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• A framework to evaluate urban resilience knowledge products is applied in two cases. • The knowledge product evaluation assesses elements, scales, resilience, and use. • Knowledge product implementation and facilitation strategies may increase use. • Methods that identify actions only in reports likely miss some resilience progress. • The knowledge product evaluation framework can help improve knowledge products. Urban decision-makers are increasingly focused on enhancing community resilience in anticipation of more frequent and intense impacts from climate variability and change. These impacts will manifest in complex and nuanced ways, particularly when coupled with additional social, economic, and environmental shifts that vary across contexts. Given these challenges, urban decision-makers are seeking new knowledge, and new ways of using existing knowledge, to support decision-making processes. In response, a broad range of knowledge products (i.e. decision-support tools, climate services) have been developed for urban areas. Yet, to date, little research has directly evaluated these products. The Knowledge Product Evaluation (KnoPE) framework addresses this gap by providing both conceptual clarity surrounding knowledge products and a structured, generalizable methodology to guide research and support improved knowledge product creation and uptake. The KnoPE Framework combines data and information on knowledge products, their use in decision-making over time, and evidence of tangible actions taken. The KnoPE Framework was developed with two urban resilience knowledge products – the Urban-Climate Adaptation Tool and the Maine Flood Resilience Checklist. Initial testing indicates that the KnoPE Framework can assess the transferability, scalability, and use of knowledge products in urban resilience decision-making. Any evaluation using the KnoPE Framework requires a thorough understanding of the contextual details of each case and understanding what factors may influence knowledge product development and subsequent decision-making processes and outcomes. Yet, as an analytical entry point for the evaluation of knowledge products, the KnoPE Framework can offer insights regarding the extent to which knowledge products influence urban resilience decision-making processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate services are increasingly developed and used to plan for climate change adaptation, but it remains unclear what constitutes their success. In this global Delphi study, a wide range of experts evaluated 12 elements to be most relevant for defining success, clustered along 3 dimensions: climate service, production process, and results of production and/or use. Two possible ways of combining these elements into a definition received convincing support from the experts. The definition shows that user satisfaction is key. Moreover, climate service developers should acknowledge climate change uncertainties, and build trust and capacity with the users, while tailoring interactions. Ultimately, better adaptation decisions should follow. There was limited agreement on including elements regarding the process of how a service should be developed. This paper proposes a first global definition for successful climate services that is widely supported and can be used to develop, research, and evaluate climate services. • Experts define 'successful climate services for adaptation' in a Delphi study. • Study reveals that 12 elements are most relevant to include in a definition. • Users have a central in determining the success of a climate service for adaptation. • Two possible definitions receive convincing support from experts worldwide. • Definition supports development, research, and evaluation of climate services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The energy sector is highly dependent on climate variability for electricity generation, maintenance activities and demand. In recent years, a few climate services have appeared that provide tailored information for the energy sector. In particular, seasonal climate predictions of wind speed have proven useful to the wind power industry. However, most of the service users are ultimately interested in forecasts of electricity generation instead of wind. Although power generation depends on many factors other than wind conditions, the capacity factor is a suitable indicator to quantify the impact of wind variability on production. In this paper a methodology to produce seasonal predictions of capacity factor for a range of turbine classes is proposed for the first time. The strengths and weaknesses of the method are discussed and the forecast quality is evaluated for an application example over Europe. • A method to produce seasonal forecasts of renewable generation is presented. • A unified approach that fits the specific nature of any wind farm is employed. • Some limitations of seasonal prediction systems are identified and addressed. • The generation forecasts perform better than climatology in some European regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change will exacerbate the future challenges posed to sustaining food security in the UK. More frequent and intense extreme weather events will impact upon the ability of British farm systems to maintain or increase levels of food production. However, in this cultural context, relatively little is known about farmers' relationship with 'the weather', formed from their daily experiences of it. This paper engages at the farm scale to explore farmers' information-seeking behaviour about the weather, which influences their current risk perceptions of extreme weather conditions, through exploration of their assemblages of meteorological and local knowledge. Views are collected using a broad-based quantitative scoping survey combined with in-depth qualitative research with farmers located in the Welsh Marches border region of England and Wales, UK. Findings demonstrate that different types of farmer-weather relationships can be recognised depending upon the way weather and climate information is sought and utilised. We present a typology of farmer-weather relationships, categorising farmers as: analysts; intuitives; fatalists; or disengagers; with regards to the way in which they seek and interpret weather and climate information. This typology may assist the formation of new weather and climate services through an improved understanding of how lay and scientific knowledges interact in practice. • The importance of examining weather at the farm scale. • Investigating farmers' local knowledge of weather and climate change based on extreme events. • Recognition of four types of farmer-weather relationship, demonstrating a convergence of local and scientific knowledge. • An exposition of farmers' information-seeking behaviour regarding weather. • Farmer-weather types can assist development of weather and climate services through better targeting of information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Solar photovoltaic energy is widespread worldwide and particularly in Europe, which became in 2016 the first region in the world to pass the 100 GW of installed capacity. As with all the renewable energy sources, for an effective management of solar power, it is essential to have reliable and accurate information about weather/climate conditions that affect the production of electricity. Operations in the solar energy industry are normally based on daily (or intra-daily) forecasts. Nevertheless, information about the incoming months can be relevant to support and inform operational and maintenance activities. This paper discusses a methodology to assess whether a seasonal climate forecast can provide a useful prediction for a specific sector, in this paper the European solar power industry. After evaluating the quality of the forecasts in providing probabilistic information for solar radiation, we describe how to assess their potential usefulness for a generic user by proposing an approach that takes into account not only their accuracy but also other potentially relevant factors. This approach is called index of opportunity and is then illustrated by presenting an example for the European solar power sector. The index of opportunity provides indications about where and when seasonal climate forecasts can benefit the decision-making in the photovoltaic sector. Even more importantly, it suggests an approach on how to evaluate their usefulness for the user's decision-making. This approach has the advantage of not limiting the definition of the usefulness only to the quality of the forecasts but rather considering, in an explicit way, all the factors that must be combined with the forecast's quality to define what is useful or not for the user. • This work explains how to use better climate forecasts in the energy sector. • Estimating the accuracy to assess the usefulness of climate forecasts is not enough. • This approach considers many factors to assess the usefulness of climate forecasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Having an effective way of dealing with data provenance is a necessary condition to ensure reproducibility, helping to build trust and credibility in research outcomes and the data products delivered. METACLIP (METAdata for CLImate Products) is a language-independent framework envisaged to tackle the problem of climate product provenance description. The solution is based on semantics exploiting the web standard Resource Description Framework (RDF), building on domain-specific extensions of standard vocabularies (e.g., PROV-O) describing the different aspects involved in climate product generation. We illustrate METACLIP through an example application within the open source R computing environment, generating a climate product for which full provenance information is recorded. Finally, the METACLIP Interpreter, a web-based interactive front-end for metadata visualization is presented, helping a diversity of users with different levels of expertise to trace and understand the provenance of a wide variety of climate data products, and to fully reproduce them. • METACLIP is a new user-oriented provenance framework exploiting semantic web technologies for describing climate products. • It is based on RDF, developing a set of vocabularies designed as domain-specific extensions of standards (PROV-O, etc.) • We introduce the METACLIP extension for R, as a new component of the climate4R framework for climate data analysis. • A web-based front-end allows for the interactive exploration of provenance representations of climate products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we assess and develop a climate service focused on the production of seasonal predictions for summer wildfires in a Mediterranean region through a participatory approach with end-users. We start by building a data-driven model that links a drought indicator (Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index; SPEI) with a series of burned areas in Catalonia (northeastern Spain). Afterwards, we feed this model with SPEI forecasts obtained through a combination of the antecedent observed conditions and climatology. Finally, we assess the forecasting skill of the system by using cross-validation to evaluate the predictions as if they had been made operationally. Our fire forecasting system reveals an untapped and useful burned area predictive ability. We argue that this source of predictability is mostly attributable to the effect of observed initial conditions on summer drought conditions. This system was conceived with the stakeholders, merging climate-driven predictions with information that is of interests to the users, including the identification of climate variables, thresholds and models. The co-production of this customized system allows fire-risk outlooks to be translated into usable information for fire management. This fire forecasting ability plays a crucial role in developing proactive fire management practices such as long-term fuel assessment and other fire-risk planning, thus minimising the impact of adverse climate conditions on summer burned area. Unlabelled Image • A climate service for seasonal predictions for summer wildfires is proposed. • Logistic regression models linking drought and fire variables are defined. • Persistence-based drought forecasts feed this data-driven fire model. • Summer fires can be forecast months in advance with this strategy. • The co-production of this system is key to providing usable information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study estimated the economic value of agricultural climate services for strengthening the resilience of smallholder farmers to climate variability and risks in Ethiopia. Using a choice experiment approach, the study introduced a hypothetical package of improved climate services to 600 randomly selected smallholder farmers in three districts across three different agro-ecological zones in the Oromia Regional State. A generalized multinomial logit (G-MNL) model was used to estimate preferred attributes of climate services and willingness-to-pay (WTP) values. The results show that the preferred bundle of improved climate services among smallholder farmers was one that could be communicated in short text message system, provided along with credit facility, and market information and one that favors participatory decision making by smallholders. The results further reveal that the WTP value exhibited high implicit price for participatory decision-making. The study sheds light on important characteristics of agricultural climate services that may improve their acceptability and usability among smallholders. It also highlights the importance of packaging additional services including digital and ICT-based solutions, financial and market information along with climate services to promote demand-driven last mile delivery systems. Engaging smallholder farmers in a participatory manner in the decision-making process can help them make informed decision. • We estimate the economic value of agricultural climate services. • We introduced hypothetical packages of improved climate services. • Participatory decision making by farmers is most preferred attribute. • ICT based delivery and market and financial information are key. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract In January 2018, three leading European initiatives on climate services (CS) and disaster risk reduction (DRR) initiated a discussion on how the DRR community could be best served by new and emerging CS. The aim was to identify challenges and opportunities for delivery of effective operational disaster risk management and communication informed by an understanding of future climate risks. The resulting discussion engaged experts from civil protection, health, insurance, engineering and the climate service community. Discussions and subsequent reflections recognised that CS can strengthen all phases of the DRR cycle and that there are lessons to learn from experience that could enhance and demonstrate the value of CS supporting the DRR community. For this to happen, however, the supporting information should be relevant, accessible, legitimate and credible and engage both service supply and demand sides. It was also agreed that there was need for identifiable and credible champions recognised as providing leadership and focal points for the development, delivery and evaluation of CS supporting DRR. This paper summarises the identified key challenges (e.g. disconnection between CS and DRR; accessibility of relevant and quality-controlled information; understanding of information needs; and understanding the role of CS and its link to the DRR planning cycle). It also suggests taking advantage of the unique opportunities as a result of the increased coherence and mutual reinforcement across the post-2015 international agendas and the increasing recognition that links between public health and DRR can provide impetus and a focus for developing CS that support DRR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • Climate service production constraints hinder adaptation processes. • Knowledge production constraints create/exacerbate other adaptation constraints. • Stakeholder interactions lacked direct users and producers of climate services. • Human system uncertainties were rarely discussed during stakeholder interactions. • Constraints were variously experienced based on agency, role, status, institution. Abstract Climate change adaptation efforts continue to increase as the impacts of climate change increase, intensify, and become more apparent. However, many adaptation efforts fail to result in adaptation actions. This inaction has been linked to several constraining factors including a lack of actionable information for adaptation decision-making processes. We wonder if climate service producers face constraints as they try to create and deliver actionable information for adaptation decision-making efforts? This paper draws on semi-structured interviews and participant-observations across climate service production environments in Sweden to answer our research question and finds that climate service producers engage in research, coordination, and communication to varying degrees and experience constraints related to the production and dissemination of actionable information and stakeholder engagement, as well as funding, professional, and institutional constraints. Some constraints are experienced differently by climate service producers depending on their specific role, institutional affiliation, agency, and experience. Additionally, some climate service production constraints create or exacerbate additional constraints for adaptation decision-making stakeholders. Therefore, climate service production constraints limit the effectiveness of climate services, and overcoming them would help make progress towards more adaptation implementation in specific contexts. However, for adaptation actions to be widespread, the production and dissemination of climate services must be met with additional support and guidance for adaptation efforts beyond the provision of actionable information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Humanitarian organizations are increasingly interested in using seasonal forecasts to prepare for and mitigate the impacts of potential disasters before they begin. El Niño teleconnections increase the predictability of flooding and drought events in Southern and Eastern Africa, providing humanitarian stakeholders with advanced warning of potential weather events. This study draws on evidence from key-informant interviews with humanitarian organizations and government officials in five African countries (Zambia, Somalia, Kenya, Ethiopia, and Malawi) to better understand how national, regional, and international humanitarian organizations respond to climate and weather warnings. We find that organizations looked to data from past El Niño events to develop contingency plans and gradually implement response activities but that few organizations attempt to monitor and evaluate their activities or use forecasts to help people capture additional benefits. Although they would like greater specificity and higher forecast skill, humanitarians largely trust international forecasts. Access to intermediaries, contextualized data, and flexible funding, and well-established social protection mechanisms facilitate action. Based on these results we recommend that future efforts focus on developing capacities and complementary, localized, information that will help actors translate the forecasts into action. Future research is also needed to understand whether action leads to desired impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

South Asia is the world’s most poverty-dense region, where climate change and climate variability are expected to result in increased heat stress and erratic precipitation patterns that affect agricultural productivity. Considerable evidence has been generated on the effects of these stresses on crop yield, though previous research has not yet examined their influence on the economic efficiency of cereal producers. Surveying 240 farmers across eight of Pakistan’s twelve agro-ecological zones, we examined the impact of temperature and precipitation anomalies – as indicators of climatic variability – and the number of days when temperature exceeds crop specific heat stress thresholds on the economic efficiency of rice and wheat production. To this end, we employed first-stage stochastic production frontier (SPF) models and second-stage ordinary least square (OLS) and quantile regression models. Both OLS and quantile regressions indicated that terminal heat >34 °C has a significant negative impact on wheat production economic efficiency. Small positive deviation (0.54 °C ± 0.16 SD) of the wheat season’s mean temperature from the medium-term historical mean also significantly and negatively affected economic efficiency across all regression models. Heat stress >35.5 °C during rice flowering in the monsoon also had a significant and negative impact. A slight positive deviation in temperature averaging 0.38 °C (±0.11 SD) above the medium-term mean also had significant negative effects across all regressions. Cumulative precipitation conversely had significant yet contrary effects, by offsetting farmers’ investment in supplementary irrigation and increasing economic efficiency. Our results highlight the fact that indicators of climatic variability and heat stress negatively affect the economic efficiency of both rice and wheat producing farmers. Farmers’ education and access to financial and extension services were however both positively associated with economic efficiency. Our findings point to the importance of developing interlinked agronomic, economic and socio-ecological policy strategies to adapt and increase the resilience of Pakistan’s cereal systems to climatic variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we have compared different bias correction methodologies to assess whether they could be advantageous for improving the performance of a seasonal prediction model for volume anomalies in the Boadella reservoir (northwestern Mediterranean). The bias correction adjustments have been applied on precipitation and temperature from the European Centre for Middle-range Weather Forecasting System 4 (S4). We have used three bias correction strategies: two linear (mean bias correction, BC, and linear regression, LR) and one non-linear (Model Output Statistics analogs, MOS-analog). The results have been compared with climatology and persistence. The volume-anomaly model is a previously computed Multiple Linear Regression that ingests precipitation, temperature and in-flow anomaly data to simulate monthly volume anomalies. The potential utility for end-users has been assessed using economic value curve areas. We have studied the S4 hindcast period 1981–2010 for each month of the year and up to seven months ahead considering an ensemble of 15 members. We have shown that the MOS-analog and LR bias corrections can improve the original S4. The application to volume anomalies points towards the possibility to introduce bias correction methods as a tool to improve water resource seasonal forecasts in an end-user context of climate services. Particularly, the MOS-analog approach gives generally better results than the other approaches in late autumn and early winter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study focuses on a novel type of methodology which connects Pan-European data to the local scale in the field of water resources management. This methodology is proposed to improve and facilitate the decision making within the planning and management of water resources, taking into account climate change and its expected impacts. Our main point of interest is focused on the assessment of the predictability of extreme events and their possible effects, specifically droughts and water scarcity. Consequently, the Júcar River Basin was selected as the case study, due to the ongoing water scarcity problems and the last drought episodes suffered in the Mediterranean region. In order to study these possible impacts, we developed a modeling chain divided into four steps, they are: i) data collection, ii) analysis of available data, iii) models calibration and iv) climate impact analysis. Over previous steps, we used climate data from 15 different regional climate models (RCMs) belonging to the three different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) coming from a hydrological model across all of Europe called E-HYPE. The data were bias corrected and used to obtain statistical results of the availability of water resources for the future (horizon 2039) and in form of indicators. This was performed through a hydrological (EVALHID), stochastic (MASHWIN) and risk management (SIMRISK) models, all of which were specifically calibrated for this basin. The results show that the availability of water resources is much more enthusiastic than in the current situation, indicating the possibility that climate change, which was predicted to occur in the future has already happened in the Júcar River Basin. It seems that the so called “Effect 80”, an important decrease in water resources for the last three decades, is not well contemplated in the initial data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to address the impacts of climate change, global multilateral institutions, development organizations, and national and regional science organizations are creating climate services – packages of useful climate information intended to help decision makers. This diffuse collection of actors and institutions suggest that producing climate services will help bridge gaps between climate scientists and decision-makers and will therefore help vulnerable countries and people manage the risks and optimize the impacts of climate change. This article examines this global science-policy ecosystem using the case of climate services produced by Australian science agencies for consumption in adaptation programming in the Pacific Island countries of Kiribati and Solomon Islands. Linking research on geographies of marketization and the neoliberalization of science, I demonstrate that within the climate service movement a focus on usefulness is paired with an emphasis on commercialization. As a result, this case shows the inherent tensions in the climate service model: first, a focus on competition and circulating service products at the expense of collaborative relationships; second, difficulties in negotiating uncertainty; and third contradictions between ‘objective’ and ‘entrepreneurial’ science. In each of these instances, the commercialized mechanisms through which climate services are governed, and the political economic circumstances within which they are produced, magnify rather than ameliorate gaps between science and policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study we explore the seasonal predictability of water resources in a Mediterranean environment (the Boadella reservoir, in north-eastern Spain). Its utility for end-users is assessed through the analysis of economic value curve areas (EVA). Firstly, we have built monthly multiple linear regression (MLR) models for the in-flow, out-flow and volume anomalies by identifying the underlying relationships between these predictands and their potential predictors, both meteorological and human influenced: rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures, reservoir volume and discharge. Subsequently, we have forecast the monthly anomalies with these models for the period 1981–2010 (up to seven months ahead). We have tested the aforementioned models with four strategies in a leave-one-out cross-validation procedure (LOOCV): a ) Climatology (Clim.), b ) persistence (Pers.), c ) antecedent observations + climatology (A + Clim.), d ) antecedent observations + European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) System 4 anomalies (A + S4). Climatology is the operational strategy against which the other approximations are compared. The second and third approaches only use observations as input data. Finally, the last one combines both observations and ECMWF System 4 forecasts. The LOOCV revealed that reservoir volume is the variable best described by the MLR models, followed by in-flow and out-flow anomalies. In the case of volume anomalies, the predictability displayed provides added value with respect to climatology with a minimum of four months in advance. For in-flow and out-flow this is true at one month ahead, and regarding the latter variable we encounter enhanced predictability also at longer horizons for the summer months, when water demands peak (a valuable result for end-users). Hence, there is a window of opportunity to develop future operational frameworks that could outperform the use of climatology for these variables and forecast horizons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Local governments are on the front line of efforts to address climate-related impacts. Recognizing this, there is a growing movement to develop and deliver tools, resources, and services to support local communities’ climate adaptation initiatives. There is, however, limited understanding of what specific types of resources exist and how well these resources match the needs of local practitioners. To bring clarity to these questions, we: 1) assessed the current landscape of climate-adaptation resources and services; 2) surveyed community practitioners to learn how well these resources align with their needs; and 3) convened leading service providers and local practitioners to identify strategic opportunities for moving the adaptation field forward. Findings demonstrate that existing services and resources are meeting the early phases of local adaptation efforts such as conducting vulnerability assessments and creating adaptation plans, but are failing to meet the needs associated with implementing, monitoring, and evaluating adaptation activities. Additionally, a lack of funding and staff time to support adaptation, as well as inaccessible resource formats are barriers impeding local climate adaptation efforts. The mismatch between the types and formats of services being provided and the needs of local governments means that more work is needed to ensure that climate adaptation resources are responsive to the existing and future needs of local governments. Moreover, our research finds that there is a strong and growing need to organize and streamline the climate adaptation resource and service landscape so that practitioners can easily, effectively, and efficiently access the resources they need to build more resilient local communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Alexandrium is one of the major harmful algal bloom (HAB) genera. • Consequences of Alexandrium blooms in the context of climate change are explored. • Various climate change indicators are specified. • Climate change driven variations for Alexandrium are projected in climate models. • Ecological and socioeconomic impacts of Alexandrium blooms are evaluated. The marine dinoflagellate Alexandrium Halim represents perhaps the most significant and intensively studied genus with respect to species diversity, life history strategies, toxigenicity, biogeographical distribution, and global magnitude and consequences harmful algal blooms (HABs). The socioeconomic impacts, environmental and human health risks, and mitigation strategies for toxigenic Alexandrium blooms have also been explored in recent years. Human adaptive actions based on future scenarios of bloom dynamics and shifts in biogeographical distribution under climate-change parameters remain under development and not yet implemented on a regional scale. In the CoCliME (Co-development of climate services for adaptation to changing marine ecosystems) project these issues were addressed with respect to past, current and anticipated future status of key HAB genera and expected benefits of enhanced monitoring. Data on the distribution and frequency of Alexandrium blooms related to paralytic shellfish toxin (PST) events from key CoCliME Case Study areas, comprising the North Sea and adjacent Kattegat-Skagerrak, Norwegian Sea, and Baltic Sea, and eastern North Atlantic marginal seas, were evaluated in a contemporary and historical context over the past several decades. The first evidence of possible biogeographical expansion of Alexandrium taxa into eastern Arctic gateways was provided from DNA barcoding signatures. Various key climate change indicators, such as salinity, temperature, and water-column stratification, relevant to Alexandrium bloom initiation and development were identified. The possible influence of changing variables on bloom dynamics, magnitude, frequency and spatial and temporal distribution were interpreted in the context of regional ocean climate models. These climate change impact indicators may play key roles in selecting for the occurrence and diversity of Alexandrium species within the broader microeukaryote communities. For example, shifts to higher temperature and lower salinity regimes predicted for the southern North Sea indicate the potential for increased Alexandrium blooms, currently absent from this area. Ecological and socioeconomic impacts of Alexandrium blooms and effects on fisheries and aquaculture resources and coastal ecosystem function are evaluated, and, where feasible, effective adaptation strategies are proposed herein as emerging climate services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Environmental policies are broadly claimed to rely on sound scientific evidence because of the complexity, the uncertainty and the diverging political stakes that characterize issues like biodiversity decline or climate change. Classical advisory formats like assessments or standing advisory bodies have proliferated widely – especially at the global and national levels – yet exert only a limited influence on political decision-making, particularly in sub-national and local implementation contexts. Against this background, scholars have called for ‘bottom-up’ approaches to Science-policy interfaces that move from ‘problem to policy’. In the area of climate change, numerous ‘climate services’ have evolved at national, sub-national and even local levels, with the promise of being more decision-oriented. Four climate services in three European countries (the United Kingdom, Germany and Switzerland) are investigated regarding whether and how they institutionalize and enact knowledge brokerage in a credible, salient and legitimate way. Focusing on the institutional and strategic design principles of this advisory setting in climate policy, insights are generated for the biodiversity policy field, where comparable settings are still broadly lacking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the last four decades, climate services (CS) have moved from being limited forecasting tools in their predictive capacity to becoming involved in the shaping of risk assessment instruments with global reach affected to enhance adaptation to climate change. Yet, they have been relatively overlooked by human geographers and critical risk theorists, whose interests have been to document the political processes involved in shaping climate change and the global scientific enterprise it has generated. By looking at the ways in which CS have been developed and exported to countries deemed as climate-vulnerable, the paper sheds light on two simultaneous kinds of knowledge politics that are occurring at the interstices of global human security aspirations and the realpolitik of local practices. The first emerges from the ways in which CS political relevance has been secured by climate scientists in the midst of grand developmentalist and humanitarian ambitions, what we have called beneficent knowledge politics. The second comes from the nitty-gritty of risk management practices in countries to which CS are exported, in this case China, and highlights how a myriad of knowledge and sensitivities involved in shaping risk and science have been overlooked by the superseding ideals underpinning the production of CS and their application to wider climate adaptation agenda. By doing so, the paper contributes to the geographies of risk and emergencies as well as to the geographies of science by enhancing our understanding of the knowledge politics at play in the development of and resistance to technocratic climate governance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Decision-makers need tailored information regarding future climate, land use, forest management and societal scenarios for sustainable watershed management. Such information can be attained by integrating the water-energy-land nexus approach with climate services. To support decision-makers from Brașov metropolitan area (Romania), we co-developed land use, forest management and societal scenarios and analysed their impact on the water-energy-land nexus under climate change. We applied the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to the Săcele reservoir from the Tărlung river basin in order to spot the interrelations between nexus components under different climate and societal scenarios. In particular, we applied four bias-corrected GCM & RCM model combinations for two climate scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, nine land use and forest management scenarios, and twelve societal scenarios. Modelling results were analysed between 2020 and 2099. The results for the study area indicate that the projected average annual precipitation is close to historical averages in most climate scenarios explored, while the projected average annual temperature is increasing. Furthermore, the analysed data suggest an increase in severe dry intervals from approximately 6% (for the period 1961–2013) to 12% by the end of the 21st century, indicating that precipitation variability may change considerably. The SWAT model results show no significant changes in the water flow under different forest management scenarios. In contrast, model results for scenarios that imply forests' clearcutting and their replacement with pastures or meadows indicate that water quality is affected by increased sediment flow. Regarding the number of months with water scarcity in the Săcele reservoir (i.e. water demand exceeds water supply), we found an increase from 0.4 months in 2020 to 1.5 months in 2099. The model results also revealed that climate change significantly influences the water supply in the reservoir. To conclude, the regional stakeholders highly value the model results for the co-developed scenarios, which have been already used to promote sustainable resource management. [Display omitted] • Co-production with decision-makers to integrate WELN with climate service. • Local decision-makers are the key factor for sustainable management of WELN. • Assessing WELN interlinkage under land-use, societal and climate scenarios. • Using the nexus approach to identify gaps in policy-making. • Nexus approach for SDGs achievement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To explore whether a climate services approach can enable both energy saving and indoor comfort. After analysis of the local weather forecast, the air conditioning temperature of a government building was set to be adjusted at 7:30, 11:00, and 17:00. The indoor temperature and humidity were measured by using a MAPS6.0 sensor, and thermal comfort was calculated using ISO 7730 standards. Multiple regression analysis was used to examine the correlation between the weather forecast and chiller energy consumption. After a three-stage air conditioning temperature control process was implemented, predicted mean vote values between 0 and 0.5 were achieved for 79.1% of the working hours in the experimental period. Outdoor and air conditioning temperatures were the most critical factors affecting the hourly energy consumption of the air conditioner and water-cooled chiller. With every 1 °C increase in the outdoor temperature, the hourly energy consumption increased by 6.57. Moreover, with every 1 °C increase in the air conditioner temperature, the hourly energy consumption decreased by 8.63. A predicted mean vote value of >0.5 was recorded for 15.9% of the working hours; this may be related to high indoor humidity, weather forecast inaccuracies, and the air conditioner being turned on too late in the day. From July to October 2021, 8749 kW h of electricity were saved, and carbon emissions were reduced by 1405 kg. Regulating air conditioning temperatures through weather forecasts can achieve energy savings. • Three-stage air conditioning control process reduces carbon emissions. • Three-stage air conditioning control process saves electricity. • Air conditioning temperature controlling using weather forecasts saves energy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The livelihood of many farmers across the globe is affected by climate variability and change. Providing weather and seasonal climate information is expected to support farmers to make adaptive farming decisions. Yet, for many farmers, scientific forecast information provided remains unreliable for decision-making. Scholars have called for the need to integrate indigenous and scientific forecasts to improve forecast information at the local level. In Northern Ghana, scientific forecast information from meteorological agency is unacceptable to farmers, making them rely on indigenous forecasts for adaptive decisions. This study proposed an integrated probability forecasting (IPF) method that integrates indigenous and scientific forecasts into a single forecast. As a proof of concept, we tested the reliability of IPF using binary forecast verification method and evaluated its acceptability to farmers through internally consistent multiple-response questions. Results of the reliability test show that IPF performed on average better than indigenous and scientific forecasts at a daily timescale. At the seasonal timescale, IPF and indigenous forecast performed better than Scientific forecast, although in terms of probability IF showed better results overall. Majority of the farmers (93%) prefer the IPF method as this provides a reliable forecast, requires less time, and at the same time resolves the contradictions arising from forecast information from different sources. The results also show that farmers already integrate (complementary) scientific and indigenous forecasts to make farming decisions. However, their complementary approach does not resolve the issue of contradictory forecast information. From our proof of concept, we conclude that integrating indigenous and scientific forecasts can potentially increase forecast reliability and uptake. • Forecasts information from different sources are often contradictory, affecting farmers decision making. • Combining indigenous and scientific forecast can potentially improve reliability and usefulness of forecast information. • Integrated forecast has far greater acceptability potential among farmers. • Integrated probability forecasting method ensures co-production of forecast information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Seasonal forecasts performed well over some locations in the Euro-Mediterranean. • Multi-model forecast are encouraged to increase the extent of skillful predictions. • Quantile mapping is the most preferable bias correction technique. Climate change is affecting the interannual variability and the seasonal cycle for key meteorological variables, as well as the frequency, intensity, duration and timing of out-of-the-norm and extreme events. In such a context, seasonal forecasts (i.e., climate predictions from a few weeks to several months ahead) are compelling instruments able to anticipate upcoming climate risks and guide tactical decisions. In this study, we assess the performance of seasonal forecasts for the summer period across Central Europe and the Mediterranean region in predicting some key indicators serving agriculture and forestry sectors, i.e., Potential EvapoTranspiration (PET), Potential Soil Moisture Deficit (PSMD), and Fire Weather Index (FWI). We exploit authoritative climate data from Copernicus Climate Data Store, i.e., ERA5 reanalyses and hindcasts from CMCC SPSv3 and ECMWF SEAS5 seasonal prediction systems (SPSs), to evaluate, using both deterministic and probabilistic evaluation scores, differences in performance across the two SPSs, two start dates (March and May) and four correction techniques applied to overcome modelling bias, namely bias correction (BC), calibration (CAL), quantile mapping (QM) and detrending (DET). Results show that seasonal predictions of PET perform better in Western and Eastern Europe and some areas of North Africa. PSMD predictions follow a similar spatial pattern as PET, except that for some areas in Central (Eastern) Europe in which the performance increases (decreases). FWI predictions reveal better results in some areas of the Iberian Peninsula, North-Western Africa, Balkan Peninsula, and Ukraine. Results also suggest that QM might be the most suitable technique for bias correction. Furthermore, the start date of the forecast might imply varying correlation significance, with the start date closest to the forecasted period not always being the best. Overall, our study suggests the potential usefulness of seasonal forecasts for decision making under different geographical and environmental contexts, considering sensitivity inherent to different processing chains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Identify the activities of a global climate service knowledge system (KS). • Analyze the Global Framework of Climate Services as a KS. • Key activities include shaping vision, building capacity, and creating connections. • KS tensions relate to its purpose and who has influence in the KS. • Strategies for KS stewardship are theorizing, legitimizing, and managing knowledge. Knowledge systems are mechanisms that can drive climate adaptation through the pursuits of enhancing resource sharing, collaboration, and learning, while at the same time helping to develop trust and credibility among individuals and intuitions. While these goals are widely discussed, less is known about the activities and strategies that knowledge systems undertake to achieve these goals. We analyze the Global Framework of Climate Services (GFCS) as a knowledge system organized around the translation of weather and climate information for decision-making. The GFCS brings together the World Meteorological Organization, national meteorological and hydrological services, and some of the world's largest multilateral scientific, humanitarian, and development organizations. Our analysis draws on key informant interviews, focus groups conducted in African countries, and an online survey of GFCS participants. We describe the main activities pursued by the GFCS that shaped the vision of climate services, built capacity in national climate adaptation, and created connections among diverse actors and organizations worldwide. We show how these activities generated tensions about the purpose of the GFCS and how influence among the knowledge system was distributed. Based on our results, we illustrate new ways to conceptualize the strategies of knowledge systems, which we describe as (1) theorizing the norms of practice and mechanisms of change, (2) legitimizing actors, and (3) managing knowledge. These strategies identify pathways for, and pitfalls to, a knowledge system's pursuit of its goals, providing guidance to managers of knowledge systems and an analytical framework to evaluate their impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Climate services are identified as a means of providing the information that is needed to support decision makers in assessing the impacts of climate change on the oceans. We discuss the current observation programs to support these services, and their capacity to provide the information needed to monitor and address key science questions. An analysis of the current oceanographic observation programs is shown to be undersubscribed from their original plans. There are vulnerabilities in the current observing programs, particularly in relation to satellite measurements. The interaction of climate services with the research community, with policy makers and stakeholders and operational centres is outlined and leads to four recommendations. The key recommendations are for the more pervasisve development of climate services and for a modest increment in the observing program informed by the recommendations of the OceanObs’09 conference. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The tourism sector is one of the largest and fastest growing global industries and is a significant contributor to national and local economies around the world. The interface between climate and tourism is multifaceted and complex, as climate represents both a vital resource to be exploited and an important limiting factor that poses risks to be managed by the tourism industry and tourists alike. All tourism destinations and operators are climate-sensitive to a degree and climate is a key influence on travel planning and the travel experience. This chapter provides a synopsis of the capacities and needs for climate services in the tourism sector, including current and emerging applications of climate services by diverse tourism end-users, and a discussion of key knowledge gaps, research and capacity-building needs and partnerships that are required to accelerate the application of climate information to manage risks to climate variability and facilitate successful adaptation to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Epistemological and social dimension of knowledge co-production. • Challenges of coproducing climate services for agricultural production. • Power structure's role in the knowledge co-production process and climate impacts. • Heterogeneous knowledge dialogue for socially meaningful climate products. • Knowledge co-production for individual and collective climate change adaptation. When engaging in an interdisciplinary and intersectoral knowledge coproduction process, what premises should (academic and non-academic) participants consider to prevent power dynamics and divergent interests from becoming epistemological obstacles (Bachelard, 1974)? What methodological devices should be adopted to enable a productive dialogue between heterogeneous actors and knowledge? Despite the plethora of literature on the relevance of participatory approaches and the promotion of open science to produce socially meaningful knowledge, most works neglect central challenges present in any coproduction experience. Namely, how to deal with power dynamics, how to challenge the identity anchors of the participants and how to ensure the epistemological conditions for initiating long-term collaboration. Hence, based on these concerns, this paper puts forth the theoretical-methodological basis of a knowledge coproduction approach for the development of climate services for family farming. In addition, we present two major results achieved in the framework of a coproduction process involving academic and non-academic participants: the development of a community-based rainfall monitoring network in the eastern region of the South American Gran Chaco and the codesign of a smartphone application. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is likely to increase droughts. The vulnerability of cities to droughts is increasing worldwide. Policy responses from cities to droughts lack consideration of long-term climatic and socio-economic scenarios, and focus on short-term emergency actions that disregard sustainability in the connected regional and river basin systems. We aim to explore the dynamics of the water-energy-land nexus in urban systems suffering increased climate change-related droughts, and their implications for sustainability. We complement a case study with a literature review providing cross-regional insights, and detail pervasive knowledge, policy and ambition gaps in the interaction between cities and droughts. We show that water availability with low emissions, without compromising ecosystems and with low costs to society, poses a local-scale limit to sustainable urban growth, a new concept delineating the limits to growth in cities. We conclude that urban and river basin planners need to institutionalize transparency and cross-sectoral integration in multi-sector partnerships, to consider long-term land use planning together with water and energy, and to apply integrated climate services to cities. Our study reveals the importance of including land, water and energy in long-term urban planning, and to connect them with the county, region, river basin and global scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Incentive-based conservation has gained ample notoriety over recent decades, particularly across Latin America where targeted incentives feature prominently in environmental services initiatives, such as for carbon storage or watershed regulation. Here we first develop an analytical framework for assessing the Peruvian initiatives of conservation incentives. We then identify six ongoing interventions that have introduced incentives conditional upon compliance with voluntary environmental commitments. We collected information from secondary sources and conducted semi-structured interviews with thirty national- and local-level stakeholders. We scrutinized the extent to which such initiatives featured impact-oriented design and implementation elements, as typically recommended in the state-of-the-art literature on Payment for Environmental Services (PES) and Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+). We found only limited adoption of such recommendations, including spatial targeting, payment differentiation, enforced conditionality, and customized measures nurturing locally perceived equity and transparency. We argue, supported by a still incipient rigorous evidence from impact evaluations, that suboptimal design and implementation choices probably have influenced outcomes towards limiting the sought-for environmental and welfare impacts. We discuss three critical aspects for upscaling: overcoming financial and legal constraints, strategic involvement of non-government stakeholders, and more impact-oriented design of the interventions. • We develop an analytical framework to assess the introduction of effective conditional conservation incentives (CCI) in Peru. • 60+ such initiatives have emerged in this Millennium, but very few show notable progress. • The six CCI analyzed here present adopted design features that are often at odds with the theory behind conditional payments. • The still scarce rigorous evidence available indicates suboptimal environmental and social outcomes so far. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Valuation of ecosystem services is a powerful lens for viewing the impacts of land-use changes on society and the environment. Land-use change — a pervasive driver of changes in ecosystem services — has never been investigated for its effects on overall ecosystem services in Pakistan. In this study, I use the value transfer method to valuate Pakistan's ecosystem services for the years 1950, 2000, 2015 and 2050. Four land-use scenarios, developed under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios, are analyzed for year 2050. The results show an increase of $87 billion (in USD 2017) in the value of ecosystem services between years 1950 and 2000 due to the construction of dams and expansion of agricultural areas into the deserts. However, there is a sharp drop of $70 billion between years 2000 and 2015. All future scenarios for year 2050 except B2—an eco-friendly scenario—show a decline (ranging from 12 to 21%) in the value of ecosystem services for year 2015, due to decreased open water, forest and agricultural areas. As a result of compact urbanization, medium economic growth and decline in desertification rates, B2 yields a higher value (by ~$8 billion) than that of year 2015. Furthermore, assessing the two critical services for the country, climate and water services, shows that the value of climate services continuously decreases for years 2000, 2015 and 2050 in comparison to their value for year 1950 due to shrinking of forest and grassland areas. On the other hand, the value of water services increases from 1950 to 2000 due to the scaling up of the irrigation system, but plummets for the 2015 and future land-use scenarios in response to reduced open water. Yet, per capita values for both services (climate and water) show a decrease for years 2000, 2015 and 2050 compared to year 1950. These results can inform land-use planning for efficient provision of ecosystem services in Pakistan. Image 1 • Pakistan's ecosystem services value is assessed on a large timescale of 100 years. • Agricultural expansion increased the ecosystem services value between 1950 and 2000. • Eco-services value dropped between 2000 and 2015 due to reduction in natural land cover. • In comparison with 2015, the value of eco-services drops for all 2050 land use scenarios except B2—eco-friendly scenario. • The study informs future land use planning and environmental development in Pakistan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Most climate change researchers in California want to increase their engagement with practitioners, and the more researchers focus on climate change, the more they want to engage practitioners. • The frequency of engagement with practitioners varies significantly across academic fields. • The most highly engaged disciplines are also the most peripheral disciplines in climate science. • Representing empirically the social structure of climate research, including its demographic and disciplinary composition, can inform future research on the "co-production" of climate information in contexts of public decision-making. Interactions between researchers and practitioners can lead to the increased use of climate science in decision-making. Past studies on these interactions have focused on the information needs of decision-makers, but less is known about why and how climate researchers choose to engage with decision-makers. Understanding the experiences, beliefs and constraints on both sides of the 'knowledge-action gap' is critical for implementing robust climate adaptation strategies. This study thus examines the perspectives and experiences of researchers regarding practitioner engagement, drawing from an original survey of California's climate research community (N = 991) and supplemental interviews. Given a history of support for climate research and climate change adaptation, analysis of the California case is useful as a means of characterizing the relationship between climate research and practitioner engagement. We find that most scientists want to engage more with practitioners but are constrained by several factors, including resource limitations and the challenge of building relationships. Additionally, we find that the level of interest and frequency of engagement with stakeholders varies significantly across academic disciplines. We demonstrate that building capacity within research organizations and integrating stakeholder engagement in funding criteria and professional development can help foster relationship-building between scientists and decision-makers. The analysis suggests that the social structure of climate research warrants further examination of the ways that climate researchers relate to practitioners at present. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Grassland model PaSim used to simulate a mown grassland system in central France. • Climate-dependent timeseries of optimal forage yield generated. • Remarkable increase in simulated forage yield (>29%) observed in the long term. • Annual forage yield values robustly correlated with teleconnection patterns. • Skillful seasonal forecasts of forage yield attained from climatic predictors. Climate Services (CS) provide support to decision makers across socio-economic sectors. In the agricultural sector, one of the most important CS applications is to provide timely and accurate yield forecasts based on climate prediction. In this study, the Pasture Simulation model (PaSim) was used to simulate, for the period 1959–2015, the forage production of a mown grassland system (Laqueuille, Massif Central of France) under different management conditions, with meteorological inputs extracted from the SAFRAN atmospheric database. The aim was to generate purely climate-dependent timeseries of optimal forage production, a variable that was maximized by brighter and warmer weather conditions at the grassland. A long-term increase was observed in simulated forage yield, with the 1995–2015 average being 29% higher than the 1959–1979 average. Such increase seems consistent with observed rising trends in temperature and CO 2 , and multi-decadal changes in incident solar radiation. At interannual timescales, sea surface temperature anomalies of the Mediterranean (MED), Tropical North Atlantic (TNA), equatorial Pacific (El Niño Southern Oscillation) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index were found robustly correlated with annual forage yield values. Relying only on climatic predictors, we developed a stepwise statistical multi-regression model with leave-one-out cross-validation. Under specific management conditions (e.g., three annual cuts) and from one to five months in advance, the generated model successfully provided a p -value<0.01 in correlation (t -test), a root mean square error percentage (%RMSE) of 14.6% and a 71.43% hit rate predicting above/below average years in terms of forage yield collection. This is the first modeling study on the possible role of large-scale oceanic–atmospheric teleconnections in driving forage production in Europe. As such, it provides a useful springboard to implement a grassland seasonal forecasting system in this continent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The water-energy-land nexus requires long-sighted approaches that help avoid maladaptive pathways to ensure its promise to deliver insights and tools that improve policy-making. Climate services can form the foundation to avoid myopia in nexus studies by providing information about how climate change will alter the balance of nexus resources and the nature of their interactions. Nexus studies can help climate services by providing information about the implications of climate-informed decisions for other economic sectors across nexus resources. First-of-its-kind guidance is provided to combine nexus studies and climate services. The guidance consists of ten principles and a visual guide, which are discussed together with questions to compare diverse case studies and with examples to support the application of the principles. Unlabelled Image • First-of-its-kind guidance on combining climate services with the water-energy-land nexus • New definition of the nexus based on networks and complexity science • A set of 10 guiding principles for local to regional cross-sectoral integrated assessment • Guiding questions to compare nexus case studies [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]