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• Regularity and amplitude of solitons show a clear fortnightly cycle • Observed arrival times oscillated between 14 (spring tides) and 20 h (neap tides) • Atmospheric forcing modulates important aspects of soliton propagation Internal waves are commonly observed in oceans and lakes where high stratification exists. In the present study in the Strait of Gibraltar, we analyse internal soliton signals recorded in different locations in their eastward propagation from their release point (Camarinal Sill) to the continental slope of the northwestern Alboran Sea. Moreover, the effect of subinertial forcing on the release of solitons is also explored. The internal soliton activity was assessed from different approaches: (i) in-situ data (i.e., current and temperature measurements or High-Frequency Radar), (ii) numerical modelling, and (iii) an analytical approach. The arrival of solitons over the continental slope of the north-western Alboran Sea showed fortnightly variability in both number (occurrence) and amplitude during spring tides when compared with during neap tides. The observed arrival times of the solitons oscillated between 14 (spring tides) and 20 h (neap tides). Nevertheless, to provide a comprehensive explanation for the fluctuations in travel times, it is necessary to consider the subinertial variability driven by atmospheric forcing, which impacts both the flow in the Strait of Gibraltar and the mesoscale patterns in the Alboran Sea (e.g., the Coastal Cyclonic Gyre). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The loading of P into the Gulf of Finland has decreased markedly, but no overall trend in the concentration of P has been observed in the open Gulf, where the concentrations of both inorganic N and P still have a pronounced inter-annual variability. Our main aim was to study whether the internal processes driven by atmospheric forcing can explain the variation in the nutrient conditions in the Gulf during the period 1992–2014. We observed that the long-term salinity variation of the bottom water in the northern Baltic Proper controls that in the Gulf, and that the deep-water concentrations of oxygen and nutrients are significantly correlated between the basins. This imposes preconditions regarding how atmospheric forcing may influence deep water flows and stratification in the Gulf on a long-term scale. We found that over short timescales, winter winds in particular can control the in- and outflows of water and the vertical stratification and mixing, which to a large extent explained the inter-annual variation in the DIN and TP pools in the Gulf. We conclude that the inter-annual variation in the amounts, ratios, and spatial distribution of nutrients sets variable preconditions for the spring and potential blue-green algae blooms, and that internal processes were able to mask the effects of the P load reductions implemented across the whole Gulf. The transportation of P along the bottom from the northern Baltic Proper and its evident uplift in the Gulf highlights the fact that the nutrient reductions are also needed in the entire catchment of the Baltic Sea to improve the trophic status of the open Gulf. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global satellite sea surface temperature (SST) measurements and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis wind data for the period of 1982–2009 have been used to study the seasonal and interannual variability of the main climatic oceanic frontal zones (OFZ; subpolar, subtropical and equatorial) associated with the large-scale atmospheric forcing. The seasonal variability of the OFZ is manifested in variations of their intensity (magnitude of the meridional gradient of SST) and latitudinal position of the cores (defined as areas of maximum SST gradient). The maximum intensity of the subpolar OFZ is observed in summer of the corresponding hemisphere, while subtropical OFZ are intensified synchronously in both hemispheres during boreal winter. Subtropical OFZ cores in both hemispheres shift synchronously to the south/north during the winter/summer of the Northern hemisphere, which is caused by the seasonal meridional migration of the areas of the maximum convergence of Ekman transport. All subpolar and subtropical OFZ reveal a pronounced quasi-decadal (7–10 years) variability, manifested in the variations of their intensity and latitudinal position of the zones’ cores. Strengthening of the SST gradient is accompanied by a displacement of the zones’ cores to the north in both hemispheres for subpolar OFZ, while subtropical OFZ cores migrate to the poles in this situation. Positive correlations between the maximum magnitude of the meridional gradient of zonally averaged SST and meridional shear of zonal wind (which is an estimate of the Ekman convergence intensity) were found for all subpolar and subtropical OFZ. Variability of the latitudinal position of subpolar OFZ cores is associated with the Ekman advection variability due to zonal wind variations (strengthening of zonal wind results in a shift of subpolar OFZ cores to the south/north in the Northern/Southern hemispheres). A period of the variability of the North Pacific equatorial OFZ is 4–5 years and is determined by the variability of the ENSO system. During the El Niño events, the sharp decrease of the intensity of the equatorial OFZ take place. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Hatteras coastal ocean is centrally located along the east coast of the 48 contiguous United States, offshore of Cape Hatteras in a complex land/ocean/atmosphere region where major ocean currents of differing temperatures and salinities meet and interact, where the atmosphere fluctuates on a wide range of time scales, and where atmosphere-ocean interactions vary both spatially and temporally. The Gulf Stream current typically leaves its contact with the continental margin here. Continental shelf currents from the north and from the south converge here, resulting in a net shelf-to-ocean transport of shelf waters that carry important water properties and constituents. The two major drivers of these shelf currents and exchanges are the atmosphere and the oceanic Gulf Stream. Atmospheric driving of the Hatteras coastal ocean is through surface wind stress and heat flux across the air-sea interface. The complexity and importance of this region motivated the NSF-sponsored PEACH research program during 2017–2018 (PEACH: Processes driving Exchange At Cape Hatteras). In this paper, we utilize the substantial number of observations available during PEACH to describe the atmospheric forcing of the ocean then. Atmospheric conditions are described in terms of two seasons: the warm season (May to mid-September), with predominantly mild northeastward winds punctuated by occasional tropical cyclones (TCs); and the cool season (mid-September through April), with a nearly continuous, northeastward progression of energetic extratropical cyclones (ETCs) through the region. Cool season ETCs force the region with strong wind stress and ocean-to-atmosphere heat flux episodes, each with a time-scale of several days. Wind stress fluctuation magnitudes typically exceed mean stress magnitudes in each season by a factor of 3–5. These stresses account for just over 40% of the total current variability in the region, showing the wind to be a major driver of the ocean here. Atmosphere-ocean heat flux is typically into the ocean throughout the warm season (~100 W m-2); it is essentially always out of the ocean during the cool season (~500 W m-2 or more). New results herein include: southward intraseasonal oscillations of the jet stream's position drove the strongest ETCs (including one "bomb" cyclone); and during the 41 years leading up to and including PEACH, the season-averaged number and strength of atmospheric cyclones passing over the Hatteras coastal ocean have shown little long-term change. Looking ahead, the NSF Pioneer Array is scheduled to be relocated to the northern portion of the Hatteras coastal ocean in 2024, and the NASA SWOT satellite has begun its ocean topography mission, which has a ground-track cross-over here. • Wind stress and air-sea heat fluxes drive the Hatteras coastal ocean variability. • These forcing vary between the warm season and the cool season. • Cool season extratropical cyclones (ETCs) drive the strongest stresses and fluxes. • Newly discovered cascading events are a cool season shelf water export process. • Little change in ETC numbers & strength has been found in the past 40 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simulated inter-annual to decadal variability and trends in the North Atlantic for the 1958–2007 period from twenty global ocean – sea-ice coupled models are presented. These simulations are performed as contributions to the second phase of the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II). The study is Part II of our companion paper (Danabasoglu et al., 2014) which documented the mean states in the North Atlantic from the same models. A major focus of the present study is the representation of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability in the participating models. Relationships between AMOC variability and those of some other related variables, such as subpolar mixed layer depths, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Labrador Sea upper-ocean hydrographic properties, are also investigated. In general, AMOC variability shows three distinct stages. During the first stage that lasts until the mid- to late-1970s, AMOC is relatively steady, remaining lower than its long-term (1958–2007) mean. Thereafter, AMOC intensifies with maximum transports achieved in the mid- to late-1990s. This enhancement is then followed by a weakening trend until the end of our integration period. This sequence of low frequency AMOC variability is consistent with previous studies. Regarding strengthening of AMOC between about the mid-1970s and the mid-1990s, our results support a previously identified variability mechanism where AMOC intensification is connected to increased deep water formation in the subpolar North Atlantic, driven by NAO-related surface fluxes. The simulations tend to show general agreement in their temporal representations of, for example, AMOC, sea surface temperature (SST), and subpolar mixed layer depth variabilities. In particular, the observed variability of the North Atlantic SSTs is captured well by all models. These findings indicate that simulated variability and trends are primarily dictated by the atmospheric datasets which include the influence of ocean dynamics from nature superimposed onto anthropogenic effects. Despite these general agreements, there are many differences among the model solutions, particularly in the spatial structures of variability patterns. For example, the location of the maximum AMOC variability differs among the models between Northern and Southern Hemispheres. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cattle feeding in feedlot pens produces large amounts of manure and animal urine. Manure solutions resulting from surface runoff are composed of numerous chemical constituents whose leaching causes salinization of the soil profile. There is a relatively large number of studies on preferential flow characterization and modeling in clayed soils. However, research on water flow and solute transport derived from cattle feeding operations in fine-textured soils under naturally occurring precipitation events is less frequent. A field monitoring and modeling investigation was conducted at two plots on a fine-textured soil near a feedlot pen in Argentina to assess the potential of solute leaching into the soil profile. Soil pressure head and chloride concentration of the soil solution were used in combination with HYDRUS-1D numerical model to simulate water flow and chloride transport resorting to the concept of mobile/immobile—MIM water for solute transport. Pressure head sensors located at different depths registered a rapid response to precipitation suggesting the occurrence of preferential flow-paths for infiltrating water. Cracks and small fissures were documented at the field site where the % silt and % clay combined is around 94%. Chloride content increased with depth for various soil pressure head conditions, although a dilution process was observed as precipitation increased. The MIM approach improved numerical results at one of the tested sites where the development of cracks and macropores is likely, obtaining a more dynamic response in comparison with the advection–dispersion equation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An upwelling center has been frequently observed on the shelf break of the East China Sea (ECS) off northeastern Taiwan, where the Kuroshio encounters an abrupt shoaling topography. The region is also located under the track of Asian dust (AD) storms and frequently disturbed by typhoons. To examine the seasonal nutrient dynamics of the upwelling and the potential impacts of these episodic events, transect stations across the upwelling center were visited at intervals of 1–3 months from November 2003 to January 2005. The results of the water temperature profiles indicated that the upwelling persisted throughout the year with the most intensified events occurring in winter. Seasonally, a higher nitrate concentration was observed during the stronger upwelling period. The highest nitrate value was however observed during an AD storm, with an average value of 8.3 μM for the top 30 m. Interestingly, the N/P ratio was larger than 16 during these episodic events, and the N/P ratios were equal to or smaller than 16 during other periods. On average, the estimated values from wet deposition constituted 17.3% of the total estimated nitrogen input. This suggests that atmospheric deposition, particularly during the episodic events, might be an important external nutrient source. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Advection of anthropogenic aerosols from the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) and dust aerosols from distant deserts towards a high-altitude station Merak, in the trans-Himalayan region are reported during June–July 2011. In order to differentiate the advection event, aerosol optical properties were examined during aged background conditions at the site. During the aged background conditions, aerosol optical depth (AOD at 500 nm) and Angstrom exponent ( α ) at the station were ∼0.06 and 1.36, respectively which were increased to 0.13 and 1.62, respectively during the advection event. Further, a strong signature of fine-mode aerosol volume size distribution, dominated by absorbing aerosols, was observed during the advection event. The average atmospheric forcing during the aged background condition was found to be 0.57 Wm −2 (with corresponding heating rate of 0.05 Kday −1 ) and these results were enhanced to 2.58 Wm −2 (with corresponding heating rate of 0.22 Kday −1 ) during the advection event. The present study reveals that during the advection event, heating rate in the atmosphere was increased by about four times than the aged background condition. Such atmospheric warming in the region may influence the melting of the Himalayan glaciers and consequently it may effect the local atmospheric circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] We analyzed the surface ocean response to synoptic variability of wind and heat fluxes through numerical modeling. [•] No major changes are introduced by synoptic variability to mean fields of currents and SST. [•] Surface EKE and diffusivities are increased by synoptic wind, particularly south of 37°S. [•] Prominent role of wind-driven upwelling cycles to explain coastal SST variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Inter-annual variability of calculated barotropic (netflow) and simulated baroclinic (inflow and outflow) exchanges through the Strait of Gibraltar is analyzed and their response to the main modes of atmospheric variability is investigated. Time series of the outflow obtained by high resolution simulations and estimated from in-situ Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) current measurements are compared. The time coefficients (TC) of the leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes that describe zonal atmospheric circulation in the vicinity of the Strait (1st and 3rd of Sea-Level Pressure (SLP) and 1st of the wind) show significant covariance with the inflow and outflow. Based on these analyses, a regression model between these SLP TCs and outflow of the Mediterranean Water was developed. This regression outflow time series was compared with estimates based on current meter observations and the predictability and reconstruction of past exchange variability based on atmospheric pressure fields are discussed. The simple regression model seems to reproduce the outflow evolution fairly reasonably, with the exception of the year 2008, which is apparently anomalous without available physical explanation yet. The exchange time series show a reduced inter-annual variability (less than 1%, 2.6% and 3.1% of total 2-day variability, for netflow, inflow and outflow, respectively). From a statistical point of view no clear long-term tendencies were revealed. Anomalously high baroclinic fluxes are reported for the years of 2000–2001 that are coincident with strong impact on the Alboran Sea ecosystem. The origin of the anomalous flow is associated with a strong negative anomaly (~−9hPa) in atmospheric pressure fields settled north of Iberian Peninsula and extending over the central Atlantic, favoring an increased zonal circulation in winter 2000/2001. These low pressure fields forced intense and durable westerly winds in the Gulf of Cadiz–Alboran system. The signal of this anomaly is also seen in time coefficients of the most significant EOF modes. The predictability of the exchanges for future climate is discussed. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Highlights: [•] Phase II of the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II) is introduced. [•] Solutions from CORE-II simulations from eighteen participating models are presented. [•] Mean states in the North Atlantic with a focus on AMOC are examined. [•] The North Atlantic solutions differ substantially among the models. [•] Many factors, including parameterization choices, contribute to these differences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The dominance of shifts in the location of the Gulf Stream (GS) in the local heat balance was observed in an hourly 15-month record of unprecedented surface mooring measurements at a site in the western North Atlantic occupied from November 2005 to January 2007. Instrumentation on the buoy provided a high quality record of air-sea exchanges of momentum, heat, and freshwater flux; and oceanographic sensors recorded ocean variability in the upper 640m. The mooring was at times in the GS and at other times north of the GS. Our intent was to isolate the local oceanic response to the atmosphere from the influence of the GS shifts. A one-dimensional heat budget analysis indicated that the advective contribution from the GS shifts dwarfed the heat contribution by atmospheric forcing and therefore played the dominant role for upper oceanic thermal variability during the whole time record. A GS case study (i.e., when the surface mooring was in the GS), isolated the upper oceanic response to the atmospheric forcing in the GS and supported the critical role of GS shifts in total oceanic heat content. Through both an Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis and by referencing temperatures to that observed at 200m, the impact of GS shifts and atmospheric forcing were decomposed, allowing the local oceanic thermal response to be isolated. This local oceanic response was particularly prominent during the period of sustained heating during summer. A case study of summer conditions revealed a near surface flow consistent with Ekman dynamics within a shallow, warm ocean mixed layer. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Simulating the oceanic circulation in Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems (EBUS) is a challenging issue due to the paucity of wind stress products of a sufficiently high spatial resolution to simulate the observed upwelling dynamics. In this study, we present the results of regional simulations of the Humboldt current system (Peru and Chile coasts) to assess the value of a statistical downscaling model of surface forcing. Twin experiments that differ only from the momentum flux forcing are carried out over the 1992–2000 period that encompasses the major 1997/98 El Niño/La Niña event. It is shown that the mean biases of the oceanic circulation can be drastically reduced simply substituting the mean wind field of NCEP reanalysis by a higher resolution mean product (QuikSCAT). The statistical downscaling model improves further the simulations allowing more realistic intraseasonal and interannual coastal undercurrent variability, which is notoriously strong off Central Peru and Central Chile. Despite some limitations, our results suggest that the statistical approach may be useful to regional oceanic studies of present and future climates. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The long-term variability of the physical and biochemical structure of oxic and suboxic layers in the Black Sea was studied using a one-dimensional coupled hydrophysical and biogeochemical model. The focus was on the correlation between atmospheric forcing (2 m air temperature and dew point temperature, surface level pressure, surface wind) affected by the North Atlantic Oscillation in and the regional responses. The quality of model performance was demonstrated using observed vertical and temporal distribution of biogeochemical variables. It was shown that during 1960–2000, the long-term variability of simulated winter-mean SST in the Black Sea correlated reasonably well with the variability of 2 m air temperature. Furthermore, the thermal state of the upper ocean impacted largely on the variability of biogeochemical variables, such as oxygen, nitrate and phytoplankton concentration. The tele-connection between North Atlantic Oscillation and Black Sea biogeochemistry was manifested in a different way for the specific time-interval 1960–2000; the corresponding regime shifts were thus associated with the large scale forcing. One such extreme event occurred in 1976 leading to a pronounced shift in the oxygen and hydrogen sulfide state. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The Mediterranean basin features a semi-enclosed sea, where interactions and feedbacks between the atmosphere and the Sea at various temporal and spatial scales play a predominant role in the regional climate. This study analyzes the Mediterranean Sea response in sensitivity experiments conducted by driving the NEMO-MED12 oceanic model in perpetual mode with various atmospheric forcings, all produced by the WRF non-hydrostatic mesoscale atmospheric model, but differing by their resolutions: two horizontal resolutions (20km at basin scale and 6.7km in the North-Western [NWE] area) and two temporal resolutions (daily and three-hourly). The atmospheric fields available from August 1998 to July 1999 are in good agreement with estimates derived from satellite data. The heat budget of the Mediterranean Sea represents an heat loss of 5W/m2 and the annual freshwater budget is −1.04m, in agreement with climatologies. An increase in the spatial resolution in the NWE area modifies the modeled circulation from −10% to +15% for the SST, from −30% to +50% for the SSS, from −10% to +30% for the MLD and from −10% to +30% for the EKE in surface. The increase in the wind speed with a better chanelling by the land orography enhances in particular the oceanic convection process in the NWE area. On the other hand, the increase in the temporal resolution reduces the convection process, because of the diurnal restratification of the oceanic upper layer. It also reduces the surface parameters high-frequency variability, whereas it increases the EKE values in surface, due to the rapid response to the wind. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: We develop, calibrate and test a dataset intended to drive global ocean hindcasts simulations of the last five decades. This dataset provides surface meteorological variables needed to estimate air-sea fluxes and is built from 6-hourly surface atmospheric state variables of ERA40. We first compare the raw fields of ERA40 to the CORE.v1 dataset of , used here as a reference, and discuss our choice to use daily radiative fluxes and monthly precipitation products extracted from satellite data rather than their ERA40 counterparts. Both datasets lead to excessively high global imbalances of heat and freshwater fluxes when tested with a prescribed climatological sea surface temperature. After identifying unrealistic time discontinuities (induced by changes in the nature of assimilated observations) and obvious global and regional biases in ERA40 fields (by comparison to high quality observations), we propose a set of corrections. Tropical surface air humidity is decreased from 1979 onward, representation of Arctic surface air temperature is improved using recent observations and the wind is globally increased. These corrections lead to a significant decrease of the excessive positive global imbalance of heat. Radiation and precipitation fields are then submitted to a small adjustment (in zonal mean) that yields a near-zero global imbalance of heat and freshwater. A set of 47-year-long simulations is carried out with the coarse-resolution (2°×2°) version of the NEMO OGCM to assess the sensitivity of the model to the proposed corrections. Model results show that each of the proposed correction contributes to improve the representation of central features of the global ocean circulation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: High, small-scale SST variability (6 °C over 5–10 km) observed South of Martha''s Vineyard during the low-wind component of the Coupled Boundary Layers Air–Sea Transfer (CBLAST-Low) oceanographic field program in August 2003 is investigated using the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM), with atmospheric forcing provided by the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS®). 1 [1] COAMPS® is a registered trademark of the Naval Research Laboratory. The ocean model includes tidal boundary forcing by the eight major tidal constituents, which is superimposed on the non-tidal lateral boundary conditions obtained from the 1/8° global NCOM real-time hindcast. The simulation is conducted with a high-resolution, 200-m grid, with bathymetry from the NGDC 3-arc-second Coastal Relief Model. The COAMPS fields, tidal forcing and NCOM results are evaluated with the CBLAST-Low observations and previous results. Both the simulation and observation analyses reveal that SST variability south of Martha''s Vineyard is significant on August 18 and 25 and is strongly related to the cooling events on August 17 to 18 and August 24 to 25. The northeast winds passing through Muskeget Channel generate sharp horizontal SST gradients on August 18 by accelerating the westward transport of cold water from the cold, tidally-mixed Nantucket Shoals and by wind-induced upwelling and surface-cooling-induced vertical mixing. The mechanism of SST change on August 25 is differentiated from the change on August 18 by the northwest winds being unfavorable to the westward transport of cold water. The SST cooling on August 25 is mainly caused by local vertical mixing induced by heat lost. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The relationship between various atmospheric variables at the sea surface and climatological monthly means of sea surface temperature (SST) is investigated over the global ocean. The goal is to quantify the change in SST that results solely from variations in a particular atmospheric variable. This is accomplished using a series of numerical simulations from an atmospherically-forced ocean general circulation model (OGCM). It is first demonstrated that SST variations at all latitudes are generally strongly and positively correlated with increases in near-surface air temperature, and vapor mixing ratio and net shortwave radiation at the sea surface, while they are often moderately and negatively correlated with increases in near-surface wind speed. There is only a weak and negative relationship between variations in SST and those in net longwave radiation at the sea surface. Variations in the net shortwave radiation and vapor mixing ratio are found to have more influence in driving the seasonal cycle of SST than other atmospheric variables. Global averages of slope values from the least squares fit indicate that a 1°C change in air temperature results in ≈0.2°C change in SST. Similarly, a 1gkg−1 change in vapor mixing ratio gives ≈0.4°C change in SST, and 10Wm−2 change in shortwave (longwave) radiation results in ≈0.13°C (≈0.07°C) change in SST. All these values vary regionally, and are neither constant nor in the same direction everywhere. In addition, some atmospheric variables are already correlated to each other. Therefore, a fractional factorial design which involves the joint effects of all atmospheric variables on SST at the same time is further applied. Results from the factorial design are somewhat consistent with the simple linear regression analysis, in that a 2°C increase in air temperature can typically give an increase in SST, generally ranging between 0.5 and 0.8°C over the global ocean. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: There are two ways of external forcing of the lower ionosphere, the region below an altitude of about 100km: (1) From above, which is directly or indirectly of solar origin. (2) From below, which is directly or indirectly of atmospheric origin. The external forcing of solar origin consists of two general factors – solar ionizing radiation variability and space weather. The solar ionization variability consist mainly from the 11-year solar cycle, the 27-day solar rotation and solar flares, strong flares being very important phenomenon in the daytime lower ionosphere due to the enormous increase of the solar X-ray flux resulting in temporal terminating of MF and partly LF and HF radio wave propagation due to heavy absorption of radio waves. Monitoring of the sudden ionospheric disturbances (SIDs – effects of solar flares in the lower ionosphere) served in the past as an important tool of monitoring the solar activity and its impacts on the ionosphere. Space weather effects on the lower ionosphere consist of many different but often inter-related phenomena, which govern the lower ionosphere variability at high latitudes, particularly at night. The most important space weather phenomenon for the lower ionosphere is strong geomagnetic storms, which affect substantially both the high- and mid-latitude lower ionosphere. As for forcing from below, it is caused mainly by waves in the neutral atmosphere, i.e. planetary, tidal, gravity and infrasonic waves. The most important and most studied waves are planetary and gravity waves. Another channel of the troposphere coupling to the lower ionosphere is through lightning-related processes leading to sprites, blue jets etc. and their ionospheric counterparts. These phenomena occur on very short time scales. The external forcing of the lower ionosphere has observationally been studied using predominantly ground-based methods exploiting in various ways the radio wave propagation, and by sporadic rocket soundings. All the above phenomena are briefly mentioned and some of them are treated in more detail. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (COREs) are presented as a tool to explore the behaviour of global ocean-ice models under forcing from a common atmospheric dataset. We highlight issues arising when designing coupled global ocean and sea ice experiments, such as difficulties formulating a consistent forcing methodology and experimental protocol. Particular focus is given to the hydrological forcing, the details of which are key to realizing simulations with stable meridional overturning circulations. The atmospheric forcing from [Large, W., Yeager, S., 2004. Diurnal to decadal global forcing for ocean and sea-ice models: the data sets and flux climatologies. NCAR Technical Note: NCAR/TN-460+STR. CGD Division of the National Center for Atmospheric Research] was developed for coupled-ocean and sea ice models. We found it to be suitable for our purposes, even though its evaluation originally focussed more on the ocean than on the sea-ice. Simulations with this atmospheric forcing are presented from seven global ocean-ice models using the CORE-I design (repeating annual cycle of atmospheric forcing for 500 years). These simulations test the hypothesis that global ocean-ice models run under the same atmospheric state produce qualitatively similar simulations. The validity of this hypothesis is shown to depend on the chosen diagnostic. The CORE simulations provide feedback to the fidelity of the atmospheric forcing and model configuration, with identification of biases promoting avenues for forcing dataset and/or model development. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Bulk heat flux parameterization is an increasingly popular technique for forcing non-coupled ocean models. If sea surface temperature (SST) from the model is colder (warmer) than observed, then the net heat flux will be higher (lower) than observed; thus, bulk parameterizations tend to keep model SST close to observational SST on long time scales. However, bulk parameterizations imply neither strong damping of SST variability nor strong relaxation to near-surface (e.g., at 10 m) air temperature (T a). This is demonstrated using SST simulations from a 0.72°×0.72° cos(lat) (longitude×latitude) resolution global HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) that does not include assimilation of any SST data or explicit relaxation to any SST climatology, but does use bulk heat fluxes. Results are discussed when climatological wind and thermal atmospheric forcing for HYCOM are constructed from three different archived numerical weather prediction (NWP) products: (1) the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 15-year Re-Analysis during 1979–1993 (ERA-15), (2) ECMWF 40-year Re-Analysis (ERA-40) during 1979–2002, and (3) the Common Ocean Reference Experiment Corrected Normal Year forcing version 1.0 (CORE-CNY) based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) re-analysis which spans 1948–2002. To investigate the implications of the bulk heat flux approach as relaxation to SST and T a, HYCOM SST simulations are used to demonstrate that model SST errors with respect to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) SST climatology do not look like T a −SST fields from NWP products. Such a result is confirmed for all simulations forced with ERA-15, ERA-40 and CORE-CNY, separately. Overall, global averages of mean HYCOM SST error are 0.2 °C (1.5 °C), 0.4 °C (1.7 °C) and 0.6 °C (2.3 °C) with respect to NOAA SST (NWP T a) climatology when the model uses atmospheric forcing from ERA-15, ERA-40 and CORE-CNY, respectively. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Ocean circulation influences nearly all aspects of the marine ecosystem. This study describes the water circulation patterns on time scales from hours to years across Torres Strait and adjacent gulfs and seas, including the north of the Great Barrier Reef. The tridimensional circulation model incorporated realistic atmospheric and oceanographic forcing, including winds, waves, tides, and large-scale regional circulation taken from global model outputs. Simulations covered a hindcast period of 8 years (i.e. 01/03/1997–31/12/2004), allowing the tidal, seasonal, and interannual flow characteristics to be investigated. Results indicated that the most energetic current patterns in Torres Strait were strongly dominated by the barotropic tide and its spring-neap cycle. However, longer-term flow through the strait was mainly controlled by prevailing winds. A dominant westward drift developed in summer over the southeasterly trade winds season, which then weakened and reversed in winter over the northwesterly monsoon winds season. The seasonal flow through Torres Strait was strongly connected to the circulation in the north of the Great Barrier Reef, but showed little connectivity with the coastal circulation in the Gulf of Papua. Interannual variability in Torres Strait was highest during the monsoon period, reflecting variability in wind forcing including the timing of the monsoon. The characteristics of the circulation were also discussed in relation to fine sediment transport. Turbidity level in Torres Strait is expected to peak at the end of the monsoon, while it is likely to be at a low at the end of the trade season, eventually leading to a critically low bottom light level which constitutes a severe risk of seagrass dieback. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The surface salinity response to changes of various external forcings and model parameters is investigated in a regional 1/3° configuration of the NEMO-OPA model implemented over the eastern North-Atlantic subtropical Ocean. Fourteen realistic climatological simulations are run. By default, neither relaxation to climatological surface salinity nor temperature is included. Forcing fields and parameters expected to impact the surface salinity are modified. These include: the wind stress, the surface temperature, wind speed and relative humidity entering the bulk calculation for sensible and latent heat fluxes, the precipitation, the data specified at open boundaries, the lateral viscosity operator, the salt lateral diffusivity, the vertical mixing scheme, the on/off switch of the double diffusion parameterization, the river runoffs and the SSS/SST restoring terms. The SSS standard deviation over this ensemble of model simulations is of the order of 0.1psu, which is also the order of the annual cycle of the surface salinity field in this area. In this experimental framework, the wind stress is found to have the largest impact on the model SSS, both in terms of mean field and annual variability. The sensitivity to the precipitation, atmospheric temperature, open boundary external data, and to the relaxation to climatological SSS and SST, is also significant. Of all the model parameterizations, the lateral salt diffusivity is the one associated to the strongest surface salinity model response. This work allows the identification of the main sources of error for model surface salinity. It paves the way for a more comprehensive investigation of SSS model error statistics, which is needed for future data assimilation experiments motivated by the close launch of the new SSS-observing SMOS and Aquarius satellite missions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: A nearshore wave, tide and current prediction system was demonstrated during the MREA04 Trial in the Portuguese coastal waters near Pinheiro da Cruz during the early spring of 2004. Daily forecasts of regional scale wave and tidal information and nearshore waves and currents were generated in DIOPS utilizing a suite of regional and nearshore models forced with data from meteorological and oceanographic production centers. A limited beach experiment was conducted with three Nortek current meters deployed in the surf zone and a video imagery system to generate 10-min time exposures used to identify the locations of wave breaking. In this study, Delft3D, a coastal hydrodynamic modeling system, capable of simulating hydrodynamic processes due to waves, tides, rivers, winds and coastal currents, is used to predict the nearshore wave and longshore currents near Pinheiro da Cruz. The nearshore bathymetry used in this study was based on LIDAR data collected in February 2000. Delft3D shows mixed results when compared with the measured wave height and nearshore currents. Improved Delft3D results can be achieved in the future if migrating sand bars can be measured and included in the modeling. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: A comparative analysis was conducted on climate variability in four sub-arctic seas: the Sea of Okhotsk, the Bering Sea shelf, the Labrador Sea, and the Barents Sea. Based on data from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, the focus was on air–sea interactions, which influence ice cover, ocean currents, mixing, and stratification on sub-seasonal to decadal time scales. The seasonal cycles of the area-weighted averages of sea-level pressure (SLP), surface air temperature (SAT) and heat fluxes show remarkable similarity among the four sub-arctic seas. With respect to variation in climate, all four seas experience changes of comparable magnitude on interannual to interdecadal time scales, but with different timing. Since 2000 warm SAT anomalies were found during most of the year in three of the four sub-arctic seas, with the exception of the Sea of Okhotsk. A seesaw (out of phase) pattern in winter SAT anomalies between the Labrador and the Barents Sea in the Atlantic sector is observed during the past 50 years before 2000; a similar type of co-variability between the Sea of Okhotsk and the Bering Sea shelf in the Pacific is only evident since 1970s. Recent positive anomalies of net heat flux are more prominent in winter and spring in the Pacific sectors, and in summer in the Atlantic sectors. There is a reduced magnitude in wind mixing in the Sea of Okhotsk since 1980, in the Barents Sea since 2000, and in early spring/late winter in the Bering Sea shelf since 1995. Reduced sea-ice areas are seen over three out of four (except the Sea of Okhotsk) sub-arctic seas in recent decades, particularly after 2000 based on combined in situ and satellite observations (HadISST). This analysis provides context for the pan-regional synthesis of the linkages between climate and marine ecosystems. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Satellite, in situ and reanalysis data for the period of 1950–2005 were used to study the long-term variability of sea surface temperature (SST) in the Black Sea and its connection with the major large-scale atmospheric forcing (air temperature, surface wind and North Atlantic Oscillation — NAO). In contrast to the quasi-regular decadal oscillations of the SST typical for the Northern Atlantic, the pattern of long-term SST variability in the Black Sea is better described as an intermittent periods of SST increase/decrees with the duration of approximately 6–10 years and short (1–2 years) and quite abrupt transitions between them. Confirmed is a known fact of existence of the two major surface wind regimes over the Black Sea i.e., Southern–Western (SW) and Northern–Eastern (NE) and new details on the correlations between the zonal and meridional wind components in each regime are added. A new important finding is that the switch between two regimes occurs quite abruptly at values of NAO index slightly less then zero. It was shown that in weak to moderate positive NAO situation the SW wind regime prevail and wind components are well correlated with the NAO index. The long-term variability of winter-mean SST in the Black Sea is reasonably well correlated with the variability of surface air temperature (SAT), which in turn is highly correlated with the meridional component of surface wind. It is shown that strengthening/weakening of the Southern wind or weakening/strengthening of the Northern wind cause SAT and SST increase/decrease. Finally, a conceptual diagram of NAO impact on the meridional component of the surface wind, SAT and SST is presented. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The spatial and temporal evolution of the beta-emitting, anthropogenic radionuclide Technetium-99 (99Tc) in the North and Norwegian Seas have been simulated with a regional isopycnic Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM), forced with realistic, daily averaged atmospheric forcing fields for the period 1975 to 2003. The main source of this soluble radionuclide is the reprocessing plants at Sellafield in the Irish Sea and La Hague on the French coast in the English Channel. The radioactive contaminants follow the general ocean circulation in the area, and are eventually transported northwards along the Norwegian coast heading towards the Arctic Ocean. Comparison with observational time series from two stations along the coast of Norway shows that the model fairly realistically captures both the amplitude and the temporal trend of 99Tc from Sellafield and La Hague. To isolate the effect of changes in the ocean circulation and mixing on the released tracers, idealized tracers with a clock attribution are included for both sources. These idealized tracers measure the age along the pathways of the tracers from the two sources. The age from the Sellafield-derived tracer at the island Hillesøy on the northern coast of Norway is found to be in the range 5–8 years, which is slightly older than previous estimates of the related concept of transit time. A complex pattern of variability is identified, with local and regional atmospheric forcing influencing both the northward tracer flux and the time elapsed since the tracer left the source. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Within the framework of several local and international programs, a quasi-operational ocean-forecasting system for the Southeastern Mediterranean Sea has been established and evaluated through a series of preoperational tests. The Princeton Ocean Model (POM) is used for simulating and predicting the hydrodynamics while the Wave Model (WAM) is used for predicting surface waves. Both models were set up to allow varying resolution and multiple nesting. In addition, POM was set up to be easily relocatable to allow rapid deployment of the model for any region of interest within the Mediterranean Sea. A common requirement for both models is the need for atmospheric forcing. Both models require time varying wind or wind stress. In addition, the hydrodynamic model requires initial conditions as well as time dependent surface heat fluxes, fresh water flux, and lateral boundary conditions at the open boundaries. Several sources of atmospheric forcing have been assessed based on their availability and their impact on the quality of the ocean models'' forecasts. The various sources include operational forecast centers, other research centers, as well as running an in-house regional atmospheric model. For surface waves, higher spatial and temporal resolution of the winds plays a central role in improving the forecasts in terms of significant wave height and the timing of various high wave events. For the hydrodynamics, using the predicted wind stress and heat fluxes directly from an atmospheric model can potentially produce short range ocean forecasts that are nearly as good as hindcasts forced with gridded atmospheric analyses. Finally, a high-resolution, nested version of the model has shown to be stable under a variety of forcing conditions and time scales, thus indicating the robustness of the selected nesting strategy. For the southeastern corner of the Mediterranean, at forecast lead times of up to 4 days the high-resolution model shows improved skill over the coarser resolution driving model when compared to satellite derived sea surface temperatures. Most of the error appears to be due to the analysis error inherent in the initial conditions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The seasonal cycles of some atmospheric parameters at Cochin (southwest coast of India) have been studied with a specific emphasis on the role played by them in forcing the seasonal sea level. Equatorward along-shore wind stress as well as equatorward volume transport by coastal currents along the Indian peninsula could play an important role in the sea level low during the premonsoon and southwest monsoon seasons. During postmonsoon season, along-shore wind stress plays no major role in the high sea level whereas this could be due to the poleward volume transport by the coastal along-shore currents. Atmospheric pressure and river discharge do not seem to influence much the sea level during the southwest monsoon period, even though the river discharge during that period is considerable. The sea level was minimal during the southwest monsoon season, when the river discharge was at its annual maximum. The difference between the seasonal march of observed and pressure corrected sea level (CSL) was not significant for the study region. Harmonic analysis of the climatological data on the various parameters revealed that air temperature is the only parameter with a dominance of the semi-annual over the annual cycle. Cross-shore wind stress indicated strong interannual variability whereas relative density showed strong seasonal variability. The climatological seasonal cycles of CSL at eight other tide gauge stations along the west coast of the Indian subcontinent are also examined, to assess the role of various forcings on the seasonal sea level cycle. The signatures of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon could be seen in some of the parameters (SST, air temperature, atmospheric pressure, along-shore wind stress, relative density and sea level). The signature of ENSO was particularly strong in the case of atmospheric pressure followed by relative density, the variance accounted by the relationship being 47% and 16%, respectively. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The response of the Antarctic circumpolar circulation to wind stress variability is studied in a simple model of the Southern Ocean. The model consists of a zonally reentrant channel with mid-ocean barrier, forced by surface heat flux and stochastic wind stress. The MITgcm code is used to solve for temperature, sea level, and the velocity field.The channel transport responds actively to the stochastic wind forcing through the excitation of several eigenmodes. The fundamental basin mode is excited, which has a period of about 20 days. However, the response is dominated by a topographic mode with a period of 3 days. This barotropic mode is related primarily to topographic Rossby waves propagating on the submarine sill, and Kelvin waves propagating westward on the southern boundary. The mode shares characteristics with numerical predictions of normal modes in the Southern Ocean, as well as with recently observed modes of variability around Antarctica, with periods between 1 and 2 days. These results show that both topographic normal modes and Rossby basin modes can play a role in the adjustment of the ACC to high-frequency wind stress variability.The presence of the resonance in the system leads to interesting phase behavior between the wind stress forcing and the ocean transport: for a considerable frequency range, the transport seems to lead the wind stress variability. This shows that the classical notion of transport passively lagging wind forcing is inadequate when eigenmodes are excited. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The present study of temporal and spatial variations of shore-fast ice in the Kara Sea includes utilization of aircraft observations by the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (AARI) from 1953 to 1990, and surface brightness temperature from SSM/I from 1987 to 2001. Analyses of a time series of spatially distributed SSM/I brightness temperatures provide estimates of the shore-fast ice extent. The present work shows spatial distributions of frequencies of shore-fast ice coverage in the Kara Sea for each month, and it gives a time series of its area. The fast ice extent in early spring typically reaches a stable configuration, which falls into one of two different categories (modes) with significantly different area. The smaller of these two modes tends to appear with increased frequency since 1980. This gives, for this period, a negative trend in fast ice area during spring. There is a correlation above 0.5 between the average winter temperature and maximum ice thickness anomalies and fast ice area. Analysis of surface wind data and sea level pressure indicates that wind during winter controls much of the shore-fast ice development. Specially strong westerly and southwesterly winds tend to give a smaller fast ice extent than otherwise. Variations in river discharge tend only to have an observable effect on the ice at the river mouths. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Mean temporal circulation at Ormen Lange (OL) off mid-Norway is strongly dominated by the Norwegian Atlantic Current. Tidal effects are weak. Observed events of short peak value in current speed along with peak in temperature close to the seabed at the shelf slope may be driven by strong pressure gradients. That is, strong atmospheric low pressures and/or internal pressure fronts between warmer Atlantic Water (AW) and colder Norwegian Sea Water (NSW). Along the shelf slope at OL there may be steepening of the isopycnals, separating AW and NSW, due to wind generated downwelling and strong Ekman veering during storms or approaching internal density fronts. During such events the density surfaces tend to undershoot their equilibrium level, and as the forcing weakens, the suppressed water may run up along the shelf slope. In this run up phase, peak values in the velocities are often found.Since the atmospheric forcing may be a major forcing mechanism behind the observed events, we have performed a numerical study of the sensitivity of near bottom velocities at OL to the pathway of low pressure disturbances and the strength and the radii of them.The results indicate how depth dependent currents at different locations respond to varying atmospheric forcing, with highest currents close to the surface, time delay of response at greater depths and highest impact of storms passing further out in the Nordic Seas than immediately over OL. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

We examine the upper ocean thermohaline structure in the southeast Indian Ocean and its temporal variability based on XBT/XCTD observations from four cruises across the Southern Ocean from Fremantle, Australia to Prydz Bay, Antarctica. The transects were occupied in March 1998, November 1998, March 2000 and March 2002. Three major fronts—the subtropical front, subantarctic front and polar front—are clearly identified from our surveys and compared with earlier studies. Particularly, two polar fronts, separated by a few degrees of latitude, appear southeast the Kerguelen Plateau. The primary polar front is characterized by a strong horizontal thermal gradient extending deep in the water column, while the secondary polar front is identified by the 2°C isotherm at Tmin depth and has a relatively shallow frontal expression. Dynamic height across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) was calculated for the transects in 2000 and 2002. With a negligible yearly variation in the total transport across the ACC, the higher sample density in 2002 reveals more detailed structure of the ACC: two jets associated with the SAF and primary polar front are embedded within the broad ACC.We find a strong temporal variation in the upper ocean thermal structure in the polar ocean southeast the Kerguelen Plateau. The depths of the mixed layer and Tmin layer increase over time. The mixed layer temperature decreases while the Tmin temperature increases during the same period. In addition, we see an increase from 1998 to 2002 in the length of the ice-free period prior to each XBT/XCTD sampling and surface wind forcing, calculated as the friction velocity cubed during the ice-free period. Our analysis suggests that the longer the ocean is exposed to the atmosphere and the stronger the wind stirring, the more enhanced is the turbulent mixing. This results in a greater mixed layer depth and more entrainment of colder water from the Tmin layer to the mixed layer. This surface forcing also enhances internal diffusive processes that mix the Tmin water with the warmer waters above and below the Tmin layer. The surface forcing is apparently dominant in determining the upper ocean thermal structure in this polar region. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In this study, we compare two 1-D mixing parameterizations developed by Gaspar et al. [J. Geophys. Res. C95 (C9) (1990) 16179] (G90) and Large et al. [Rev. Geophys. 32 (1994) 363] (L94), respectively. Both models are tested against drifting Marisonde bouys deployed in the Bay of Biscay during PRECOCE experiment (1997–1998) [Mariette, V., Ratsivalaka, C., Verbe´que V., Leborgne, E., 1999. CAMPAGNE PREOCOCE (PREdiction du comportement des Couches superficielles de l'Oce´an le long des Coˆtes Europe´ennes, Tomes 1, 2 and 3, Rapport EPSHOM/CMO/RE/NP 11 du 31 mai 1999]. Periods of stabilizing and destabilizing conditions are successively examined by using both realistic and schematic dynamical and thermodynamical air–sea fluxes. Schematic conditions applied over one diurnal cycle evidence the relative performance of G90 and L94 parameterizations as a function of surface inputs and stratification. The results obtained from these schematic cases are used to compare the results obtained by G90 and L94 over periods of 2 to 10 weeks along three Marisonde buoy trajectories. The ability of both models to simulate the seasonal thermocline formation in Spring as well as its destruction in Fall is discussed. If the nonlocal parameterization used by L94 is taken in its complete form (including the diapycnal mixing), it allows the mixed-layer deepening in Fall in a more satisfactory way than the local parameterization used by G90. The results obtained in Spring by both models are debatable. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This project examines the role of local atmospheric forcing during the transition from relatively cold wintertime to relatively warmer springtime temperatures in the northern Middle Atlantic Bight (MAB) region during 1965–1973. A one-dimensional water column model is run for eight consecutive winter seasons with local surface heat flux used as the only external forcing. Historical data from the Nantucket Light Ship, along with modeled radiation estimates for New York and Boston are used for the heat flux calculations. Two model simulations were made for each winter season, allowing for both a qualitative and quantitative comparison of model output with observed regional temperature variability and with observed temperature changes measured at Nantucket Lightship (NLS). Interannual variability (IAV) in local atmospheric heat flux during wintertime is shown to be a dominant factor in determining springtime temperature conditions during the study period. However, the residuals from a regression analysis suggest that advective processes may have contributed to the observed temperature variability, although it is believed that the advective influence is secondary to local surface heat flux in the northern MAB for this study period. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

We examine the first in situ velocity data collected on the shelf of Southern Brazil. The mooring station with two current meters was deployed at 32°41′S, 51°27′W on March 4, 1997, and recovered on August 2, 1997. Also analyzed are wind data for the same period obtained at a nearby coastal meteorological station. The observed velocity series can be interpreted as a sum of highly variable flow correlated with local wind stress and a “residual” mean current flowing northward along the shore at a few centimetres per second. In winter, the currents observed in the bulk of the water column exhibited a dramatic decrease in magnitude, as compared to the remainder of the series, although there was no similar decay of winds. We hypothesize that this is due to the impact of very stable salinity controlled winter stratification in a narrow subsurface layer because of enhanced river discharges that effectively isolates the deeper layers from atmospheric forcing. The frequency band corresponding to the periods from 2 to 10 days, presumably associated with meteorological forcing, dominated the velocity spectrum. The tidal currents were weak and predominantly diurnal. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

TELEMAC-2D, a two-dimensional depth-averaged finite element flow model, has been chosen for modelling the hydrodynamics of the Patos Lagoon during the 1998 El Nin˜o event. The model is initially calibrated against measurements carried out between 20 and 29/10/98, and good agreement is achieved between measured and predicted longitudinal velocities. Model validation is carried out by comparing measurements and predictions for one reference station in the estuarine area for the period between 23/05 and 06/06/98. Results indicate an excellent agreement between measurements and predictions, and the model is considered calibrated and validated for the Patos Lagoon hydrodynamics.A study of the Patos Lagoon hydrodynamics under the El Nin˜o extreme conditions shows that the local and non-local wind effects associated with the freshwater discharge at the top of the lagoon promote longitudinal and lateral set-up/set-down mechanisms that influence the circulation. Results indicate that velocities in the lagoon and estuary during the extreme conditions observed in the El Nin˜o period are much stronger than the normal periods.The response of the Patos Lagoon entrance to the local and non-local forcing is studied for the first time in terms of the inflow and outflow of water in the system. Results indicate that during the 1998 El Nin˜o event the non-local forcing dominated, promoting exchanges that represent around 7% of the lagoon initial volume in the simulation. Strong freshwater discharges at the top of the lagoon combined with pressure gradients due to changes in elevation generated by the local and non-local wind favours the predominant seawards flow at the mouth, with outflows in the order of 5000 m3 s−1. The strong outflow observed during the El Nin˜o extreme flow conditions generates huge plumes of freshwater into the adjacent coastal area. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The structure of the wind-induced exchange between Indian River Bay, Delaware and the adjacent continental shelf is examined based on current measurements made at the Indian River Inlet which represents the only conduit of exchange between the bay and the coastal ocean. Local wind measurements and sea levels from stations located along the open coast and in the interior of the bay are also obtained. Coastal sea level fluctuations are coherent with winds over periodicities of 2–10 days, with the highest response corresponding to winds aligned along two bands, one broadly centered around the general orientation of the Middle Atlantic Bight coastline between New Jersey and Virginia (040°T), and the other narrowly focused on the direction perpendicular to the local coastline (090°T). Currents in the inlet are also highly coherent with the wind along these two directions, but the high coherence is limited to time scales between 2 and 5 days. Within those time scales the currents in the inlet show largely depth-independent fluctuations which are highly coherent and in quadrature phase with the coastal sea level fluctuations, indicating that the subtidal exchanges in those time scales are principally accomplished by the remote wind effects on the shelf through the impingement of coastal sea level fluctuations at the entrance to the inlet. This coastal pumping effect produces unidirectional inflow throughout the water column under coastal set-up conditions, and outflow occurs under coastal set-down conditions. There is indication that a weaker, but still significant mode of bi-directional exchange also exists in the inlet, with currents in the upper layer fluctuating in opposite directions relative to those in the lower layer. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The interannual variability of the Mediterranean (MED) circulation from 1979 to 1993 is studied with a 1°/8×1°/8×1°/8 resolution OGCM. The surface forcing used is 6 hourly ECMWF (European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast) reanalysis data. Two different periods in the surface forcing and model variability are identified during 1981–1993: the first, Period I (1981–1987) and the second, Period II (1988–1993). Changes in the model response between the two periods are driven by corresponding differences in the surface forcing, which presumably are a result of the decadal scale changes of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) atmospheric regimes, related to the intensification of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) at the end of the 1980s.During the second period (1988–1993), the Mediterranean circulation reveals an overall weakening of the kinetic energy in the Western Mediterranean (WMED) basin and significant changes in the structure of circulation in the Eastern basin. In the latter region, the anticyclonic activity increases in the southern Ionian and in the southern area of the mid-Mediterranean Jet. These anticyclonic eddies, present during different years of Period II with variable intensity, have an important impact on the transport of Modified Atlantic Waters (MAW) and Levantine Intermediate Waters (LIW) in the Eastern Mediterranean (EMED). This change of the circulation modified the salinity and the amount of Levantine Intermediate Waters transported towards the Aegean Sea and the Adriatic Sea, which are important factors for deep water formation processes there. These model results are in good agreement with available observational results. The deep water formation event observed in the Aegean Sea [Science 271 (1996) 333] is produced by the model, but at a shallower depth. We interpret this event as the result of circulation changes between Period I and Period II and anomalous surface atmospheric forcing over the Aegean Sea. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Climate change and increased coastal urbanization are causing low-lying coastlines to become increasingly susceptible to the threat of extreme water levels and coastal flooding. Robust decision-making on adaptation in the coastal zone, based on reliable ocean-modelling tools, is therefore crucially contingent on accurate assessments of current and future storm surge hazards. This accuracy relies considerably on the quality of the wind forcing used in the ocean models. In this paper, we use a high-resolution, regional 3D ocean model (HBM) covering the North Sea and Baltic Sea to simulate extreme water levels during three extreme storm surge events with different dynamics and patterns, in order to assess their impacts along Denmark's coastlines, which are of varying levels of complexity. We demonstrate that the model is able to reproduce the observed extreme high-water levels accurately, indicating that the system is well suited for producing simulations of present and future projections of extreme storm surges with high resulting impacts and damage potentials. Additionally, we quantify the level at which acknowledged deficiencies in the otherwise most suitable atmospheric forcing data set influence the results of the storm surge simulations. We found that reducing the temporal resolution of the forcing data – that is, replacing two out of every six time stamps with linearly interpolated values – is preferable to using the original forcing data set when recurring noise is present in these time stamps. As a result, for given storm surge events, and depending on the stage reached in the storm's evolution, mean absolute errors can be reduced by 4.5 cm. This emphasizes the importance of considering such model fluctuations when coupling high-resolution atmosphere and ocean models. [Display omitted] • 3D ocean model HBM skillfully reproduces extreme water levels along Danish coastlines. • Performance improves when two out of every six forcing time stamps are removed. • Slightly reduced temporal resolution tops higher resolution but noisy data. • Based on these results, we find the HBM model validated for future projection runs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The SWAN (Simulating Waves Nearshore) wave model using wind inputs generated by the ALADIN 8-km, operational high-resolution, atmospheric model was run in real-time to provide surface waves forecast for the semi-enclosed Adriatic Sea in support of the “Dynamics of the Adriatic in Real-Time” (DART) field experiments. Together with predictions from other wave and wind models, the successful prediction of a high sea-state event by this model led to a real-time shifting of planned operations while at sea, allowing five ADCP moorings to be deployed just before a bora storm and associated storm waves arrived. The model was also able to simulate the spatial gradients in significant wave height observed by in-situ and remote-sensing measurements for a particular sirocco storm case study, providing an additional perspective in aiding interpretation of the model output of features. To further quantify prediction skill, the wave forecast performance over a 12-month period was evaluated against in-situ and altimeter measurements over the region. Correlation coefficients between forecast and in-situ measured significant wave heights were from 0.82 to 0.91 for the 24-h forecast and from 0.78 to 0.88 for the 48-h forecast. However, best-fit slope comparisons with in-situ wave data at five coastal locations show the forecast wave heights were underpredicted by 10% to 30%. Best-fit slope comparisons between modeled wind speeds, U 10, and significant wave heights, H s, and altimeter-derived measurements show that model U 10 was about 4% underpredicted, but H s was underpredicted by an average of 30%. The underprediction of SWAN H s has a very significant location-dependent geographical variation ranging from 10% to over 50%. In addition, the wave model comparison with altimeter H s shows a broad region of scatter index exceeding 0.4 along and offshore of the central Croatian coast. Elsewhere the scatter index is generally around 0.3. Compared to previous studies we found that using higher-resolution wind forcing with realistic orography decreased the U 10 underestimation bias, but the magnitude of H s underestimation bias did not correspondingly decrease, suggesting that wave model dynamics or wind–wave coupling deserves further investigation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: A pool of less saline surface waters was observed in late June 2006 at the northern edge of the South Adriatic Pit (SAP). Three possible sources were considered: (1) Albanian rivers, (2) local Croatian rivers, or (3) relatively fresh West Adriatic Current (WAC) waters. Available CTD and ADCP data, together with satellite images indicate that WAC waters are the most likely source. This requires an excursion of WAC water across the width of the Adriatic and is especially surprising as low winds and stable atmospheric conditions prevailed in mid/late June. However, quite strong NNW winds occurred during the first 12 days of June, with peak winds close to the western shore. These winds were the result of the translation of the Azorean high to the British Isles, producing strong pressure gradients over the Adriatic. The winds enhanced the WAC during early June 2006, preconditioning a cross-basin eddy circulation that appeared during the wind relaxation and calm conditions. As the unusually calm conditions persisted for more than two weeks, the WAC eddies and filaments grew freely and had enough time to reach middle east Adriatic waters. Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM) simulations, using high-resolution Adriatic bathymetry and realistic atmospheric forcing show that such excursions are plausible and can occur when eddies and instabilities push WAC waters across the hyperbolic flow point separating the WAC and Eastern Adriatic Currents near the Palagruža Sill. During the latter half of June 2006, NCOM simulations show that the hyperbolic point was particularly well formed as an anticyclonic WAC, a cyclonic SAP rim flow, an anticyclonic cell southeast of Lastovo Island, and a cyclonic cell over the centre of the Palagruža Sill all bordered on each other. A simplified channel model suggests that the presence of the escarpment is a critical factor for producing cross-basin exchange of the coastal current following the relaxation of strong winds with a cyclonic wind-stress curl. However, the introduction of the Gargano Peninsula in the simulations was critical to the production of mesoscale eddies in the exchange flow, and such eddies qualitatively agree with the convoluted structures observed in satellite images. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]