon footprint and efficiency differ among management modes. • Grassland byproduct-oriented and mixed small/big livestock breeding are most optimal. • It must be cautious to adopt pasture leasing-oriented management mode. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The urban heat island effect in Beijing is significant, which has become a serious environmental problem posed to Beijing citizens. As an important measure to alleviate the urban heat island effect, cool roof is recommended in relevant Evaluation Standard for Green Building of China. In order to elicit policy implications, this paper investigates Beijing residents' willingness to pay for promoting cold roofs to alleviate the urban heat island effect and its determinants. This research applied double-bounded discrete choice format and face to face interview to elicit public's willingness to pay. 841 Beijing households were randomly selected and interviewed. For 242 (29%) respondents refuse to pay, the spike model was introduced to process the data for it has been proved to outperform the conventional model in dealing with zero responses. The average annual willingness to pay was computed as 1510.854 Chinese Yuan, which is 220.562 US dollars per household. In addition, In terms of the determinants of residents' willingness to pay, other than conventional demographic characteristics, we added and estimated covariance with regard to environmental knowledge and the theory of planned behavior. The result indicated that social norm, perceived behavior control, and previous knowledge of urban heat island effect and cool roof are statistical significantly related with residents' willingness to pay. This research suggests that timely information disclosure with regard to urban environment management and pro-environment education are urgently needed in promoting public participation in alleviating the urban heat island effect. • Willingness to pay for cool roofs for mitigating urban heat island effect is estimated. • The annual mean willingness to pay 1510.854 Chinese Yuan. • TPB theory and environmental knowledge can greatly explain pro-environment behavior. • Government credibility and education is important in promoting public participation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA), this research investigates the dynamic relationship between the RMB exchange index and the liquidity of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market during the period from 22 June 2010 to 17 February 2017. As suggested by our empirical results, the well-known efficient market hypothesis by no means explains the dynamics between the RMB index and stock market liquidity. Indeed, the RMB index and stock market liquidity are cross-correlated, and the cross-correlations exhibit multifractal features. Further, cross-correlations between the RMB index and the liquidity of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market demonstrate strong and positive persistence. In particular, the positive persistence of cross-correlations is strengthened in the presence of a tightening monetary policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's central bank digital currency (CBDC), digital yuan or e-CNY, is likely to profoundly affect the international financial system. China's CBDC is fast evolving. Understanding the influencing factors of China's CBDC will likely be crucial to explore its future direction. Major influencing factors include (i) China's perception and conception of regulation and technology, (ii) complementarity between China's preferences and CBDC development, (iii) domestic and international legitimacy, and (iv) institutional development. This paper argues that these influencing factors contribute to China's likely approach of selectively reshaping the international financial system. Given the potential wide-ranging implications of the introduction of CBDC globally, China's approach may be significant in the next evolution of money. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the long-range cross-correlations between the Chinese Renminbi (RMB) exchange rate and the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) markets both on qualitative and quantitative basis, using a comprehensive dataset covering the period from October 8, 2006 to September 30, 2016. Our empirical results suggest that a nonlinear time-varying correlation exists between the markets. We also verify that the third stage of China’s monetary policy reform from 2011 to 2016 had a greater influence on both small and large foreign exchange (FX) market fluctuations. Using the multifractality analysis, we conclude that China’s monetary policy can significantly reduce the multifractality of cross-correlations between the RMB exchange rate and Shibor rate markets, and that market efficiency in the third stage of policy reform is improved. Furthermore, the source of multifractality of cross-correlations is found mostly in the nonlinear correlation and fat-tailed probability distribution (PDF) components. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract This paper investigates the inter-relationships between CNH, CNY and NDF exchange rate markets. Through Johansen co-integration test, we found there do exist long term equilibrium relationships between these markets, Then we try to use VAR model and Granger causality test to explore the detail relationships between RMB markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the last few decades, and especially since the financial crisis of 2007–2008, uncertainty about the future of the US dollar has been mounting. A broad-based theoretical debate on the decline of the dollar and its consequences has begun. There is a large body of studies that sees the origin of an international money as a market-led process. In this view, because the United States will very soon lose its economic pre-eminence the US dollar will consequently share its international role with other currencies or even be replaced by the renminbi. In this paper we contest this argument, focusing on the conditions that make a fiat money acceptable in international transactions. Trust in a type of money like this needs an institutional framework that guarantees the property rights of currency holders. This framework implies a high level of rule of law domestically and a high level of state capability in the international balance of power. Since at present no other currency fulfils these two requirements at the same time, the dominance of the US dollar as an international money is going to last. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper employs multifractal detrended analysis (MF-DFA) and multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA) to study cross-correlation behaviors between China’s RMB exchange rate market and four international commodity markets, using a comprehensive set of data covering the period from 22 July 2005 to 15 March 2016. Our empirical results from MF-DFA indicate that the RMB exchange rate is the most inefficient among the 4 selected markets. The results from quantitative analysis have testified the existence of cross-correlations and the result from MF-DCCA have further confirmed a strong multifractal behavior between RMB exchange rate and international commodity markets. We also demonstrate that the recent financial crisis has significant impact on the cross-correlated behavior. Through the rolling window analysis, we find that the RMB exchange rates and international commodity prices are anti-persistent cross-correlated. The main sources of multifractality in the cross-correlations are long-range correlations between RMB exchange rate and the aggregate commodity, energy and metals index. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the international spillover effects of China's monetary policy shock on macro and financial variables in 26 countries along the Belt and Road (B&R) from 2000 to 2019. We find that a surprise Chinese monetary tightening brings about a widening in the short-term interest rate spread, a drop in the equity price, nominal depreciation against the RMB and real depreciation, and an improvement in the trade balance, on average, across the 26 B&R countries. Moreover, substantial heterogeneous effects emerge in the responses of the foreign real exchange rate and the trade balance in different groups in terms of the 26 countries' trade weights with China, capital openness, and national income levels. Finally, all the empirical evidence reveals that the expenditure switching effect plays an important role in facilitating the international transmission of China's monetary policy shock. • Estimates China's monetary policy shock series via a large Bayesian VAR model. • Examines the cross-border transmission of the shock via local projections. • Finds significant spillover effects of China' monetary policy shock abroad. • Finds heterogeneities in the spillover effects for different country groups. • Finds the expenditure switching effect is key in the monetary policy transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we investigate the cross-correlations between the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and RMB exchange markets on the basis of a cross-correlation statistic test and multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA). MF-DCCA has, at best, serious limitations for most of the signals describing complex natural processes and often indicates multifractal cross-correlations when there are none. In order to prevent these false multifractal cross-correlations, we apply MFCCA to verify the cross-correlations. Qualitatively, we find that the return series of the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and RMB exchange markets were, overall, significantly cross-correlated based on the statistical analysis. Quantitatively, we find that the cross-correlations between the stock index and RMB exchange markets were strongly multifractal, and the multifractal degree of the onshore RMB exchange markets was somewhat larger than the offshore RMB exchange markets. Moreover, we use the absolute return series to investigate and confirm the fact of multifractality. The results from the rolling windows show that the short-term cross-correlations between volatility series remain high. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the Asian financial crisis of 1997–1998, China has significantly increased its foreign exchange reserves. We argue that the resulting abnormal levels of currency reserves accumulated by Chinese authorities are not intended to maximize the citizenry’s economic welfare, as in a mercantilist or a precautionary account, but rather to forestall the elite’s own political demise. This goal has been pursued mainly by generating large current account surpluses through manipulation of the renminbi exchange rate. The Chinese elite has sought to promote the acceptance of this policy by influencing the costs of collective action taken by winners and losers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fertilizer overuse causes serious environmental degradation, and it is important to identify the influencing factors of fertilizer use. To feed the largest population worldwide, China has adopted a productivity-led agricultural policy regime and established the largest public agricultural extension system. Given that China is the largest consumer of fertilizers, understanding the role of public agricultural extension services (PAES) in the context of the productivity-led agricultural policy regime can provide a new insight for policy-makers to take measures to reduce fertilizer use. Using survey data of 1002 rice farmers in 2018, this study employs the treatment-effect model to examine the effect of PAES adoption on fertilizer use and its heterogeneity. The results show that about 22% of rice farmers adopt PAES. After addressing the endogeneity issue, farmers' PAES adoption raises total fertilizer use, nitrogen fertilizer use and fertilizer expenditure in rice production by 242.96 kg/ha, 109.37 kg/ha and 1400 Chinese yuan per hectare (CNY/ha), respectively. The effects of PAES adoption on fertilizer use are heterogeneous in different provinces. These results indicate that moves should be directed towards altering the productivity-led agricultural policy regime, reinforcing the development of socialization agricultural service system, and altering the contents and approaches of agricultural extension services. • We examine the effect of public agricultural extension services on fertilizer use. • The treat-effect model is used to address the endogeneity issue. • Public agricultural extension services increase fertilizer use in rice production. • Heterogeneous effects of public agricultural extension services are found. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the process of currency internationalisation of the Chinese Renminbi (RMB). Aggregated cross-border data provided by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications (SWIFT) allows better measurement of the role played by a currency in trade and settlement. RMB transactions are significant and increasing but remain concentrated in key financial centres. Analysis using an asset pricing framework shows that the footprint of Chinese corporations in international markets has at times been significant, with the size of these transactions prompting many to reassess the likely pace of RMB internationalisation and its usage as an alternate vehicle currency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the paper, we research on the characteristics of RMB exchange rate time series fluctuation with methods of symbolization and coarse gaining. First, based on fluctuation features of RMB exchange rate, we define the first type of fluctuation mode as one specific foreign currency against RMB in four days’ fluctuating situations, and the second type as four different foreign currencies against RMB in one day’s fluctuating situation. With the transforming method, we construct the unique-currency and multi-currency complex networks. Further, through analyzing the topological features including out-degree, betweenness centrality and clustering coefficient of fluctuation-mode complex networks, we find that the out-degree distribution of both types of fluctuation mode basically follows power-law distributions with exponents between 1 and 2. The further analysis reveals that the out-degree and the clustering coefficient generally obey the approximated negative correlation. With this result, we confirm previous observations showing that the RMB exchange rate exhibits a characteristic of long-range memory. Finally, we analyze the most probable transmission route of fluctuation modes, and provide probability prediction matrix. The transmission route for RMB exchange rate fluctuation modes exhibits the characteristics of partially closed loop, repeat and reversibility, which lays a solid foundation for predicting RMB exchange rate fluctuation patterns with large volume of data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper employs time series method and Dynamic Bayesian Network method to measure the pass through of RMB exchange rate to prices of different industries. The result shows that the direct transfer effect of RMB exchange rate on RMPI, CGPI and CPI is remarkable. At the same time, the RMB exchange rate can also have indirect influence on PPI, CGPI and CPI of different industries. This study indicates that wood, chemistry, textile and other labor-intensive industry prices are sensitive to the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate, while the exchange rate pass-through effects of energy, black metal, non-ferrous metals and other mineral industries prices are not significant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the effectiveness of the RMB regime reforms on market efficiency improving for the mainland onshore market and Hong Kong offshore market. Based on multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA), we study the multifractal properties as well as multifractality degree of RMB/USD and RMB/HKD exchange markets. Our empirical results show that, the first RMB regime reform undertaken on July 21, 2005 has a greater impact on RMB/USD exchange market in the short term, while the second RMB exchange reform undertaken on June 19, 2010 exerts the long-term influences on the efficiency of both RMB/USD and RMB/HKD markets. Further, RMB/HKD market is found to work more efficiently, although both mainland onshore market and Hong Kong offshore market have achieved a higher level of efficiency post reforms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the impact of a broadening of the SDR basket to the Chinese currency on the composition and volatility of the basket. Although, in the past, RMB inclusion would have had negligible impact due to its limited weight, a much more significant impact can be expected in the next decades. If the objective is to reinforce the attractiveness of the SDR as a unit of account and a store of value through more stability, then a broadening of the SDR to the RMB could be appropriate, provided some flexibility is introduced in the Chinese exchange-rate regime. This issue of flexibility is de facto more important than that of "freely usable" to make the SDR more stable, at least in the short and medium run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper analyzes the ex-ante short-term impacts of the Chinese RMB appreciation on the Chinese and world economy, using a novel approach of modeling nominal exchange rate adjustment in the GTAP, a global CGE model. Scenario results show that Chinese economy will be affected negatively, with lower real GDP, lower employment rates, and a decline in the trade surplus. Chinese currency appreciation has positive impact on the GDP of the major countries and regions, although by a small margin. With higher Chinese exchange rate, trade balance for other trading partner countries improves with the exception of the U.S. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The travel cost method is the main technique used to evaluate the monetary value of recreational cultural ecosystem services of wetlands. While questionnaires still provide an important way to obtain tourist travel distances, salary rate coefficients, and travel rate data, but they are restricted by the data scale and the need for long-term monitoring. Therefore, the present study introduces mobile phone signal data into the travel cost method and establishes an evaluation model for recreational ecosystem services. By mining mobile phone signal data, the visitors' duration of stay, starting and ending coordinates, age, and gender data were collected in order to estimate the potential costs. Data from 25,087 recreationists were sampled at Pan'an Lake Wetland Park, Xuzhou, China, in 2018. Data mining found that (1) mobile phone signal data have unique advantages in determining the travel distance and cost of overnight accommodations; (2) recreationists were distributed among 229 cities, although 87.2% came from cities located within 500 km of Pan'an Lake Wetland Park, while 72.04% of all recreationists were Xuzhou locals; (3) the consumer surplus associated with visiting Pan'an Lake Wetland Park was 129.79 Chinese Yuan (CNY) per person and the average recreational value was 448.11 CNY. The evaluation results showed that the recreational value of Pan'an Lake Wetland Park was about 836 million CNY in 2018. This suggests that mobile phone signal data can be used as a new data source when assessing the recreational value of wetlands via the travel cost method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: We investigate the cross-correlations between Renminbi (CNY) and four major currencies (USD, EUR, JPY, and KRW) in the Renminbi currency basket, i.e., the cross-correlations of CNY–USD, CNY–EUR, CNY–JPY, and CNY–KRW. Qualitatively, using a statistical test in analogy to the Ljung-Box test, we find that cross-correlations significantly exist in CNY–USD, CNY–EUR, CNY–JPY, and CNY–KRW. Quantitatively, employing the detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA) method, we find that the cross-correlations of CNY–USD, CNY–EUR, CNY–JPY, and CNY–KRW are weakly persistent. We use the DCCA cross-correlation coefficient to quantify the level of cross-correlations and find the currency weight in the Renminbi currency basket is arranged in the order of USD>EUR>JPY >KRW. Using the method of rolling windows, which can capture the time-varying cross-correlation scaling exponents, we find that: (i) CNY and USD are positively cross-correlated over time, but the cross-correlations of CNY–USD are anti-persistent during the US sub-prime crisis and the European debt crisis. (ii) The cross-correlation scaling exponents of CNY-EUR have the cyclical fluctuation with a nearly two-year cycle. (iii) CNY–JPY has long-term negative cross-correlations, during the European debt crisis, but CNY and KRW are positively cross-correlated. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: It is a very interesting topic to forecast the movement direction of financial time series by machine learning methods. Among these machine learning methods, support vector machine (SVM) is the most effective and intelligent one. A new learning model is presented in this paper, called the polynomial smooth support vector machine (PSSVM). After being solved by Broyden–Fletcher–Goldfarb–Shanno (BFGS) method, optimal forecasting parameters are obtained. The exchange rate movement direction of RMB (Chinese renminbi) vs USD (United States Dollars) is investigated. Six indexes of Dow Jones China Index Series are used as the input. 4 sections with 180 time experiments have been completed. Many results show that the proposed learning model is effective and powerful. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The management of exchange rate risk has been a difficult task due to the high volatility of financial series. In this project, we treat exchange rate risks under stochastic model. In order to model them, VaR and CVaR are employed, which are a widely used tool in finance and engineering for measuring risk. The purpose of this research is to propose a new methodology for modeling exchange rate and estimating the tail-risk. In statistic estimation, we use MCMC method .Historical loss data of RMB/US and RMB/Euro is used, in order to explore the methodology''s efficiency and its potential benefits. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In this paper, the market value method, shadow engineering method, opportunity cost method, substitute expense method and data of investigate are used to value the ecosystem service functions of the plain forestry in China. The valuation reveals that the total ecological value is estimated up to RMB 3097.49×108 Yuan per annum, of which, about RMB 306.77×108 Yuan is of the output of standing trees, about RMB 903.15×108 Yuan of erosion control, about RMB 496.39×108 Yuan of carbon fixation and oxygen production, about RMB 948.41×108 Yuan of air quality purifying, about RMB 393.78×108 Yuan of reducing wind and stabilizing sand, and about RMB 48.98×108 Yuan of recreation and ecotourism. the ecosystem service functions of the plain forestry in China provides the average value of RMB 12346.26 Yuan/(hm2·a). Compared to the direct benefits of forest ecosystem, indirect benefits are more important for the survival of human being. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: China’s growing geo-economic clout globally has attracted significant research attention over the past few years. Rather than strictly adopt a national-specific and path-dependent perspective, this paper offers a nuanced perspective on the rationale of Chinese economic expansions overseas. I propose we view China’s growing geo-economic influence as a relational development, inextricably connected to broader changes in global capitalism, especially the failure of the US government to maintain confidence in the dollar. The paper probes critically the underlying logics of two recent developments: (1) the role of the China Investment Corporation (a new sovereign wealth fund) and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in accessing new markets worldwide; and (2) the policies to extend the global reach of the Chinese yuan. I argue that these phenomena are concatenated to China’s broader aim to secure domestic economic security, given its vast holdings of dollar reserves and its macroeconomic constraints through the maintenance of a fixed foreign exchange regime. These developments in turn contour and sustain the evolution of the variegated global system of capitalism. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This article offers an effective solution of forecasting the RMB exchange rate volatility during the financial crisis period. Based on the test of nonlinearity structure in the exchange rate system via the method of surrogate data, the optimal lag periods for each specific exchange rate series were computed by autocorrelation criterion (AC) approach, and then, the structure of multilayer perceptrons (MLP) and recurrent neural networks (RNN) were applied to build the homogeneous artificial neural network (ANN) model. The comparison of the forecast results of ANNs with different parameters shows that, according to the specific exchange rate series, the forecast performance of ANN models with different freedom of degrees has obvious differences in different forecast periods. The RNN model, which contains layer feedback process, has showed great ability to explain and forecast the RMB exchange rates volatility behavior. The optimal forecasting model for each RMB exchange rate volatility series has been found and explained. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a structural VAR model which extends the frameworks of Hoffmaister and Roldós [Hoffmaister, A. W., & Roldós, J. E. (2001). The sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in developing countries: Brazil and Korea. Journal of Macroeconomics, 23, 213–239] and Prasad [Prasad, E.S. (1999). International trade and the business cycle. Economic Journal, 109, 588–606]. The model is then used to analyse the sources of China''s trade balance fluctuations in the period of 1985–2000. Efforts are made to distinguish the forces which underlie the long-run trend in trade balance from those with transitory impacts. The effects of four types of shock are examined—the foreign supply shock, the domestic supply shock, the relative demand shock and the nominal shock. Among other findings, two emerge as important. First, the movements in China''s trade balance are largely the result of real shocks. Second, the Renminbi is undervalued, yet changes in the exchange rate bear little on the trade balance. Therefore, monetary measures would not suffice to redress China''s trade ‘imbalance’. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This study uses a computational general equilibrium model to examine the effects of the Chinese currency on the consumption, investment, trade, output, and welfare of different countries or regions. The results indicate a general decline in welfare across the globe. China is the biggest loser, with a reduction in output. Its domestic interest rate is likely to decline, leading to a potential liquidity trap. The policy implication of this research is that China should minimize changes in its currency value in the short run. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The resource exergy conversion in Chinese society in 1993 under the material product system (MPS) was investigated. Major resources that entered the society were divided into subgroups and analyzed in detail. The end use was broken down into ten end-use sectors: the forestry industry, food industry, iron and steel industry, nonferrous metal industry, chemical industry, textile industry, transportation, households, commerce, other industry. The total exergy input was 62.9EJ, which was 53.3GJ/cap. The total exergy output contained 11.66EJ or 9.88GJ/cap, which was 19% of the total exergy input. One RMB (Chinese Renminbi) yuan ($ 0.17) corresponded to 3.37MJ resource exergy output. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]