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Abstract: Papermaking is known as an energy-intensive, but not always efficient industry. This is at least partly due to the fact that the majority of papermaking technologies and procedures were established at a time when energy was both cheap and plentiful. A considerable fraction of the energy required for papermaking is consumed in removing water by the use of steam in the paper machine’s drying section. It is also known that even a small reduction in steam use can result in a significant reduction in production costs and environmental effects. To date, a great deal of research has been undertaken, aimed at improving the performance of the drying section by making more efficient use of dryer steam. This paper investigates a new approach to reducing thermal energy use in paper making by seeking to enhance the amount of water removed in sections of the machine prior to the drying section. The proposed method is focused on sequential modelling of the effect of vacuums used in the forming section on the thermal energy consumption in the drying section. The primary models explain how different vacuum pressures can affect the flow of water from the sheet in the forming section whilst the secondary models describe the effect of increased drainage on the steam requirements in the dryer. Operational data from a UK paper mill are used to illustrate the proposed method. The models developed can have subsequent application to optimising the use of thermal energy in paper making. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In this paper, a systematic review of academic literature and policy papers since 2008 is undertaken with an aim of identifying the prevalent energy systems models and tools in the UK. A list of all referenced models is presented and the literature is analysed with regards sectoral coverage and technological inclusion, as well as mathematical structure of models. The paper compares available models using an appropriate classification schema, the introduction of which is aimed at making the model landscape more accessible and perspicuous, thereby enhancing the diversity of models within use. The distinct classification presented in this paper comprises three sections, which specify the model purpose and structure, technological detail and mathematical approach. The schema is not designed to be comprehensive, but rather to be a broad classification with pertinent level of information required to differentiate between models. As an example, the UK model landscape is considered and 22 models are classified in three tables, as per the proposed schema. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper presents the development of a new building physics and energy supply systems simulation platform. It has been adapted from both existing commercial models and empirical works, but designed to provide expedient exhaustive simulation of all salient types of energy- and carbon-reducing retrofit options. These options may include any combination of behavioural measures, building fabric and equipment upgrades, improved HVAC control strategies, or novel low-carbon energy supply technologies. We provide a methodological description of the proposed model, followed by two illustrative case studies of the tool when used to investigate retrofit options of a mixed-use office building and primary school in the UK. It is not the intention of this paper, nor would it be feasible, to provide a complete engineering decomposition of the proposed model, describing all calculation processes in detail. Instead, this paper concentrates on presenting the particular engineering aspects of the model which steer away from conventional practise. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Efficient and rational implementation of building stock CO2 emission reduction strategies and policies requires the application of comprehensive building stock models that have the ability to: (a) estimate the baseline energy demand of the existing building stock, (b) explore the technical and economic effects of different CO2 emission reduction strategies over time, including the impact of new technologies, and (c) to identify the effect of emission reduction strategies on indoor environmental quality. The aims of this paper are fourfold: (a) to briefly describe bottom-up and top-down methods and overview common bottom-up modelling techniques (statistical and building physics based), (b) to critically analyse the existing bottom-up building physics based residential energy models focusing on their purposes, strengths, and shortcomings, (c) to compare five building physics based bottom-up models focusing on the same building stock – UK case study, and (d) to identify the next generation of coupled energy–health bottom-up building stock models. This paper has identified three major issues which need to be addressed: a) the lack of publicly available detailed data relating to inputs and assumptions, as well as underlying algorithms, renders any attempt to reproduce their outcomes problematic, b) lack of data on the relative importance of input parameter variations on the predicted demand outputs, and c) uncertainty as to the socio-technical drivers of energy consumption – how people use energy and how they react to changes in their home as a result of energy conservation measures. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Highlights • On most indicators, social exclusion was associated with rural/urban residence. • Higher levels of social exclusion were associated with lower well-being. • Seven social exclusion indicators were significant in an urban model of well-being. • Five social exclusion indicators were significant in a rural model of well-being. • Neighbourhood exclusion significantly improved rural and urban models of well-being. Abstract Background Social exclusion (SE) is a process that limits participation in society across life domains, and is associated with poor quality of life. Neighbourhood exclusion has been identified as particularly important for older adults. This paper examines the association between SE and well-being in older adults from urban and rural areas, focusing on neighbourhood exclusion. Methods Using a cross-sectional survey design with a stratified sampling frame, participants (aged 65+) from rural (n = 628) and urban (n = 627) areas of Barnsley, United Kingdom, completed a questionnaire containing indicators of five SE domains: civic activity, material resources, social relationships, services and neighbourhood. Sequential multiple regression models were developed for 1) total sample; 2) rural areas; and 3) urban areas, with well-being regressed on SE indicators after controlling for self-reported health. Results SE indicators explained 13.4% of the variance in well-being in the total sample (of which neighbourhood exclusion explained 1.2%); corresponding figures for the rural model were 13.8% (3.8%) and for the urban model 18.0% (1.7%); the addition of neighbourhood exclusion significantly improved all three models. Five SE indicators were significant in the rural model, compared with seven in the urban model, with four common to both. Discussion Neighbourhood exclusion explained more variance in well-being in rural than urban areas, whereas exclusion from services explained more variance in urban than rural areas. Area characteristics and the role of neighbourhood should be considered in policy initiatives to reduce SE and promote well-being. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Rapid, or abrupt, climate change is regarded as a change in the climate system to a new state following the crossing of a threshold. It generally occurs at a rate exceeding that of the change in the underlying cause. Episodes of rapid climate change abound in the recent geological past (defined here as the interval between the last glacial maximum, dated to approximately 20,000years ago, and the present). Rapid climate changes are known to have occurred over time periods equal to or even less than a human lifespan: moreover, their effects on the global system are sufficiently large to have had significant societal impacts. The potential for similar events to occur in the future provides an important impetus for investigating the nature and causes of rapid climate change. This paper provides a brief overview of rapid climate change and an introduction to this special issue, which presents results generated by the palaeoclimatic component of the UK Natural Environment Research Council''s rapid climate change programme, called RAPID. The papers in the special issue employ palaeoclimatic proxy data-sets obtained from marine, ice core and terrestrial archives to reconstruct rapid climate change during the last glacial cycle, its subsequent termination and the ensuing Holocene interglacial; some papers also report new attempts to match the palaeoclimate data to hypothesised causes through numerical modelling. The results confirm the importance of freshwater forcing in triggering changes in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) and the close links between MOC and rapid climate change. While advancing our understanding of these linkages, the RAPID research has highlighted the need for further research in order to elucidate more specific details of the mechanisms involved. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Explicit health care rationing or priority-setting is the use of institutional procedures for the systematic allocation of resources within health care systems. With the establishment of priority setting systems in various countries in the past two decades, research has been conducted on their principles, methods and institutional aspects. This paper draws on the sociology of science and technology to propose an uncertainty-focused conceptual model of the relationship between knowledge practises and political processes in health care rationing. Taking a case-study approach, the paper explores the public controversy about whether dementia drugs should be available on the UK National Health Service. It shows how three aspects of the controversy – loose institutional framing, open membership and hybrid knowledge – worked together to enable the use of a ‘pragmatic balance’ between rules and cases. Placing this outcome within the space of possibilities suggested by the model, the paper suggests that accepting and fostering the exploration of uncertainty at the core of health care priority setting systems should provide those systems with increased social robustness. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The consumption patterns of Western nations are generally deemed to be unsustainable. Yet there is little attempt to restrain either material throughput or income growth. Nonetheless, in the face of the need to make ‘deep’ cuts in carbon emissions (for instance), consumption restraint may be a perfectly legitimate response. This paper explores the potential for a Reduced Consumption Scenario in the UK constructed by assuming that households achieve a specific ‘minimum income standard’ which is deemed to provide a decent life for each household type. The minimum income standards are taken from a recent study for the Joseph Rowntree Foundation and include not only subsistence commodities such as food, warmth and shelter but also the means to participate effectively in society. The Joseph Rowntree Foundation study produced detailed household expenditure budgets for these income standards. The paper uses an environmentally extended Quasi-Multi-Regional Input–Output model to estimate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions required in the production and distribution of all goods and services purchased according to these budgets. Our results show that average household GHG emissions in the UK would be around 37% lower in the Reduced Consumption Scenario than they are currently. We explore several implications of these findings including: the need to change social norms around consumption, the need for investment to improve the thermal performance of homes and the need to develop new transport infrastructures. We also address the potential to reduce emissions below the level achieved in this Scenario and discuss the implications for policy. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In this paper, we offer insights into practices of tracking as part of healthy living through talk about home blood pressure and weight from adults living in the UK. Drawing on theoretical resources from feminist ethics of care and Science and Technology Studies on care as socio-material practice, we build on interest in the relational dimensions of tracking and the potential for intimate surveillance and care using monitoring technologies. Our cases offer not only new perspectives in a field that has often focused on fitness tracking but also help go beyond a narrow focus on surveillance, showing how surveillance and care may be intertwined in the everyday negotiation of health-related tracking and other 'health practices' in family life. Using the diversity in our relatively large sample, and reflecting on the different types of interview completed, we highlight the varied ways in which adults engage with tracking blood pressure and weight (or body mass index) in the context of established relationships. The combination of attentiveness and appeals to responsibility for maintaining health as something owed to a partner can make tracking a very ethically sensitive area. In this paper we emphasise that reciprocity is one important way in which couples make tracking feel more like care. Tracking together or discussing it can take couples in this direction even if the actual practice remains somewhat difficult. On the other hand, responsiveness to someone else's feelings, including a desire to avoid the topic altogether, or avoid weight as a specific parameter, might all help move towards more caring tracking. We therefore develop a more sustained account of care in relation to tracking than in previous work, and a novel account of tracking as a (potential) care practice between adult partners. • Explores tracking of blood pressure and BMI in the context of 'healthy living'. • Combines insights from feminist ethics of care and STS 'care-in-practice'. • Analyses 'tracking-as-care' negotiated in intimate adult relationships. • Negotiations understood as practical ethics - disentangling care and surveillance. • Shows how method of joint interviews surface such negotiations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: High levels of excess mortality (i.e. that not explained by deprivation) have been observed for Scotland compared with England & Wales, and especially for Glasgow in comparison with similar post-industrial cities such as Liverpool and Manchester. Many potential explanations have been suggested. Based on an assessment of these, the aim was to develop an understanding of the most likely underlying causes. Note that this paper distils a larger research report, with the aim of reaching wider audiences beyond Scotland, as the important lessons learnt are relevant to other populations. Study design: Review and dialectical synthesis of evidence. Methods: Forty hypotheses were examined, including those identified from a systematic review. The relevance of each was assessed by means of Bradford Hill's criteria for causality alongside--for hypotheses deemed causally linked to mortality--comparisons of exposures between Glasgow and Liverpool/Manchester, and between Scotland and the rest of Great Britain. Where gaps in the evidence base were identified, new research was undertaken. Causal chains of relevant hypotheses were created, each tested in terms of its ability to explain the many different aspects of excess mortality. The models were further tested with key informants from public health and other disciplines. Results: In Glasgow's case, the city was made more vulnerable to important socioeconomic (deprivation, deindustrialisation) and political (detrimental economic and social policies) exposures, resulting in worse outcomes. This vulnerability was generated by a series of historical factors, processes and decisions: the lagged effects of historical overcrowding; post-war regional policy including the socially selective relocation of population to outside the city; more detrimental processes of urban change which impacted on living conditions; and differences in local government responses to UK government policy in the 1980s which both impacted in negative terms in Glasgow and also conferred protective effects on comparator cities. Further resulting protective factors were identified (e.g. greater 'social capital' in Liverpool) which placed Glasgow at a further relative disadvantage. Other contributory factors were highlighted, including the inadequate measurement of deprivation. A similar 'explanatory model' resulted for Scotland as a whole. This included: the components of the Glasgow model, given their impact on nationally measured outcomes; inadequate measurement of deprivation; the lagged effects of deprivation (in particular higher levels of overcrowding historically); and additional key vulnerabilities. Conclusions: The work has helped to further understanding of the underlying causes of Glasgow's and Scotland's high levels of excess mortality. The implications for policy include the need to address three issues simultaneously: to protect against key exposures (e.g. poverty) which impact detrimentally across all parts of the UK; to address the existing consequences of Glasgow's and Scotland's vulnerability; and to mitigate against the effects of future vulnerabilities which are likely to emerge from policy responses to contemporary problems which fail sufficiently to consider and to prevent long-term, unintended social consequences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As complex environments within which individuals and populations operate, universities present important contexts for understanding and addressing health issues. The healthy university is an example of the settings approach, which adopts a whole system perspective, aiming to make places within which people, learn, live, work and play supportive to health and well-being. The UK Healthy Universities Network has formulated an online toolkit, which includes a Self-Review Tool, intended to enable universities to assess what actions they need to take to develop as a healthy university. This paper presents findings from consultative research undertaken with students from universities in England, Scotland and Wales, which explored what they believe, represents a healthy university. Methods: Student surveys and focus groups were used to collect data across eleven universities in England, Scotland and Wales. A priori themes were used to develop our own model for a healthy university, and for the thematic coding phase of analysis. Findings: A healthy university would promote student health and well-being in every aspect of its business from its facilities and environment through to its curriculum. Access to reasonably priced healthy food and exercise facilities were key features of a healthy university for students in this study. The Self-Review Tool has provided a crucial start for universities undertaking the journey towards becoming a healthy university. In looking to the future both universities and the UK Healthy Universities Network will now need to look at what students want from their whole university experience, and consider how the Self-Review Tool can help universities embrace a more explicit conceptual framework. Conclusion: The concept of a healthy university that can tailor its facilities and supportive environments to the needs of its students will go some way to developing students who are active global citizens and who are more likely to value and prioritise health and well-being, in the short and long term through to their adult lives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we trace how mathematical models are made 'evidence enough' and 'useful for policy'. Working with the interview accounts of mathematical modellers and other scientists engaged in the UK Covid-19 response, we focus on two weeks in March 2020 prior to the announcement of an unprecedented national lockdown. A key thread in our analysis is how pandemics are made 'big'. We follow the work of one particular device, that of modelled 'doubling-time'. By following how modelled doubling-time entangles in its assemblage of evidence-making, we draw attention to multiple actors, including beyond models and metrics, which affect how evidence is performed in relation to the scale of epidemic and its policy response. We draw attention to: policy; Government scientific advice infrastructure; time; uncertainty; and leaps of faith. The 'bigness' of the pandemic, and its evidencing, is situated in social and affective practices, in which uncertainty and dis-ease are inseparable from calculus. This materialises modelling in policy as an 'uncomfortable science'. We argue that situational fit in-the-moment is at least as important as empirical fit when attending to what models perform in policy. • Pandemics are performed as crises of uncertain yet catastrophic potential. • Mathematical models are forms of scalar narrative affording epidemics their scale. • Models and projections are made useful as evidence in their situated policy events. • Calculations are given agency as affects in the evidencing of pandemics. • Modelling pandemics is a site of 'uncomfortable science' and 'dis-ease'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: An analytical methodology for predicting above-roof mean wind speeds in urban areas is first used to map wind speeds over four different UK cities. The methodology utilises detailed geometric data describing buildings and vegetation to calculate the aerodynamic characteristics of the urban surfaces, and accounts for the influence of building height heterogeneity and wind direction upon wind profiles. The initial objective of the work is to determine the accuracy of the methodology when using detailed geometric data describing building roof shapes in addition to their heights, to estimate surface aerodynamic parameters. By integrating detailed LiDAR (light detection and ranging) data into the methodology and comparing the predictions with measured data, predictive accuracy is found to improve significantly with respect to previous results obtained using less detailed geometric datasets which describe each building with a single height. Subsequently, a preliminary evaluation of the cumulative, city-scale potential for generating wind energy is made, using the UK City of Leeds as a case study. The results suggest that from the point of view of wind resource, 2000 to 9500 viable building-mounted wind turbine locations may exist in Leeds, highlighting the potential for this technology to be far more widely deployed than has presently been achieved. However, the calculations are shown to be highly sensitive to the viable wind speed selected, which in turn depends on financial support and technological progress. An investigation is then made into where, in general, viable roof-top turbine locations may be found. The results suggest that there are viable sites distributed throughout the city, including within the complex city centre, where at the most suitable locations above-roof wind speeds may be comparable to those observed at well exposed rural sites. However, in residential areas, consisting of groups of buildings of similar heights, it is likely that the majority of properties will be unsuitable turbine locations. The wind maps and methodology described in this paper may be utilised by turbine suppliers and customers for assessing the viability of potential sites, as well as being instructive for policymakers developing subsidies for small-scale renewable energy projects. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Universities and Public Research Organisation rely on the capabilities and competences of their transfer offices to engage with commercial partners and to manage the exchange of knowledge and expertise. This paper promotes a model that can be used to analyse the capabilities and relative strategies of these transfer offices. Based on a ‘core competences’ approach the model enables the precise characterisation of the different modes and methods of transfer and engagement. Findings, coming from a two-year, in-depth comparative study of two transfer offices located in France and in the UK, underline the office''s relative positioning within their institutional environment and identify the relative priority given to their use of the channels of transfer. These results provide a guide for the strategic management of transfer offices that are now operating within an ‘open innovation’ paradigm. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Recent activity in the development of future weather data for building performance simulation follows recognition of the limitations of traditional methods, which have been based on a stationary (observed) climate. In the UK, such developments have followed on from the availability of regional climate models as delivered in UKCIP02 and recently the probabilistic projections released under UKCP09. One major area of concern is the future performance and adaptability of buildings which employ exclusively passive or low-energy cooling systems. One such method which can be employed in an integral or retrofit situation is direct or indirect evaporative cooling. The effectiveness of evaporative cooling is most strongly influenced by the wet-bulb depression of the ambient air, hence is generally regarded as most suited to hot, dry climates. However, this technology has been shown to be effective in the UK, primarily in mixed-mode buildings or as a retrofit to industrial/commercial applications. Climate projections for the UK generally indicate an increase in the summer wet-bulb depression, suggesting an enhanced potential for the application of evaporative cooling. The paper illustrates this potential by an analysis of the probabilistic scenarios released under UKCP09, together with a detailed building/plant simulation of case study building located in the South-East of England. The results indicate a high probability that evaporative cooling will still be a viable low-energy technique in the 2050s. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper uses probabilistic climate change data from the UK Climate Change Projections 2009 to define extreme climate change in order to model the effect of future temperature change, particularly summer overheating on the energy consumption of, and comfort in, existing English homes (located in Oxford). Climate change risk is then analysed as a factor of climate hazard, exposure and vulnerability. With the risk of overheating theoretically identified, the risk of overheating and the future change impact on space heating energy use is then virtually detailed for four English home types modelled using future weather years in a dynamic simulation modelling software (IES). A range of passive adaptation measures are then critically reviewed with regard to their effectiveness in minimising the negative impacts of climate change and to identify the most effective measures in reducing or eliminating the negative impacts of climate change on comfort and energy consumption. In addition the adaptation options are grouped and tested as packages in order to identify the optimal solution for adaptive retrofitting of English homes. For all homes modelled, user-controlled shading proved to be the most effective adaptation. Increasing the surface albedo of the building fabric and exposure of thermal mass were also revealed to be effective although proving to be complicated and requiring detailed consideration of the optimal locations. Ultimately among the passive options tested, the research found that none could completely eliminate the risk of overheating in the homes, particularly by the 2080s. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper outlines the development and application of a domestic heat pump model for space heating and cooling energy. The model is intended to bridge the gap between the single coefficient of performance parameter currently used in the UK procedures for the assessment of the energy efficiency of dwellings and the dynamic simulation models frequently developed for the academic estimation of heat pump energy use. It is responsive to variations in source and sink temperatures whilst being simple enough to be embedded in a spreadsheet model. The model was developed by: building a regression model, using heat pump performance test results, relating heat pump coefficient of performance to the differential between source and sink temperatures – “lift”; deriving estimating rules for monthly supply temperature estimates for commonly-used heat pump sources and for demand temperatures for normal wet central heating sinks to give a monthly estimate for the source/sink differential; embedding the regression model in the UK standard model for domestic energy estimation, with additional routines to estimate energy consumption for additional heat and for space cooling. The model developed was validated by comparison with the existing BREDEM model. Compared with the standard BREDEM estimates, the resulting model showed correct response to changes in ambient temperatures, allowing correct estimating of consumption for additional heat under conditions of climate change. It showed variation of heat pump coefficient of performance across the year, allowing better estimation of winter peak load. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Rainwater harvesting is increasingly becoming an integral part of the sustainable water management toolkit. Despite a plethora of studies modelling the feasibility of the utilisation of rainwater harvesting (RWH) systems in particular contexts, there remains a significant gap in knowledge in relation to detailed empirical assessments of performance. Domestic systems have been investigated to a limited degree in the literature, including in the UK, but there are few recent longitudinal studies of larger non-domestic systems. Additionally, there are few studies comparing estimated and actual performance. This paper presents the results of a longitudinal empirical performance assessment of a non-domestic RWH system located in an office building in the UK. Furthermore, it compares actual performance with the estimated performance based on two methods recommended by the British Standards Institute – the Intermediate (simple calculations) and Detailed (simulation-based) Approaches. Results highlight that the average measured water saving efficiency (amount of mains water saved) of the office-based RWH system was 87% across an 8-month period, due to the system being over-sized for the actual occupancy level. Consequently, a similar level of performance could have been achieved using a smaller-sized tank. Estimated cost savings resulted in capital payback periods of 11 and 6 years for the actual over-sized tank and the smaller optimised tank, respectively. However, more detailed cost data on maintenance and operation is required to perform whole life cost analyses. These findings indicate that office-scale RWH systems potentially offer significant water and cost savings. They also emphasise the importance of monitoring data and that a transition to the use of Detailed Approaches (particularly in the UK) is required to (a) minimise over-sizing of storage tanks and (b) build confidence in RWH system performance. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper explores the influence of individuals’ environmental attitudes and urban design features on travel behavior, including mode choice. It uses data from residents of 13 new neighborhood UK developments designed to support sustainable travel. It is found that almost all respondents were concerned about environmental issues, but their views did not necessarily ‘match’ their travel behavior. Individuals’ environmental concerns only had a strong relationship with walking within and near their neighborhood, but not with cycling or public transport use. Residents’ car availability reduced public transport trips, walking and cycling. The influence of urban design features on travel behaviors was mixed, higher incidences of walking in denser, mixed and more permeable developments were not found and nor did residents own fewer cars than the population as a whole. Residents did, however, make more sustainable commuting trips than the population in general. Sustainable modes of travel were related to urban design features including secured bike storage, high connectivity of the neighborhoods to the nearby area, natural surveillance, high quality public realm and traffic calming. Likewise the provision of facilities within and nearby the development encouraged high levels of walking. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper develops a system dynamics model of the UK take-up of electric vehicles over the next 40 years. The model extends previous work by to allow analysis of the UK market. The impact on uptake and CO2 emissions of factors such as subsidies, range, charge point availability, emission rates and a revenue preserving tax are considered. We show that subsidies have little impact on take-up under a traditional business as usual case. However, when we introduce a conditional marketing scenario, they play an important role in tipping the market into a successful trajectory. The sensitivity of the results to assumptions on word of mouth, average vehicle life and emissions rates are explored and we find that changing these can result in a greater impact on take-up and emissions than policy or vehicle attribute factors. Our results have important policy implications. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: openair is an R package primarily developed for the analysis of air pollution measurement data but which is also of more general use in the atmospheric sciences. The package consists of many tools for importing and manipulating data, and undertaking a wide range of analyses to enhance understanding of air pollution data. In this paper we consider the development of the package with the purpose of showing how air pollution data can be analysed in more insightful ways. Examples are provided of importing data from UK air pollution networks, source identification and characterisation using bivariate polar plots, quantitative trend estimates and the use of functions for model evaluation purposes. We demonstrate how air pollution data can be analysed quickly and efficiently and in an interactive way, freeing time to consider the problem at hand. One of the central themes of openair is the use of conditioning plots and analyses, which greatly enhance inference possibilities. Finally, some consideration is given to future developments. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper seeks to develop a deeper understanding of the research on climate change mitigation in transport. We suggest that work to date has focused on the effects of improvements in transport technologies, changes in the price of transport, physical infrastructure provision, behavioural change and alternative institutional arrangements for governing transport systems. In terms of research methodologies, positivist and quantitative analysis prevails, although there are signs of experimentation with non-positivist epistemologies and participatory methods. These particular engagements with climate change mitigation reflect mutually reinforcing tendencies within and beyond the academic transport community. We first draw on a revised version of Thomas Kuhn’s philosophy of science to explore the path dependencies within transport studies, which are at least partly responsible for the predisposition towards quantitative modelling and technology, pricing and infrastructure oriented interventions in transport systems. We then employ the governmentality perspective to examine how transport academics’ engagements with climate change mitigation depend on and align with more general understandings of climate change in UK society and beyond. The analysis makes clear that ecological modernisation and neo-liberal governmentality more generally provide the context for the current focus on and belief in technological, behaviour change, and especially market-based mitigation strategies. While current research trajectories are important and insightful, we believe that a deeper engagement with theoretical insights from the social sciences will produce richer understandings of transport mitigation in transport and briefly outline some of the contributions thinking on socio-technical transitions and practice theories can make. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In response to the EU Landfill Directive and the challenge of mitigating climate change, the UK government (nationally and locally) must develop strategies and policies to reduce, recycle, compost and recover waste. Best practice services that yield high recycling rates, such as alternate weekly collections, are now largely mainstream in suitable areas. However, national recycling performance is short of what is needed; policy makers must look for innovative ways to meet challenging recycling targets. Increasingly, local authorities are using behaviour change interventions to encourage the public to recycle; these tend to be based on the premise that an individuals’ behaviour is predetermined by their values. In practice, this has led to a host of initiatives that attempt to change individuals’ behaviour without addressing situational barriers. In this paper, we argue that that a behaviour-centric approach has limited effectiveness. Using an analysis of the literature and studies that investigated recycling participation in the city of Portsmouth, we have identified three significant clusters that can facilitate effective recycling: infrastructure, service and behaviour (ISB). We present the ISB model – a tool that can be used by waste practitioners when planning interventions to maximise recycling to better understand the situation and context for behaviour. Analysis using the ISB model suggests that current best practice, “business as usual” interventions could realistically achieve a national recycling rate of 50%. If the UK is to move towards zero waste, policy makers must look “upstream” for interventions that change the situational landscape. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The National Physical Laboratory has recently developed a traceable measuring instrument that uses a stylus probe to measure topography in three dimensions. This paper presents the uncertainty evaluation associated with the new instrument. A sound mathematical model has been developed to describe the instrument geometry and functionality. Based on this model the uncertainty associated with the point co-ordinate measurement has been evaluated using a Monte Carlo technique, similar to the “virtual CMM” method. A short description of the instrument is presented along with the mathematical model and uncertainty calculation results. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Summary: Understanding hydrological flow pathways is important for modelling stream response, in order to address a range of environmental problems such as flood prediction, prediction of chemical loads and identification of contaminant pathways for subsequent remediation. This paper describes the use of parametrically efficient, low order models to identify the dominant modes of stream response for catchments within the Upper Eden, UK. A first order linear model adequately identified the dominant mode in all but one of the sub-catchments. A consistent pattern of time constants and pure time delays between catchments was observed over different periods of data. In the nested catchments, time constants increased as the catchment size increased from 1.1km2 at Gais Gill (2–7h) to 69.4km2 at Kirkby Stephen (5–10h) to 223.4km2 at Great Musgrave (7–16h) to 616.4km2 at Temple Sowerby (11–22h), but Blind Beck (a small catchment 8.8km2, time constants 11–21h) had time constants most similar to Temple Sowerby. This was attributed to a combination of the storage role of permeable rock strata, where present, and the effect of scale on sub-surface and channel routing. A first order model could not be identified for the 1.0km2 Low Hall catchment, which comprises permeable sandstone overlain by Quaternary sediments. A second-order model of Low Hall stream showed a higher proportion of water taking a slower pathway (76% via a slow pathway; time constant 252h) than a model with the same structure for the 8.8km2 Blind Beck (46% via slow pathway; time constant 60h), where only 38% of the basin was underlain by the same permeable sandstone. This highlights the need to quantify the role of deep pathways through permeable rock, where present, in addition to the effect of catchment size on response times. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Numerous travel demand studies have been carried out over the past five decades, many of which produce estimates of the value of travel time. This includes a rich body of largely unpublished evidence, which can provide valuable insights into the impact of variables such as GDP, travel distance, purpose and mode on this critical parameter for transport modelling and appraisal. The work reported in this paper updates and extends our previous meta-analyses of UK values of time () by adding recent studies and widening the range of explanatory variables included. Our current research covers 226 studies carried out between 1960 and 2008, yielding a total of 1749 valuations (a 50% increase relative to our previous work) and making this the largest data set of its kind to the best of our knowledge. This is also the most comprehensive study to date of parameters other than in-vehicle time and includes valuations of walk, wait, headway, congested, free flow, late, departure time shift and search time. Exploratory analysis of the data set provides interesting insights into methodological trends in travel demand modelling. For each valuation, over thirty quantitative and categorical variables were recorded and then included in a multivariate regression model to explain variations in the value of time. A large number of statistically significant effects were obtained from this meta-analysis, some of which are in marked contrast with, or not present in, our previous work. One finding that stands out is that the estimated elasticity of the value of time with respect to GDP per capita is 0.9 and highly significant, a much closer correspondence to the widely used convention of a unit income elasticity over time than we have previously obtained. The ratio between walk and wait time and in-vehicle time was found to be substantially lower than the commonly used value of two. We also found large and significant differences between the results from studies based on different types of Stated Preference survey presentation. Other important effects include variations by mode used, mode valued, travel purpose, attribute type and distance. It is envisaged that the results are of direct relevance in the British context, as inputs to appraisal or for benchmarking, whilst the methodological implications are of broader interest and the results, in terms of time equivalents and variations in values of time, can be transferred to other contexts. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The Ozone Source–Receptor Model (OSRM) is a Lagrangian trajectory model developed to describe photochemical ozone production in the UK. The OSRM builds on existing boundary layer trajectory models used previously for assisting the development of UK ozone policy, but has a number of notable differences. A novel feature of the OSRM is a surface conversion module to represent the vertical gradient in ozone arising from chemical loss and deposition to the surface. This has significantly improved the performance of the model, especially in urban areas. In this paper, the modelling system is described and its performance against measured ozone concentrations and metrics and other UK ozone models is discussed. The model has been used to calculate future ozone concentrations in the UK and thus to assess a number of possible control measures developed for the UK Air Quality Strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The first national target for reducing road accident casualties in Great Britain was set in 1987, the target year being 2000. As the year 2000 approached, preparations were made for setting a subsequent target, the target year being 2010. A major part of the preparation consisted of forecasting the number of casualties that might be expected in 2010, conditional upon predictions about how the volume of road travel by the various transport modes might change and the type of new road safety measures that the Government might introduce. The forecasts provided the numerical context for the casualty reduction target that the Government announced in March 2000. This paper summarises the statistical analyses of accident data from 1983 to 1998 upon which the forecasts were based, and compares the approach with alternatives that have been adopted elsewhere. It also describes how progress towards the target has been monitored annually, allowing the Government to judge whether additional efforts might be needed to achieve the target. This examination of the actual data from 1999 to 2007 shows how far the original forecasts have proved to be successful. The improvement of car secondary safety over the past 15years has probably been the development that has had the most significant effect on the national casualty total. A statistical model is used to quantify this effect by analysis of accident data, and the results of the most recent analyses are included. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper describes the development and application of a method for estimating uncertainty in the prediction of sewer flow quantity and quality and how this may impact on the prediction of water quality failures in integrated catchment modelling (ICM) studies. The method is generic and readily adaptable for use with different flow quality prediction models that are used in ICM studies. Use is made of the elicitation concept, whereby expert knowledge combined with a limited amount of data are translated into probability distributions describing the level of uncertainty of various input and model variables. This type of approach can be used even if little or no site specific data is available. Integrated catchment modelling studies often use complex deterministic models. To apply the results of elicitation in a case study, a computational reduction method has been developed in order to determine levels of uncertainty in model outputs with a reasonably practical level of computational effort. This approach was applied to determine the level of uncertainty in the number of water quality failures predicted by an ICM study, due to uncertainty associated with input and model parameters of the urban drainage model component of the ICM. For a small case study catchment in the UK, it was shown that the predicted number of water quality failures in the receiving water could vary by around 45% of the number predicted without consideration of model uncertainty for dissolved oxygen and around 32% for unionised ammonia. It was concluded that the potential overall levels of uncertainty in the ICM outputs could be significant. Any solutions designed using modelling approaches that do not consider uncertainty associated with model input and model parameters may be significantly over-dimensioned or under-dimensioned. With changing external inputs, such as rainfall and river flows due to climate change, better accounting for uncertainty is required. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Traditionally, researchers have employed statistical methods to model crime. However, these approaches are limited by being unable to model individual actions and behaviour. Brantingham and Brantingham (1993) described that in their opinion a useful and productive model for simulating crime would have the ability to model the occurrence of crime and the motivations behind it both temporally and spatially. This paper presents the construction and application of an agent-based model (ABM) for simulating occurrences of residential burglary at an individual level. It presents a novel framework that allows both human and environmental factors to be simulated. Although other agent-based models of crime do exist, this research represents the first working example of integrating a behavioural framework into an ABM for the simulation of crime. An artificial city, loosely based on the real city of Leeds, UK, and an artificial population were constructed, and experiments were run to explore the potential of the model to realistically simulate the main processes and drivers within this system. The results are highly promising, demonstrating the potential of this approach for both understanding processes behind crime and improving policies and developing effective crime prevention strategies. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The concept of the water footprint has been recently introduced as an important indicator for human-induced water consumption. The water footprint is defined as the total volume of water used during production and consumption of goods and services as well as direct water consumption by humans. Water is not only consumed directly but also indirectly in production processes. Therefore, calculating the water footprint enables us to quantify total water consumed along the whole global supply chain. In this paper, we develop a regional input–output (IO) model extended by water consumption coefficients to quantify the respective domestic water footprint for different consumption categories for the South-East and North-East of England and the UK, i.e. the water consumed directly and indirectly along the regional supply chain. In addition, we calculate the total water footprints which include both domestic water consumption and the water required in other countries to produce goods and services imported and consumed in the region under investigation through applying a multi-regional input–output (MRIO) model. Both footprints also include households'' direct consumption of water. With regards to the two regions, we can observe a very pronounced regional disparity of regional (domestic and total) water footprints between the relatively water-scarce South-East and the water-rich North-East of England. We find that the domestic water footprint per capita in the South-East is 22% higher than the domestic water footprint per capita in the North-East. The key water consumers include Agriculture, Food Products, Electricity and Gas Production, and Hotel and Catering. The total water footprints per capita in the South-East (1257m3/year) are more than twice the ones in the North-East (597m3/year). The domestic water footprint focuses only on the supply chain effects and associated water consumption within the regional boundaries, which are usually of higher interest to policy makers and water companies concerned with the balance of supply and demand of water resources within their respective administrative boundaries or watersheds. The total water footprint allows assessing global effects and supports global supply chain management and is also introducing notions of fairness and equity in terms of resource consumption. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In this paper the meteorological processes responsible for transporting tracer during the second ETEX (European Tracer EXperiment) release are determined using the UK Met Office Unified Model (UM). The UM predicted distribution of tracer is also compared with observations from the ETEX campaign. The dominant meteorological process is a warm conveyor belt which transports large amounts of tracer away from the surface up to a height of 4 km over a 36 h period. Convection is also an important process, transporting tracer to heights of up to 8 km. Potential sources of error when using an operational numerical weather prediction model to forecast air quality are also investigated. These potential sources of error include model dynamics, model resolution and model physics. In the UM a semi-Lagrangian monotonic advection scheme is used with cubic polynomial interpolation. This can predict unrealistic negative values of tracer which are subsequently set to zero, and hence results in an overprediction of tracer concentrations. In order to conserve mass in the UM tracer simulations it was necessary to include a flux corrected transport method. Model resolution can also affect the accuracy of predicted tracer distributions. Low resolution simulations (50 km grid length) were unable to resolve a change in wind direction observed during ETEX 2, this led to an error in the transport direction and hence an error in tracer distribution. High resolution simulations (12 km grid length) captured the change in wind direction and hence produced a tracer distribution that compared better with the observations. The representation of convective mixing was found to have a large effect on the vertical transport of tracer. Turning off the convective mixing parameterisation in the UM significantly reduced the vertical transport of tracer. Finally, air quality forecasts were found to be sensitive to the timing of synoptic scale features. Errors in the position of the cold front relative to the tracer release location of only 1 h resulted in changes in the predicted tracer concentrations that were of the same order of magnitude as the absolute tracer concentrations. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper reports on the development of a model for assessing transitions to sustainable mobility. The model uses the concepts of transition theory as a framework for assessing possible pathways by which a transition to a sustainable mobility society might happen. The modelling approach combines agent-based modelling techniques with a system dynamics structure. It is original in that there are two levels of agent. There are a small number of complex agents, which have an internal structure and are therefore subsystems within society, and a larger number of simple agents. Based on the UK data, the results show that Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCVs) come to dominate, but only in the very long run (after 2030), while biofuels and ICE (Internal Combustion Engine)-electric hybrids are the main alternatives to the regime in the next 10–30 years, because a) they are already developed and b) they fit better into current infrastructures. The model shows that technological transitions are most likely. Lifestyle change transitions require sustained pressure from the environment on society and behavioural change from consumers. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Continuity and advocacy are widely held to be important elements in maternal healthcare, yet they are often lacking from the care women receive. In order to understand this disparity, we draw upon interviews and ethnographic observational findings from The One-to-One Caseload Project, a study exploring the impacts of a caseload model of maternity care within an urban National Health Service provider in Britain. Drawing on and theories of street-level bureaucracy, this paper attempts to understand how midwives, working on the frontline within caseload and standard care models, manage the competing demands of delivering a personalised service within a bureaucratic organisation. The caseload care model serves as a case study for how a client-centred model of working can assist street-level bureaucrats to manage the administrative pressures of public service organisations and provide their clients with a personalised, responsive service. Nevertheless, despite such benefits, client-centred models of working may have unintended consequences for both health carers and healthcare systems. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Introducing hydrogen as the fuel of the future necessitates a comprehensive, widespread supply chain network that is capable of producing, distributing, storing, and dispensing hydrogen to end users. Most of the early attempts to design and model the future hydrogen supply chain (HSC) were either limited to examining an individual component of the supply chain or focused on a predetermined hydrogen pathway. In these studies, a simulation-based approach has commonly been adopted rather than using a mathematical programming-based approach. The work presented here is an extension of an early attempt to design and operate a deterministic, steady-state HSC network using a mathematical modelling approach. In this paper, however, the model is developed to consider the availability of energy sources (i.e. raw materials) and their logistics, as well as the variation of hydrogen demand over a long-term planning horizon leading to phased infrastructure development. The proposed model is formulated as a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) and solved via a commercial software tool, GAMS. The results show that the optimal design of the future HSC network of Great Britain (GB) starts with small-size plant together with using the hydrogen currently produced by chemical processing plants. As demand grows, more plants of different sizes should be built to meet the demand. The hydrogen produced will be transported using liquid hydrogen trucks and stored in different sizes of storage facilities. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The UK government’s economy-wide 60% carbon dioxide reduction target by 2050 requires a paradigm shift in the whole energy system. Numerous analytical studies have concluded that the power sector is a critical contributor to a low carbon energy system, and electricity generation has dominated the policy discussion on UK decarbonisation scenarios. However, range of technical, social and market challenges, combined with alternate market investment strategies mean that large scale deployment of key classes of low carbon electricity technologies is fraught with uncertainty. The UK MARKAL energy systems model has been used to investigate these long-term uncertainties in key electricity generation options. A range of power sector specific parametric sensitivities have been performed under a ‘what-if’ framework to provide a systematic exploration of least-cost energy system configurations under a broad, integrated set of input assumptions. In this paper results of six sensitivities, via restricted investments in key low carbon technologies to reflect their technical and political uncertainties, and an alternate investment strategies from perceived risk and other barriers, have been presented. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper applies the event analysis for systemic teamwork (EAST) method to an example of military command and control. EAST offers a way to describe system level emergent properties that arise from the complex interactions of system components (human and technical). These are described using an integrated methods approach and modelled using Task, Social and Propositional networks. The current article is divided into three parts: a brief description of the military command and control context, a brief description of the EAST method, and a more in depth presentation of the analysis outcomes. The emergent properties of the military scenario relate to the degree of system reconfigurability, systems level situational awareness and the role of mediating technology. The findings are compared with similar analyses undertaken in civilian domains, in which the latest developments in command and control, under the aegis of Network Enabled Capability (NEC), are already in place. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper presents a socio-economically disaggregated framework for attributing CO2 emissions to people's high level functional needs. Based around a quasi-multi-regional input–output (QMRIO) model, the study, in theory, takes into account all CO2 emissions that arise from energy used in production of goods and services to satisfy UK household demand, whether the emissions occur in the UK or abroad. Results show that CO2 emissions attributable to households were 15% above 1990 levels in 2004, and that although absolute decoupling occurred between household expenditure and CO2 during the UK's switch from coal to gas in the early 1990s, since then only slight relative decoupling is evident. The proportion of CO2 that arises outside UK borders in support of UK consumption is rising, and reducing these emissions is particularly problematic in a global trading system. Investigation into the carbon footprint of different segments of the UK population shows wide variation: the segment with the highest carbon footprint emits 64% more CO2 than the segment with the lowest. Results show that recreation and leisure are responsible for over one quarter of CO2 emissions in a typical UK household in 2004. We conclude that expanding lifestyle aspirations are significant factors in driving household CO2 emissions, but the study also emphasizes that attention must be paid to the infrastructures and institutions that result in considerable amounts of CO2 being locked up in basic household activities through which people meet their everyday needs for subsistence, protection, and communication with family and friends. The findings highlight the sheer scale of the challenge facing UK policy-makers, and suggest that policies should be targeted towards segments of society responsible for the highest carbon footprints. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

CORINAIR atmospheric emission inventories are frequently used input data for air quality models with a domain situated in Europe. In CORINAIR emission inventories, sources are broken down over 11 major source categories. This paper presents spatial surrogates for the disaggregation of CORINAIR atmospheric emission inventories for input of air pollutants and particulate matter to grid or polygon based air quality model domains inside Europe. The basis for the disaggregation model was the CLC2000 land cover data to which statistical weights were added. Weights were population census data for residential emissions, employment statistics for agricultural and industrial area emissions, livestock statistics for ammonia emissions and annual aircraft movements for emissions realized by air transport. Additional road and off-road network information was used to disaggregate emissions realized by traffic. A comparison of top down produced emission estimates with spatially resolved national emission data for The Netherlands and the United Kingdom gave confidence in the present spatial surrogates as a tool for the top down production of atmospheric emission maps. Explained variance at a spatial resolution of 5km was >70% for CO, NMVOC and NO x , >60% for PM10 and almost 50% for SO2. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The present paper investigates the cyclical nature of Consumer Sentiments Indices (CSIs) for the US and UK. Using Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) models the empirical analysis indicates that the US CSI is mean reverting but adjusts asymmetrically and downwardly rigid. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Classical approaches to estimating the rate of occurrence of events perform poorly when data are few. Maximum likelihood estimators result in overly optimistic point estimates of zero for situations where there have been no events. Alternative empirical-based approaches have been proposed based on median estimators or non-informative prior distributions. While these alternatives offer an improvement over point estimates of zero, they can be overly conservative. Empirical Bayes procedures offer an unbiased approach through pooling data across different hazards to support stronger statistical inference. This paper considers the application of Empirical Bayes to high consequence low-frequency events, where estimates are required for risk mitigation decision support such as as low as reasonably possible. A summary of empirical Bayes methods is given and the choices of estimation procedures to obtain interval estimates are discussed. The approaches illustrated within the case study are based on the estimation of the rate of occurrence of train derailments within the UK. The usefulness of empirical Bayes within this context is discussed. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper reports on the findings of a study to derive a preference-based measure of health from the SF-36 for use in economic evaluation. The SF-36 was revised into a six-dimensional health state classification called the SF-6D. A sample of 249 states defined by the SF-6D have been valued by a representative sample of 611 members of the UK general population, using standard gamble. Models are estimated for predicting health state valuations for all 18,000 states defined by the SF-6D. The econometric modelling had to cope with the hierarchical nature of the data and its skewed distribution. The recommended models have produced significant coefficients for levels of the SF-6D, which are robust across model specification. However, there are concerns with some inconsistent estimates and over prediction of the value of the poorest health states. These problems must be weighed against the rich descriptive ability of the SF-6D, and the potential application of these models to existing and future SF-36 data set. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The widening health gap between the best and worst-off in the UK requires innovative solutions that act upon the social, economic and environmental causes of ill-health. Initiatives such as microcredit have been conceptualised as having the potential to act on the social determinants of health. However, pathways that lead to this impact have yet to be empirically explored. People living on low incomes, who are financially-excluded, require access to credit to cope with everyday financial needs. While research shows the connections between debt and health, this link is often focused on over-indebtedness and negative health outcomes. In this paper, we investigate the impact of responsibly-delivered credit on the health and wellbeing of borrowers. In 2016-17, in-depth, semi-structured interviews were undertaken with fourteen borrowers from two microcredit providers offering personal and business microloans, operating in Glasgow, United Kingdom. Findings are presented, using social determinants of health as an analytic lens, and illustrated in a conceptual model explaining the loan mechanisms and pathways connecting microcredit to health and wellbeing. Microcredit, and the mechanisms through which it is delivered, were perceived by participants as positively impacting on their health and wellbeing. Access to flexible, responsibly-delivered, microloans enabled participants to plan and feel secure when faced with (un)expected financial events, reducing the associated stress, sustaining social relationships and empowering borrowers to take greater control over their lives. For some, receiving microcredit was stressful, as it is still a debt that needs to be repaid. Such stress can also be exacerbated by particular aspects of the lending model; for example, group lending. Our results contribute to growing evidence on the impact of financial inclusion approaches on health and wellbeing, highlighting the potential role of microcredit as a public health initiative and the need to support 'alternative' economic spaces in the UK to serve the financially-excluded. • Responsibly delivered credit can positively impact borrowers' health and wellbeing. • Some aspects of group lending could negatively affect borrowers' wellbeing. • Microcredit has the potential to act as a public health initiative. • There is a need to invest in alternative economic spaces in the UK. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]