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This paper presents results of empirical research with the broad aim of exploring societal responses to CO 2 storage, framed around the concept of social license to operate (SLO). We describe a mixed method approach incorporating stakeholder interviews and focus groups deployed in two case study locations in the UK. The approach helps us to build up an understanding of the social context in which Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) will be introduced, in terms of the specific local conditions and with reference to the influence of local experiences of other technologies (such as hydraulic fracturing (fracking), for example). This understanding is then used to guide further empirical research, from which we assess the extent to which an SLO for CCS is emerging. Results show that perceptions of trust and confidence in key institutions to safely manage projects are highly dependent not just on the track record of the organisations but are strongly influenced by past experiences with different technologies. While the indications for achieving an SLO for CCS are currently positive, consolidating and maintaining that support depends on the evolving social, industrial and political landscape. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Projected growth in the international shipping industry is set to outstrip CO 2 reductions arising from incremental improvements to technology and operations currently being planned and implemented. Using original scenarios, this paper demonstrates for the first time that it is possible for a nation's shipping to make a fair contribution to meeting global climate change commitments, but that this requires transformation of the sector. The scale and nature of technology change varies depending on the level of demand and how this is satisfied. The scenarios show that to develop successful marine mitigation policy, it is essential to consider the interdependencies between ship speed, level and pattern of demand for services, and the extent and rate of innovation in propulsion technology. Across the scenarios, it is difficult to foresee how deep decarbonisation can be achieved without an immediate, fleet-wide speed reduction; and a land-based energy-system transition strongly influences shipping demand, which in turn, influences the extent of required low-carbon propulsion technology change. Setting the industry on a 2 °C heading requires multifaceted and near-term changes in the shipping sector, but these are unlikely to materialise without a major shift by stakeholders to realise new and innovative deep decarbonisation policies in the coming decade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the complex ecosystem of organisations involved in the proposed role out of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the UK. Through analysis of interview and twitter data, it focuses on the flow of knowledge flows within online and offline networks, highlighting how in this case, CCS retains a niche audience, with communication and information flows concentrated with industry and stakeholder networks at a local and regional scale, as opposed to reaching broader national policy makers, and the wider publics. This brings a unique insight into the construction of networks across intersecting sectors of this critical technology and highlights how for successful implementation CCS, actors may need to reach out beyond their existing network. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper summarises results from empirical research with the broad aim of exploring societal responses to CO 2 storage, framed around the concept of social license to operate (SLO). The essential characteristic of SLO is based on a partnership between communities, operators and government and is thus dependent on a variety of factors that contribute to building trust between the stakeholders. Drawing on data from media analysis, stakeholder interviews and focus groups deployed in two locations in the UK, we explore social factors that could influence an emerging SLO for CO 2 storage in the UK, drawing lessons from an analogous technology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the role and implications of bio-energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) for addressing the climate change mitigation challenge. Framed within the context of the latest emissions budgets, and their associated uncertainty, we present a summary of the contribution of BECCS within the Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) scenarios used by the climate change community. Within this discussion we seek to shed light on two important areas. Firstly, that BECCS is a central, but often hidden element of many of the modelling work that underpins climate policy from the global to the national scale. The second area we address are the assumptions for BECCS embedded within IAM models, and the wider system consequences of these implied levels of deployment. In light of these challenges, we question whether BECCS can deliver what is anticipated of it within existing climate change policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses three historical trade case studies, oil trade, bulk commodities and containers, to explore and better understand the drivers of shipped trade. This qualitative work explores the relevance of established drivers, such as economic growth, and identifies additional factors which have shaped trade patterns. This work adds a new dimension to quantitative approaches, such as cross-country regression analyses, which although are often used to ascertain the importance of potential drivers for trade may face difficulties, particularly when drivers are complex or interlinked. Our analysis considers inter-related economic and political factors which have influenced changes in trade patterns. The results confirm the importance of elements such as economic growth, openness (such as a lack of tariffs), geography and transport costs and for each of the case studies explains the context which gave rise to these drivers. This analysis affords three main conclusions, firstly distinct trading regions may react differently to similar circumstances, secondly, policies which can influence both supply and demand can have a significant impact on established trade patterns and finally initially isolated elements can (with the benefit of hindsight) prove to have had a significant impact on trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The key enabler of international trade, shipping is heavily reliant on fossil fuels and responsible for approximately 2% of global carbon emissions. For the sector to reduce its emissions in line with climate change objectives, a wholesale transition is required from the current carbon intensive shipping system to one with a lower climatic impact. Drawing on the multi-level perspective from the socio-technical transitions literature, this paper focuses on two technological developments which could reduce the emissions from shipping - slow steaming and wind propulsion. Outlining the landscape changes which may hinder or support the incorporation of each of these innovations into the broader shipping regime the paper shows how slow steaming has been accommodated within this regime, in response to high oil prices and the economic downturn. In the longer term it concludes that additional policy measures may be required to ensure slow steaming persists should landscape pressures reduce. Oil prices, and the environmental agenda, are driving the development of wind propulsion, but more needs to be done to support those companies which seek to demonstrate and commercialise modern incarnations of the original pioneers of the seas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2003, China implemented market-oriented reforms to its electric power industry, aimed at improving the generation efficiency of its thermal power plants. In this paper, we use the polynomial functions, PLS (partial least squares) algorithm, and generation efficiency data from 1993 to 2012 to evaluate the effect of these reforms. Empirical analysis shows that the reforms caused a sudden down shift of 0.142 kW h per kg SCE (standard coal equivalent) to the “natural” generation efficiency curve of the thermal power industry, resulting in 555.8 million tons of SCE of wasted fossil energy during 2003–2012. This was mainly due to the non-implementation of electricity price bidding. To improve the generation efficiency of the thermal power plants, market competition should be further introduced into China's electric power industry as a matter of urgency. The major policy adjustment directions include: a) Electricity price bidding should be promoted by sub-region according to the unified trading rules designed by the central government; b) Over-the-counter transaction should be permitted; as well as c) Dynamic incentive mechanisms for renewable energy development should be established. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Clusters approach can support industrial decarbonisation, essential for net zero. • Cluster activities mapped against seven pillars of social licence to operate (SLO). • Industrial decarbonisation needs social licence for different scales and systems. • Stakeholder narratives and networks support CCS SLO in industrial clusters. • Important to recognise local benefits, align priorities and develop partnerships. This paper explores the opportunities for, and progress in, establishing a social licence to operate (SLO) for CCS in industrial clusters in the UK, focusing on the perspectives of key stakeholders. The evolution of narratives and networks relating to geographical clusters as niches for CCS in industrial decarbonisation is evaluated in relation to seven pillars supporting SLO. Evidence is drawn from a combination of cluster mapping, documentary analysis and stakeholder interviews to identify the wider contexts underpinning industrial decarbonisation, stakeholder networks, interaction and communication, critical narratives, the conditions for establishing trust and confidence, different scales of social licence and maintaining a SLO. The delivery of a sustainable industrial decarbonisation strategy will depend on multiple layers of social licence involving discourses at different scales and, potentially, for different systems (heat, transport, different industrial processes). Despite setbacks as a result of funding cancellations and changes to government policy, the UK is positioned to be at the forefront of CCS deployment. While there is a high ambition and a strong narrative from government of the urgency to accelerate projects involving CCS, clear coordinated strategy and funding frameworks are necessary to build confidence that UK policy is both compatible with net zero and economically viable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Explorations of emerging urban spatial futures increasingly depend on the empathetic interweaving of broad political ideals with grounded democratic involvement. The collaborative planning paradigm (CP) and participatory action research (PAR) have thus gained traction globally, since they centralise meaningful involvement of those with lived experiences of the local environment. Building upon this, we argue that 'utopia' can offer an alternative paradigm that enhances citizen engagement, by refocusing urban design and planning explorations away from a problem-based orientation to a values-based one. Through a four-stage collaborative framework: 1. Experiencing the Space, 2. Sketching of Utopias, 3. Sharing of Utopias, and 4. Collaborative Analysis, participatory utopian sketching offers the possibility for richer and wider citizen engagement in urban development processes. The novelty of the framework is its tenets of collaboration, citizen inclusivity, playful experimentation, and iterative reflective activity. Its flexibility also allows for multiple real-world applications in the making of urban spatial futures. We demonstrate the methodological framework of participatory utopian sketching using an empirical pilot study examining the spatial imagination of solar panel futures within a neighbourhood located in Luleå, the provincial capital of Northern Sweden. Thereafter, we provide elucidations on the framework's opportunities and challenges in wider urban design and planning discourse. • Participatory utopian sketching offers a values-based approach to urban planning. • Built upon utopia, collaborative planning and participatory action research paradigms. • The framework enriches collaboration and inclusiveness in citizen engagements. • It entails playful sketching experimentations and iterative reflection. • A pilot study elucidates the framework's implications in wider discourse. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Public perceptions of CCS are seen as crucial in terms of the deployment. Recent opposition to CO2 storage projects, such as Vattenfall’s Schwarze Pump project in northern Germany, demonstrates that addressing public concerns is a crucial factor in securing support for a CO2 scheme. Risk communication will be affected by multiple issues such as the language used, trust in the communicating actors and the opportunities for dialogue. The literature on siting of facilities also cautions that in many cases there in a mismatch between experts and lay perceptions of risk. This paper compares expert and lay perceptions of the risks associated with CCS in two case study areas and is based on the work undertaken in the CASSEM project, which is developing tools for the evaluation of CO2 storage potential in saline aquifer. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In recent years debates about public involvement in the decision making process regarding science and technology have been the focus of much debate. This paper uses the deployment of carbon capture and storage technology as a case study to explore both the theoretical and practical reasons why the public need to be consulted on such issues. It concludes that a social contract approach is far more effective than the traditional technocratic approaches as it ensues the lay public are fully informed and understands the rational behind the decisions. Furthermore, if deliberative approaches are employed it provides people with the opportunity to enter in to debate with experts, decide whether they are trustworthy and take ownership of the decisions. As this paper demonstrates when the issues are highly complex and controversial, as they are with CCS, such approaches offer an effective way of communicating information and can significantly reduce opposition aiding implementation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology has been endorsed by the IPCC and the UK government as a key mitigation option but remains on the cusp of wide-scale commercial deployment. Here we present a technology roadmap for CCS, depicted in terms of external factors and short- and long-term pathways for its development, moving from a demonstration to commercialisation era. The roadmap was been developed through a two-phase process of stakeholder engagement; the second phase of this, a high level stakeholder workshop, is documented here. This approach has provided a unique overview of the current status, potential and barriers to CCS deployment in the UK. In addition to the roadmap graphics and more detailed review, five consensus conclusions emerging from the workshop are presented. These describe the need for a monetary CO2 value and the financing of carbon capture and storage schemes; the lack of technical barriers to the deployment of demonstration scale CCS plant; the role of demonstration projects in developing a robust regulatory framework; key storage issues; the need for a long-term vision in furthering both the technical and non-technical development of CCS. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The transition to a low carbon energy system must occur in the context of numerous uncertainties that occur at all scales, from the extent of the carbon reduction required through to the technologies and policies which will bring the reductions about. Against this background, the Tyndall Decarbonisation Scenarios project has sought to develop a new approach for the generation of energy scenarios, which focuses explicitly upon the transition to a low carbon energy system. Using a backcasting approach, the scenarios explore areas of uncertainty in relation to a low carbon energy system and how the low carbon transition may be brought about. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper addresses the evolution of maritime transport demand in response to global climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts. The complexity of the global shipping system makes predicting volumes and patterns of long-term future international maritime trade a challenging task which is best explored by building scenarios rather than 'precise' forecasts. We present four contrasting scenarios of international maritime trade out to 2050, available in high resolution in terms of the dimensions studied (regions, countries, commodities, decades), which are consistent with high and low levels of global CO 2 mitigation and associated climate impacts. The scenarios project trade increasing to between two and four times the 2010 value by 2050. Scenarios characterised by low temperature increases and material intensity lead to the lower bound trade increase with high trade growth in bioenergy commodities. Unfettered production growth across countries, high temperature increases and material intensity lead to a quadrupling of trade across energy, containerised, dry and wet commodities. The estimated range is lower than those in existing scenarios and forecasts in which globalisation is assumed to continue apace. The scenarios which project the highest growth presupposes both limited decarbonisation (in contrast to the Paris Agreement) and continued growth in expanding markets. The scenarios therefore become a valuable policy and decision-making tool to address technological and operational change required of the shipping sector, if it is to deliver mitigation in line with the Paris Agreement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rapid growth of photovoltaic (PV) installations in recent years has largely been driven by government incentive schemes that make PV an attractive option for building owners seeking to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions and energy costs. As government incentives are reduced or withdrawn the incorporation of battery storage, to lower building electricity grid imports through increased on-site PV self-consumption, is an option to sustain rooftop PV uptake. This study combines a life cycle assessment approach and discounted cash flow analysis to assess the CO 2 and financial impact of adding battery storage to a PV assemblage in the context of future incentive withdrawal, electricity system decarbonisation and changing technology costs. An example non-domestic building in the UK with a 20 kW mono-crystalline silicon PV and lithium-ion battery storage is modelled. With electricity grid decarbonisation in line with the Paris Climate Change Agreement, the PV and battery system here reduces the building's CO 2 emissions by 17% (19tCO 2 ) compared with the grid-only reference over a 30year lifetime. The analysis also highlights that adding battery storage does not necessarily increase C0 2 savings achieved by PV alone for the building, if grid decarbonisation is considered. PV systems without batteries in the UK are however found to be viable in 2020 without government incentives. For system considered here the battery costs of <£334/kWh available capacity are needed in 2020 for batteries to positively affect the financial performance of PV. The study therefore concludes that UK battery costs have to continue to reduce rapidly, or additional revenue from providing electricity system services is needed to make batteries financially attractive in lower insolation areas like the UK. Policy to reduce electricity system CO 2 through building integrated battery uptake requires better understanding of the net system CO 2 impact in line with other changes in electricity generation and demand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To guide the adjustment of the electricity policies of the 13th Five-year Plan and the present market-oriented reforms, this paper performs a scenario analysis of the CO 2 emissions from China's electric power industry. By using a logarithmic linear equation to explain the relationship between CO 2 emissions and their influence factors, a hybrid model to forecast the “natural” development of the explanatory variables, and emission-relative data from 2001 to 2013 to estimate the equation parameters, five scenarios are designed, and the CO 2 emissions of each scenario are forecasted for the period of 2016–2030. On the basis of the modeling results, the sensitivity and contribution of each variable are also measured. Empirical analysis draws the following conclusions. (1) The electric power industry of China cannot easily reach its CO 2 emission peak before 2030. This will impose considerable pressure on the Chinese government to realize its emission mitigation target. (2) Compared with the non-fossil energy share in electricity generation, the CO 2 emissions from China's electric power industry are more sensitive to the changes in total electricity consumption and thermal power generation efficiency. (3) The increase in total electricity consumption is the single most important contributor to CO 2 emission growth from the electric power industry of China. (4) To mitigate future CO 2 emissions from the electric power industry, the Chinese government should optimize the industrial export structure and enhance its awareness of the increase in household electricity consumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the banner of the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG 7), governments, industry, and civil society organisations have supported many energy access projects since 2015. Notably, funding and investments allotted to renewable energy are regarded not only to provide 'energy for all' but also support the delivery of other SDGs related to climate change, food security, health, and poverty reduction, among others. With less than 10 years left to meet the SDG 7 targets, it is timely to take stock and examine how the provision of access to energy is driving development initiatives, impacting local communities, and influencing governance processes. This paper offers a critical review and analysis of the impact of access to energy projects based on empirical work from eight country case studies across Africa, Asia, and Latin America. It interrogates how these projects contribute towards achieving SDG 7 and other sustainable development goals, highlights challenges, and then draws lessons for research, policy, and development practice. To advance SDGs, it recommends action in four areas: addressing rural-urban disparities, ensuring that energy is linked to sustainable outcomes, balancing top-down and bottom-up agendas, and appraising implications of techno-economic factors. [Display omitted] • Energy access has been constrained by multiple factors outside of policy decisions. • Governance decisions have overlooked local actors who are key to project sustainability. • Improved efficiency is more vital to energy security and access than increased generation. • Alignment between policies, governance processes, and institutional commitments is crucial. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]