1. Planning the unplannable: Scenarios on the future of space
- Author
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Huntley, Wade L., Bock, Joseph G., and Weingartner, Miranda
- Subjects
Company business planning ,Aerospace and defense industries ,Business - Abstract
To link to full-text access for this article, visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.spacepol.2009.11.007 Byline: Wade L. Huntley (a), Joseph G. Bock (b), Miranda Weingartner (c) Abstract: This article explores the use of scenario analysis as a methodology to rigorously analyze potential space futures, particularly with respect to space security challenges, in the context of rapid and uncertain change across several dimensions of human space activities. The successful use of scenario analysis in other (e.g. corporate and military) sectors is described and results of an initial scenario analysis workshop are presented. Scenario analysis is recommended as a promising approach to evaluating the long-term consequences of various policy choices in the context of uncertainty, and as a process well-suited to fostering communication and building consensual knowledge among diverse stakeholders. Author Affiliation: (a) US Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA, USA (b) Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, Notre Dame, IN, USA (c) Weingartner Consulting, Ontario, Canada Article Note: (footnote) [star] An earlier version of this article was presented at the Oxford Futures Forum, University of Oxford, 22 October 2005.
- Published
- 2010