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Examine cognitive changes over time among nursing home residents and develop a risk model for identifying predictors of cognitive decline. Using secondary analysis design with Minimum Data Set data, cognitive status was based on the Cognitive Performance Scale (CPS). Baseline and 7 quarterly follow-up analyses of US and Canadian interRAI data (N = 1,257,832) were completed. Logistic regression analyses identified predictors of decline to form the CogRisk-NH scale. At baseline, about 15% of residents were cognitively intact (CPS = 0), and 11.2% borderline intact (CPS = 1). The remaining more intact, with mild impairment (CPS = 2), included 15.0%. Approximately 59% residents fell into CPS categories 3 to 6 (moderate to severe impairment). Over time, increasing proportions of residents declined: 17.1% at 6 months, 21.6% at 9 months, and 34.0% at 21 months. Baseline CPS score was a strong predictor of decline. Categories 0 to 2 had 3-month decline rates in midteens, and categories 3 to 5 had an average decline rate about 9%. Consequently, a 2-submodel construction was employed—one for CPS categories 0 to 2 and the other for categories 3 to 5. Both models were integrated into a 6-category risk scale (CogRisk-NH). CogRisk-NH scale score distribution had 15.9% in category 1, 26.84% in category 2, and 36.7% in category 3. Three higher-risk categories (ie, 4-6) represented 20.6% of residents. Mean decline rates at the 3-month assessment ranged from 4.4% to 28.3%. Over time, differentiation among risk categories continued: 6.9% to 38.4.% at 6 months, 11.0% to 51.0% at 1 year, and 16.2% to 61.4% at 21 months, providing internal validation of the prediction model. Cognitive decline rates were higher among residents in less-impaired CPS categories. CogRisk-NH scale differentiates those with low likelihood of decline from those with moderate likelihood and, finally, much higher likelihood of decline. Knowledge of resident risk for cognitive decline enables allocation of resources targeting amenable factors and potential interventions to mitigate continuing decline. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Introduction: Older adults with advanced cognitive impairment have a limited life expectancy and the use of multiple drugs is of questionable benefit in this population. The aim of the present study was to assess if, in a sample of nursing home (NH) residents with advanced cognitive impairment, the effect of polypharmacy on mortality differs depending on estimated life expectancy. Methods: Data were from the Services and Health for Elderly in Long TERm care (SHELTER) project, a study collecting information on residents admitted to 57 NHs in 8 European countries. Polypharmacy was defined as the concomitant use of 10 or more drugs. Limited life expectancy was estimated based on an Advanced Dementia Prognostic Tool (ADEPT) score of 13.5 or more. A Cognitive Performance Scale score of 5 or more was used to define advanced cognitive impairment. Participants were followed for 1 year. Results: Mean age of 822 residents with advanced cognitive impairment entering the study was 84.6 (SD 8.0) years, and 630 (86.6%) were women. Overall, 123 participants (15.0%) had an ADEPT score of 13.5 or more (indicating limited life expectancy) and 114 (13.9%) were on polypharmacy. Relative to residents with ADEPT score less than 13.5, those with ADEPT score of 13.5 or higher had a lower use of benzodiazepines, antidementia drugs, and statins but a higher use of beta-blockers, digoxin, and antibiotics. Polypharmacy was associated with increased mortality among residents with ADEPT score of 13.5 or more (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 2.19, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.15–4.17), but not among those with ADEPT score less than 13.5 (adjusted HR 1.10, 95% CI: 0.71–1.71). Discussion: Polypharmacy is associated with increased mortality in NH residents with advanced cognitive impairment at the end of life. Conclusion: These findings underline the need to assess life expectancy in older adults to improve the prescribing process and to simplify drug regimens. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]