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The effects of using alternative sets of climatic predictor variables on the performance, spatial predictions and future projections of species distribution models (SDMs) and its consequences on extinction risk estimates have remained insufficiently studied. Here, we modelled the present and future potential distributions of 13 species of Heliotropium sect. Cochranea, a plant group with a centre of diversity in the Atacama Desert. We developed and applied a sequential procedure, starting from climate monthly variables, to derive six alternative sets of climatic predictor variables. We used them to fit models with eight modelling techniques within an ensemble forecasting framework, and derived climate change projections for each of them. We evaluated the effects of using these alternative sets of predictor variables on performance, spatial predictions and projections of SDMs using Generalised Linear Mixed Models (GLMM). Our Results show that the use of different sets of climatic predictor variables did not have a significant effect on overall metrics of model performance, but had significant effects on present and future spatial predictions and extinction risk estimates. This form of uncertainty in model-based estimates of extinction risk may need to be better acknowledged and quantified in future SDM studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Between January 1 and February 10, 2017, the central southern area of Chile faced several mega-fires events that were considered the second largest of the history, 518,174 ha were affected. The devastating consequences of this fire also include the loss of 12 human lives, as well as an enormous financial cost in the fight against fires. Due to the increase in global mega-fires and the increase in industrial forest plantations during the last decades in southern Chile, it is relevant to analyse how this industry interact with the occurrence of these events and their socio-environmental consequences. We contrasted the content of public and private sector stakeholders discourses with four discursive elements of a spatial nature of interest, Extension and continuity of forestry plantations, native ecosystems damage, affectation of non-forestry land cover and proximity to localities. The results show strong discrepancies for the discourses of mega-fires effects and consequences between the different stakeholders. Two relevant emerging issues were identified, the biodiversity value of native ecosystems affected as a forgotten element in the discourses of environmental-related government agencies and the role played to promote mega-fires by the forestry plantations spatial structure which is seen in the opposite way depending of stakeholder. • Chile Mega-fires 2017 had devasting socio-environmental consequences. • Public and private sector stakeholders discourses were contrasted using relevant spatial representations. • Strong discrepancies emerge for the discourses of mega-fires effects and consequences between the different stakeholders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]