To link to full-text access for this article, visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2008.07.003 Byline: Patrick T. Brandt, Todd Sandler Keywords: Kidnappings; Skyjackings; No-concession policy; Impact multipliers; Poisson autoregressive model; Changepoint models; Reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo methods Abstract: This paper employs advanced time series methods to identify the dynamic properties of three hostage taking series. The immediate and long run multipliers of three covariates -- successful past negotiations, violent ends, and deaths -- are identified. Each hostage series responds differently to the covariates. Past concessions have the strongest impact on generating future kidnapping events, supporting the conventional wisdom to abide by a stated no-concession policy. Each hostage series has different changepoints caused by a variety of circumstances. Skyjackings and kidnappings are negatively correlated, while skyjackings and other hostage events are positively correlated. Policy recommendations are offered. Author Affiliation: School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences, GR 31, 800 W. Campbell Road, The University of Texas at Dallas, Richardson, TX 75080-3021, United States Article History: Received 16 June 2008; Revised 27 June 2008; Accepted 11 July 2008