Search

Floorspace spatial development is indisputably the most essential indicator to reflect the spatial distribution of activities especially in mega cities. To forecast the housing floorspace distribution, a three-step Floorspace Development Model (FDM) is developed in this study based on indicators of permissible development constrains, floorspace areas, and house rents. Beijing is selected as the case study area in consideration of its high house price and limited space. Since government plays a key role in the estate development in China, the housing floorspace is estimated through three steps including unconstrained floorspace estimation, constrained floorspace estimation, and zonal floorspace allocation. This FDM model is applicable to forecast the developers' decisions based on market rules and government policies, which combines China's special conditions with prediction method perfectly for the first time. Based on this model, floorspace distribution and development prediction can be achieved, laying a solid foundation for assessments of servicing, industrial and educational floorspace development and distribution at urban scale especially mega cities in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Capable tools are desired for urban spatial policies planning in China to safeguard its sustainable development strategy. This study develops an activity-based Land Use/Transport Interaction (LUTI) model to forecast the urban activity impacts of the land-use policies. Essentially, its endogenized and interactive features in residential and employment distribution modeling mark it out from the traditional Lowry models. The LUTI model proposed consists of four models, i.e., a transport sub-model, a residential location model, an employment location model and a real estate rent model. It is then applied to the Beijing metropolitan area to characterize the urban activity evolution trend under the land use policies of recent years. The results show that with the increasing number of floorspace developed on the outskirts, more residents and employers are relocating there and sub-centers are formed to divide the service of central Beijing. This trend is consistent with the objective of government planning to develop more sub-centers around central Beijing by decentralizing industries to guide residential population growth patterns. The model provides a capable planning tool for urban spatial policy makers and demonstrates its first success in Beijing scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study developed a migration model, termed the inter-city migration model (IcMM), based on the "push-pull" theory to model China's inter-city population migration. The IcMM is comprised of three sub-models: the pull, push, and distance impedance models. The IcMM simulates two-way inter-city migration based on cities' pull factors, push factors, and distance impedance. The IcMM is a strict implementation of the "push-pull" theory. Model verification shows that it can achieve good results in simulating China's inter-city migration. The three sub-models included in the IcMM are loosely coupled and easy to expand. The regional applicability and extension of the proposed model is also discussed. • A migration model was developed to simulate population migration between city-pairs in China. • The model simulates migration based on city push and pull factors along with distance impedance. • The three loosely-coupled sub-models make the proposed model easy to operate and expand. • Influencing factors and mechanisms of intercity migration in China are identified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the past decade, China's high-speed railway (HSR) system has expanded rapidly and become the longest and most complex network in the world. To fully exploit the HSR dividend, many cities have constructed HSRs in new locations, triggering urban land use change, especially around the HSR stations. This study has used the difference-in-difference (DID) method to explore the effect of HSRs on urban land use using long-term nighttime light (NTL) data. The main conclusions are that the operation of HSRs has increased the intensity of urban land use by about 4.4%, with the land use effect of the "renewed HSR stations" being significantly higher than that of the "newly-built stations"; further the development of tertiary industry has promoted a siphoning effect, that is the spillover of HSR stations in large cities is strengthened relative to that for small cities. Based on these results, the study further analyzed the performance of areas with new HSR installations and the factors controlling the inter-city heterogeneities. • The operation of HSR increases the intensity of land use around stations by 4.4%. • Land use effect of the renewed HSR stations is higher than that of the newly-built. • The growth of tertiary industry would promote the siphon effect in small cities. • The total urban population and the performance of HSR new areas are nonlinear. • The improvement of railway connectivity breed a siphon effect for small cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]