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This paper presents a methodological framework using a multi model approach to assess power system security. System security is viewed here as a multidimensional systemic property of the entire energy system. The paper shows that the different dimensions of a secure energy system are correlated, and hence their behaviour cannot be explained solely by an understanding of the individual dimensions or by system elements in isolation. The implication of this is that a proper assessment of the security of a power system requires a combination of different techno-economic models. The paper develops a comprehensive multi-model approach for investigating energy security issues within power systems, and applies it to a case study focussing on the Italian power sector. The core research activity involves using an energy systems model of Italy (MONET) to build a dedicated power systems model (PLEXOS_IT) and then undertaking a soft-linking exercise between the two models. The purpose is to use PLEXOS_IT to investigate the system adequacy of the power system results produced by MONET for future possible energy system scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] Develops a framework for a comprehensive and systemic assessment of energy security. [•] Develops a scenario analysis to identify the structural changes of a Low-Carbon energy system. [•] Assesses the implications of a Low-Carbon EU energy system on energy security. [•] Provides foundations for more detailed analysis of climate change/energy security nexus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper aims to quantitatively explore the uncertainty around the global potential of shale gas development and its possible impacts, using a multi-regional energy system model, TIAM (TIMES Integrated Assessment Model). Starting from the premise that shale gas resource size and production cost are two key preconditions for its development, our scenario analysis reveals the way these and other variables interact with the global energy system, impacting on the regional distribution of gas production, interregional gas trade, demand and prices. The analysis shows how the reciprocal effects of substitutions on both the supply and demand-side play an important role in constraining or enabling the penetration of shale gas into the energy mix. Moreover, we systematically demonstrate that the global potential for shale gas development is contingent on a large number of intervening variables that manifest themselves in different ways across regionally-distinct energy systems. A simple theoretical model is derived from the results of the scenario analysis. Its purpose is to simplify and explain the complex behaviour of the system, by illustrating the chain of actions and feedbacks induced by different shale gas economics, their magnitude, their relative importance, and the necessary conditions for the global potential to be realised. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]