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The use of scenarios and quantitative modelling to identify pathways for energy system transformations in line with the Paris targets is well established in the field of energy and climate policy. The resulting decarbonization pathways depend on both assumptions and the type of model used (e.g., integrated assessment models, energy system, macro-econometric or bottom-up sector models). The objective of this article is to analyze how energy demand sectors in system-wide net-zero scenarios for the EU compare to the results of sector-specific models. To this end, a novel approach referred to as "sectoral benchmarking" is developed and applied, combining the application of standard indicators such as energy intensity, electrification rate or carbon intensity with an index decomposition analysis. The combined approach allows visualizing how system-wide decarbonization pathways differ from the sector models' pathways by bringing the model output in a harmonized format for an efficient comparison. The analysis compares pathways from four different modelling tools: two European system models, one of which is an energy system model (EU TIMES) and the other a macro-econometric model (NEMESIS); as well as two sector-specific models, for transport (ALADIN) and for the industry and building sectors (FORECAST). We evaluate the system model's net-zero scenarios by comparing them to a corridor given by the sector models' current policy and net-zero emission scenarios. This corridor represents what the sector models deem as plausible from their bottom-up perspective within the boundaries of current policies and ambitions to reach net-zero. Our results show that the system model net-zero pathways differ substantially from the sectoral perspective in all sectors. In the industry and building sectors, both system models' decarbonization ambitions are within the sector corridor, but the employed mitigation levers differ. In the industry sectors, the sectoral model achieves substantial CO 2 emission reductions with electrification, while the system models use more bioenergy (EU TIMES) or more energy efficiency (NEMESIS). In the building sector, both system models rely mostly on electrification, while the sector models relies on biomass and some district heat and electrification. In the transport sector, both system models' decarbonization ambition is substantially lower than the sector model's. The observed differences are caused by a variety of factors, which we evaluate in this article. One reason is the system models' lower ambition to decarbonize the end-use sectors due to their ability to compensate with negative emission technologies across sectors. In addition, employed mitigation levers differ due to the models' differing capabilities to consider technologies as well as differences in the allocation of bioenergy to sectors. Our findings can be used to determine how the different types of models can inform each other and to make the diverging decarbonization pathways more transparent to policy-makers and other relevant stakeholders. • System-wide EU net-zero scenarios are compared to sector model decarbonization. • System-wide scenarios use negative emissions instead of ambitious end-use levers. • A novel approach to assess sectoral dynamics in system-wide scenarios is presented. • Transport sector model more ambitious than system-wide net zero scenarios. • System-wide scenarios mostly within sector model range for industry and buildings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The European power system is currently experiencing new challenges due to growing shares of intermittent renewable energy sources. Compared to other flexibility options, power-to-heat (PtH) technologies have a high level of maturity. The goal is, therefore, to analyse the potential for PtH in the European energy system and possible business models that enable the exploitation of these potentials. A literature review on the European and country-level potential for PtH is carried out revealing a wide range of these potentials. An own approach assesses the potential in district heating for selected European countries. PtH potential makes up a remarkable share of the peak electrical load, but varies due to the inhomogeneous nature of the investigated national energy systems and different weather conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An application of the innovative city planning method, developed within the EU FP7 project InSMART, is applied to the municipality of Cesena (Italy). A multi-model approach is used to explore and rank alternative plans (combinations of actions and measures) towards the sustainable development of the municipality, with a particular focus on the residential and transport sectors. On the basis of the possible space of decisions of the municipality (which can be seen as “urban planner”, as “regulator”, as “provider of support and information”, as “consumer” and as “supplier” of energy), alternative planning hypotheses have been prepared and tested making use of a city-energy system model and scenario analysis. Scenarios are built around different themes with the aim of exploring the potential benefits (or drawbacks) of the combination of specific “competitive” projects, actions, standards, targets. A reference development of the local system is assumed to be modified through six combinations of actions and measures aiming at representing six pillars of alternative pathways towards the sustainability. Figures below report the key themes and hypotheses taken into consideration in the planning exercise. Once the dynamic pictures of the urban system are produced (one per each alternative), a multi-criteria method is used to determine the ranking of the options, evaluated against a set of elements (technological, social, environmental, economic). This stage is still ongoing and will generate the whole dataset (weights, preference functions) required to rank the alternatives in the next few months. All these alternative strategies are designed with the involvement of the municipality of Cesena, to directly respond their needs of knowledge about potential impacts of different action plans. Compared to the existing city strategic energy action plans, the advantage of the outputs of this approach is the fact that multiple future energy scenarios are analysed and cross-compared and “integrated” strategies ranked. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy security is an interdisciplinary concept. Its definitions leaves it vulnerable to exploitation as a justification for energy policy instruments. The extensive literature has yet to converge to formulate a unified definition of energy security and many outline a multitude of methods of measurement, such as the Supply/Demand index applied here in modified form, but also the Hirshman-Herfindahl Index, the Shannon Index for fuel diversity, and others. However, many of these index methods do not explicitly take into account the techno-economic interdependencies which influence energy security within the energy system. This paper reviews the literature to establish an energy security assessment method considering perspectives from sovereignty, infrastructural robustness, and market resilience. The aim of the paper is to provide a transparent data rich method and assessment of energy security by means of an application of a systemic energy security index to historical data and potential projected techno-economic energy system scenario analysis for a decarbonising Irish Energy System. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In this paper we present a soft-linking methodology that employs detailed simulation outputs from a dedicated power systems model to gain insights and understanding of the generation electricity plant portfolio results for the electricity sector from a separate energy systems model. We apply the methodology and present and discuss the results. The motivation for this soft-linking is to provide a transfer of information from the power systems model strong points to the energy systems model and use this information to improve and develop understanding of energy systems model results. Part of this motivation is derived from a view that one specific energy modeling tool cannot address all aspects of the full energy system in great detail and greater insights and progress can be gained by drawing on the strengths of multiple modeling tools rather than trying to incorporate them all into one comprehensive model. The methodology takes an optimized generation portfolio for a specific year from an energy systems model and undertakes a detailed high resolution chronological simulation of the same portfolio in the power systems model with added degrees of technical detail. Results presented here show that in the absence of key technical constraints, an energy systems model can potentially undervalue flexible resources, underestimate wind curtailment and overestimate the use of baseload plant. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper presents a methodological framework using a multi model approach to assess power system security. System security is viewed here as a multidimensional systemic property of the entire energy system. The paper shows that the different dimensions of a secure energy system are correlated, and hence their behaviour cannot be explained solely by an understanding of the individual dimensions or by system elements in isolation. The implication of this is that a proper assessment of the security of a power system requires a combination of different techno-economic models. The paper develops a comprehensive multi-model approach for investigating energy security issues within power systems, and applies it to a case study focussing on the Italian power sector. The core research activity involves using an energy systems model of Italy (MONET) to build a dedicated power systems model (PLEXOS_IT) and then undertaking a soft-linking exercise between the two models. The purpose is to use PLEXOS_IT to investigate the system adequacy of the power system results produced by MONET for future possible energy system scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Achieving ambitious climate change mitigation targets clearly requires a focus on transport that should include changes in travel behaviour in addition to increased vehicle efficiency and low-carbon fuels. Most available energy/economy/environment/engineering (E4) modelling tools focus however on technology and fuel switching and tend to poorly incorporate mitigation options from travel behaviour, and in particular, switching between modes is not an option. This paper describes a novel methodology for incorporating competition between private cars, buses and trains in a least-cost linear optimisation E4 model, called TIMES. This is achieved by imposing a constraint on overall travel time in the system, which represents the empirically observed fixed travel time budget (TTB) of individuals, and introducing a cost for infrastructural investments (travel time investment, TTI), which reduces the travel time of public transport. Two case studies from California and Ireland are developed using a simple TIMES model, and results are generated to 2030 for a reference scenario, an investments scenario and a CO 2 emissions reduction scenario. The results show that with no travel time constraint, the model chooses public transport exclusively. With a travel time constraint, mode choice is determined by income and investment cost assumptions, and the level of CO 2 constraint, with greater levels of public transport in the mitigation scenario. At low travel investment cost, new rail is introduced for short distances and increased bus capacity for longer distances. At higher investment costs rail is increasingly chosen for long distances also. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the EU, COVID-19 and associated policy responses led to economy-wide disruptions and shifts in services demand, with considerable energy-system implications. The European Commission's response paved the way towards enhancing climate ambition through the European Green Deal. Understanding the interactions among environmental, social, and economic dimensions in climate action post-COVID thus emerged as a key challenge. This study disaggregates the implications of climate ambition, speed of economic recovery from COVID-19, and behavioural changes due to pandemic-related measures and/or environmental concerns for EU transition dynamics, over the next decade. It soft-links two large-scale energy-economy models, EU-TIMES and NEMESIS, to shed light on opportunities and challenges related to delivering on the EU's 2030 climate targets. Results indicate that half the effort required to reach the updated 55% emissions reduction target should come from electricity decarbonisation, followed by transport. Alongside a post-COVID return to normal, the European Green Deal may lead to increased carbon prices and fossil-fuel rebounds, but these risks may be mitigated by certain behavioural changes, gains from which in transport energy use would outweigh associated consumption increases in the residential sector. Finally, the EU recovery mechanism could deliver about half the required investments needed to deliver on the 2030 ambition. • This study soft-links an energy system model and a macroeconometric model for the EU. • Electricity decarbonisation can make up half the effort to −55% followed by transport. • Investments as part of EU green recovery could finance about half of what is required. • The pandemic is unlikely to heavily impact the EU's long-term emissions trajectory. • Work- and travel-related behaviour changes could considerably reduce investment needs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hydrogen is a promising avenue for decarbonising energy systems and providing flexibility. In this paper, the JRC-EU-TIMES model – a bottom-up, technology-rich model of the EU28 energy system – is used to assess the role of hydrogen in a future decarbonised Europe under two climate scenarios, current policy initiative (CPI) and long-term decarbonisation (CAP). Our results indicate that hydrogen could become a viable option already in 2030 – however, a long-term CO 2 cap is needed to sustain the transition. In the CAP scenario, the share of hydrogen in the final energy consumption of the transport and industry sectors reaches 5% and 6% by 2050. Low-carbon hydrogen production technologies dominate, and electrolysers provide flexibility by absorbing electricity at times of high availability of intermittent sources. Hydrogen could also play a significant role in the industrial and transport sectors, while the emergence of stationary hydrogen fuel cells for hydrogen-to-power would require significant cost improvements, over and above those projected by the experts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies focusing on 100% renewable energy systems have emerged in recent years; however, existing studies tend to focus only on the power sector using exploratory approaches. This paper therefore undertakes a whole-system approach and explores optimal pathways towards 100% renewable energy by 2050. The analysis is carried out for Ireland, which currently has the highest share of variable renewable electricity on a synchronous power system. Large numbers of scenarios are developed using the Irish TIMES model to address uncertainties. Results show that compared to decarbonization targets, focusing on renewable penetration without considering carbon capture options is significantly less cost effective in carbon mitigation. Alternative assumptions on bioenergy imports and maximum variability in power generation lead to very different energy mixes in bioenergy and electrification levels. All pathways suggest that indigenous bioenergy needs to be fully exploited and the current annual deployment rate of renewable electricity needs a boost. Pathways relying on international bioenergy imports are slightly cheaper and faces less economic and technical challenges. However, given the large future uncertainties, it is recommended that further policy considerations be given to pathways with high electrification levels as they are more robust towards uncertainties. • 100% renewable energy can be achieved by multiple pathways with similar cost levels. • Focusing only on renewables is not the most cost-effective path to decarbonization. • Pathways relying on bioenergy import are more susceptible to uncertainties. • Indigenous bioenergy needs to be exploited to its full potential. • Much greater efforts than current national action plans are required. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]