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Sorafenib has been the standard of care for patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma and although immunotherapeutic approaches are now challenging this position, it retains an advantage in HCV-seropositive patients. We aimed to quantify the rate of tumour progression in patients receiving sorafenib and relate this figure to survival, both overall, and according to viral status. Using serial data from an international clinical trial we applied a joint model to combine survival and progression over time in order to estimate the rate of tumour growth as assessed by tumour burden and serum alpha-fetoprotein, and the impact of treatment on liver function. High tumour burden at baseline was associated with an increased risk of death. In patients still alive at the end of the study, the progression in relation to tumour burden was very low compared to those who died within the study. Overall, the change in mean tumour burden was 0.12 mm per day or an absolute growth rate of 3.6 mm/month. Median doubling time was 665 days. For those who progressed above 0.12 mm per day or the 12% rate, median survival was 234 days compared to 384 days if the rate was below 12%. Tumour growth rate and serum alpha-fetoprotein rise were significantly lower in those who were HCV seropositive as was the rate of decline in liver function. These results were replicated in 2 independent patient groups. Our analysis suggests that sorafenib treatment is associated with improved survival in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma mainly by decreasing the rate of tumour growth and liver function deterioration among patients with HCV infection. Among patients receiving sorafenib for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma the rate of tumour growth (as assessed by changes in tumour size and the biomarker alpha-fetoprotein) and the deterioration of liver function is less in those who have the hepatitis C virus, than in those who do not. [Display omitted] Among patients receiving sorafenib for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma: • The overall rate of increase in tumour burden was 12%. • Above the 12% rate median survival was 234 days, compared to 384 days if below. • High tumour burden at baseline was associated with an increased risk of death. • Tumour growth rate, AFP rises and rate of decline in liver function were lower in those who were HCV seropositive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To estimate and compare the diagnostic accuracy of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and ultrasound, for the prediction of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in unclassified arthritis (UA). MEDLINE, Embase and BIOSIS were searched from 1987 to May 2019. Studies evaluating any imaging test in participants with UA were eligible. Reference standards were RA classification criteria or methotrexate initiation. Two authors independently extracted data and assessed validity using QUADAS-2. Sensitivities and specificities were calculated for each imaging characteristic and joint area. Summary estimates with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated where possible. Nineteen studies were included; 13 evaluated MRI (n=1,143; 454 with RA) and 6 evaluated ultrasound (n=531; 205 with RA). Studies were limited by unclear recruitment procedures, inclusion of patients with RA at baseline, differential verification, lack of blinding and consensus grading. Study heterogeneity largely precluded meta-analysis, however summary sensitivity and specificity for MRI synovitis in at least one joint were 93% (95% CI 88%, 96%) and 25% (95% CI 13%, 41%) (3 studies). Specificities may be higher for other MRI characteristics but data are limited. Ultrasound results were difficult to synthesise due to different diagnostic thresholds and reference standards. The evidence for MRI or ultrasound as single tests for predicting RA in people with UA is heterogeneous and of variable methodological quality. Larger studies using consensus grading and consistently defined RA diagnosis are needed to identify whether combinations of imaging characteristics, either alone or in combination with other clinical findings, can better predict RA in this population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ultrasound (US)-based screening has been recommended for patients with an increased risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). US analysis, however, is limited in patients who are obese or have small tumors. The addition of serum level of α-fetoprotein (AFP) measurements to US analysis can increase detection of HCC. We analyzed data from patients with chronic liver disease, collected over 15 years in an HCC surveillance program, to develop a model to assess risk of HCC. We collected data from 3450 patients with chronic liver disease undergoing US surveillance in Japan from March 1998 through April 2014, and followed them up for a median of 8.83 years. We performed longitudinal discriminant analysis of serial AFP measurements (median number of observations/patient, 56; approximately every 3 months) to develop a model to determine the risk of HCC. We validated the model using data from 2 cohorts of patients with chronic liver disease in Japan (404 and 2754 patients) and 1 cohort in Scotland (1596 patients). HCC was detected in 413 patients (median tumor diameter, 1.8 cm), during a median follow-up time of 6.60 years. In the development data set, the model identified patients who developed HCC with an area under the curve of 0.78; it correctly identified 74.3% of patients who did develop HCC, and 72.9% of patients who did not. Overall, 73.1% of patients were classified correctly. The model could be used to assign patients to a high-risk group (27.5 HCCs/1000 patient-years) vs a low-risk group (4.9 HCCs/1000 patient-years). A similar performance was observed when the model was used to assess patients with cirrhosis. Analysis of the validation cohorts produced similar results. We developed and validated a model to identify patients with chronic liver disease who are at risk for HCC based on change in serum AFP level over time. The model could be used to assign patients to high-risk vs low-risk groups, and might be used to select patients for surveillance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is important to rapidly identify patients with advanced liver disease. Routine tests to assess liver function and fibrosis provide data that can be used to determine patients' prognoses. We tested the validated the ability of combined data from the ALBI and FIB-4 scoring systems to identify patients with compensated cirrhosis at highest risk for decompensation. We collected data from 145 patients with compensated cirrhosis (91% Child A cirrhosis and median MELD scores below 8) from a cohort in Nottingham, United Kingdom, followed for a median 4.59 years (development cohort). We collected baseline clinical features and recorded decompensation events. We used these data to develop a model based on liver function (assessed by the ALBI score) and extent of fibrosis (assessed by the FIB-4 index) to determine risk of decompensation. We validated the model in 2 independent external cohorts (1 in Dublin, Ireland and 1 in Menoufia, Egypt) comprising 234 patients. In the development cohort, 19.3% of the patients developed decompensated cirrhosis. Using a combination of ALBI and FIB-4 scores, we developed a model that identified patients at low vs high risk of decompensation (hazard ratio [HR] for decompensation in patients with high risk score was 7.10). When we tested the scoring system in the validation cohorts, the HR for decompensation in patients with a high-risk score was 12.54 in the Ireland cohort and 5.10 in the Egypt cohort. We developed scoring system, based on a combination of ALBI and FIB-4 scores, that identifies patients at risk for liver decompensation. We validated the scoring system in 2 independent international cohorts (Europe and the Middle East), so it appears to apply to diverse populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The popular sense of the word "cure" implies that a patient treated for a specific disease will return to have the same life expectancy as if he/she had never had the disease. In analytic terms, it translates into the concept of statistical cure which occurs when a group of patients returns to having similar mortality to a reference population. The aim of this study was to assess the probability of being cured from hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) by hepatic resection. Data from 2,523 patients undergoing resection for HCC were used to fit statistical cure models, to compare disease-free survival (DFS) after surgery to the survival expected for patients with chronic hepatitis and/or cirrhosis and the general population, matched by sex, age, race/ethnicity and year of diagnosis. The probability of resection enabling patients with HCC to achieve the same life expectancy as those with chronic hepatitis and/or cirrhosis was 26.3%. The conditional probability of achieving this result was time-dependent, requiring about 8.9 years to be accomplished with 95% certainty. Considering the general population as a reference, the cure fraction decreased to 17.1%. Uncured patients had a median DFS of 1.5 years. In multivariable analysis, patient's age and the risk of early HCC recurrence (within 2 years) were independent determinants of the chance of cure (p <0.001). The chances of being cured ranged between 36.0% for individuals at low risk of early recurrence to approximately 3.6% for those at high risk. Estimates of the chance of being cured of HCC by resection showed that cure is achievable, and its likelihood increases with the passing of recurrence-free time. The data presented herein can be used to inform decision making and to provide patients with accurate information. Data from 2,523 patients who underwent resection for hepatocellular carcinoma were used to estimate the probability that resection would enable treated patients to achieve the same life expectancy as patients with chronic hepatitis and/or cirrhosis, and the general population. Herein, the cure model suggests that in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma, resection can enable patients to achieve the same life expectancy as those with chronic liver disease in 26.3% of cases and as the general population in 17.1% of cases. • DFS in resected patients with HCC was compared to DFS in those with chronic liver disease w/o HCC, and the general population. • Resected patients with HCC could achieve the same life expectancy as those with chronic liver disease in 26.3% of cases. • Resection enables patients with HCC to achieve the same life expectancy as the general population in 17.1% of cases. • Patients resected in more recent years had higher cure probabilities, probably due to effective antiviral therapies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background & Aims GALAD and BALAD-2 are statistical models for estimating the likelihood of the presence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in individual patients with chronic liver disease and the survival of patients with HCC, respectively. Both models use objective measures, particularly the serum markers α-fetoprotein (AFP), AFP-L3, and des-γ-carboxyprothrombin. We aimed to validate these models in an international cohort of patients with HCC and assess their clinical performance. Methods We collected data on cancer diagnosis and outcomes of 6834 patients (2430 with HCC and 4404 with chronic liver disease) recruited from Germany, Japan, and Hong Kong. We also collected data from 229 patients with other hepatobiliary tract cancers (cholangiocarcinoma or pancreatic adenocarcinoma) and 92 healthy individuals (controls). For reference, the original UK cohort (on which the GALAD model initially was built and BALAD-2 was validated) was included in the analysis. We assessed the effects of tumor size and etiology on GALAD model performance, and its ability to correctly discriminate HCC from other hepatobiliary cancers. We assessed the performance of BALAD-2 in patients with different stages of HCC. Results In all cohorts, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), quantifying the ability of GALAD to discriminate patients with HCC from patients with chronic liver disease, was greater than 0.90—similar to the series on which the model originally was built (AUROC, 0.97). GALAD discriminated patients with HCC from those with other hepatobiliary cancers with an AUROC value of 0.95; values were slightly lower for patients with small unifocal HCCs, ranging from 0.85 to 0.95. Etiology and treatment of chronic viral hepatitis had no effect on the performance of this model. BALAD-2 analysis assigned patients with HCC to 4 distinct prognostic groups—overall and when patients were stratified according to disease stage. Conclusions We validated the performance of the GALAD and BALAD-2 models for the diagnosis of HCC and predicting patient survival, respectively (based on levels of the serum markers AFP, AFP-L3, and des-γ-carboxyprothrombin), in an international cohort of almost 7000 patients. These systems might be used in HCC surveillance and determination of patient prognosis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]