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During the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic (winter 2020), the northern part of Italy has been significantly affected by viral infection compared to the rest of the country leading the scientific community to hypothesize that airborne particulate matter (PM) could act as a carrier for the SARS-CoV-2. To address this controversial issue, we first verified and demonstrated the presence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA genome on PM2.5 samples, collected in the city of Bologna (Northern Italy) in winter 2021. Then, we employed classical molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to investigate the possible recognition mechanism(s) between a newly modelled PM2.5 fragment and the SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein. The potential molecular interaction highlighted by MD simulations suggests that the glycans covering the upper Spike protein regions would mediate the direct contact with the PM2.5 carbon core surface, while a cloud of organic and inorganic PM2.5 components surround the glycoprotein with a network of non-bonded interactions resulting in up to 4769 total contacts. Moreover, a binding free energy of −207.2 ± 3.9 kcal/mol was calculated for the PM-Spike interface through the MM/GBSA method, and structural analyses also suggested that PM attachment does not alter the protein conformational dynamics. Although the association between the PM and SARS-CoV-2 appears plausible, this simulation does not assess whether these established interactions are sufficiently stable to carry the virus in the atmosphere, or whether the virion retains its infectiousness after the transport. While these key aspects should be verified by further experimental analyses, for the first time, this pioneering study gains insights into the molecular interactions between PM and SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein and will support further research aiming at clarifying the possible relationship between PM abundance and the airborne diffusion of viruses.

This study presents an approach developed to derive a Delayed-Multivariate Exposure-Response Model (D-MERF) useful to assess the short-term influence of temperature on mortality, accounting also for the effect of air pollution (O3 and PM10). By using Distributed, lag non-linear models (DLNM) we explain how city-specific exposure-response functions are derived for the municipality of Rome, which is taken as an example. The steps illustrated can be replicated to other cities while the statistical model presented here can be further extended to other exposure variables. We derive the mortality relative-risk (RR) curve averaged over the period 2004–2015, which accounts for city-specific climate and pollution conditions. Key aspects of customization are as follows: This study reports the steps followed to derive a combined, multivariate exposure-response model aimed at translating climatic and air pollution effects into mortality risk. Integration of climate and air pollution parameters to derive RR values. A specific interest is devoted to the investigation of delayed effects on mortality in the presence of different exposure factors.

Heat and cold temperatures associated with exposure to poor air quality lead to increased mortality. Using a generalized linear model with Poisson regression for overdispersion, this study quantifies the natural-caused mortality burden attributable to heat/cold temperatures and PM10 and O3 air pollutants in Rome and Milan, the two most populated Italian cities. We calculate local-specific mortality relative risks (RRs) for the period 2004–2015 considering the overall population and the most vulnerable age category (≥85 years). Combining a regional climate model with a chemistry-transport model under future climate and air pollution scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5), we then project mortality to 2050. Results show that for historical mortality the burden is much larger for cold than for warm temperatures. RR peaks during wintertime in Milan and summertime in Rome, highlighting the relevance of accounting for the effects of air pollution besides that of climate, in particular PM10 for Milan and O3 for Rome. Overall, Milan reports higher RRs while, in both cities, the elderly appear more susceptible to heat/cold and air pollution events than the average population. Two counterbalancing effects shape mortality in the future: an increase associated with higher and more frequent warmer daily temperatures – especially in the case of climate inaction – and a decrease due to declining cold-mortality burden. The outcomes highlight the urgent need to adopt more stringent and integrated climate and air quality policies to reduce the temperature and air pollution combined effects on health.