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The Walker Circulation (WC) is an east-west trending band of atmospheric circulation cells along the equator and the predominant controller of heat and moisture transport in the tropics. Its variability is closely linked to the sea-surface temperature (SST) changes across the Pacific, the Indian and the Atlantic Oceans and can have pronounced effects on the humidity regimes of the adjacent continents. In recent years, the evolution of the WC during the Plio- and Pleistocene epochs has been intensely studied in the context of the effectiveness of the tropics in modulating global climate change (e.g., the intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciation). However, the onset of the modern WC pattern as well as its global impact during the Plio- and Pleistocene is controversially assessed in the literature. For its onset, previous studies have suggested dates ranging between 2.4 and 0.8 million years ago (Myr), while its argued impact ranges from – crucially influencing the increase of Northern Hemisphere ice sheet growth by channelling heat and moisture from the tropics into the high latitudes to – having no effect on global ice volume changes. In order to achieve a comprehensive understanding of the spatiotemporal evolution of the WC during this time frame, we statistically analysed 30 globally distributed SST records covering the low and high latitudes between 3.5 and 1.5 Myr, encompassing the Late Pliocene to Early Pleistocene. We utilized a statistical change-point regression model to determine significant change points in the SST evolution of the (sub)-tropics and high latitudes that potentially relate to changes in the WC. We find that the WC experienced a multifaceted evolution between the Late Pliocene and the Early Pleistocene with significant transitional steps at ∼2.7 and ∼2.1 - Ma. Our results suggest after the Late Pliocene, a pre-modern WC set in, which was characterized by a progressively strengthened Pacific Walker Cell alongside a weakened Indian Ocean Walker Cell. This change was potentially triggered by the constriction of the Indonesian seaway, an important transmitter between the Pacific and Indian Ocean. The ensuing mode of the WC intensified until ∼2.1 Myr, when SST values around the global scale signalled a progressive strengthening of the Indian Walker Cell in phase with the progressive strengthening of the Pacific and Atlantic Cells. Our findings indicate that a shift from a pre-modern to a modern-like WC potentially only occurred during the mid-Pleistocene. • Crucial evolution steps of the Walker Circulation during the Plio-Pleistocene at 2.75 and 2.1 Ma. • Neither synchronous nor geographical uniform response of low latitudes to Walker Circulation changes. • Modern Walker Circulation emerged potentially after 1.5 Ma. • Gateway and insolation changes drove Walker Circulation changes during the Plio-Pleistocene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Two-sample experiments (paired or unpaired) are often used to analyze treatment effects in life and environmental sciences. Quantifying an effect can be achieved by estimating the difference in center of location between a treated and a control sample. In unpaired experiments, a shift in scale is also of interest. Non-normal data distributions can thereby impose a serious challenge for obtaining accurate confidence intervals for treatment effects. To study the effects of non-normality we analyzed robust and non-robust measures of treatment effects: differences of averages, medians, standard deviations, and normalized median absolute deviations in case of unpaired experiments, and average of differences and median of differences in case of paired experiments. A Monte Carlo study using bivariate lognormal distributions was carried out to evaluate coverage performances and lengths of four types of nonparametric bootstrap confidence intervals, namely normal, Student''s t, percentile, and BCa for the estimated measures. The robust measures produced smaller coverage errors than their non-robust counterparts. On the other hand, the robust versions gave average confidence interval lengths approximately 1.5 times larger. In unpaired experiments, BCa confidence intervals performed best, while in paired experiments, Student''s t was as good as BCa intervals. Monte Carlo results are discussed and recommendations on data sizes are presented. In an application to physiological source–sink manipulation experiments with sunflower, we quantify the effect of an increased or decreased source–sink ratio on the percentage of unfilled grains and the dry mass of a grain. In an application to laboratory experiments with wastewater, we quantify the disinfection effect of predatory microorganisms. The presented bootstrap method to compare two samples is broadly applicable to measured or modeled data from the entire range of environmental research and beyond. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Paleoclimatic time series are often unevenly spaced in time, making it difficult to obtain an accurate estimate of their red-noise spectrum. A Fortran 90 program (REDFIT) is presented that overcomes this problem by fitting a first-order autoregressive (AR1) process, being characteristic for many climatic processes, directly to unevenly spaced time series. Hence, interpolation in the time domain and its inevitable bias can be avoided. The program can be used to test if peaks in the spectrum of a time series are significant against the red-noise background from an AR1 process. Generated and paleoclimatic time series are used to demonstrate the capability of the program. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Cross-spectral analysis is commonly used in climate research to identify joint variability between two variables and to assess the phase (lead/lag) between them. Here we present a Fortran 90 program (REDFIT-X) that is specially developed to perform cross-spectral analysis of unevenly spaced paleoclimate time series. The data properties of climate time series that are necessary to take into account are for example data spacing (unequal time scales and/or uneven spacing between time points) and the persistence in the data. Lomb–Scargle Fourier transform is used for the cross-spectral analyses between two time series with unequal and/or uneven time scale and the persistence in the data is taken into account when estimating the uncertainty associated with cross-spectral estimates. We use a Monte Carlo approach to estimate the uncertainty associated with coherency and phase. False-alarm level is estimated from empirical distribution of coherency estimates and confidence intervals for the phase angle are formed from the empirical distribution of the phase estimates. The method is validated by comparing the Monte Carlo uncertainty estimates with the traditionally used measures. Examples are given where the method is applied to paleoceanographic time series. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The detection of periodic fluctuations is important in the quest for a deeper understanding of the drivers of past climates in the interests of being better able to understand the climate changes which are likely in the decades to come. Paleoclimatological information derived from natural archives is typically accompanied by chronological uncertainty and variable temporal resolution, both of which complicate the analysis of their time series and both are often ignored. This has, however, changed in recent years with the development of statistical tools supporting, e.g. spectral analysis tasks, which aim to take these problems into account. In cases where the original data is no longer available, it may not be possible to assess the reliability of published reports of periods detected. In this study we aim to test/model whether or not a signal for a given period can be robustly detected from a sedimentary proxy record considering its mean sampling resolution and degree of chronological uncertainty. To achieve this aim, annually sampled time series free of gaps and timescale error were modeled with white or red noise, resampled in a controlled way to simulate different time resolutions with timescale uncertainty, ultimately mimicking a real-life sedimentary record. In fact, an ensemble of potential timescales was retrieved, and their spectral characteristics explored. It was found that: (i) although sampling frequency (i.e. temporal spacing) is limiting from the side of the smallest-period, (ii) at higher mean sampling resolutions, it can ameliorate the detectability of periodic signals even in the presence of timescale error; furthermore, (iii) the increase in mean sampling resolution is less influential in an autocorrelated time series, since more information is retained due to the phenomenon of persistence. An online tool called CUSP was also developed, which gives a suggestion whether a given period can be considered to be present in a robust way utilizing our test results. [Display omitted] • Pseudoproxy time series modeled with chronological uncertainty and variable temporal spacing. • Time series derived from white noise and red noise periodic signals separately. • Each chronological uncertainty and mean sampling resolution pair considered. • Threshold determined above which periodic signals cannot be robustly detected. • Developed tool helps testing the robustness of periodic signals in sedimentary records. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: We analyzed published records of terrigenous dust flux from marine sediments off subtropical West Africa, the eastern Mediterranean Sea, and the Arabian Sea, and lake records from East Africa using statistical methods to detect trends, rhythms and events in Plio-Pleistocene African climate. The critical reassessment of the environmental significance of dust flux and lake records removes the apparent inconsistencies between marine vs. terrestrial records of African climate variability. Based on these results, major steps in mammalian and hominin evolution occurred during episodes of a wetter, but highly variable climate largely controlled by orbitally induced insolation changes in the low latitudes. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Proxy reconstructions of precipitation from central India, north-central China, and southern Vietnam reveal a series of monsoon droughts during the mid 14th–15th centuries that each lasted for several years to decades. These monsoon megadroughts have no analog during the instrumental period. They occurred in the context of widespread thermal and hydrologic climate anomalies marking the onset of the Little Ice Age (LIA) and appear to have played a major role in shaping significant regional societal changes at that time. New tree ring-width based reconstructions of monsoon variability suggest episodic and widespread reoccurrences of monsoon megadroughts continued throughout the LIA. Although the El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) plays an important role in monsoon variability, there is no conclusive evidence to suggest that these megadroughts were associated with anomalous sea surface temperature anomalies that were solely the result of ENSO-like variability in the tropical Pacific. Instead, the causative mechanisms of these megadroughts may reside in protracted changes in the synoptic-scale monsoon climatology of the Indian Ocean. Today, the intra-seasonal monsoon variability is dominated by ‘active’ and the ‘break’ spells – two distinct oscillatory modes of monsoon that have radically different synoptic scale circulation and precipitation patterns. We suggest that protracted locking of the monsoon into the “break-dominated” mode – a mode that favors reduced precipitation over the Indian sub-continent and SE Asia and enhanced precipitation over the equatorial Indian Ocean, may have caused these exceptional droughts. Impetus for periodic locking of the monsoon into this mode may have been provided by cooler temperatures at the extratropical latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere which forced the mean position of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) further southward in the Indian Ocean. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: High-resolution oxygen isotope (δ18O) profiles of Holocene stalagmites from four caves in Northern and Southern Oman and Yemen (Socotra) provide detailed information on fluctuations in precipitation along a latitudinal transect from 12°N to 23°N. δ18O values reflect the amount of precipitation which is primarily controlled by the mean latitudinal position of the ITCZ and dynamics of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM). During the early Holocene rapidly decreasing δ18O values indicate a rapid northward displacement in the mean latitudinal position of the summer ITCZ and the associated ISM rainfall belt, with decadal- to centennial-scale changes in monsoon precipitation correlating well with high-latitude temperature variations recorded in Greenland ice cores. During the middle to late Holocene the summer ITCZ continuously migrated southward and monsoon precipitation decreased gradually in response to decreasing solar insolation, a trend, which is also recorded in other monsoon records from the Indian and East Asian monsoon domains. Importantly, there is no evidence for an abrupt middle Holocene weakening in monsoon precipitation. Although abrupt monsoon events are apparent in all monsoon records, they are short-lived and clearly superimposed on the long-term trend of decreasing monsoon precipitation. For the late Holocene there is an anti-correlation between ISM precipitation in Oman and inter-monsoon (spring/autumn) precipitation on Socotra, revealing a possible long-term change in the duration of the summer monsoon season since at least 4.5kaBP. Together with the progressive shortening of the ISM season, gradual southward retreat of the mean summer ITCZ and weakening of the ISM, the total amount of precipitation decreased in those areas located at the northern fringe of the Indian and Asian monsoon domains, but increased in areas closer to the equator. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

High-resolution stable isotope profiles of three contemporaneously deposited stalagmites from a shallow cave in Southern Oman provide an annually resolved record of Indian Ocean monsoon rainfall variability for the past 780 years. Uranium-series age dating and counts of annual growth bands enable an excellent age calibration. Although modern speleothems do not grow in perfect isotopic equilibrium, oxygen isotope ratios (δ18O) are a proxy for the amount of monsoon rainfall. This is supported by the statistically significant correlation between δ18O and the thickness of annual bands, whereas δ18O is inversely correlated with annual band thickness. Additionally, overlapping δ18O profiles are very similar in pattern and range, indicating that sample specific noise did not blur the climatic signal. The longest oxygen isotope profile, derived from stalagmite S3, clearly shows the transition at ∼1320 AD from a generally wetter Medieval Warm Period to a drier Little Ice Age that lasted from approximately AD 1320–1660 in Southern Oman. The decrease in monsoon rainfall since the 1960s is also obvious in meteorological records from Northern Africa and India, indicating that our speleothem-based rainfall records do not only reflect local monsoon rainfall variability. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The hypothesis of a connection between the onset (or intensification) of Northern Hemisphere Glaciation, the stepwise increase in African aridity (and climate variability), and an important mammalian (including hominin) species turnover is a textbook example of the initiation of a scientific idea and its propagation in science. It is, however, also an example of the persistent popularity of a hypothesis despite mounting evidence against it. A critical review of key publications on the topic and statistical re-analysis of key records of global ice volume and African climate leads to three conclusions: (1) The Northern Hemisphere Glaciation was a gradual process occurring between ∼3.5 and 2.5 Ma, not a single event at ∼2.8 Ma or at any other time. (2) A consistent stepwise (+/−0.2 Ma) transition toward greater aridity in Africa at ∼2.8 Ma does not exist; instead, there are regionally different, gradual transitions partly in connection with the intensification of the Northern Hemisphere Glaciation, but above all with the establishment of the tropical Walker Circulation after ∼2 Ma. (3) Mammalian (including hominin) species turnovers at this time also appear to have been gradual, rather than stepwise. • We falsified the hypothesis of a connection between Northern Hemisphere Glaciation, African climate and human evolution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]