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Background: Despite the high burden of cervical cancer, access to preventive measures remains low in India. A single-dose immunisation schedule could facilitate the scale-up of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination, contributing to global elimination of cervical cancer. We projected the effect of single-dose quadrivalent HPV vaccination in India in comparison with no vaccination or to a two-dose schedule.Methods: In this modelling study, we adapted an HPV transmission model (EpiMetHeos) to Indian data on sexual behaviour (from the Demographic and Health Survey and the Indian National AIDS Control Organisation), HPV prevalence data (from two local surveys, from the states of Tamil Nadu and West Bengal), and cervical cancer incidence data (from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents for the period 2008-12 [volume XI], and the Indian National Centre for Disease Informatics and Research for the period 2012-16). Using the model, we projected the nationwide and state-specific effect of HPV vaccination on HPV prevalence and cervical cancer incidence, and lifetime risk of cervical cancer, for 100 years after the introduction of vaccination or in the first 50 vaccinated birth cohorts. Projections were derived under a two-dose vaccination scenario assuming life-long protection and under a single-dose vaccination scenario with protection duration assumptions derived from International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) India vaccine trial data, in combination with different vaccination coverages and catch-up vaccination age ranges. We used two thresholds to define cervical cancer elimination: an age-standardised incidence rate of less than 4 cases per 100 000 woman-years, and standardised lifetime risk of less than 250 cases per 100 000 women born.Findings: Assuming vaccination in girls aged 10 years, with 90% coverage, and life-long protection by two-dose or single-dose schedule, HPV vaccination could reduce the prevalence of HPV16 and HPV18 infection by 97% (80% UI 96-99) in 50 years, and the lifetime risk of cervical cancer by 71-78% from 1067 cases per 100 000 women born under a no vaccination scenario to 311 (80% UI 284-339) cases per 100 000 women born in the short term and 233 (219-252) cases per 100 000 women born in the long term in vaccinated cohorts. Under this scenario, we projected that the age-standardised incidence rate threshold for elimination could be met across India (range across Indian states: 1·6 cases [80% UI 1·5-1·7] to 4·0 cases [3·8-4·4] per 100 000 woman-years), while the complementary threshold based on standardised lifetime risk was attainable in 17 (68%) of 25 states, but not nationwide (range across Indian states: 207 cases [80% UI 194-223] to 477 cases [447-514] per 100 000 women born). Under the considered assumptions of waning vaccine protection, single-dose vaccination was projected to have a 21-100% higher per-dose efficiency than two-dose vaccination. Single-dose vaccination with catch-up for girls and women aged 11-20 years was more impactful than two-dose vaccination without catch-up, with reduction of 39-65% versus 38% in lifetime risk of cervical cancer across the ten catch-up birth cohorts and the first ten routine vaccination birth cohorts.Interpretation: Our evidence-based projections suggest that scaling up cervical cancer prevention through single-dose HPV vaccination could substantially reduce cervical cancer burden in India.Funding: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evidence suggests that a fraction of new gastric cancer cases may be etiologically associated with Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), a known carcinogenic agent. We aimed to systematically explore the proportion of EBV-positive gastric cancer. We did a systematic review (PROSPERO CRD42020164473) from January 1990 to August 2021. For each country and geographical region with available data, pooled prevalence and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of EBV in gastric tumors were calculated for 3 subtypes of gastric adenocarcinoma (conventional adenocarcinoma, lymphoepithelioma-like gastric carcinoma, and remnant/stump carcinoma). For conventional adenocarcinoma, prevalence ratios (PRs) were presented for sex, Lauren's classification, gastric cancer stage, and anatomical location of the stomach. In 220 eligible studies including over 68,000 cases of conventional gastric adenocarcinoma, EBV prevalence in tumor cells was 7.5% (95% CI, 6.9%–8.1%) and was higher in men compared with women (PR, 2.1; 95% CI, 1.9–2.4), in diffuse type compared with intestinal type (PR, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.1–1.5), and in the proximal region compared with the distal region (PR, 2.5; 95% CI, 2.0–3.1). There was no difference in EBV prevalence by gastric cancer stage. EBV prevalence was 75.9% (95% CI, 62.8%–85.5%) among lymphoepithelioma-like gastric carcinoma and 26.3% (95% CI, 22.2%–32.0%) among remnant or stump carcinoma. Assuming a causal association between EBV and gastric cancer, our findings, when applied to the GLOBOCAN 2020 gastric cancer incidence, suggest that primary prevention such as the development of an effective EBV vaccine might prevent 81,000 EBV-associated gastric cancer cases worldwide annually. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA) are the two main histological subtypes of primary liver cancer. Estimates of the burden of liver cancer by subtype are needed to facilitate development and evaluation of liver cancer control globally. We provide worldwide, regional and national estimates of HCC and iCCA incidence using high-quality data. We used population-based cancer registry data on liver cancer cases by histological subtype from 95 countries to compute the sex- and country-specific distributions of HCC, iCCA and other specified histology. Subtype distributions were applied to estimates of total liver cancer cases for 2018 from the Global Cancer Observatory. Age-standardised incidence rates (ASRs) were calculated. There were an estimated 826,000 cases of liver cancer globally in 2018: 661,000 HCC (ASR 7.3 cases per 100,000); 123,000 iCCA (ASR 1.4) and 42,000 other specified histology (ASR 0.5). HCC contributed 80% of the world total liver cancer burden followed by iCCA (14.9%) and other specified histology (5.1%). HCC rates were highest in Eastern Asia (ASR 14.8), Northern Africa (ASR 13.2) and South-Eastern Asia (ASR 9.5). Rates of iCCA were highest in South-Eastern Asia (ASR 2.9), Eastern Asia (ASR 2.0), Northern Europe, the Caribbean and Central America and Oceania (ASR all 1.8). We have shown the importance of uncovering the distinct patterns of the major subtypes of liver cancer. The use of these estimates is critical to further develop public health policy to reduce the burden of liver cancer and monitor progress in controlling HCC and iCCA globally. • Liver cancer is the third cause of cancer death worldwide and has two major subtypes. • Cancer registry data were used to estimate regional liver cancer subtype distribution. • Hepatocellular carcinoma contributed 80% of all liver cancer cases globally. • Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma contributed 15% of all liver cancer cases globally. • Considering histological subtypes is essential to assess global liver cancer burden. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]