1. Exploring the market for breakthrough technologies
- Author
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Ortt, J. Roland, Langley, David J., and Pals, Nico
- Subjects
High technology industry ,Social sciences - Abstract
To link to full-text access for this article, visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2007.05.009 Byline: J. Roland Ortt (a), David J. Langley (b), Nico Pals (b) Keywords: Market potential; Breakthrough technology; Futures research; Market research Abstract: In this article, the gap between futures research (long term) and market research (short term) is closed in two ways. Firstly, by describing methods of market exploration that can be used earlier on in the process of development and diffusion of breakthrough technologies, so market research can be applied along with futures research. Secondly, the gap is closed by actually combining futures research and market research. We start the article from the perspective of the market research discipline and describe the problems in market research that require new approaches. The validity of market research results is often low when breakthrough technologies enter the market. To investigate this problem, assumptions for valid market research results are presented. In some cases, when breakthrough technologies first enter the market, these assumptions do not hold and market research becomes problematic whereas in other cases customers' needs and preferences are not an issue at all and attention focuses on technological issues. Potential solutions to explore the market in the former cases are suggested. Four approaches are distinguished: (1) adapting existing methods; (2) combining consumer research with market structure analysis or futures research; (3) using theoretic models; and (4) probe and learn approaches. These approaches require different subsets of assumptions and are therefore applicable in different situations. Author Affiliation: (a) Associate professor of Management of Technology at Delft University of Technology, faculty of Technology, Policy, and Management, Jaffalaan 5, 2628 BZ Delft, The Netherlands (b) TNO ICT, PO Box 1416, 9701 BK Groningen, The Netherlands Article History: Received 15 October 2006; Revised 27 April 2007; Accepted 1 May 2007
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- 2007