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In the light of a future decarbonized power grid based primarily on non-dispatchable renewable energy sources, the operation of industrial plants should be decarbonized and flexible. An innovative, novel concept combining industrial plants with (i) a water electrolysis unit, (ii) a hydrogen storage unit and (iii) a fuel cell unit would enable seasonal supply-demand balancing in the local power grid and storage of surplus energy in the form of stable solid products. The feasibility of this concept was demonstrated in a case study, taking into account the overall energy balance and economics. The characteristics of the local power grid and the hydrogen round-trip efficiency must be carefully considered when dimensioning the hydrogen units. It was found that industries producing iron and steel, cement, ceramics, glass, aluminum, paper and other metals have the potential for seasonal operation. Future research efforts in the fields of technology, economics and social sciences should support the sustainable flexibility transition of energy-intensive industries with solid products. [Display omitted] • Sustainable development will bring seasonal fluctuations in electricity supply. • An innovative method for balancing power supply and demand is proposed. • Energy-intensive industry sectors could adapt to utilize seasonal fluctuations. • Green hydrogen will serve as a short-term energy buffer. • Solid commodities will ensure stable storage of the seasonal energy surplus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fossil fuel subsidies represent a significant and widespread fiscal tool that governments can employ to maintain stability in domestic price levels. We develop and estimate a Bayesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model tailored for Malaysia, a net-exporting energy economy that captures this key channel of fiscal policy intervention. Fossil fuel price subsidies are often motivated as a means to stabilize vulnerable households, yet the government of Malaysia does not have a targeting policy. Accordingly, we use the model to address how consumption responds to an increase in inflation driven by a fossil fuel price shock. The results indicate that, while a fossil fuel price subsidy stabilizes consumption, we find that a subsidy can "crowd out" non-energy consumption as fiscal intervention increases. Furthermore, we find that while aggregate welfare increases with fiscal stabilization, the highest level of welfare is achieved with targeted subsidies, a contradiction which questions the merit of the current Malaysian energy policy. • Bayesian DSGE model is estimated for the Malaysian economy. • Model incorporates fossil fuel energy in consumption and production. • Fossil fuel price subsidies reduce inflation, but crowds out non-energy consumption. • Fiscal policy complements monetary policy by trading fossil fuel inflation for debt. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The European Union regulation on deforestation-free products (EUDR) represents a policy innovation with important implications for the governance of global commodity chains. We discuss the risks and limitations of this policy derived from an ex-ante assessment of the robustness of its theory of change. For doing so, we use insights from the literature on zero-deforestation commitments and other private standards in value chains and from trade and deforestation patterns in three relevant producer countries (Brazil, Colombia and Indonesia). Despite the potentially positive symbolic effect in mobilizing a global agenda for combating deforestation, the EUDR faces several drawbacks and risks associated with three of its constitutive features: To be demand-oriented, having the value chain as the unit of intervention and holding a high degree of unilateralism. We conclude that to be effective in curbing tropical deforestation, the Regulation must be complemented with international cooperation aiming to strengthen national policies with a territorial approach, as well as social movements addressing the underlying causes of forest loss and human rights violations in the territories where it takes place. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the dynamic connectedness of ESG Leaders and conventional equity indexes with commodities in emerging markets. Using data for emerging markets stocks from three regions (Asia, Europe, and Latin America), we compare the spillover effects from commodities to ESG and conventional indexes. Most of the transmission of shocks occurs between equity indexes, whereas spillover from commodities is limited. While there are similarities in the behavior of ESG Leaders and conventional index time series, slightly higher transmission is documented from commodities to conventional indexes compared to the ESG Leaders. Regional differences in connectedness are observed. However, from a portfolio management perspective, no notable differences can be seen between investing in either the ESG Leaders or conventional emerging market indexes when included in portfolios with commodities. [Display omitted] • Comparing the spillover effects from commodities to ESG and conventional emerging market equity indexes, most of the transmission of shocks occurs between equity indexes, whereas spillover from commodities is limited. • There is less transmission from commodities to ESG indexes compared to spillover from commodities to conventional equity indexes. • From a portfolio management perspective, the highest Sharpe ratios are noticed in portfolios based on minimizing dynamic connectedness. • Either a conventional or an ESG emerging market index can be included in a portfolio with commodities with a similar performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Leveraging interest rate term structure and commodity dynamics for enhanced recession prediction. • Global commodity price movements play a significant role in the short-term forecasting of brazilian economic conditions. • Our research reveals nuanced relationships between yield curve slopes and business cycles in brazil and the US. This study investigates the relationship between Brazilian economic cycles and two key indicators: the international S&P GSCI commodity index and the near-term forward spread derived from the Brazilian interest rate term structure. We find that the forward spread serves as a robust leading indicator of economic downturns in Brazil, offering recession forecasts up to four quarters in advance. This underscores a link between yield curve steepness and recession likelihood in Brazil. However, we uncover distinct cyclical behaviors in Brazil's term structure that diverge from patterns in the United States. Furthermore, our research reveals the significant influence of commodity price fluctuations on Brazil's economic performance, underscoring a strong correlation between commodity markets and economic outcomes. Examining term structure and commodity prices together provides novel insights into monitoring emerging market cycles. These indicators can assist policymakers and improve early warning systems, especially in developing economies like Brazil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Unlike very recent studies examining the most widely traded commodities (such as; oil and gold) under an overwhelming time pressure and amid high pandemic uncertainty, the effects of world pandemic and economic policy uncertainties along with price movements in common traditional asset classes on the renewable energy index are investigated. The empirical evidence is based on daily data covering the period from January 3, 2005 to June 30, 2020. The results from quantile regression show significant positive effects of the pandemic uncertainty on renewable energy index. In contrast, the empirical findings reveal negative effect of the economic policy uncertainty on the renewable energy index, particularly, in lower quantiles. Accordingly, the results indicate that the effect of the economic policy uncertainty is reversed as the quantiles increase. The study's practical applications are unique and have policy implications; for instance, suitable policies could convert the threats of pandemic uncertainty to great opportunities for renewable energy markets and ultimately, investors not only explore the scope for hedging the oil price risk, but they can reap further portfolio diversification benefits by investing in renewable energy stocks. • Effects of various drivers of uncertainty on the Renewable Energy index are examined. • Negative effect of economic uncertainty on Renewable Energy index is observed. • Renewable Energy index is negatively affected by Pandemic-induced uncertainty. • Turning threats into opportunities for Renewable Energy stocks can be realized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• This paper presents a generalized Noortman and Van Es' empty trips model that considers commodity groups and vehicle types. • The model allows the analyst to quantify the contribution of empty trips by the various types of commodities. • The results show that the proportions of empty trips generated by a given commodity varies across vehicle types. • The key contribution of the model is that it produces more precise estimates of empty trips as it includes the impacts of the cargo type in the generation of empty trips. • The proposed model could be used by planners to identify key commodities that could be paired together with equipment that could be re-purposed to reduce empty trips in their regions. This paper presents a generalized Noortman and Van Es' empty trips model that considers commodity groups and vehicle types. The model allows the analyst to quantify the contribution of empty trips by the various types of commodities. The model was validated using data collected in Colombia as part of the national Freight Origin-Destination Survey. The results reveal that not all commodities generate empty trips in similar proportions, and commodities that require specialized equipment are the ones with the largest proportion of empty trips generated. Moreover, the results show that the proportions of empty trips generated by a given commodity varies across vehicle types. The key contribution of the model is that it produces more precise estimates of empty trips as it includes the impacts of the cargo type in the generation of empty trips. The proposed model could be used by planners to identify key commodities that could be paired together with equipment that could be repurposed to reduce empty trips in their regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our study examines the dynamic correlations, portfolio weights and hedging effectiveness of adding commodities to international equity portfolios. The data covers the 2014/2015 commodities price crash. We compare commodities as a hedge for developed, emerging and frontier equities. Based on a DCC-GARCH framework, we show that forming hedged portfolios, including emerging, rather than developed and frontier market equities and commodities, has better hedging effectiveness in terms of risk reduction. When risk-adjusted returns are considered, developed markets and commodities provide a better investment performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Examining return connectedness between the largest US-based oil and gold ETFs and three major travel & leisure ETFs, we provide substantial value for understanding how investors can diversify sectoral risk. We also compare several portfolio strategies to explore interactive effects. Results indicate a high level of interdependence between gold, oil and the examined ETFs, where the minimum variance portfolio (MVP) is found to be the most efficient. Robustness testing reaffirms the finding that the gold ETF is an important portfolio rebalancing tool to specifically minimise risks associated with travel-related ETFs. Our results have important implications for investors and portfolio managers. • Return connectedness between US-based oil and gold ETFs and travel & leisure ETFs. • Compare several portfolio strategies to explore interactive effects. • High level of interdependence between gold, oil and the examined ETFs. • Gold ETF is an important portfolio rebalancing tool for travel-related ETFs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The deregulation of the U.S. railroad industry has largely been considered a success, as costs and rates have fallen due to changes in the mix of traffic and industry consolidation. However, rates did not fall as quickly as costs, and since 2000 rates have been rising while many measures of cost have remained relatively stable. We investigate these changes in rail rates using a sample of agricultural shipments from 2000–2016. We provide evidence that even after controlling for changes in cost drivers such as fuel, the relationships between prices and determinants have changed over time, suggesting that railroad pricing rules have driven increases in rates faced by shippers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aflatoxins are among the most important mycotoxins due to their widespread occurrence and adverse impacts on humans and animals. These toxins and/or their metabolites cannot be destroyed with cooking or boiling methods. Therefore, consumption of aflatoxin-contaminated food may lead to impaired growth, compromised immunity, stomach and liver cancer, and acute toxicity. These adverse effects along with food wastage might have detrimental consequences on a country's economy. Several studies from Pakistan reported a high prevalence of aflatoxins in food and feed commodities (Range; milk = 0.6–99.4%, cereals, and grains = 0.38–41%, animal feed = 31–100%). Notably, Pakistan reported very high figures of impaired child growth—stunted 40.2%, wasted 17.7% and underweight 28.9%—that could be associated with the higher aflatoxin prevalence in food items. Importantly, high aflatoxins prevalence, i.e. 100%, 69% and 60.5%, in children has been reported in Pakistan. Food and feed are more prone to aflatoxin contamination due to Pakistan's hot and humid climate; however, limited awareness, inadequate policy framework, and weak implementation mechanisms are the major obstacles to effective control. This review will discuss aflatoxins prevalence, associated risk factors, adverse health effects, required regulatory regime, and effective control strategies adopting the One Health approach to ensure food safety and security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study analyzed costs and benefits for Argentina when trading maize grain. Assigning an appropriate value to traded resources involves a comprehensive assessment of all kinds of sources driving the process, in order to avoid their misappropriation and non-profitable use, while at the same time enhancing the environmental performance of the region for the long term. Increasing amounts of slowly-renewable and non-renewable resources invested in producing intensive cash crops do not necessarily contribute to further development of local enterprises, nor does this strategy consider valuable contributions by local ecosystem services. The emergy method was applied to assess resource and environmental support used in production and trade of maize grain in the northern part of Argentina’s Pampas Region, in years 2009–10 and 2012–13. Exports were calculated for commercial periods 2010–11 and 2013–14. Results showed that intermediate organizations trading with importing countries through international grain traders (Emergy–to-Exchange Ratio, EER, for Argentina = 0.51) exported more environmental resources (emergy associated with exported grain) than emergy imports associated with monetary returns from traders to Argentina. This situation places the country in an unfair exchange. When trade was performed through national trade organizations, the EER = 0.91, resulting in a smaller disparity. Resource trade imbalance clearly appears when it is measured in emergy terms but not when it is accounted for in monetary units. This study provides data on which to open discussion and inform trade and production strategies that could help Argentina avoid jeopardizing its own natural resources in the long term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has raised concerns about the stability of energy supplies from Russia, one of the largest crude oil, refined products and natural gas producers in the world. This study aims to assess the impact of the conflict on crude oil and refined product prices globally by applying bivariate and multivariate different cross-correlation methods to evaluate the prices relations covering three periods, namely P 0 (from February 2019 to February 2020, before Covid-19 pandemic and also before the Russia–Ukraine war), P 1 (from February 2021 to February 2022, during the Covid-19 pandemic and before the Russia–Ukraine war) and P 2 (from February 2022 to February 2023, during both the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia–Ukraine war). The results indicate a significant difference between P 0 and the other periods (P 1 and P 2) for most bivariate pairs and multivariate groups. When comparing P 1 and P 2 , there was predominantly no significant difference for Heating Oil - Brent Crude Oil pair but a significant difference for Gasoil - Brent Crude Oil, suggesting a higher impact of the war on European diesel prices compared to the US diesel. Moreover, the adopted methods highlight the differential impacts and contagion effects observed in different energy commodities , emphasizing the complexity and unique dynamics within each market. • Futures contracts price dynamics are examined. • Brent crude oil, refined products and natural gas are considered. • Three periods namely pre and during Russia–Ukraine conflict are evaluated. • Bivariate and multivariate different cross-correlation methods are adopted. • Results indicate an evidence of contagion due to change in the energy market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With growing attention and concern regarding green instruments, in this paper, we test for the dynamic connectedness of green cryptocurrencies, green investment, conventional commodities and equities using wavelet coherence and the effect of uncertainty on their co-movements from 2018 to 2023. Contrary to previous research, our findings reveal that green cryptocurrencies do not exhibit hedge or safe haven properties, instead behaving no differently than diversifiers. Furthermore, we show a significant influence of financial uncertainty on the interconnectedness between green cryptocurrencies and other assets, indicating heightened exposure during market turmoil. As a result, less emphasis on green cryptocurrencies portfolio weightings should be placed and greater emphasis on green bonds and gold at time of financial distress. Their limited risk-reducing potential should also be considered for regulatory frameworks. Additionally, we note the similarities between green cryptocurrencies and conventional counterparts, evidenced by their dynamic homogeneity with Bitcoin and Ethereum, suggesting synchronization. Consequently, conventional cryptocurrencies could serve as proxies for green counterparts in portfolio management strategies. These findings contribute to the understanding of green cryptocurrency dynamics and have implications for investment decision-making and risk management strategies in sustainable finance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] Freight transportation is a significant source of emissions and public health (PH) externalities. This study estimates PH cost intensities of PM 2.5 (and precursors) from freight transportation in California for stratified freight movements using the California Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey, the Emission Factor model, and the Human Exposure Model Estimating Air pollution Social Impact Using Regression model. These data are combined to perform clustering, multiple linear regression (MLR), and stratified cost and spatial analyses. The clustering analysis identifies six groups of vehicle type and operational characteristics, with the mean cost per vehicle ranging from 57.6 (for short-haul, gasoline-fueled trucks) to $2,066 (for long-haul traveling mostly in California). The MLR finds that vehicle age, typical trip distances, fuel types, home-base location, and gross vehicle weight significantly impact a vehicle's PH costs. These findings can inform targeted planning, such as prioritizing vehicle technology incentives and other mitigation efforts related to freight externalities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Study of the co-movement in timescales across oil, gold, wheat, and copper. • Applying WLMC and considering recent crisis periods. • Correlations vary over timescales in a multivariate setting for both returns and implied volatility. • A stronger market integration is noted in the long-term than the short-term, reflecting the long-term cyclical behaviour of commodity prices. • Return and implied volatility of crude oil and gold dominate during crisis periods. We study time-scale co-movement of returns and implied volatilities of oil, gold, wheat, and copper in a multivariate setting using the wavelet local multiple correlation (WLMC) approach. Daily data cover January 03, 2007 – August 08, 2022, including the global financial crisis, COVID-19 pandemic, and Russia-Ukraine war. The results show that the correlations across the commodities are heterogeneous, less stable in the short-term, and more pronounced in the long-term, and vary in sign and magnitude. Despite market instability, contagion is not clearly seen in either return or volatility, reflecting noise trading and the importance of the individual characteristics of commodities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hog, corn, and soybean meal futures are shown to be cointegrated, reflecting the close intrinsic relationship of corn and soybean meal as the primary feed for hogs. Applying a recent technique to date-stamp pricing bubbles we further show that bubbles in feed do not appear to be associated with bubbles in the price of hogs. Instead there are temporary deviations in the spread between hog and feed, but the long-term cointegration relationship leads to a reversion towards the common trend. This finding sheds new insight into the price behaviour of commodities that depend for input costs on other commodities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the presence of the leverage effect in commodities, in comparison with financial markets. The EGARCH model with a Mixture of Normals distribution (EGARCH-MN) is used to capture (i) heavy tails and skewness in the conditional returns, and (ii) leverage effects and time-varying long-term component in the volatility specification. Besides, the estimation strategy relies on an innovative recursive (REC) method, which allows disentangling the leverage effect from the unconditional skewness as an empirical result. When applied to a broadly diversified dataset of assets during 1995–2012, the EGARCH-MN models offers state-of-the-art specifications with leverage and fat-tailed skewed densities, that allow to contrast the specific characteristics of commodities with traditional assets (equities, bonds, FX). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Supply chain stickiness refers to the stability of trade relationships. • We identify factors determining local stickiness in Brazil's soy supply chain. • Soy processing infrastructure and export-orientation increased stickiness. • Farm-gate market-price volatility decreased stickiness. • Stickiness appears to be highly context-specific. The global trade of agricultural commodities has profound social-ecological impacts, from potentially increasing food availability and agricultural efficiency, to displacing local communities, and to incentivizing environmental destruction. Supply chain stickiness, understood as the stability in trading relationships between supply chain actors, moderates the impacts of agricultural commodity production and the possibilities for supply-chain interventions. However, what factors determine stickiness, that is, how and why farmers, traders, food processors, and consumer countries, develop and maintain trading relationships with specific producing regions, remains unclear. Here, we use data on the Brazilian soy supply chain, a mixed methods approach based on extensive actor-based fieldwork, and an explanatory regression model, to identify and explore the factors that influence stickiness between places of production and supply chain actors. We find four groups of factors to be important: economic incentives, institutional enablers and constraints, social and power dimensions, and biophysical and technological conditions. Among the factors we explore, surplus capacity in soy processing infrastructure, (i.e., crushing and storage facilities) is important in increasing stickiness, as is export-oriented production. Conversely, volatility in market demand expressed by farm-gate soy prices and lower land-tenure security are key factors reducing stickiness. Importantly, we uncover heterogeneity and context-specificity in the factors determining stickiness, suggesting tailored supply-chain interventions are beneficial. Understanding supply chain stickiness does not, in itself, provide silver-bullet solutions to stopping deforestation, but it is a crucial prerequisite to understanding the relationships between supply chain actors and producing regions, identifying entry points for supply chain sustainability interventions, assessing the effectiveness of such interventions, forecasting the restructuring of trade flows, and considering sourcing patterns of supply chain actors in territorial planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the non-linear causal nexus at lower, medium, and upper quantiles that cryptocurrencies can generate as a hedging mechanism for international benchmark indices, as represented by the MSCI World index and its sectoral sub-indices. Significant causality-in-mean between each of the assets examined is detected at lower quantiles only in a small number of sectors, whereas all analysed assets are found to trigger important non-linear causal impacts on the volatility of the selected benchmark indices, particularly during periods denoted to possess significant asset price fluctuations. From a financial perspective, this result suggests that cryptocurrencies are developing to possess a very similar ability to that of long-standing traditional financial assets, serving as a hedging mechanism against extreme fluctuations within investor portfolios that include MSCI constituents during a variety of very different market conditions. • We investigate interactions between traditional assets, digital financial assets, and global indices. • Dynamic interactions are analysed when accounting for economic political uncertainty. • Oil, Ripple, and the EPU index are influential towards the MSCI World index. • Evidence suggests that all analysed MSCI indices receive significant effects from all assets investigated. • Volatile cryptocurrencies are found to correlate with international financial sector volatility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we examine the static and dynamic connectedness between the conventional Chinese stock market and commodity futures (aluminum, gold, copper, steel rebar, natural rubber, and zinc). Our results show that both steel rebar and gold receive whereas zinc and copper transmit changes across all quantiles. However, spillover behavior of aluminum, natural rubber, and CSI 300 vary across different quantiles. Our results have implications for investors who are considering a mix of Chinese conventional stocks and commodity futures in their portfolios. Our findings also provide insights for investing under different market conditions by providing results for static as well as dynamic connectedness between CSI 300 and the commodities market. [Display omitted] • We examine the static and dynamic connectedness between the conventional Chinese stock market and commodity futures. • We use the quantile connectedness and the net pairwise connectedness measures at different quantiles. • Steel rebar and gold exhibit net recipient behavior, while zinc and copper transmit changes across all quantiles. • Gold acts as a recipient of change, whereas copper transmits change toward other markets across the lower and upper quantiles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses the history and application of in situ recovery (ISR) to a wide variety of metals. The increasing application of ISR may provide an important method to address a key issue for the mining industry, namely the cost of production. ISR transfers a significant proportion of hydrometallurgical processing to mineralised bodies in the subsurface to directly obtain solutions of metals of interest. As a result, there is little surface disturbance and no tailings or waste rock are generated at ISR mines. However, for ISR to be successful, deposits need to be permeable (either naturally or artificially induced), and the metals of interest readily amenable to dissolution by leaching solutions in a reasonable period of time, with an acceptable consumption of leaching reagents. The paper discusses the following aspects of ISR: • History . ISR for uranium was introduced in 1959 in the USA, and subsequently applied in many countries over last 50 years, particularly in the USSR. The share of uranium mined by ISR reached 51% of world production in 2014, and the capacity of ISR mining of uranium is now comparable with that from conventional uranium mines. • Commodities . A review of the use of ISR for mining other commodities, namely copper, gold, nickel, scandium, rhenium, rare earth elements, yttrium, selenium, molybdenum, and vanadium. ISR for copper was introduced in the 1970s and there were several successful natural tests and mines. Scandium, rhenium, rare earth elements, yttrium, selenium, molybdenum, and vanadium were mined in pilot tests as by-products of uranium extraction. ISR of gold, copper, nickel, rare earth elements and scandium has been successfully developed over recent years. The paper discusses other commodities that have potential to be mined using ISR. • Applicability of ISR is addressed by a discussion of the features of mineralisation that need to be considered during different stages of ISR projects. Permeability, 1 1 More accurately is hydraulic conductivity or permeability coefficient, m/day. hydrogeological conditions and selective leachability are the most critical parameters for ISR, and must be defined in the evaluation and exploration stages. Morphology and depth of mineralisation, thicknesses and grades, distribution of mineralisation, presence of aquicludes, and environmental conditions are also important factors for ISR projects. • Environmental issues . ISR allows the extraction of mineralisation with minimal disturbance to existing natural conditions. In contrast to underground and open pit mining, there are smaller volumes of mining and hydrometallurgical effluents that require management. Clearly contamination of groundwater by ISR reagents is the critical aspect requiring management during an ISR operation. Control of leaching in ISR operations and various ways of cleaning aquifers are discussed in the paper. • Economics . ISR operations deliver a range of benefits including lower CapEx costs for mine development, processing plant and infrastructure. ISR enables production to start at low capital cost and then a modular increase in production, as well as very flexible production capacity. The costs of ISR for different commodities (copper, gold, nickel, scandium, rhenium, rare earth elements, yttrium, selenium, molybdenum, vanadium) are discussed, with economic parameters for uranium production from ISR and conventional provided for comparison. The CapEx, OpEx and common cut-off grades for ISR for different commodities are discussed. • Exploration , resource estimation and the development of ISR projects require a number of different approaches compared to conventional mining projects. These criteria and the necessary methodology for resource estimation for ISR projects are described in the article. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A statistical generalization of microeconomics has been made in Baaquie (2013). In Baaquie et al. (2015), the market behavior of single commodities was analyzed and it was shown that market data provides strong support for the statistical microeconomic description of commodity prices. The case of multiple commodities is studied and a parsimonious generalization of the single commodity model is made for the multiple commodities case. Market data shows that the generalization can accurately model the simultaneous correlation functions of up to four commodities. To accurately model five or more commodities, further terms have to be included in the model. This study shows that the statistical microeconomics approach is a comprehensive and complete formulation of microeconomics, and which is independent to the mainstream formulation of microeconomics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate multifractal properties of commodity time series using multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA). We find that agricultural and energy-related commodities exhibit very similar behavior, while the multifractal behavior of daily and monthly commodity series is rather different. Daily series demonstrate overall uncorrelated behavior, lower degree of multifractality and the dominance of small fluctuations. On the other hand, monthly commodity series show overall persistent behavior, higher degree of multifractality and the dominance of large fluctuations. After shuffling the series, we find that the multifractality is due to a broad probability density function for daily commodities series, while for monthly commodities series multifractality is caused by both a broad probability density function and long term correlations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The two episodes of food price surges in 2007 and 2011 followed by a drop in 2014 have been particularly challenging for developing and emerging economies’ central banks and have raised the question of how monetary authorities should react to such external relative price shocks. We investigate the optimal monetary policy that manages food price shocks. To this end, we develop a new-Keynesian small open-economy model that incorporates world food price shocks. We show that the optimal monetary policy depends on country income level. In low and medium income countries, overall consumer price targeting is optimal, while in high-income countries non-food inflation targeting is the best option. This result holds not only because food represents a significant share in total consumption in low and medium income countries, but also because of food good composition. Indeed, the poorer the country, the higher the share of purely domestic food in consumption and the more detrimental lack of attention to the evolution in food prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In light of the recently passed 2010 Dodd–Frank Act, we assess the effect of margin changes on prices, the risk-sharing between speculators and hedgers, and the price stability of 20 commodity futures markets. We find that margin increases decrease the rate at which prices change, yet they impair the risk sharing function and they decrease market liquidity in certain markets. The regulator should set margins by taking the heterogeneity of commodity futures markets into account. Certain effects of margin changes diffuse across related markets though. Our results are robust to endogenously set margins by the exchanges and to alternative ways of measuring market liquidity. Interestingly, the effect of margin changes is more pronounced in commodity futures markets than in major equity and interest rate futures markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• This paper analyzes the impact of commodity hedging on corporate risks across different industries and companies with different characteristics. • The influences of different hedging purposes on corporate risks are evaluated and compared. • The effects of commodity hedging are heterogeneous across sectors, with the utilities sector benefiting most. • Companies with smaller sizes, higher valuations, and better profitability benefit more from commodity hedging. • Commodity hedging affects stock price volatility primarily through idiosyncratic volatility. Many companies use derivative contracts to hedge their commodity natural exposure, which has been a popular risk management tool for centuries. However, the public debate on whether these derivative activities actually help companies reduce risk is ongoing. We examine this question with data from public companies in the U.S. from 2010 to 2019. Our empirical results show significant evidence that hedging commodity positions reduces stock price volatility. Furthermore, the effect is heterogeneous across sectors and companies. The utilities sector benefits the most from commodity hedging, and companies with smaller sizes, higher valuations, and better profitability benefit more from commodity hedging. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To assess how financial markets and commodities are inter-related, this paper introduces a ‘volatility surprise’ component into the asymmetric DCC with one exogenous variable (ADCCX) framework. We develop an econometric model in which returns and volatility allow to influence pairs of assets, and derive several case studies linking commodities to stocks, bonds and currencies from 1983 to 2013. The innovative feature of our model is that these volatility spillovers are modeled consistently within the correlation dynamics of the ADCCX. We find evidence that return and volatility spillovers do exist between commodity and financial markets and that in turn, their relative impact on each other is very substantial. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

I link deviations from forward-spot parity for currencies and commodities. The key is to think of the U.S. dollar as a "commodity." When commodity spot prices are too high compared to futures, arbitrageurs will short the commodity and bank dollars. When physical scarcity constrains commodity borrowing, the result is a positive convenience yield. In the currency space, it is the dollar itself that needs to be shorted, with proceeds converted spot and deposited in foreign currency. When dollars are hard to borrow, covered interest parity (CIP) deviations arise. Thus, a negative "cross-currency basis" is the U.S. dollar's positive convenience yield. • I link deviations from forward-spot parity for currencies and commodities. • In both cases, constraints on borrowing the underlying asset (either commodity or US dollar) generate a similar pattern. • A negative cross-currency basis is the U.S. dollar's positive convenience yield. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: We examine the relationship between the South African Rand and the gold price volatility using monthly data for the period 1979–2010. Our main finding is that prior to capital account liberalization the causality runs from the South African Rand to the gold price volatility but the causality runs the other way around for the post-liberalization period. This finding suggests that gold price volatility plays a key role in explaining both the excessive exchange rate volatility and current disproportionate share of speculative (short-run) inflows that South Africa has been coping with since the opening up of its capital account. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This article presents a literature review of the 81 articles accepted in the Finance Research Letters Special Issue titled "COVID-19 and the Economy". The articles are classified into five broad areas (investments and asset pricing, the macroeconomy and banking, commodities, corporate finance, and other topics). We summarize the key findings of the articles by area and highlight the influence of the articles as measured by Google Scholar citations. We conclude by presenting directions for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We introduce a simple and intuitive composite model for forecasting correlations for use in portfolio optimization. Each element of the composite model is based on a realized volatility model. To test our model, we consider an investor seeking to diversify an equity portfolio by including commodities. In a high-frequency setting, we demonstrate that significant economic gains can be achieved by basing portfolio decisions on our modeling framework. The gains depend on the quality of the chosen volatility model, and for our preferred model, they are economically significant despite the realistic constraints on short selling and portfolio turnover. • Simple composite model for forecasting correlations. • Powerful forecasts from high frequency commodity data. • Economic meaningful gains from diversification into the commodity space. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] Modeling the price/cost oscillations of commodities for feasibility studies. [•] Solve the limitations of discounted back approach for OPEXs in feasibility studies. [•] Time series analysis of commodity quotations by correlograms and autocorrelograms. [•] HDA process and fluctuations of benzene and toluene price/cost. [•] Autoregressive Distributed Lag model to identify the fluctuations of quotations. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: We use daily positions of futures market participants to identify informed traders. These data contain 8,921 unique traders. We identify between 94 and 230 traders as overnight informed and 91 as intraday informed with little overlap. Floor brokers/traders are over-represented in the overnight informed group. The intraday informed group is dominated by managed money traders/hedge funds and swap dealers, with commercial hedgers under-represented. We find that characteristics such as experience, position size, trading activity, and type of positions held offer significant predictive power for who is informed. An analysis of daily trader profits confirms that we select highly profitable traders. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: We provide evidence for a long term, positive relation between commodity prices and inflation. However, this is only detected when frequency dependency in the regression is statistically accounted for, suggesting nonlinear dynamics between the variables. We also test whether commodity prices can be used to forecast inflation. Again relying on frequency domain methods, we indeed find support for long term causality from commodities to inflation. Moreover, the information content of commodity futures prices is robust to the effects of several financial and economic variables. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Marx’s analysis of commodities and the labour theory of value is examined in light of the integrationist principle that signification is a product of communication. An interrogation of Marx’s version of the labour theory of value seems to suggest that his treatment is compatible with integrationist principles. Marx’s position appears to be exceptionally well thought through and free from the uncritical banalities, reifications and mystifications that are all too common in economic theorising. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This article describes how forms of mediation are segmented into mediatized forms through links among discursive and commodity-based practices. In obscuring these practices, the “mass media” construct obscures the characteristics of cultural forms that emerge and spread through these practices. The paper focuses on the processes through which the cultural form known as “the liberal subject” was re-scaled through mediatized practices in early modern Europe, a consideration of which clarifies the causes underlying its present day anxieties. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Diatomaceous earth (DE) deposits from regions of central and southeastern Europe were evaluated for their insecticidal efficacy against Sitophilus oryzae (L.) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), Rhyzopertha dominica (F.) (Coleoptera: Bostrychidae) and Tribolium confusum Jacquelin du Val (Coleoptera: Tenebrionidae) in comparison with the commercially available DE formulation SilicoSec. The effects of temperature, RH, grain commodity (wheat, barley, maize, rice), application method (spraying vs. dusting) were evaluated. FYROM, a DE from the Former Yugoslavian Republic of Macedonia, was the most effective of the DE deposits for grain treatment, whereas the least effective was from Greece (named Crete). However, for surface treatment, Slovenia was the most effective followed by Elassona 1 and Begora. Increase of temperature increased DE efficacy, while the reverse was noted with the increase of RH. Furthermore, the DEs were more effective in barley or wheat than in maize or rice. Neither the mined DEs nor SilicoSec were able to suppress progeny production of the tested species after previous exposure on the treated commodities. Generally, dust application of DEs was more efficacious than spraying against S. oryzae and T. confusum. However, spraying of wheat significantly reduced the bulk density (test weight) compared to dusting. For surface treatment, after 1 d of exposure, Slovenia was the most effective of the mined DEs followed by Elassona 1 and Begora, whereas after 6 d of exposure the mortality was almost complete (>99%) with all three DEs. More than 6 d of exposure were required for an effective control of T. confusum adults with the remainder of the mined DEs. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: We present an analysis of oil prices in USD and in other major currencies that diagnoses unsustainable faster-than-exponential behavior. This supports the hypothesis that the recent oil price run-up was amplified by speculative behavior of the type found during a bubble-like expansion. We also attempt to unravel the information hidden in the oil supply-demand data reported by two leading agencies, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA). We suggest that the found increasing discrepancy between the EIA and IEA figures provides a measure of the estimation errors. Rather than a clear transition to a supply restricted regime, we interpret the discrepancy between the IEA and EIA as a signature of uncertainty, and there is no better fuel than uncertainty to promote speculation! Our post-crash analysis confirms that the oil peak in July 2008 occurred within the expected 80% confidence interval predicted with data available in our pre-crash analysis. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

To address ongoing deforestation for global food commodities production, companies and governments have adopted a range of forest-focused supply chain policies. In the Brazilian Amazon, these policies take the form of market exclusion mechanisms, i.e., immediately dropping suppliers who have cleared their land after a specific cut-off date. Theory suggests that strict exclusionary policies such as these are likely to result in both negative livelihood effects and reduced effectiveness of the policy if some farmers are not able to comply. It is proposed that a more cooperative model of enforcement that uses flexible and negotiated approaches to compliance management may enable more marginal and disadvantaged farmers to achieve compliance, thereby improving both the effectiveness of supply chain policies and their equity. Through our case study of cattle in the Brazilian Amazon, we examine the degree to which a purportedly cooperative supply chain policy exhibits coercive tendencies at different tiers and the degree to which these tendencies influence effectiveness and equity outcomes of the policy. We show that, surprisingly, even cooperative models of enforcement are prone to exhibit coercive tendencies in multi-tier supply chains, leading to severe equity shortcomings. We provide recommendations and a research agenda to mitigate effectiveness-equity tradeoffs in multi-tier, forest-focused supply chain policies in the aim to improve the design, adoption, and implementation of such policies. • Tropical forests are disappearing faster than ever under pressure from commodity expansion. • Forest focused supply chain policies (FSPs) aim to disincentivize deforestation. • Market exclusion may result in negative livelihood outcome and leakage if producers are unable to comply. • More cooperative enforcement of FSPs may enable compliance and increase their effectiveness and equity. • Yet, it is prone to coercive tendencies upstream, unless specific provisions are taken. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

"Zero deforestation" commitments are pledges by companies to avoid deforestation when producing palm oil. Zero deforestation can be implemented using the High Carbon Stock Approach (HCSA), a tool that distinguishes forests from degraded land which can be developed. In highly forested countries like Gabon, zero deforestation may conflict with national economic goals involving palm oil and other agricultural commodities. We investigated perspectives of stakeholders in Gabon about zero deforestation and the HCSA using Critical Systems Heuristics, a systems thinking methodology. In 25 interviews with government, NGOs, companies, and research institutions, and two focus groups with rural communities, we identified three contrasting perspectives on forest conservation and agro-industrial development: international, national, and local. Zero deforestation represents an international perspective that marginalises issues from a national perspective. This may produce unintended consequences that undermine the legitimacy of zero deforestation, including conversion of Gabon's savannahs and disincentives for sustainable business. From a local perspective, zero deforestation is embedded in an agro-industrial vision that may marginalise value judgements concerning forests and traditional livelihoods. Gabon's National Land Use Plan could help reconcile the three perspectives but requires recognition by international standards. Adapting the HCSA to Gabon's context should also be considered to promote legitimacy. Research is required to ensure proposed institutional arrangements deliver equitable multi-stakeholder participation in land-use planning. Gabon's case shows the applicability of zero deforestation to all highly forested countries cannot be assumed. Improved international understanding of national contexts, and flexibility in applying "zero deforestation", is important for designing effective and equitable international standards for sustainable agricultural production. • International standards for sustainable palm oil require "zero deforestation" (ZD). • International ZD requirements marginalise national and local issues in Gabon. • National land use plans can reconcile competing issues in highly forested countries. • Adapting the High Carbon Stock Approach may also promote the legitimacy of ZD. • Understanding national contexts is essential for equitable sustainability standards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: A primary driver in land titling and administration improvement is facilitation of a land market. Land markets are difficult to establish and to manage. Titling on its own will not create a land market, nor will a land administration system unless it is connected with the way participants think about and organise their land. Indeed, the difficulty is compounded because very little is available to explain how a land market works, particularly to identify non-technical components essential for market success. This framework article explains land markets in terms of five evolutionary stages. The ingredients of a complex and developed land market, especially social processes and cognitive capacities, are identified. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The production growth of energy-intensive commodities in physical terms is an important component of bottom–up emission scenarios and a relevant national circumstance to be incorporated in schemes for differentiating greenhouse gas emission allowances. In this study, average future growth rates of physical production are estimated for various branches of the energy-intensive industry in a wide range of countries. To this end, historic patterns of growth were analysed on a per capita basis from the 1980s onwards. Per capita production levels of steel, cement, and refinery products tend to level off for all countries as per capita income increases. These stabilisation levels, however, differ by a factor of 10 from country to country. Petrochemical and total paper and board production per capita, on the contrary, keeps on increasing with increasing income, and per capita aluminium production shows a rather weak relationship to income. Aggregated annual growth of physical production of energy-intensive commodities in this time period amounted to 5.9% in low, 1.1% in middle, and 0.8% in high-income countries. Assuming that a country experiences declining growth rates of physical production as its income increases, these aggregated figures may be used to estimate future growth rates. Projections thus based on recent growth trends suggest that earlier estimates may be improved. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• Examination of the connectedness between each equity type and the three potential safe haven assets. • Correlations between potential safe haven assets and different equity types are time-varying • Gold, oil and Bitcoin exhibit low coherency with each stock index across considered investment horizons until the onset of the Covid pandemic. • Coherencies between gold, oil, and Bitcoin and each stock index increase in the Covid-pandemic. • Connectedness between assets is primarily driven by the higher frequency bands. This study assesses the role of gold, crude oil and cryptocurrency as a safe haven for traditional, sustainable, and Islamic investors during the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. Using Wavelet coherence analysis and spillover index methodologies in bivariate and multivariate settings, this study examines the correlation of these assets for different investment horizons. The findings suggest that gold, oil and Bitcoin exhibited low coherency with each stock index across almost all considered investment horizons until the onset of the COVID-19. Conversely, with the outbreak of the pandemic, the return spillover is more intense across financial assets, and a significant pairwise return connectedness between each equity index and hedging asset is observed. Hence, gold, oil, and Bitcoin do not exhibit safe-haven characteristics. However, by decomposing the time-varying co-movements into different investment horizons, we find that total and pairwise connectedness among the assets are primarily driven by a higher-frequency band (up to 4 days). It indicates that investors have diversification opportunities with gold, oil, and Bitcoin at longer horizons. The results are robust over different types of equity investors (traditional, sustainable, and Islamic) and various investment horizons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] Against COVID-19 risks, this paper examines the hedging performance of alternative assets including some financial assets and commodities futures for the Chinese stock market in a multi-scale setting. Dynamic conditional correlations and optimal hedge ratios of the Shanghai stock exchange with Bitcoin, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Gold, WTI, Bonds and VIX returns are estimated before and during the pandemic crisis. In the short-term, the use of wavelet decomposition shows that Bitcoin provides the best hedge to the Shanghai stock market. In the long-term, commodities dominate. Whereas WTI offers the highest hedging effectiveness, Gold ranks second by a slight margin. These results allow investors to choose the highest returns and protecting tail risk during the current sanitary crisis. Our findings suggest particularly more pronounced economic benefit of diversification including alternative financial assets while commodities futures serve as good hedge assets especially during unpredictable crisis like the current sanitary crisis relating to the covid-19. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We investigate the connectedness of commodities over a period of more than two centuries. • The sample contains prices of nine commodity classes from year 1780 to 2020. • The connectedness increases during periods of economic crises, political uncertainty, and commodity driven supply shocks. • Precious metals, soft commodities, grains and, base metals as net transmitter of spillover. This paper investigates the connectedness of nine different commodity classes over more than two centuries. The data sample includes monthly observations from the years 1780 to 2020. Our static analysis shows precious metals, soft foods, grains and, base metals as a net transmitter of spillover. The time-varying analysis shows that connectedness increases during economic crises, political uncertainty, and commodity-driven supply shocks. Our results have important implications for regulators, portfolio managers, and policymakers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Asymmetric behaviors of green bonds in response to diverse groups of commodities. • Cross-quantilogram approach is employed. • A lower lead-lag tail-dependence between green bonds and commodities. • Hedging and diversification benefit of including green bonds to commodity portfolio is revealed. The paper documents the asymmetric relationship between green bonds and commodities via the cross-quantilogram approach. Given the heterogeneity nature of individual commodities, we employ three commodity key groups, including energy, metals, and agriculture. As expected, the empirical evidence highlights the asymmetric behaviors of green bonds in response to diverse groups of commodities. Further, the hedging and diversification benefit of including green bonds to commodity portfolio is revealed. Defined by the uncorrelation or negative correlation with commodities in the periods of high volatility, we found the strongest hedging benefit of green bonds against the fluctuation of natural gas, some industrial metals, and agricultural commodities. While these underlying features are persistent in the long run, it is recommended to utilize the use of green bonds in the longer term (22 days) for higher portfolio performance rather than the short term (1 to 5 days). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This main contribution of this study is to examine the asymmetric connectedness among green bonds and commodities in time- and frequency-domain using the spillover frameworks of Diebold and Yilmaz (2014) and Baruník and Křehlík (2018). Findings reveal the evidence of asymmetric spillovers among the assets across time and different frequency cycles. While the spillover is stronger for commodities within the same class, gold and silver have the strongest connectedness with green bonds regardless of the periods. However, crude oil observes a strong connection with green bonds in the long-run. Additionally, the asymmetric spillover results show that positive returns spillover is stronger in the short-run, while negative returns spillover substantially holds in both periods but is more pronounced in the short-run. In all, this study unveils the importance of the green bonds market in serving as succor against risk in other commodity markets (except precious metals) at different time horizons. Also, under appropriate scaling up of the green bond market with viable environmental policies, it promises to attract more investors so that it continues to fulfill its goal of ensuring a green economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]