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Both the sensitivity of an estrus detection system and the consistency of alarms relative to ovulation determine its value for a farmer. The objective of this study was to compare an activity-based system and a milk progesterone–based system for their ability to detect estrus reliably, and to investigate how their alerts are linked to the time of the LH surge preceding ovulation. The study was conducted on an experimental research farm in Flanders, Belgium. The activity alerts were generated by a commercial activity meter (ActoFIT, DeLaval, Tumba, Sweden), and milk progesterone was measured using a commercial ELISA kit. Sensitivity and positive predictive value of both systems were calculated based on 35 estrus periods over 43 d. Blood samples were taken for determination of the LH surge, and the intervals between timing of the alerts and the LH surge were investigated based on their range and standard deviation (SD). Activity alerts had a sensitivity of 80% and a positive predictive value of 65.9%. Alerts were detected from 39 h before until 8 h after the LH surge (range: 47 h, SD: 16 h). Alerts based on milk progesterone were obtained from a recently developed monitoring algorithm using a mathematical model and synergistic control. All estruses were correctly identified by this algorithm, and the LH surge followed, on average, 62 h later. Using the mathematical model, model-based indicators for the estimation of ovulation time can be calculated. Depending on which modelbased indicator was used, ranges of 33 to 35 h and SD of about 11 h were obtained. Because detection of the LH surge was very labor intensive, only a limited number of potential estrus periods could be studied. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Timely identification of a cow's reproduction status is essential to minimize fertility-related losses on dairy farms. This includes optimal estrus detection, pregnancy diagnosis, and the timely recognition of early embryonic death and ovarian problems. On-farm milk progesterone (P4) analysis can indicate all of these fertility events simultaneously. However, milk P4 measurements are subject to a large variability both in terms of measurement errors and absolute values between cycles. The objective of this paper is to present a newly developed methodology for detecting luteolysis preceding estrus and give an indication of its on-farm use. The innovative monitoring system presented is based on milk P4 using the principles of synergistic control. Instead of using filtering techniques and fixed thresholds, the present system employs an individually on-line updated model to describe the P4 profile, combined with a statistical process control chart to identify the cow's fertility status. The inputs for the latter are the residuals of the on-line updated model, corrected for the concentration-dependent variability that is typical for milk P4 measurements. To show its possible use, the system was validated on the P4 profiles of 38 dairy cows. The positive predictive value for luteolysis followed by estrus was 100%, meaning that the monitoring system picked up all estrous periods identified by the experts. Pregnancy or embryonic mortality was characterized by the absence or detection of luteolysis following an insemination, respectively. For 13 cows, no luteolysis was detected by the system within the 25 to 32 d after insemination, indicating pregnancy, which was confirmed later by rectal palpation. It was also shown that the system is able to cope with deviating P4 profiles having prolonged follicular or luteal phases, which may suggest the occurrence of cysts. Future research is recommended for optimizing sampling frequency, predicting the optimal insemination window, and establishing rules to detect problems based on deviating P4 patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]