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This paper presents an analysis of the path towards a clean energy transition in rural areas, from the time that households do not have electricity access from any source, to when they get access to the national electricity; considering the intermediate access to an off-grid renewable technology, as well as the post-electrification years. For this, field household-level data are collected through surveys and electricity consumption measurements in rural Kenya. Potential electricity access transitions were analyzed, in which the determinants of grid-electricity and solar home system (SHS) adoption were identified, finding that factors such as peer-pressure, good quality housing materials, and a male as household head will increase the probabilities to up to 45% for grid-electricity adoption. Increasing the electricity price and the unreliability of the electricity service will have a negative effect on these probabilities, reducing them at rates from 5 to 22%. Households that had access to a SHS before getting grid-electricity connection are likely to consume 9 kWh/month (equivalent to 142KSh/month) more than those that did not have access to it. Results also show that women as decision-makers have a key role in the energy transition, as female-headed households are keener to move to cleaner fuels at an early stage. The post-electrification consumption peak is likely to occur until the third year of connection, as households acquire more power-consuming appliances; however, this is greatly affected by the electricity grid unreliability. These findings intend to fill in the knowledge gap on understanding each step of the energy ladder in rural areas, which can potentially support the design of energy access interventions and policy strategies. • Empirical research based on evidence from 250 households in rural Kenya • Maximum likelihood probit models are applied to analyze energy transition paths. • SHSs increase clean fuels adoption and electricity consumption after grid-electrification. • Women as decision-makers are keener to adopt cleaner fuels at early stages. • Electricity usage has an increasing trend over the years, having a peak on the third year. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mini-grids have been widely developed for rural electrification purposes in Kenya, predominantly as systems combining photovoltaic modules (PV), a diesel generator, and battery capacity. (Small) wind turbines have been largely neglected in such setups and are basically non-existent in Kenyan mini-grids despite potential complementarity with PV due to different temporal production profiles of PV and wind power. This study investigates why small wind turbines have largely been omitted from Kenyan mini-grids from both a techno-economic and diffusion theoretical perspective. A techno-economic model is used for backtesting the feasibility of a hybrid PV/wind system, and building upon theories of innovation and diffusion of technology a conceptual framework is developed and applied for assessing the state of the Kenyan mini-grid sector and categorizing identified barriers accordingly. The article thus suggest an interdisciplinary approach to investigating the potential role of small wind power in energy systems transitioning towards renewables. The techno-economic modelling shows that PV/wind hybrids have both technical and economic potential at average wind speeds above 4.5 m/s but little relevance below. Comprehensive barriers within the technical, economic and systemic spheres are encountered by established stakeholders of the Kenyan mini-grid sector, severely hindering diffusion of hybrid PV/wind solutions. • The complementarity of solar and wind resources is explored in a mini-grid setting. • Energy system analysis backtesting the feasibility of hybrid PV/wind solutions for a Kenyan case. • Assessment of barriers to the diffusion of hybrid PV/wind mini-grids in Kenya. • Hybrid PV/wind solutions show techno-economic potential to reduce LCOE. • Substantial systemic, technical, and economic barriers hinder diffusion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper undertakes a comprehensive spatial mapping of the existing energy infrastructure in Kenya. With the perspective of the current energy status and local resources, the study develops a rural electrification spatial model for Kenya (RE_RU_KE tool) to identify optimal strategies for the different locations. The model considers the potential of conventional approaches (diesel gensets), clean technologies (solar, wind, hydro mini-grids), hybrid systems and the option of central grid extension to electrify remote areas in Kenya at the lowest possible cost. The model output is contrasted to the national Rural Electrification Master Plan (REM) of Kenya. While both the REM and RE_RU_KE tool target the off-grid rural electrification options, their methodological approaches are intrinsically different. The comparison between both results aims to enable valuable synergies and highlight the potential complementarities that can create added value for stakeholders involved in rural electrification planning. In particular, RE_RU_KE model output highlights the substantial role that renewable energy systems can play in decentralized generation providing universal energy access to rural households at a competitive cost. • Spatial analysis rural electrification tool for Kenya. • Focus on population without access to electricity covered by off-grid portfolio • Contrast to the Rural Electrification Master Plan in Kenya and the presented tool • Substantial scope for decentralized renewable energy generation in providing universal energy access among rural population [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The Kenya geographical conditions, solar energy profile and rural electrification programme discussed. • Net metering coupled with smart monitoring suggested as the best option. • Opportunities and constrains in the solar energy space in Kenya reviewed and the policy recommendations provided. Kenya is still faced with a number of technical, regulatory, institutional and financial challenges in her quest to fully develop and deploy solar electrification. A critical review of these challenges is therefore necessary in order to realize the numerous benefits associated with solar energy. This review focuses on four major aspects of solar electrification in Kenya: (i) the opportunities available for solar electrification (ii) the main barriers encountered in solar electrification (iii) government policies governing solar energy and (iv) the future panorama of solar energy space. A careful analysis of all of these aspects reveals that there are enormous solar energy market opportunities in Kenya with great potential for investment, poverty eradication, and sustainable economic development that can only be realized if the government fully enforces the existing energy policies, reforms energy subsidies, provides favorable tax holidays and implements net metering mechanism in the country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Decentralised Solar Home Systems (SHSs) are established as an effective strategy to connect the 'last mile' without electricity access and leapfrog communities to clean energy solutions. According to the World Bank, the Pay-As-You-Go (PAYG) model has emerged as one of the effective commercially viable solutions to provide decentralised energy access to rural and remote communities in developing nations. The paying ability of households is a critical challenge for energy enterprises, and PAYG, with its easy payment schemes makes solar units affordable and allows households to gradually own these systems. The model also offers user training, ongoing maintenance, and service blocking functionality that minimises investment risk. The PAYG model has demonstrated huge success in Sub-Saharan Africa where Kenya pioneered the model as a cost competitive modern alternative for kerosene. One in five people in India lack access to electricity, and grid-connected rural communities often face frequent blackouts. With the advancement in distributed solar technologies and growing penetration of the mobile telecommunications network in India, PAYG could advance into a successful model to electrify communities living off the grid. Our analysis involves a two-dimensional approach where a systematic review of PAYG literature including case studies from Kenya and India was performed, followed by three expert interviews to further augment learnings and opportunities to deploy PAYG SHSs in India. This analysis finds that India's socio-political context seems suited for increased PAYG penetration, including utilising the opportunity provided by the country's Unified Payments Interface. This paper offers insights for practitioners and policymakers to consider the PAYG model to deploy clean electricity to households and rural micro-enterprises. Highlights • Lessons for successful implementation of PAYG energy model in India • Superior products and maintenance mechanisms are integrated into PAYG. • PAYG financing appropriate for energy budgets of poor households. • India's Unified Payments Interface presents a unique opportunity for PAYG model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mini-grids for rural electrification in developing countries are growing in popularity but are not yet widely deployed. A key barrier of mini-grid proliferation is the uncertainty in predicting customer electricity consumption, which adds financial risk. Energy-use surveys deployed in the pre-feasibility stage that capture present and aspirational consumption are intended to reduce this uncertainty. However, the general reliability and accuracy of these surveys has not been demonstrated. This research compares survey-predicted electrical energy use to actual measured consumption of customers of eight mini-grids in rural Kenya. A follow-up audit compares the aspirational inventory of appliances to the realized inventory. The analysis shows that the ability to accurately estimate past consumption based on survey or audit data, even in a relatively short time-horizon is prone to appreciable error — a mean absolute error of 426 Wh/day per customer on a mean consumption of 113 Wh/day per customer. An alternative data-driven proxy village approach, which uses average customer consumption from each mini-grid to predict consumption at other mini-grids, was more accurate and reduced the mean absolute error to 75 Wh/day per customer. Hourly load profiles were constructed to provide insight into potential causes of error and to suggest how the data provided in this work can be used in computer-aided mini-grid design programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work provides a comprehensive approach for electrification of rural areas of Kenya through taking into account both energy demand and supply sides. Toward this, a pre-fabricated composite building is assessed by defining two different levels of energy needs and calculating annual cooling and heating energy demands to keep the occupants within the comfort temperature range. Consequently, four passive cooling techniques (shading, natural ventilation, cool painting and increased thickness of interior gypsum plaster) are applied to decrease the cooling energy demand. Afterwards, a stand-alone photovoltaic (SAPV) system is designed through sizing of the main components as well as determining the optimum tilt angle and azimuth for the PV array. Finally, four PV technologies (monocrystalline silicon (mono-Si), polycrystalline silicon (poly-Si), cadmium telluride (CdTe) and copper indium selenide (CIS)) were assessed for the designed SAPV system and compared in terms of environmental impact and cost and CIS demonstrated the best performance in all criteria. The results highlight a reduction of about 84% in cooling energy demand through combining all passive cooling techniques originating a house displaying passive behavior. Moreover, the SAPV system proves to be a feasible solution with significant lower cost and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in comparison with alternative solutions. The results also outline the importance of the loss of load probability ( LLP ) in designing SAPV systems indicating a sudden increase in required power of array for LLP s less than 2%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, a hybrid power system consisting of PV (Photovoltaics) panels, a wind turbine and a biogas engine is proposed to supply the electricity demand of a village in Kenya. The average and the peak load of the village are around 8 kW and 16.5 kW respectively. The feasibility of using locally produced biogas to drive a backup engine in comparison to using a diesel engine as backup has been explored through a techno-economic analysis using HOMER (Hybrid Optimization Model for Electric Renewables). This hybrid system has also been compared with a single diesel based power system. The results show that the hybrid system integrated with the biogas engine as backup can be a better solution than using a diesel engine as backup. The share of power generation by PV, wind and biogas are 49%, 19% and 32%, respectively. The LCOE (Levelized Cost of Electricity) of generated electricity by this hybrid system ($0.25/kWh) is about 20% cheaper than that with a diesel engine as backup ($0.31/kWh), while the capital cost and the total NPC (Net Present Cost) are about 30% and 18% lower, respectively. Regarding CO 2 emissions, using a biogas engine as backup saves 17 tons of CO 2 per year compared to using the diesel engine as backup. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rural electrification has been a long-standing goal in Kenya, but there is still a long way to go with only 7% rural access to electricity. Therefore, there lies great potential for small wind turbines (SWT) in areas with sufficient wind resources. This paper presents a review of the SWT sector in Kenya. The review consists of a description of the status of the sector and a more in-depth investigation into factors and dynamics that hinder sector growth. This investigation is performed by using a combination of two theoretical approaches: Strategic Niche Management (SNM) and the Multi-Level Perspective (MLP). The main insights from this review are that the SWT sector in Kenya is growing but is characterized by one-time experiments, fragmented learning experiences, lack of focus and low quality products and services. The weakly aligned network with many underperforming actors and unaligned expectations is the main cause of the weak current status of the sector. Despite the low rural electricity access and growing electricity demand, niche upscaling remains cumbersome due to external factors such as corruption, poverty, lack of innovation and an anti-entrepreneurial mind-set. The results of this review serve as inputs for recommendations for all niche actors on what can be done to make the niche grow. In addition, the paper includes ideas on how the SNM and MLP approaches could become better suited for reviewing and analyzing renewable energy technologies in developing countries such as SWTs in the Kenyan context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Developing countries have struggled with low electrification rates in rural areas. This study investigates one major issue which is impeding rural electrification programmes: high connection payments. This paper uses estimates obtained from a stated preference study in rural Kenya using a contingent valuation method which was completed in 2007, in order to examine the subjects'' willingness to pay to connect to grid electricity and photovoltaic services. The key findings suggest that the government needs to reform the current energy subsidies, establish financial schemes and create a multilevel critical analysis of the political economy of energy systems. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Summary: In this paper we clarify the mechanisms through which rural electrification can contribute to rural development. Through a detailed case study analysis of a community-based electric micro-grid in rural Kenya, we demonstrate that access to electricity enables the use of electric equipment and tools by small and micro enterprises, resulting in significant improvement in productivity per worker (100–200% depending on the task at hand) and in a corresponding growth in income levels in the order of 20–70%, depending on the product made. Access to electricity simultaneously enables and improves the delivery of social and business services from a wide range of village-level infrastructure (e.g., schools, markets, and water pumps) while improving the productivity of agricultural activities. We find that increased productivity and growth in revenues within the context of better delivery of social and business support services contribute to achieving higher social and economic benefits for rural communities. We also demonstrate that when local electricity users have an ability to charge and enforce cost-reflective tariffs and when electricity consumption is closely linked to productive uses that generate incomes, cost recovery is feasible. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper discusses off-grid electrification options for low-income households in rural Kenya, where less than 2% are grid connected. The paper outlines the electrical load priorities of rural households and describes how these are supplied at present through centrally charged automotive batteries and solar home systems. The recent introduction of pico hydro schemes (<5 kW) to Kenya is discussed, including details of the implementation of the two community schemes and the costs involved. A comparison is made between pico hydro and solar home systems and conclusions are presented on the way forward for off-grid electrification in Kenya. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

[Display omitted] • A GIS-based MCDM model for the site selection of solar and wind energies in Kenya is proposed. • A decision-making sizing model for sustainable energy access is developed for rural electrification. • 19.28 and 35, 18.9% of Kenyan's land has the potential for installation of solar, wind, and hybrid solar/wind. • Hybrid solar-wind-diesel mini-grid is the first ranked alternative for supplying the representative rural village. • The designed system has the best energy, economy, and ecology performances compared to grid extension and diesel systems. The use of hybrid renewable energy system (HRES) holds great promise for sustainable electrification and support countries reaching their energy access goals. The site selection and design of HRES are strategic stages towards ensuring an affordable, sustainable, and well-performing project. However, both are multidimensional and intricate issues that involve multiple conflicting assessment criteria and alternatives, which are not yet investigated comprehensively and simultaneously in many of the existing literature. In this context, the paper aims to develop a systematic and conceptual decision-making framework for site suitability and optimal design of HRESs, with an application on a regional scale in Kenya, Sub-Saharan Africa. The suggested framework is applied through three consecutive phases. First, a geographical information system (GIS) is combined with Best Worst Method (BWM) decision-making approach to spatially investigate and analyze the potential sites of solar, wind, and hybrid solar/wind systems. Within the spatial investigation, 9 different climatology, environment, location, and orography criteria are considered. Second, energy-economy-ecology (E3) design optimization is conducted to determine the list of feasible alternatives among grid-extension, autonomous HRES, and stand-alone diesel genset electrification schemes for powering a representative remote rural village in Kenya. Third, a post-optimality multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) analysis is applied to decide and assess the optimal energy access design against 12 key sustainability indicators. In the third phase, the BWM is employed to define the weights of each indicator. Then, the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) and the VIšekriterijumsko KOmpromisno Rangiranje (VIKOR) decision making approaches are used for the final ranking of feasible alternatives. The obtained site suitability maps of Kenya show that 0.91% (5322 km2) and 1.5% (8828.4 km2) of the land is highly suitable, 10.25% (59687 km2) and 33.04% (192360 km2) is suitable, and 80.5% (470313 km2) and 65% (378407 km2) is permanently unsuitable for establishing solar and wind systems, respectively. Also, E3-MCDM results indicate that the development of solar/wind/diesel/battery HRES is the best sustainable solution to supply the studied region as compared to other feasible alternatives. The system does not only guarantee a reliable operation with an unmet load of 552 kWh/yr, but it also has the lowest net present and energy costs at 2.6 M$ and 0.28 $/kWh, respectively, meanwhile avoiding annual CO 2 of 804 tons compared with diesel system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Stochastic optimization of isolated microgrids, considering load growth uncertainties. • Ageing model for battery, photovoltaic plant, diesel generator, converters and tank. • Load following operation strategy including the effects of assets degradation. • Detailed multi-year simulations at hourly time resolution for microgrid sizing. • Comparison between deterministic and stochastic, single- and multi-year optimization. The optimal design of off-grid microgrids in developing countries is difficult to achieve, as several political and socio-economic risks can hamper investments of private companies. Estimating the energy demand and its growth is a challenging task, subject to high uncertainty that rarely have been accounted for in multi-year simulations at hourly resolution. Besides, from a long-term perspective, the assets degradation can significantly affect the performance of stand-alone hybrid energy systems. In this paper, we address these challenges and propose a novel stochastic dynamic method to size microgrids, simulating with accuracy the system operation and considering the unavoidable uncertainty in load growth and the components ageing. A predefined scenario tree structure allows capturing the load growth uncertainty and obtaining different capacity expansion strategies for each scenario. An illustrative case study for an isolated power system in Kenya using data collected in 23 Kenyan microgrids is shown. The proposed stochastic formulation results in a considerable reduction of the size of components with respect to traditional single-year approaches. Savings in terms of Net Present Cost (NPC) are beyond 16-20% and the effects of assets degradation are about 6%. Results lead to recommend multi-year optimization tools, as single-year methodologies can hardly achieve the same performances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Using Modern Portfolio theory in the electricity sector can help address the energy trilemma and stimulate investment into renewable energy sources. • The current portfolio of electricity generating resources in Kenya is not optimal. • Diversified electricity-generating resources portfolios are cheaper and have less risk. Affordable and reliable electricity is a development priority, but many people in low-income countries continue to live without it. The main challenge to ensuring universal access to electricity is the energy trilemma: striking a balance between costs, security, and environmental sustainability. Kenya is one of the countries that face energy trilemma as the electricity demand expands. We use modern portfolio theory (MPT) from the finance sector to address this challenge by deriving a theoretical efficient frontier for electricity generation in Kenya. The study finds that although the current portfolio of electricity generation in Kenya is not optimal, it is possible to shift to an efficient portfolio that has lower costs, is diversified, and environmentally sustainable. We conclude that MPT addresses the energy trilemma and therefore, it can help in the planning of electricity generation in countries whose electricity sectors are still developing. Our study adds to the literature about the applicability of MPT in the electricity sector and proposes ways for Kenya to improve the electricity-generating portfolio. We anticipate that the results will encourage electricity sector planners to consider portfolio planning for electricity generation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]