Search

We estimate the maximum capability to reduce CO 2 by substituting private car travel for e-bike. We use spatial microsimulation (population-synthesis) to simulate the adult population within every small area in England, taking account of area type and geodemographic circumstances of the population. By estimating for individuals the distance they are capable of travelling by e-bike and the extent to which they are capable of replacing private car travel, we find the upper limit on the capability to reduce CO 2 by substituting car travel for e-bike use is 24.4 MTCO 2 p.a. (per annum) in England. CO 2 saving capability per person and per small area are highest (over 750 kg CO 2 per person p.a.) for residents of rural areas and the rural urban fringe. e-bikes offer major conurbations more modest CO 2 saving capability per person. We identify areas which are vulnerable to car related economic stress and also have high capability to replace car km with e-bikes, which if supported appropriately could contribute to equitable carbon reduction. Though capable of a very significant contribution to transport carbon reduction, other changes in technology and reduction in demand would also be necessary to reach zero emissions. Our results are directly relevant to policy actors internationally who require evidence on place-based decarbonisation capability, particularly where car dependence is high. The results highlight how context is important in any attempt to design policy for equitable carbon reduction both to influence discussion on what is possible, as well as practical identification of areas for targeted intervention. Digital indicators covering all zones in a country's geography such as this are also useful because of the rapid digitalisation of policy making. We provide code so that others can produce similar analyses in other countries (https://github.com/DrIanPhilips/e-bikeCarbonReductionCapability). • e-bikes have the capability to reduce car CO 2 emissions by 24.4 million tonnes p.a. in England). • e-bike carbon reduction capability is greatest in rural areas. • 3400 census zones have high capability to replace car travel with e-bikes and economic vulnerability to car dependence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Transport planning assumptions about housing, employment and transport are outdated. • Precarity in housing and employment systems often mean people have to move. • Uncertainty about when move influences decisions on accessibility and transport. • Implications for sustainable mobility, urban development and social welfare. The importance of the nexus between transport, housing location and employment location has long been identified as important to social welfare. In transport research this has however operated largely at either end of the spectrum of advantage. There exists a strong tradition, with roots in welfare economics, which explores those with choices and how they make trade-offs between where to live and work, the associated wage rate and the commute costs. At the other end is work which recognises the social costs for those that do not have access to transport and struggle to participate in employment. This paper focuses its attention on households that fall between these extremes and for whom the choice/no-choice dichotomy does not work. Through in-depth interviews with 46 people in the UK we find that the interactions between the location and, critically, security of both housing and employment plays a critical role in shaping what 'choices' exist. In particular, the findings explain why some households own cars although, on other metrics, they would not be expected to find ownership affordable, and how the security of housing tenure shapes long-term household trajectories. The literature on planning and travel behaviour has paid little or no attention to the security of housing and employment. This study suggests the importance of addressing this gap and refocussing attention on the different ways in which transport connects to wider planning and social policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

E -bike use in rural and tourist areas is under-researched and has potential to replace car journeys reducing greenhouse gas emissions and other impacts of car use. We studied the rural use of e-bikes in a tourist area (the Lake District National Park, UK) through Covid-19. Mixed methods were used; two waves (2020 & 2021) of a semi-panel quantitative survey; including open responses; supplemented by self-study field trips. Key findings include high levels of e-biking in a wet and hilly area by generally older individuals, including a high proportion of female respondents. Usage was higher in 2020, partly due to lower traffic levels during Covid restrictions, but relatively high usage was maintained in 2021. Users are substituting more car journeys than active travel and public transport trips, and amongst women, more errands than commutes. We found support for restraint of car use in the study area, along with support for secure e-bike parking, e-bike share schemes, and integration with public transport. The implications for planners and policymakers are that policies supporting rural e-biking may be well received if they form part of greener transport plans including e-bike facilities, integration with public transport and car restraint. Promotion of e-bike use needs to shift from an urban commuting focus, to also consider rural areas errands and leisure trips. National parks and other rural tourist areas may confidently assume that hills and weather do not always act as barriers. • E -bikes are being used to reduce car travel in a touristic, rural wet and hilly area and have decarbonisation potential. • There is support for car restraint in a UK National Park and a desire for secure e-bike storage. • E -bikes are being used for errands as well as commuting in a rural National Park. • Relatively high levels of use and support for e-bikes continue after easing of Covid restrictions in 2021. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In high-motorisation, car-dependent countries, transport affordability is intimately linked to the price of oil derived motor fuels, which may become increasingly volatile in the future due to global oil price movements and environmental taxation. The negative impacts of fuel price spikes in terms of increased household expenditure and economic stress are unevenly spatially and socially distributed. Previous research has found that vulnerability to fuel price increases is higher in peripheral, peri-urban and rural areas, and that low income tends to be co-located with high car dependence and low vehicle fuel efficiency, with a compounding effect on vulnerability. The goal of this article is to test these hypotheses for England, providing new evidence on spatial patterns of vulnerability to fuel price increases at the small-area level. We propose a composite vulnerability indicator combining data on income, accessibility, vehicle inspection and vehicle registration for 2011. Within English city-regions , we find little evidence of the socially regressive patterns previously identified in the literature. This is explained by the persistent concentration of poverty in urban cores, as well as by the poor fuel economy of the vehicle fleet in wealthier areas, due to the prevalence of powerful vehicles there. On the other hand, our analysis suggests that the impacts of fuel price increases would be very unequal between city-regions , as the least sensitive metropolitan area (Greater London) is also characterised by high levels of adaptive capacity. We conclude by setting out an agenda for future research on spatial vulnerability to fuel price increases. • Vulnerability to fuel price increases is higher in the periurban North of England. • Income and car dependence are positively correlated at small-area level in England. • London is very resilient due to high income and low car dependence and expenditure. • Vehicle fuel efficiency is inconsequential to spatial patterns of vulnerability. • Oil vulnerability research must be sensitive to urban socio-spatial configurations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents a study to explore the relationship between travel poverty and social disadvantage at the local geographical level. The main aim of the research was to identify the extent to which the revealed travel behavioural outcomes of the study participants are due to personal social constraints or environmental conditions in their residential locations. Specifically, we sought to identify if the greater access to local amenities and public transport services of inner city residents led to an increase in their daily travel activities when compared with their urban peripheral counterparts. The research analysed data from a personal travel survey and one-day travel diary with 502 adults aged between 16 and 65 years in two different deprived areas in Merseyside, North West England. Our analysis is somewhat hampered by the small sample size, but the modelled results suggest that more trips, and longer journey distances do not necessarily imply greater social inclusion. The geographically weighted regression models (GWR) highlighted that the physical location of where people live within the city is more influential on their trip-making patterns than social determinants such as household income, age, gender, and/or employment status. Street connectivity, the level of bus services and neighbourhood safety were all particularly significant for determining spatial variations in the daily trips that were undertaken, with more trips being undertaken where there was a greater density of street nodes, bus stops and where people felt safer at night. This highlights the need for local transport and urban policymakers to carefully consider and target these micro-scale factors when attempting to introduce transport interventions to reduce social exclusion amongst low-income urban populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• CO 2 and NO x emission trends from the van sector in Great Britain are investigated. • Scenarios designed based on phasing out internal combustion engine vans by 2030. • The tailpipe net-zero target will be reached by 2050 under all scenarios. • A rapid transition to electric vans could achieve a substantial emission reduction. As a major emission contributor with significant growth potential, the light goods vehicles (vans) play an important part in achieving net-zero. In 2020 the UK government committed to phasing out sales of new internal combustion engine (ICE) vans by 2030, but the impact of the policy and how far are we to decarbonize the entire van fleet by 2050 is unclear. This paper investigates the CO 2 and NO x emission trends in the van sector in Great Britain under the 2030 ICE phase-out. ECCo model 1 1 http://www.element-energy.co.uk/sectors/low-carbon-transport/project-case-studies/ is used to forecast the future van population by powertrain. The annual van mileage is estimated based on the van activity survey 2 2 https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/van-statistics-2019-to-2020. The instantaneous emission model PHEM, NAEI emissions inventory and remote sensing measurements are used to parameterize real-world driving emission factors of CO 2 and NO x. Scenarios have been set out to assess the impact of enablers and barriers affecting the pace of emission reductions. Results suggest vans are on track to reach the tailpipe net-zero target by 2050 under all scenarios, and the speed of NO x reduction is even faster. A rapid transition to battery electric vans in the early to mid-2020s will significantly lower CO 2 , with associated estimated monetary benefits of £1.3 billion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] Concepts of ‘commuter oil vulnerability’ are considered. [•] Four quantitative metrics are developed and applied to a regional case study. [•] Results showed variable geographical and individual level vulnerabilities. [•] Individual circumstances affect vulnerability, even in seeming ‘resilient’ zones. [•] Ultimately, the distribution of oil vulnerability depends on visions of the future. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Car fleets across much of Europe have undergone a process of dieselisation over the past 20 years. Understanding the factors driving this process is therefore important for sustainable transport policy, with implications for how governments steer their national car fleets towards ultra-low emission vehicles in the future. At a general level, this paper contributes to this wider body of work which aims to understand the factors which led to the transition from petrol to diesel. Specifically, the paper investigates whether the availability of relatively cheap diesel fuel in the Republic of Ireland affected the rate of diesel car ownership in Northern Ireland. A geographic approach is used, which involves generating spatial variables measuring nearness to the Republic of Ireland and comparing these with the proportion of the local car stock that is fuelled by diesel. A series of spatial regression models are specified to determine if this association between nearness to the Republic and diesel ownership persists after accounting for the effect of socioeconomic, travel, and household characteristics. The results support the hypothesis that the availability of cheaper fuel in the Republic of Ireland is not only generating fuel-tourism, but is also affecting the structure of the car fleet registered in Northern Ireland. The findings are relevant beyond the case study and imply that the structure of a country’s car fleet is not only dependent on domestic policies, but is also affected by the policies of neighbouring countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]