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A growing body of evidence suggests that reproductive history influences post-reproductive mortality. A potential explanation for this association is confounding by socioeconomic status in the family of origin, as socioeconomic status is related to both fertility behaviours and to long-term health. We examine the relationship between age at first birth, completed parity, and post-reproductive mortality and address the potential confounding role of family of origin. We use Swedish population register data for men and women born 1932–1960, and examine both all-cause and cause-specific mortality. The contributions of our study are the use of a sibling comparison design that minimizes residual confounding from shared family background characteristics and assessment of cause-specific mortality that can shed light on the mechanisms linking reproductive history to mortality. Our results were entirely consistent with previous research on this topic, with teenage first time parents having higher mortality, and the relationship between parity and mortality following a U-shaped pattern where childless men and women and those with five or more children had the highest mortality. These results indicate that selection into specific fertility behaviours based upon socioeconomic status and experiences within the family of origin does not explain the relationship between reproductive history and post-reproductive mortality. Additional analyses where we adjust for other lifecourse factors such as educational attainment, attained socioeconomic status, and post-reproductive marital history do not change the results. Our results add an important new level of robustness to the findings on reproductive history and mortality by showing that the association is robust to confounding by factors shared by siblings. However it is still uncertain whether reproductive history causally influences health, or whether other confounding factors such as childhood health or risk-taking propensity could explain the association. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Only children, here defined as individuals growing up without siblings, are a small but growing demographic subgroup. Existing research has consistently shown that, on average, only children have higher body mass index (BMI) than individuals who grow up with siblings. How this difference develops with age is unclear and existing evidence is inconclusive regarding the underlying mechanisms. We investigate BMI trajectories for only children and those with siblings up to late adolescence for four British birth cohorts and across adulthood for three cohorts. We use data on BMI from ages 2–63 years (cohort born 1946); 7–55 years (born 1958); 10–46 (born 1970) and 3–17 years (born 2000–2002). Using mixed effects regression separately for each cohort, we estimate the change in BMI by age comparing only children and those with siblings. The results show higher average BMI among only children in each cohort, yet the difference is substantively small and limited to school age and adolescence. The association between sibling status and BMI at age 10/11 is not explained by differential health behaviours (physical activity, inactivity and diet) or individual or family background characteristics in any of the cohorts. Although persistent across cohorts, and despite the underlying mechanism remaining unexplained, the substantively small magnitude of the observed difference and the convergence of the trajectories by early adulthood in all cohorts raises doubts about whether the difference in BMI between only children and siblings in the UK context should be of research or clinical concern. Future research could usefully be directed more at whether only children experience elevated rates of disease, for which high BMI is a risk factor, at different stages of the life course and across contexts. • Only children in four UK cohorts have higher average BMI than those with siblings. • Difference in BMI is substantively small and limited to school age and adolescence. • Association at age 10/11 is not explained by health or social characteristics. • BMI trajectories of only children and siblings converge by early adulthood. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background & Aims: Different mutations in the cystic fibrosis gene (CFTR) are associated with different functional status of the exocrine pancreas. We investigated whether CFTR genotypes determine the risk of pancreatitis in patients with cystic fibrosis (CF). Methods: Patients with pancreatic-sufficient CF were identified from 2 CF population-based databases (N = 277; 62 with pancreatitis and 215 without pancreatitis); patients'' genotypes and clinical characteristics were analyzed. The loss of pancreatic function associated with each CFTR genotype was determined based on the pancreatic insufficiency prevalence (PIP) score. Results: Patients with pancreatitis were more likely to have genotypes associated with mild (70%) than moderate-severe (30%) PIP scores (P = .004). The cumulative proportion of patients who developed pancreatitis through to the age of 50 years was significantly greater for genotypes associated with mild (50%) than moderate-severe (27%) PIP scores (P = .006). The genotype associated with mild PIP scores had a hazard ratio of 2.4 for pancreatitis (95% confidence interval, 1.3–4.5; P = .006). Patients with pancreatitis were diagnosed with CF at an older median age than those without pancreatitis (14.9 years [interquartile range, 9.5–27.7] vs 9.3 years [interquartile range, 1.5–21.4]; P = .003) and had lower mean levels of sweat chloride than patients without pancreatitis (74.5 ± 26.2 mmol/L vs 82.8 ± 25.2 mmol/L; P = .03). Conclusions: Specific CFTR genotypes are significantly associated with pancreatitis. Patients with genotypes associated with mild phenotypic effects have a greater risk of developing pancreatitis than patients with genotypes associated with moderate-severe phenotypes. This observation provides further insight into the complex pathogenesis of pancreatitis. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

A growing body of research suggests that air pollution negatively affects specific health outcomes, but how long- and short-term exposure to air pollution are associated with frailty is unclear. Using longitudinal data from adults aged 65 and over from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) linked with air quality index data, we model a frailty score according to the city-level of air pollution exposure, adjusting for individual socio-demographic factors and city-level indicators. All models show increased frailty with higher exposure to air pollution in one year prior to the interview, when controlling for short-term fluctuations. Moreover, elderly people living in areas where air pollution increased over the follow-up had larger increases in frailty scores than those where air pollution was relatively constant. The results suggest that air pollution plays a role in healthy ageing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies have established the key individual-level risk factors of COVID-19 mortality such as age, gender, ethnicity, and socio-economic status. However, the spread of infectious diseases is a spatial and temporal process implying that COVID-19 mortality and its determinants may vary sub-nationally and over time. We investigate the spatial patterns of age-standardised death rates due to COVID-19 and their correlates across local authority districts in England, Wales, and Scotland across three waves of infection. Using a Spatial Durbin model, we explore within- and between-country variation and account for spatial dependency. Areas with a higher share of ethnic minorities and higher levels of deprivation had higher rates of COVID-19 mortality. However, the share of ethnic minorities and population density in an area were more important predictors of COVID-19 mortality in earlier waves of the pandemic than in later waves, whereas area-level deprivation has become a more important predictor over time. Second, during the first wave of the pandemic, population density had a significant spillover effect on COVID-19 mortality, indicating that the pandemic spread from big cities to neighbouring areas. Third, after accounting for differences in ethnic composition, deprivation, and population density, initial cross-country differences in COVID-19 mortality almost disappeared. COVID-19 mortality remained higher in Scotland than in England and Wales in the third wave when COVID-19 mortality was relatively low in all three countries. Interpreting these results in the context of higher overall (long-term) non-COVID-19 mortality in Scotland suggests that Scotland may have performed better than expected during the first two waves. Our study highlights that accounting for both spatial and temporal factors is essential for understanding social and demographic risk factors of mortality during pandemics. • COVID-19 mortality varied within and between Scotland, England and Wales. • Variation explained by ethnic minority share, deprivation, and population density. • At the start of COVID-19, infections and deaths spread from cities to rural areas. • Scotland had lower than expected COVID-19 mortality in the first two waves. • COVID-19 studies should account for both spatial and temporal processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To explore the psychosocial implications of diagnostic uncertainty that result from inconclusive results generated by newborn bloodspot screening (NBS) for cystic fibrosis (CF).Study Design: Using a mixed methods prospective cohort study of children who received NBS for CF, we compared psychosocial outcomes of parents whose children who received persistently inconclusive results with those whose children received true positive or screen-negative results.Results: Mothers of infants who received inconclusive results (n = 17), diagnoses of CF (n = 15), and screen-negative results (n = 411) were surveyed; 23 parent interviews were completed. Compared with mothers of infants with true positive/screen-negative results, mothers of infants with inconclusive results reported greater perceived uncertainty (P < .006) but no differences in anxiety or vulnerability (P > .05). Qualitatively, parents valued being connected to experts but struggled with the meaning of an uncertain diagnosis, worried about their infant's health-related vulnerability, and had mixed views about surveillance.Conclusion: Inconclusive CF NBS results were not associated with anxiety or vulnerability but led to health-related uncertainty and qualitative concerns. Findings should be considered alongside efforts to optimize protocols for CF screening and surveillance. Educational and psychosocial supports are warranted for these families. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]