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This publication examines the history of Project Orion and NERVA nuclear engine program within the Integrated Program Plan, the technical reasons for their study, their progress, and the political reasons for their cancellation. Whether pulsed or thermal, nuclear propulsion offers the best compromise in efficiency and thrust for the propulsion of future manned missions. Project Orion was born in the mind of Stanislaw Ulam, an atomic physicist who had worked on the Manhattan project. Despite theoretical performances superior to anything conceivable even with current technologies, and despite the mobilisation of some of the most brilliant physicists of the time (Freeman Dyson), the project was killed by the Treaty banning nuclear weapon tests in the atmosphere, in outer space and under water (Moscow, 5 August 1963). The Integrated Program Plan was Wernher von Braun's proposal to the Space Task Group (STG), chaired by Vice President Spiro Agnew, for the continuation of the Apollo program. This plan envisaged a lunar base in the 1970s, and a first manned mission to Mars in the early 1980s. All of this would have been powered by nuclear-powered orbital shuttles, using NERVA, a nuclear engine tested and operational since 1968. Here again, even though it performed better than anything else in the world, even today, the project failed politically. This retrospective publication therefore aims to answer the following question: How can nuclear space programs of today and tomorrow be protected from the uncertainties of this influence? The study of propulsion systems is very often left to engineers, and political and public relations issues to politicians. However, every technology is the result of a political system, and has a strategic impact, which is a subject for social and political sciences. That's why this paper adopts an original approach crossing social sciences through the historical study of decision-making dynamics, and engineering through the study of the technical characteristics of the projects involved. This publication is based on declassified technical reports, testimonies of the personalities of the time, and a document from the archives of the John F. Kennedy Presidential Library. History can be the academic bridge between political and technical studies. In a context of resurgence of nuclear propulsion projects throughout the world, such an approach is now necessary both at the historical level and in terms of political decisions making. Indeed, space programs involving nuclear energy are, by nature, at the crossroads of public relations issues very specific to both space and atomic subjects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many communities are unprepared for climate change, yet action stagnate. Adaptation requires governance actors to perceive climate change as a risk and action within their responsibility. However, little is understood on how subjective actor perceptions influence adaptation governance. Individual actors, within the political, public and professional spheres, often shape decision making to echo their informal social institutions. This study theorizes on why climate change adaptation is frequently overlooked, investigating how misguided perceptions of risk and responsibility impact governance and the role denial and discretion plays in this process. To glean insight into how subjective perceptions result in adaptation barriers, the experiences of senior management (n = 14) across four regional districts in Canada is explored. On-site observation and strategic document review provided a general understanding of how regional planning and policies integrate adaptation, while thematic analysis of semi-structured interviews reveals the importance of considering actor perceptions of risk and responsibility in adaptation planning. Here, findings suggest that denial and discretion function as a governance process, hindering decision making on adaptation as political leadership avoids responsibility and the public copes with powerlessness. While navigating climate discourse, actors employ denial and discretion to mitigate ideological conflicts stemming from polarized perceptions of human agency to affect the natural world. To facilitate preparedness for climate change, this research provides insight into the human barriers preventing planning for adaptation. [Display omitted] • Legislative discretion impedes effective adaptation policy. • Political actor risk perception influences policy. • Defensive discretion shifts responsibility between actors. • Implicatory denial and institutional trust placate public actor concern. • Polarized perceptions of human agency limit collective climate action. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Migration is not an event, but an interactive process whereby individuals on the move make decisions in their social and political contexts. As such, one expects migrant mental health to change over time. To examine this relationship, we conducted a meta-analysis, the first to our knowledge, to identify the impact of migration phase and migration type on the prevalence of mental health in migrant populations. We searched PubMed, PsycInfo, and Embase for studies published between January 1, 2010, and January 1, 2020 (Prospero ID: 192751). We included studies with international migrants reporting prevalence rates for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depression, and/or anxiety. The authors extracted data from eligible studies and tabulated mental health prevalence rates, relevant migration condition (e.g., migration type or phase), and methods (e.g., sample size). Full text review resulted in n = 269 manuscripts included in the meta-analysis examining PTSD (n = 149), depression (n = 218), and anxiety (n = 104). Overall prevalence was estimated for PTSD (30.54 %, I2 = 98.94 %, Q = 10,443.6), depression (28.57 %, I2 = 99.17 %, Q = 13,844.34), and anxiety (25.30 %, I2 = 99.2 %, Q = 10,416.20). We also estimated the effect of methodological and migration factors on prevalence in PTSD, depression, and anxiety. Our findings reveal increased prevalence of mental health due to forced migration and being in the journey phase of migration, even when accounting for the influence of methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The international endeavour to prevent climate change requires action from all parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Many least developed countries (LDCs) have prepared nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to implement the Paris Agreement despite economic challenges; however, their level of commitment varies. Understanding the factors that underpin the variation in commitment among low-income countries would facilitate effective agreements and enhance global implementation. The study aimed to determine the degree to which 36 LDCs implemented the Paris Agreement in their NDCs, and the factors that determined the degree. We applied the Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD) framework and the Institutional Grammar Tool (IGT) developed by Elinor Ostrom and her colleagues to enable systematic assessments of institutions. To identify the determinants of the degree of implementation, national contexts, decision-making, and patterns of interaction were investigated for five case countries. The countries appeared to focus on international determinants, rather than on national political decision making. Therefore, encouraging countries to communicate changes in national institutional and economic arrangements required for effective climate change mitigation is imperative. Countries that consider the importance of structural changes and institutional strengthening, such as education and political and legislative instruments, are likely to implement the Paris Agreement to a high degree. A fair, inclusive procedure; the consequent legitimate burden; and the required criteria with synergy between mitigation and development provide the most effective mitigation. Applying the operationalised framework can benefit improvements in international climate agreements and local institutions. • Policies are challenged by lack of data, illiteracy and governance arrangements. • LDCs did not communicate how to improve institutions to facilitate mitigation. • Required criteria with synergy between mitigation and development more effective. • A fair, inclusive procedure and a legitimate burden needed for commitment. • The operationalized IAD aids to improve climate governance in LDCs and globally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Public works in general play an important role because of their expressive value and considerable social relevance. In this respect, it is necessary to establish criteria/indicators for defining the hierarchy of works that must be conducted by a public entity, mainly for works considered ordinary, that is, those that do not stand out from a set of alternatives by degree of emergency or importance. Specifically, the hierarchization of engineering works to be carried out by the Public Administration in Brazil usually adopts the political approach to decision making without the application of rational technical criteria. Therefore, the aim of this article is to present a methodology to define the hierarchy of engineering works with the judiciary branch of power through the creation of technical criteria/indicators, followed by the application of the Fuzzy-Delphi technique to define the indices/weights that comprise the indicators. The technical criteria were created based on Resolution 114 of the country's National Council of Justice (Conselho Nacional de Justiça ; CNJ), whose weights were obtained through the aforementioned method, which was applied to a panel of experts, in two stages, with the adoption of triangular fuzzy numbers. The results, which were clear and objective, provide the General Hierarchization Index (GHI), with the ordering/ranking of the works included in the process. The methodology was validated in a case study applied to 162 alternatives (districts), containing 192 buildings of the Court of Justice of Paraná State (Tribunal de Justiça do Paraná ; TJPR), proving to be an important tool to support decision making. The optimization of resources through the determination of priorities converges to the sustainable hiring applied to public contracts. Institutions of the other Powers of the Republic could and should also be encouraged by public authorities to conduct technical studies similar to the proposal presented here, always clarifying the need for a clear and objective definition of the criteria and weights to be applied in the development of solutions for multicriteria decision making. • Public administration usually adopts the political approach to decision making. • It is necessary to establish indicators for defining the hierarchy of public works. • Fuzzy-Delphi technique is applied to define the indicators' indices. • A General Hierarchization Index ranking the public works. • The methodology was validated in a case study applied to 162 districts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The exposure of residents to large volumes of uraniferous mine waste deposits scattered across densely populated areas in the South African goldfields has long been identified as a potential health threat. To quantify this threat for selected locations numerous studies determined concentration levels of uranium and other radionuclides in different environmental media of the Witwatersrand basin including streams, soils, tailings deposits, mine water effluents, fluvial sediments, aquatic organisms as well as in the food chain (fish, cattle, crops, vegetables etc.). This paper describes how the secondary data were extracted from various sources in order to map the spatial extent and intensity of uranium pollution in selected goldfields and to quantify associated exposure of residents. Steps included geo-referencing, normalisation against selected benchmark values, and superimposition of complementary data sets in GIS. For easing access to the data base for non-GIS experts a virtual geographic environment (VGE) was used, offering updated satellite imagery and additional functionality that aided in modelling exposure of target populations. Exposure pathways considered here include ingestion of polluted water, food and soil (geophagia) as well as the inhalation of wind-blown tailings dust. In addition, anecdotal evidence and media-based reports on mining-related pollution and impacts were captured. Maps derived from the VGE were used to identify hot spots of radioactive pollution aiding the selection of suitable sampling sites for a screening survey on U-uptake by exposed residents using hair as a bio-indicator. • Thousands of point data on radioactive contamination were compiled in one of the largest databases of its kind in SA • Displaying georeferenced and normalised data revealed distinct spatial patterns and hot spots of U and Ra pollution • Linking pollution sources to settlements via a range of pathways allowed assessing the potential exposure of residents • Easy to operate the system facilitates public participation and provides scientific support for political decision making • By adding data as they become available the system is continuously expanded and maintained current [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

People often speculate about why others make the choices they do. This paper investigates how such inferences are formed as a function of what is chosen. Specifically, when observers encounter someone else's choice (e.g., of political candidate), they use the chosen option's attribute values (e.g., a candidate's specific stance on a policy issue) to infer the importance of that attribute (e.g., the policy issue) to the decision-maker. Consequently, when a chosen option has an attribute whose value is extreme (e.g., an extreme policy stance), observers infer-sometimes incorrectly-that this attribute disproportionately motivated the decision-maker's choice. Seven studies demonstrate how observers use an attribute's value to infer its weight-the value-weight heuristic-and identify the role of perceived diagnosticity: more extreme attribute values give observers the subjective sense that they know more about a decision-maker's preferences, and in turn, increase the attribute's perceived importance. The paper explores how this heuristic can produce erroneous inferences and influence broader beliefs about decision-makers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract This paper complements existing Smart City taxonomies with a case study of concrete cross-boundary collaboration between actors from diverse disciplines and institutions. The paper explores technical, social and organizational aspects of indoor climate in public buildings in Copenhagen, and outlines a digital platform (skoleklima.dk / climify.org) for the visualization and evaluation of locally produced data. The platform is to improve temporarily challenging situations 'right-in-time', help to solve continuous problematic conditions in the buildings and provide a scientific data infrastructure for better political decision-making. Furthermore, the paper suggests that research in active public organizations ('living labs') unfolds in erratic and dynamic trajectories, and in order to attain comprehensive understanding and reach innovative solutions, involved actors need to explore and intertwine diverse technical, social, political and organizational circumstances. With an empirically outset, the paper thus opens for new contextual driven understandings of cross-boundary collaboration in Smart City development. Highlights • A platform for buildings' data visualization improve energy use and indoor comfort. • Social/technical science collaboration leads to tools for smart buildings control. • Empirical urban 'living labs' generate new knowledge on smart city development. • Scientific work in 'living labs' meets 'reactive interventions' from involved stakeholder. • Involving building users is a key for increasing acceptance of smart cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) has been proposed as an alternative to GDP as an indicator of national progress. GPI includes 26 components that adjust GDP for inequality, include household and volunteer work, and subtract a number of social and environmental costs best seen as negatives. The GPI has been estimated for over 20 countries and many states and territories. This paper updates Australia's GPI to determine whether Australia as a nation has progressed overall since the 1960s and compares two alternative approaches that differ in some important details. We find that despite these differing approaches, we find that GPI remained largely stagnant from the 1960s through to the 1990s, and only at the turn of the century has GPI started to increase, despite increasing negative environmental costs. While GPI is well placed to serve as an improved Australian and global measure of national progress, further work is needed to measure national well-being and support its integration into political decision-making and to include the full range of subjective and objective indicators. Ultimately, this paper argues that while GPI is well placed to serve as a new Australian and global measure of well-being, we stress the need for an alternative indicator, like GPI, to supplement GDP and to better inform policy decisions. Highlights • GPI remained stagnant from the 1960's well into the 1990's, and has only recently seen an increase in its growth rate. • The gap between GPI and GDP remains considerably large, the result of negative environmental and social costs that GDP does not include. • Alternative indicators can inform political decision-making as government resources become more constrained • Consistent standardization of GPI can integrate well-being into political decision-making and provide a supplement to GDP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract In planning literature, there are ample examples of well-documented cases of plan-making and formal decision-making, and an equally substantial amount of literature devoted to implementation. However, limited case analyses exist from the perspective of political decision-making, currently perceived as "a black box to planners" (Albrechts, 2003: 250). The City of Cape Town (CoCT), South Africa, have employed an urban edge as a growth management instrument in its Spatial Development Framework (CTSDF) since 2001 (City of Cape Town, 2009), however, the latest CTSDF (2017) retracted this instrument. Instead, the latest spatial strategy to manage growth centres on encouraging dense development that supports transit-oriented development in the urban core, whilst discouraging peripheral expansion by stating intent not to extend services towards the urban periphery in the short-term. This paper contributes to inquiry that tests the implementation of planning instruments in post-colonial urban settings (Fekade, 2000; Barredo and Demicheli, 2003; and Kombe, 2005) by firstly, evaluating the physical extent of urban sprawl in the CoCT and secondly, by analysing the decision-making process that resulted in two large-scale amendments to the original urban edge, and ultimately the final termination of the urban edge policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The distribution of transportation benefits is mediated through planning professionals and elected officials, who frame the goals of these investments and can prioritize the importance of fairness in decision-making. Despite increasing evidence of the importance of transportation equity, there are broad questions about how equity principles factor into planning processes. This work provides an empirical analysis of the role of transit equity in planning for BRT investments in three Canadian metropolitan areas. Our findings show that transit equity rarely figured into the design and planning of BRT systems and there is a lack of clarity in both defining equity and determining how it should be integrated in planning processes. Most definitions of transit equity focused on the equal distribution of resources for all groups, rather than consideration of transit-dependent riders. Equity outcomes were also in conflict with other goals, as BRT systems were viewed largely as a tool for encouraging development and focused on attracting car drivers to transit. This paper argues that there needs to be a better understanding of the values and priorities of those involved in professional and political decision-making processes if transit equity goals are to be realized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Political and economic decisions have led to more drastic changes of aquatic ecosystems, than those caused by hydrological extremes (drought, floods). Examples of this are two transformations of the Sivash Bay (Sea of Azov); a review and analyses of them are given in the paper. Sivash Bay was a hypersaline lagoon before 1963. The North Crimean Canal was built to improve water supply to the Crimean peninsula by using the waters of the Dnieper River. After the initiation of Dnieper water via the North Crimean Canal and the subsequent development of irrigated agriculture, runoff waters from the fields began draining into Bay Sivash. The salinity began to drop. Pre 1997 the average salinity in Sivash Bay was 140 g L −1 ; in 1997 it had dropped to 17 g L −1 . A fundamentally new brackish water ecosystem gradually formed in Sivash Bay. In April 2014, Ukraine made a political decision to stop supplying Dnieper water via the North Crimean Canal. Discharge of fresh water to the bay almost ceased. Salinity began to increase, and a new transformation of the Sivash ecosystem started. Six complex expeditions were conducted in the Sivash region; their results are described and analyzed in the article. The salinity of the lagoon has now risen to 55–75 g L −1 , and drastic changes have occurred in the plankton, benthos, and aquatic vegetation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Impact assessment (IA) is carried out as an ex ante process to inform decision-making. It includes requirements for engagement with stakeholders (including the public) regarding actions proposed by a proponent. A key issue with the various stakeholders involved is the perceived legitimacy of the IA, which can have implications both for the reputation of the proponent, and the likelihood of conflict over the decision. But the understanding of legitimacy in the IA literature has changed over time in line with an ontological shift from positivism (that scientifically generated information leads to better informed decisions) to the post-positivist acknowledgement of the limitations of scientific method whereby assumptions must be subject to transparency, deliberation and openness. This has led to an epistemological shift towards greater subjectivism which, we suggest, has created new opportunities (which have been realised in political decision-making) to subvert knowledge through the increased use of the Internet and social media. To address the potential for such subversion of legitimacy, we seek to conceptualise legitimacy in the IA context through framing IA around a critical realist ontology and a reliabilist virtue epistemology. This allows us to identify ‘knowledge legitimacy’ as an equally important component of IA legitimacy along with organisational legitimacy. We conceptualise knowledge legitimacy through literature review drawing on rich understandings of knowledge from IA and other fields of research in order to develop a four-dimensional typology. This includes the dimensions of: knowledge accuracy; knowledge restriction; knowledge diffusion; and knowledge spectrum. This is the first theoretically grounded attempt to understand legitimacy in IA. It is hoped that it will provoke discussion in the IA community to further advance theoretical understandings of IA and legitimacy of practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the development of renewable energy remains prominent on the global policy agenda, international organizations and states have created policies intended to foster renewable energy development. With wind power projected to make the largest contribution to Europe’s renewable energy mix, the EU and EU member-states have attempted to create institutional frameworks favoring the development of wind power. In many cases, however, this has proven to be a necessary, but insufficient, condition for wind power development, making wind power policy an interesting case of policy implementation. Because of the inherently local nature of wind power development, the influence of local actors and institutions on the policy process must also be considered. This article suggests how a proposed theoretical development in the Advocacy Coalition Framework can be used to explain how concerns exogenous to local policy subsystems can affect local political decision-making and policy implementation. This approach is then used to examine the case of wind power development in Markbygden, Sweden and finds partial support for the effect of exogenous concerns on local political decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After a long-term decline in the frequency and lethality of famines, 2017 has witnessed resurgent international concern over the issue. This paper examines the trends in famine over the last 150 years, with particular attention to the fusion of famine with forcible mass starvation. It identifies four main historic periods of famines, namely: the zenith of European colonialism; the extended World War; post-colonial totalitarianism; and post-Cold War humanitarian emergencies; and asks whether we may be entering a fifth period in which famines return in new guises. The paper explores structural causes of famine vulnerability, the overlapping but distinct causes of food crises and excess mortality in those crises, and the proximate triggers of famine. While noting that almost all famines have multiple causes, with no individual factor either necessary or sufficient, the paper focuses on the growing significance of political decision and military tactics in creating famine. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article outlines the principles of a new conservative internationalism for the Trump era, and discusses how well the administration's actions and words fit this paradigm. In order for Republicans and conservatives to reclaim their reputation as the party of strong national defense and competent foreign policy, current and future policymakers need to blend some traditional principles of conservative internationalist foreign policy with new adaptations required by challenging international security developments on the one hand, and changes in the domestic political views of right-leaning American voters on the other. A year into the Trump administration, there are some signs that the administration is indeed attempting to adjust slightly rather than replace the traditional principles of conservative Republican foreign policy, and therefore the “America First” grand strategy framework might become much more traditional in its actual policy decisions than in some of its rhetoric. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Volatility is a widely used term in political science, but even the most widely used measure of volatility, Pedersen's index, can mask as much as it reveals. His simple and elegant calculation has become part of the political science toolbox, but scholars employing this tool have tended to produce distinctly different results thanks to a series of decisions about measurement and classification. Using examples from Central Europe the critical role of decisions related to party continuity and threshold of inclusion are identified. The article not only unpacks the underlying questions addressed by different uses of Pedersen's index, but offers standards for choosing particular methods over others and outlines steps that should be followed in creating a more accurate measure of volatility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rational choice model of voting has been criticized for the fact that citizens expecting greater costs than the benefits associated with voting still turn out. This article focuses on the function of partisanship by which the effect of the rational calculation on voting is moderated. Previous studies have only tested the effect of partisanship on turnout additively failing to explore its interactions with the costs and benefits of voting. My multilevel analyses using the CSES data show that partisanship significantly moderates the effects of the information costs and intrinsic benefits of voting on turnout. These results, however, are not found in the postcommunist new democracies with unstable party systems hindering partisanship from serving as a political cue and from providing an expressive satisfaction of voting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Public leaders are expected to provide information on a crisis situation and present a plan to restore a state of normalcy. This study, based on interviews with Dutch mayors who were personally involved in crises between 1979 and 2014, assesses the various roles of public leaders’ meaning making. A total of 94 case studies were analyzed for this purpose. Responsibility and collective impact turn out to be closely intertwined phenomena, which influence the modus operandi as a public leader as perceived by the mayors themselves. The Public Meaning Making Model presented, shows four distinctive roles based on the meaning making by Dutch mayors: the roles of ‘mourner-in-chief’, ‘orchestrator’, ‘advocate’ and ‘buddy’. All of these roles emphasize different elements that depend on the collective, emotional impact of a situation as well as on the political responsibility attributed to the public leader. This article discusses the characteristics and implications of each of the four roles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article joins literature on urban geopolitics and on affective atmospheres to trace the intensities of feeling that propagate during escalation and de-escalation of urban conflict in Beirut. Based on two months of fieldwork in 2010 in the Lebanese capital, it considers the deadly clashes of May 2008 between government- and opposition-affiliated militias. Political decisions and deliberate interventions involving the urban built environment before and after the clashes, contributed to propagating affective atmospheres of (de)escalation, which in turn impacted on the residents’ practical and emotional responses to violence. The paper proposes an atmospheric urban geopolitics that moves away from techno-centric, disembodied approaches to urban conflict, and that instead takes seriously the lived experiences of urban (de)escalation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The water-energy-food nexus has achieved considerable prominence across academic research and policy sectors. The nexus sets an imperative for integrated management and policymaking, centring on the potential trade-offs and complementarities between interdependent water, energy and food systems. Applications of the nexus focus largely on technical or managerial solutions and calls to acknowledge the political dimension of nexus interdependencies have implications for governance at the urban scale. This paper aims to ‘urbanise' the nexus agenda and consider the implications of policy integration for urban governance. This examines the nexus in the context of current approaches to urban governance and power relations shaping the provision of water, energy and food in urban areas. Urban infrastructure networks underpin these resource systems and related management systems, although their management tends to operate in silos, with little joint decision-making and planning. Three hypotheses about the interplay between integrative policy framings and urban governance are explored to reconcile integrative policy framings at the urban scale: the appropriation of the nexus narrative by urban governments; re-establishment of political power through integrated management, and implementation of the nexus through smart city approaches. These hypotheses progress the political dimension of the nexus debate and reflect on the role of urban governance in addressing global challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drawing on spatial models of political competition, this research investigates whether decision weights vary across groups of voters defined by their policy positioning in a two-dimensional space. Our analyses of electoral survey data from England, France, Germany, the Netherlands and Switzerland reveal that the economic and cultural dimensions of electoral competition are salient for the vote choice of most groups of voters. However, those voters who hold economically right and culturally libertarian preferences weigh their preferences on the economic dimension more and discount parties’ position on cultural issues when no party represents their configuration of preferences. Consequently, left parties are less able to attain votes of economically right but culturally libertarian voters for cultural policy reasons, when electoral choices are scarce, while right parties are successful in attaining votes based on both dimensions. As a result, significant representation gaps can occur. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Traditionally, models of macro-political change, like those of macro-economics, have been based on extremely unrealistic assumptions about human cognition, ranging from fully informed and rational to completely random. Following from the work of Herbert Simon and contemporaries, a new tradition has developed based on more realistic ideas of human cognition. This paper lays out the need for such models in understanding endogenously produced disjointed change in public policies. It documents the commonality of such changes at the macro-level and points to the contributions of many recent works in developing realistic models of human cognition providing the basis of a new and more fruitful literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Like all human actors, politicians possess limited cognitive capacity. In ordinary interactions, this limitation discourages political decision-makers from addressing high-dimensional policy problems unless incentivized to do so by exogenous “focusing events.” Public policy researchers have documented this pattern extensively, and have argued that cognitive constraints help explain the “stick–slip” dynamics that characterize macro-level policymaking. However, data and measurement limitations have prevented these studies from examining individual-level information processing patterns. In this paper, I develop a text-based approach designed to measure diversity of attention at an individual level, which I apply to an original dataset of Congressional hearing transcripts surrounding the 2008–2009 Financial Crisis. I find that individual speakers engaged with a more diverse set of topics during the crisis than before its onset, and became more focused as the crisis subsided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Between 2003 and 2013, sugarcane area expanded six-fold, from 142,000 ha to 847,000 ha, in Goiás State and the Federal District, Brazil. And while there has been much research on land-use dynamics of sugarcane expansion in established sugarcane growing regions, little is known about the dynamics associated with its expansion in sugarcane frontiers like Goiás. Understanding these dynamics provides critical information for environmental, economic, and political decisions. Here, we investigate the agricultural land-use change dynamics associated with sugarcane production in Goiás and interrogate the relationship between biophysical, institutional, and logistical factors associated with sugarcane expansion. Our results demonstrate that pasture is seven times more likely to be converted to sugarcane than soy, and most new sugarcane area was not sourced in native Cerrado vegetation. Although there exist few biophysical limitations to sugarcane expansion, capital, infrastructure, and institutions constrain production. Lastly, we show that areas where soy is currently cultivated may be converted to sugarcane in the future given the expansion of transportation and sugarcane infrastructure. Thus, we suggest incentivizing the cultivation of sugarcane on degraded pastures and supporting increased pasture stocking rates to ensure continued protection of both natural vegetation and food production while supporting the expansion of sugarcane in the state. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study provides a new angle on the relationship between political decisions and exchange rates. We link a conventional exchange rate modeling approach to the literature on the political economy of exchange rates and studies dealing with the role of policy announcements for financial market expectations by addressing the impact of policy uncertainty on exchange rate expectations and forecast errors of professionals. Our results show that expectations are not only affected by announcements but also by the degree of uncertainty regarding the future stance of economic policy. We find that forecast errors are strongly affected by policy uncertainty compared to expectations, suggesting that the effect of uncertainty is not efficiently accounted for in market expectations. Our main findings hold for economic policy uncertainty, fiscal policy uncertainty and monetary policy uncertainty. In addition, the estimates for the Japanese yen suggest a safe haven role of the yen since higher policy uncertainty in the US results in an expected appreciation of the yen. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Donald Trump's unexpected victory in the 2016 U.S. presidential election will bring to the Oval Office a person with no past political experience. Having run on a foreign policy platform that, at times, challenged the established bipartisan orthodoxy in Washington, he must also deal with a Congress which, although nominally dominated by his own political party, is more likely to wish to exercise a close check on the new administration. Given the chill between the Republican party's foreign policy establishment and the President-elect and with the proviso that the new Chief Executive will need to get Senatorial confirmation for his nominees to the top echelons of the executive branch departments, it raises the possibility that the new team will continue with trends already noticeable in the last three presidential administrations: to shift the focal point of decision-making away from the national security bureaucracy and the Cabinet in favor of the “palace” of advisors and White House staff surrounding the president. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper argues that the failure to implement sustainable policies is not merely due to the fact that successful political leaders lack systems intelligence or foresight but that their ambitions – one of which is their motivation to politically survive – strongly influence their judgements. On the one hand, it is undeniably crucial to understand how leaders acquire and process information and how their systems thinking perspectives guide their cognitive procedures when turning pieces of information into policy interventions. On the other hand, it is also important to highlight that leaders are embedded both in institutional and political contexts that also deeply affect their political decisions and practices. Based on selectorate theory this paper suggests that in addition to these effects, under the current rules of politics, political leaders' main motivation is to increase the chances of their own political survival drawing upon their systemic understanding. By analysing how this motivation affects environmental policy-making, this paper would like to contribute to research that searches for new avenues in thinking about more sustainable political leadership. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine spatial planning (MSP) is an approach that has become essential in order to meet coastal states’ commitments to coordinated management between all stakeholders involved, whether the main objective is for economic, recreational or conservation purposes. The lessons learned from MSP over the last decade revealed the importance of applying multidisciplinary approaches to expand and deepen the involvement of stakeholders from economic and political decision-making spheres, as well as considering social and cultural dimensions. As part of the MSP process in the western tropical Pacific region, a participatory and prospective method was undertaken (the territory game). The method is based on the collective construction of spatial representations by a pool of relevant stakeholders. Both, the spatial outputs, as well as the discussions leading to them, were analysed to evaluate the stakeholders’ current and future visions of the territory. During the methodological pathway, visions developed ranging from a local scale to areas that covered all oceanic compartments, as well as some even considering the entire region. Local and intangible knowledge and opinions were taken into consideration, and helped to create a comprehensive understanding of the context. In the course of the project, participants proposed socio-ecological management solutions with innovative spatial scales. Furthering this effort, the proposals were shaped to the action capacity of the states concerned; in addition, certain Pacific countries were identified as potential leaders for steering some of the proposed actions. This approach can help to promote local actors’ involvement in MSP by a collective analysis as well as to strengthen integration of cultural and social aspects. The whole process is based on biophysical and geopolitical scientific information to improve the credibility of the results. The suggested actions could thus be implemented by each state and the Western Pacific region. Though the integration of the results into high-level decision making was not tested yet, the presented approach would allow an increased acceptance of suggested directions and actions by taking into account the different spatial visions of the relevant actors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given voters' limited cognitive abilities, the learning environments voters face may have implications for how voters learn and make decisions. One prominent feature of American elections is the variation in the length of the ballot across jurisdictions and elections. This paper explores the consequences of lengthy ballots on the ability of voters to learn about candidates. Using an experimental design and a dynamic information board (Lau and Redlawsk, 2006), subjects participate in a mock election where they are asked to gather information about a single election or multiple elections. The results indicate that while voters compare more information as ballot length increases, they spend significantly less time learning about individual pieces of candidate information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The trend amongst many parties toward the inclusion of rank-and-file members in the leadership selection process has often been attributed to opposition status and electoral defeat. However, these explanations are typical events for parties and hardly seem sufficient for party elites to willingly cede their authority over the selection of party leaders. This paper proposes that the electoral regionalization of the party contributes to the decision to expand the leadership selectorate. In the event a party is defeated to an extent in which their support is reduced to its regional base, this situation necessitates the bringing in of new voices to avoid further marginalization. This paper finds that regionalization plays a significant role in the decision of parties to expand leadership selectorates and that the role of opposition status and electoral setbacks have been overstated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While most of the literature on information shortcuts in open-list PR systems focuses on the importance of ballot position effects, the influence of a candidate’s localness has widely been ignored by existing studies. In this paper, I address this research gap and argue that voting patterns in open-list PR systems are more versatile than existing research would suggest. By analyzing a special characteristic of the open-list PR system employed in the parliamentary elections of Hamburg, it is shown that a large portion of voters chooses to vote for local candidates irrespective of the ballot position of the candidate. The paper further controls for factors conditioning the effect and finds that it remains strong even after taking them into consideration. The results have important implications for the representativeness of open-list PR systems, ballot paper design, as well as for our understanding of voters’ decision making process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Public affairs (PA) practitioners play an important role in political decision-making in modern democratic societies. This study gives a first insight in how these practitioners themselves perceive their role. Based on findings from previous empirical studies and normative democratic theories, three ideal type role conceptions are constructed: shared ways in which PA practitioners see and make normative sense of their profession. Next, these role conceptions are investigated with an online survey among 100 public affairs practitioners in The Netherlands. Findings confirm that the proposed advocate , expert and mediator roles indeed represent different ways in which PA practitioners conceptualize their jobs. The advocate and expert roles are relatively dominant among the sample, while female practitioners tend to subscribe more to the mediator role. The implications of these findings are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Synopsis This article explores the underlying dynamics of rights claiming by looking at a women's non-governmental organization named KA.DER (Association for the Support and Training of Women Candidates), which works to encourage women's political participation for office in Turkey. Following a liberal feminist approach, KA.DER frames its claims based on the equality principle. While KA.DER publicly promotes a “politics of equality” in their mandate and activities (which is a liberal approach to feminism), they actually invoke a “politics of difference” approach as revealed in the interview data. For example, the organization promote the representation of women in politics as a group right. In the interviews, they also claim that women are different than men in terms of political decision making. My analysis is based on interviews I conducted in June and December 2013 with active members of KA.DER in several different branches. Four themes emerge from in-depth interviews: increasing the number of women in politics, issue of representation, parity/equal representation instead of the quota system and promoting women's perspectives in politics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper's central concern is to trace how dominant, scientific understanding of climate change is mobilized in ways that set a course towards slow violence. Slow violence is indirect, latent, and results in neglectful human suffering. It can result from particular actions or decisions; it can result from epistemic and political dominance of particular narratives or understandings. This paper takes a constructivist Science and Technology Studies (STS) perspective to look at the emergence of a technoscientific understanding of climate change and to consider political geographic implications of this interpretation. Following an overview of inroads already made in applying an STS approach to climate studies, I turn to two examples of specific scientific narratives or practices, reliance on Global Circulation Models by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and carbon data, to consider ways in which selective, political mobilization of these interpretations of climate change may contribute to forms of slow violence. The science in either case is not in question. Instead, the foreclosure of other ways of understanding human-environment interactions is brought about in part by geopolitics as usual and through the work of powerful actors and interests. The paper argues for a re-politicization of climate change and considers examples of alternative narratives and efforts towards equity and transparency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bern is a classic example of a so-called secondary capital city, which is defined as a capital city that is not the primary economic center of its nation. Such capital cities feature a specific political economy characterized by a strong government presence in its regional economy and its local governance arrangements. Bern has been losing importance in the Swiss urban system over the past decades due to a stagnating economy, population decline and missed opportunities for regional cooperation. To re-position itself in the Swiss urban hierarchy, political leaders and policymakers established a non-profit organization called “Capital Region Switzerland” in 2010 arguing that a capital city should not be measured by economic success only, but by its function as a political center where political decisions are negotiated and implemented. This city profile analyses Bern's strategy and discusses its ambitions and limitations in the context of the city's history, socio-economic and political conditions. We conclude that Bern's positioning strategy has so far been a political success, yet that there are severe limitations regarding advancing economic development. As a result, this re-positioning strategy is not able to address the fundamental economic development challenges that Bern faces as a secondary capital city. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We discuss a non linear extension of a model of alliances in politics, recently proposed by one of us. The model is constructed in terms of operators, describing the interest of three parties to form, or not, some political alliance with the other parties. The time evolution of what we call the decision functions is deduced by introducing a suitable Hamiltonian, which describes the main effects of the interactions of the parties amongst themselves and with their environments , which are generated by their electors and by people who still have no clear idea for which party to vote (or even if to vote). The Hamiltonian contains some non-linear effects, which takes into account the role of a party in the decision process of the other two parties. Moreover, we show how the same Hamiltonian can also be used to construct a formal structure which can describe the dynamics of buying and selling financial assets (without however implying a specific price setting mechanism). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A committee of five uses majority rule for decisions on two public goods. Individual committee member preferences depend on a state of nature that is unknown to the committee members but the state of nature is known to two experts who have preferences about committee decisions. Experts have no vote on the committee but provide a recommendation to the committee at the opening of a meeting. Two experts who have known, opposing biases are selected – a dyadic mechanism. The results reveal that experts do not tell the truth but committee decisions are as if committee members know what the experts know. The information transfer occurs because committee members anticipate the biases and properly infer the information held by the experts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Political decision-making involves the presentation of policy options from opposing points of view and in different lights. We test whether economic policy decisions are subject to equivalency framing by presenting survey participants with binary risky-choice decisions in hypothetical policy scenarios. Potentially mediating influences of expertise on the framing effect are explored using responses of students and professionals. Expertise is thereby defined in line with common education and work experience criteria in the recruitment of public officials. We mostly find unidirectional framing effects in the economic policy scenarios and a similar susceptibility of respondents with different levels of expertise. A logistic regression of the expertise variables on the choice between certain and risky options reveals only the frame to have a systematically significant effect across scenarios. The results indicate that expertise may not necessarily help to make better policy choices under risk, if the available options are framed differently. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although declines in grassland birds have been documented, national initiatives to conserve grasslands and their biota have fallen short in part because the non-market values of natural ecosystems and species are often not recognized in political decision making. Identifying shared, anthropogenic threats faced by market-valued and non-market-valued species may generate additional support for grassland conservation. We quantify the relationship between the market value of grasslands to commercial beekeepers and the importance of grasslands for birds of conservation concern in North and South Dakota. Our models estimated beekeeping annual revenue increased by $7525 USD and grassland bird abundances increased 2 to 7% per 10-km2 increase in grassland area. We estimated grassland conversion from 2006 to 2012 resulted in a $2.0 to $2.8 M USD decrease in annual revenue for beekeepers in the Dakotas. Through this study we demonstrate both the market value of grasslands to commercial beekeepers and the non-market benefits of grasslands in supporting migratory birds and discuss the implications of future land-use change. As grassland conversion and subsequent biodiversity loss continue, understanding the co-benefits of grassland conservation may be necessary to illuminate their contributions to society. • Grassland bird abundance increased 2-7% per 10-km2 increase in grassland area... • Beekeeping annual revenue increased by $7525 USD per 10-km2 increase in grassland area. • Grassland conversion to row crop has decreased beekeeper revenue by > $2 M annually since 2007 in North and South Dakota. • Grassland area declined by 12.7% around Breeding Bird Survey routes in North and South Dakota from 2001 to 2016. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the long- and short-campaign forces and their effects on the error variance in models of presidential voting decisions. Using a heteroskedastic probit allows a separate equation for the error variance and thus insight into campaign effects on voter uncertainty. Controlling for political sophistication, partisan strength and ambivalence, the choices of voters deciding later in the campaign are consistently less predictable. This is important because the number of late deciders has increased in recent elections. Furthermore, ambivalence and residing in a battleground state are stronger sources of error variance among late deciders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many forms of political communication are thought to be expressive rather than instrumental. We present evidence suggesting the presence of a perceived instrumental benefit of individual political communication. Subjects may send a sometimes costly comment on another person's choice of how to donate to two rival political groups. Subjects who may comment before the choice is made – when they may have some persuasive impact – are more than twice as likely to comment as those who may only send a message after the decision. When the timing of the messages – pre- or post-decision – remains fixed, but the experimenter alone receives the message, there is no difference in the proportion of messages sent pre- and post-decision. Moreover, most of the comments made to the decision-maker prior to the decision use an imperative construction, while few do so after the decision is made or when writing to the experimenter alone. Taken together, these results indicate that political expression is both expressive and instrumental. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary Developed countries have relied heavily on aid budgets to fulfill their pledges to boost funding for addressing climate change in developing countries. However, little is known about how interaction between aid and other ministries has shaped contributors’ diverse approaches to climate finance. This paper investigates intra-governmental dynamics in decision-making on climate finance in seven contributor countries (Australia, Denmark, Germany, Japan, Switzerland, the UK, and the US). While aid agencies retained considerable control over implementation, environment and finance ministries have played an influential and often contrasting role on key policy issues, including distribution between mitigation and adaptation and among geographical regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There has been plenty of debate in the academic literature about the nature of the common good or public interest in planning. There is a recognition that the idea is one that is extremely difficult to isolate in practical terms; nevertheless, scholars insist that the idea ‘…remains the pivot around which debates about the nature of planning and its purposes turn’ (Campbell & Marshall, 2002, 163–64). At the point of first principles, these debates have broached political theories of the state and even philosophies of science that inform critiques of rationality, social justice and power. In the planning arena specifically, much of the scholarship has tended to focus on theorising the move from a rational comprehensive planning system in the 1960s and 1970s, to one that is now dominated by deliberative democracy in the form of collaborative planning. In theoretical terms, this debate has been framed by a movement from what are perceived as objective and elitist notions of planning practice and decision-making to ones that are considered (by some) to be ‘inter-subjective’ and non-elitist. Yet despite significant conceptual debate, only a small number of empirical studies have tackled the issue by investigating notions of the common good from the perspective of planning practitioners. What do practitioners understand by the idea of the common good in planning? Do they actively consider it when making planning decisions? Do governance/institutional barriers exist to pursuing the common good in planning? In this paper, these sorts of questions are addressed using the case of Ireland. The methodology consists of a series of semi-structured qualitative interviews with 20 urban planners working across four planning authorities within the Greater Dublin Area, Ireland. The findings show that the most frequently cited definition of the common good is balancing different competing interests and avoiding/minimising the negative effects of development. The results show that practitioner views of the common good are far removed from the lofty ideals of planning theory and reflect the ideological shift of planners within an institution that has been heavily neoliberalised since the 1970s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using of the results of survey questionnaires distributed to climate scientists who focus on the German Baltic coast, regional political decision makers on the German Baltic coast and weather observations from the same region, this paper assesses the existence of developing climate-change lore and the implications for the role of climate science in the science–policy interface. The Oxford Dictionary (1993) provides one definition of lore as ‘A doctrine, a precept; a creed, a religion.’ This is the definition adopted for this paper. The paper concludes that the discrepancies among weather observations, scientific assessments and decision makers’ perceptions suggest that climate-change lore exists, or is coming into existence. The paper then discusses the implications for the science–policy interface and suggests that given current trajectories, science could come to play a secondary role to climate-change lore in regional political decision making concerning climate change. To the truth-to-power model of the science–policy interface and the tenets of post-normal science, three additional possibly evolving science–policy configurations (as pertaining to the climate change issue) are offered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study extends classical models of spreading epidemics to describe the phenomenon of contagious public outrage, which eventually leads to the spread of violence following a disclosure of some unpopular political decisions and/or activity. Accordingly, a mathematical model is proposed to simulate from the start, the internal dynamics by which an external event is turned into internal violence within a population. Five kinds of agents are considered: “Upset” (U), “Violent” (V), “Sensitive” (S), “Immune” (I), and “Relaxed” (R), leading to a set of ordinary differential equations, which in turn yield the dynamics of spreading of each type of agents among the population. The process is stopped with the deactivation of the associated issue. Conditions coinciding with a twofold spreading of public violence are singled out. The results shed new light to understand terror activity and provides some hint on how to curb the spreading of violence within population globally sensitive to specific world issues. Recent violent events in the world are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes a ten-year long technology debate, which dealt with the so-called advanced electricity meters in Norway (1998–2008). The debate circled around one central question: should the implementation of this technology be forced through with regulations or should the market decide on pace and character of implementation? In 2008 it was decided that it was best to regulate the implementation. Throughout these 10 years, the debate largely concerned how the future would look with or without regulation. This paper is inspired by “the sociology of expectation”, which assumes that futures are performative. This means that when the future is evoked or imagined, it influences present action and navigation. With this in mind, the paper analyzes future visions and expectations as they were formulated in the technology debate, and traces the role of these futures in the policy debate and for the policy outcome. The paper identifies two modes of future performativity: translative and transformative futures. Translative futures are often mobilized as spokespersons for desired technology or policy trajectories. Here, they work as (a) stagestting devices : sparking debate, enrolling new actors in the debate and generating interest. Further, they work as (b) regulative tools : establishing the need for political decisions, either to realize the content of future visions, or to avoid the contents of alternative futures. Transformative futures do more subtle and gradual work, shifting the practical, symbolic and cognitive meaning of “what” the technology in question might become in the future. As an example, the significance of the advanced electricity meters discussed in this paper changed from being a device filling the knowledge gaps of electricity consumers, to being a central hub in households delivering a range of potential services and being available for a number of different users. In this paper, I describe the gradual shift in understanding of what advanced electricity meters could be as a virtual domestication trajectory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper studies the link between the diffusion of news and spending decisions. We exploit a dataset of Italian Regions from 1984 to 2008, approximate the spread of information with the diffusion of newspapers, and estimate the effect of the news before and after 1995. In fact, in the mid-90s two reforms introduced the direct election of the governor, autonomous taxing powers and incentives for fiscal discipline at the regional level in Italy. We test the following hypotheses, derived from the theoretical literature: 1) the diffusion of newspapers affects public expenditures close to elections; 2) the more newspapers are diffused, the larger is the reduction of the electoral cycle; 3) before the reform were implemented, the diffusion of newspapers constrained the increased size of expenditures by reducing the positive variation of capital expenditures; 4) after the reform were implemented, the diffusion of newspapers leaves unaffected the size of expenditures by reducing both the positive variation of capital expenditures and the negative variation of current expenditures. The empirical analysis confirms the expectations; the results, moreover, are robust to alternative categorizations of the press and indicate a larger effectiveness of the diffusion of local press. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]