Li, Yeke, Wang, Shanshan, Wang, Ningwei, Liu, Yilei, Xin, Haojin, Sun, Huijie, and Zhang, Ruiqin
As the world's largest producer and consumer of aluminum, China's aluminum industry is facing enormous pressure for energy conservation and emission reduction due to its traditional high energy consumption, high emissions, and high pollution. To explore the green and low-carbon development path of the aluminum industry, an integrated modelling framework was developed, including aluminum production forecasting and scrap recycling model, energy consumption-carbon emission-air pollutant emission model, and conservation supply curve method. Five different scenarios were set up to evaluate the energy saving and emission reduction potential of Henan Province from 2023 to 2050, by adopting four measures of accelerating the recycled aluminum, promoting energy efficiency technologies, expanding the scale of electrolytic cells, and increasing the share of renewable energy. The results showed that the production of alumina and primary aluminum decreased to 9.6 and 1.8 Mt respectively in 2050, while the future production of aluminum processing products and recycled aluminum showed a continuous upward trend. By 2050, production of recycled aluminum will increase to 14.0 Mt, expanding by about 5.7 times compared to 2022. The energy-saving and emission reduction potential of the integrated scenario is the most significant, with energy consumption, CO 2 , SO 2 , NO X , PM 10 , PM 2.5 and fluoride decreased by 54.3, 73.0, 96.5, 72.7, 82.6, 82.6, and 98.9% compared to the business-as-usual scenario, respectively. The results also indicated that accelerating the recycled aluminum and optimizing energy structure are more effective for mitigation. Finally, policy suggestions for mitigating energy consumption and pollutant emissions of the aluminum industry in Henan Province were proposed. The systematic framework of this study can be widely applicable to other provinces and the whole country, which can provide some references for the aluminum industry to achieve the carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets. [Display omitted] • A framework of production forecasting and scrap recycling model, energy–CO 2 –air pollutant model is developed. • Production of alumina and primary aluminum will decrease, while aluminum processing products will continue to rise. • MFA model is established to predict scrap resources from seven downstream departments. • Cost-effectiveness of selected energy-saving technologies is evaluated. • Accelerating the recycled aluminum and optimizing energy structure are more effective for mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]