Search

The adoption of renewable energy resources is in the core of energy transition. However, its implementation can be highly impacted by country policies. A limited number of researches investigated solar photovoltaic investments, comparing net-metering rules for distinctive energy consumption levels and different discounted rates, from the investors' point of view. This paper analyzes the impact of Brazilian net-metering rules on solar photovoltaic investments, considering residential scale. The methodology contemplates the development of a Discounted Cash Flow model to calculate Discounted Payback (DP), Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) of projects. The case studies consider the impact of Brazilian regulation from net-metering rules (previous, considered, and current), energy consumption levels (Low, Middle, and High), and discount rates (5 %, 10 %, 15 %, and 20 %). The results show that from the previous to current rule the return for investor, on average, decreased 5.77 %. However, this reduction would be of 12.81 % if considered rule was adopted. For the 36 studies carried out, even in the worst case the investments remain viable. Therefore, the existing policy is suitable for the current stage of sector development; minimizing the impacts for energy tariff, distribution companies, consumers, and prosumers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Valorizing wet wastes to sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) can be achieved through sequential arrested anaerobic digestion (AAD) to volatile fatty acids (VFAs) and thermochemical catalytic upgrading. Alternatively, conventional anaerobic digestion (AD) can use wet waste to produce biogas (for electricity generation), biomethane, or green hydrogen. To assess the VFA-SAF pathway, we conducted a comprehensive techno-economic analysis (TEA) of each approach using Aspen Plus and discounted cash flow models, coupled with life cycle assessment (LCA) to estimate fuel carbon intensity (CI) and evaluate the implications of policy incentives for carbon emissions reduction. First, we calculated the minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) required to meet a 10 % internal rate of return (IRR) for each product without policy incentives. In this scenario, all pathways faced challenges in meeting the market values of equivalent fossil-based products. Next, we examined projected costs for alternative sustainable technologies and found that SAF and biomethane from wet waste were competitive, while electricity and hydrogen costs were significantly higher. Finally, we incorporated current policy incentives; with incentives, all pathways exceeded a 10 % IRR using fossil-equivalent selling prices. Among all the options considered, VFA-SAF produced the most profitable carbon-negative fuel that was economically competitive with alternative sustainable technologies. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Subjective real option valuation uses same data inputs as traditional DCF analysis. • The value of delay stems from the investor's subjective views about risk premia. • Cost and revenue uncertainties have complex effects on the option value. • Hedging systematic risk can reduce the value of delaying investment. • The option value may increase or decrease with idiosyncratic, un-hedgeable risk. [Display omitted] We model investor heterogeneity using different required returns on an investment and evaluate the impact on the valuation of an investment. By assuming no disagreement on the cash flows, we emphasize how risk preferences in particular, but also the costs of capital, influence a subjective evaluation of the decision to invest now or retain the option to invest in future. We propose a risk-adjusted valuation model to facilitate investors' subjective decision making, in response to the market valuation of an investment opportunity. The investor's subjective assessment arises from their perceived misvaluation of the investment by the market, so projected cash flows are discounted using two different rates representing the investor's and the market's view. This liberates our model from perfect or imperfect hedging assumptions and instead, we are able to illustrate the hedging effect on the real option value when perceptions of risk premia diverge. During crises periods, delaying an investment becomes more valuable as the idiosyncratic risk of future cash flows increases, but the decision-maker may rush to invest too quickly when the risk level is exceptionally high. Our model verifies features established by classical real-option valuation models and provides many new insights about the importance of modelling divergences in decision-makers risk premia, especially during crisis periods. It also has many practical advantages because it requires no more parameter inputs than basic discounted cash flow approaches, such as the marketed asset disclaimer method, but the outputs are much richer. They allow for complex interactions between cost and revenue uncertainties as well as an easy exploration of the effects of hedgeable and un-hedgeable risks on the real option value. Furthermore, we provide fully-adjustable Python code in which all parameter values can be chosen by the user. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hydrogen is a prominent clean fuel option for combatting global warming and producing low-emission, ecologically friendly electricity. Consequently, the proton exchange membrane water electrolysis (PEMWE) hydrogen refueling station has undergone thorough economic and environmental analysis. This work intends to fill the gap by presenting the influence of various operating circumstances and design parameters on the economic and environmental aspects of PEMWE based on various behaviors and features (I–V curve) under various scenarios. Profitability analysis (PA) is performed in terms of the net present value (NPV), discounted payback period (DPBP), benefit-cost ratio (BCR), and internal rate of return (IRR) from cumulative discounted cash flow diagrams (CFD). Also, sensitivity analysis (SA) is conducted to assess the impact of different economic factors, while simultaneously establishing CO 2 footprint guidelines for optimal operating and design conditions. The findings highlight that enhancing economic feasibility and reducing environmental concerns are simultaneously achievable by increasing cathode pressure, operating temperature, and decreasing membrane thickness. At membrane thicknesses over 100 μm, the project becomes unprofitable and inefficient at 1.85 V. PEMWE becomes more valuable and sustainable with a current density of 12,000 A/m2 or higher, but it releases more CO 2 emissions. Hence, utilizing excess renewable electricity in PEMWE addresses environmental concerns and enhances the overall ecological sustainability of hydrogen production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The general problem of developing profitability optima is considered at the conceptual level for chemical process designs. • Industrial estimates often employ IRR (Internal Rate of Return) to measure profitability, with a "traditional" hurdle rate to specify the required IRR (ROI). • The NPV % measure provides a more effective basis. Its parameters are adjustable to match the process, the financial environment, and profitability requirements. • Viewing long-term profitability (NPV project), short-term risk [(NPV %)−1] and total capital invested (TI), the first should be maximized ... the last two, minimized or at least subject to bounds. • A new graphical method, with NPV % plotted versus NPV project , couples the three objectives, thus avoiding a Pareto-style optimization with its arbitrary weightings. • The optimum design is at the point of diminishing returns for LT profitability. Any lower value of TI reduces max (NPV project); any larger value isn't fully recovered. Recent fundamental work with discounted cash flow methods shows that an alternative metric for evaluating profitability and risk, one different from Internal Rate of Return (IRR) —namely the annualized and non-dimensionalized Net Present Value (NPV %)— can make evaluating project profitability easier yet more informative. It provides a simple and transparent strategy to optimize a design's key financial dependent variables (capital investment, profitability, risk). 1 1 Model form was originally referred to as "inside-out," but is now called "exo-parametric," i.e., switching from the vernacular to a more scientific and widely-used terminology (Mellichamp, 2018). Both traditional and exo-parametric modeling methods developed by the author are linked to this metric, providing an efficient and precise mechanism to organize and carry out the financial/optimization search procedures in process design. Design engineers want to know what is the optimum size of investment (TI) that meets projected market conditions? What is the expected long-term (NPV) return? What metric can be used to maximize them, consistent with the need to recover capital as quickly as reasonably possible (i.e., to bound the "short-term risk")? The proposed approach answers all three questions simultaneously, with a precise min-max solution obtained transparently. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Design of an integrated catalytic deoxygenation and hydrothermal gasification was performed. • Using experimental data, a high-fidelity process model was created with Aspen Plus. • Exergy analysis results showed that the deoxygenation reactor's exergy efficiencies are superior. • Equipment and raw material costs have superior effect influences on economic viability. Several technologies have been developed to produce sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), the hydroprocessing of esters and fatty acids (HEFA) representing one of the most mature pathways. Although HEFA has been widely adopted by industry, this pathway is mainly reliant on the hydrodeoxygenation (HDO) reaction, which requires large amounts and high pressures of hydrogen gas that reduces the cost-effectiveness of the process. In this study, the economic, environmental, and exergy analyses of two alternative scenarios for the catalytic production of SAF were considered. In both scenarios, SAF is produced through the catalytic deoxygenation of tall oil fatty acid (TOFA) via decarboxylation/decarbonylation (deCO x) – an approach requiring smaller amounts and lower pressures of hydrogen, feedstocks of lower purity and cost, and simpler supported metal catalysts relative to HDO. The material and energy balance was calculated using Aspen Plus process simulation software. Scenario 1 comprises a plant in which the catalytic deoxygenation of TOFA via deCO x is performed using hydrogen gas obtained commercially, while scenario 2 integrates catalytic deoxygenation with a plant that produces hydrogen gas via hydrothermal gasification. The study revealed that both scenarios were economically feasible relative to other pathways for SAF production, with the minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) of scenario 2 (USD$ 0.39/L) being lower than that of scenario 1 (USD$ 0.62/L). In addition to being the most economically viable, scenario 2 was also found to be preferable from an environmental standpoint since it also shows a lower global warming potential (GWP). Discounted cash flow analysis (DCFA) was used to determine other economic indicators such as net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), net rate of return (NRR) and payback period (PBP), which was estimated to be approximately 3 years for both scenarios. Finally, sensitivity analysis confirms that the raw materials and equipment purchase costs have the greatest impact on the MFSP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The main purpose of this paper is to propose a fuzzy approach for investment project valuation in uncertain environments from the aspect of real options. The traditional approaches to project valuation are based on discounted cash flows (DCF) analysis which provides measures like net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR). However, DCF-based approaches exhibit two major pitfalls. One is that DCF parameters such as cash flows cannot be estimated precisely in the uncertain decision making environments. The other one is that the values of managerial flexibilities in investment projects cannot be exactly revealed through DCF analysis. Both of them would entail improper results on strategic investment projects valuation. Therefore, this paper proposes a fuzzy binomial approach that can be used in project valuation under uncertainty. The proposed approach also reveals the value of flexibilities embedded in the project. Furthermore, this paper provides a method to compute the mean value of a project’s fuzzy expanded NPV that represents the entire value of project. Finally, we use the approach to practically evaluate a project. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• The state of São Paulo offers ten potential scenarios for the establishment of biorefineries. • Eucalyptus residues are a promising feedstock that produces 71,000 tons of bio-oil/year. • The minimum selling price of bio-oil varies according to plant capacities between from $11.6 to 19.3/GJ. • The minimum selling price of bio-oil is particularly sensitive to plant capacity and yield. • Co-processing bio-oil with vacuum gasoil can contribute 3.4 % of total "green fuel" in Brazil. Forestry residue is potentially useful for obtaining bio-oil and its by-products (biochar, syngas, and acid-rich aqueous extract) via fast pyrolysis. As such, we carried out a techno-economic analysis of both the production of bio-oil from Eucalyptus grandis residues (ER) and their availability in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. Discounted cash flow was used to calculate the minimum selling price (MSP) of bio-oil. Georeferencing identified the location of 20 Eucalyptus plantations, ten of which were selected due to their better economic performance. These ten plantations were potentially able to produce 59 million L/year of bio-oil. The economic analysis of the future biorefineries showed that an MSP of 11.6–19.3 $ (US)/GJ could support the processing of 60,000–5,000 tons/year of ER. A simulation of a large biorefinery revealed a capital investment (CAPEX) of around 6 M$ (US), reaching an operating expenditure peak of approximately 3 M$/year. The sensitivity analysis identified that plant capacity had the most significant impact on MSP, while the by-products (acid extract and biochar) lowered this by 22 %. The large biorefinery simulated using the Monte Carlo method had an 80 % chance of reaching a net present value (NPV) > 0, and an 80 % probability of reaching an internal rate of return (IRR) > 10 %. This study demonstrated that the production of bio-oils by the ten simulated centralized biorefineries is economically viable based on the NPV and IRR indicators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Hydrothermal carbonization can readily convert paunch waste to value-added products. • Process modelling indicates that pre-heater and dryer are the main energy consumer. • Hydrothermal carbonization technology development is challenged by reactor high cost. • Treating dewatered paunch waste is more commercially viable despite lower conversion. • Economic viability is highly sensitive to LHSV of reactor and economic assumptions. In this study, dewatered and raw paunch waste, with 15 and 3 wt% total solids respectively, generated at abattoirs was hydrothermally carbonised under subcritical water conditions. Higher solids content was found to produce higher hydrochar yield (i.e. 53% for 15 wt% compared to 33.5% for 3 wt%) at similar operating conditions of 10 bar and 240 °C for 5 min. The morphological differences were noted via Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) in the hydrochar samples, and the surface area for processing raw paunch waste was found to be 68.1 m2 g−1 compared to 10.8 m2 g−1 in case of dewatered paunch waste. The light bio-oil was mostly composed of phenolic compounds while the heavy bio-oil mainly contained long chain fatty acids and their esters. Following the experimental work, a full-scale ASPEN Plus process model was developed for a typical abattoir generating 27 tonne dry paunch waste per day. Pre-heater and hydrochar dryer contributed to 73% and 57% of the total energy for processing raw and dewatered paunch waste, respectively, because of the high moisture content of the feedstock and hydrochar. After the equipment sizing and estimation of capital and operating costs, the discounted cash flow analysis was performed using the Nth-Plant financing assumptions. It was concluded that treating dewatered paunch waste is preferable as it: needed a smaller reactor i.e. lower overall initial investment, was less sensitive to bio-oil price, and improved the net present value over a period of 30 years to $2.8 MM. Besides the liquid hourly speed velocity, its commercial viability is highly sensitive to internal rate of return and existence of hydrochar dryer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lignocellulose biorefineries process biomass into 'green' chemicals and bioenergy and play a key role in sustainable bio-economies. Using sugarcane bagasse and trash feedstocks, biorefineries were simulated in Aspen Plus ® v 8.6 to generate mass and energy balances. Four scenarios with electricity and furfural as common products were generated. Scenario A in addition produced high volume, low value levulinic acid whilst scenarios B1 and B2 generated low volume, high value levulinic acid at varied feedstock capacities. Scenario C produced low volume, high value levulinic acid and bulk gamma valerolactone. The four biorefineries were also compared to a combined heat and power plant that only produced steam and electricity. Aspen Plus ® Economic Analyser and a discounted cash flow rate of return methodology were used to determine the economic feasibility of the bioenergy self-sufficient biorefineries annexed to a conventional South African sugar mill. Levulinic acid production via the Biofine process makes economic sense when produced for niche markets, due to the anticipated decrease in market prices when production volumes increase. Scenario (C) co-producing a low volume of levulinic acid (0.15 t h−1) together with 3.3 t h−1 furfural, electricity (14 MWh) and 6.8 t h−1 gamma valerolactone, was the most profitable. It attained an internal rate of return of 23% and 253 US$ million net present value at a 9.7% hurdle rate by matching chemicals' production volumes to market demands, to maintain high market prices for multiple revenue streams. • Techno-economics of lignocellulose biorefineries via chemical means were assessed. • Economies of scale effects and extra returns from multiple products raised profits. • Scenario with specialty levulinic acid and bulk gamma valerolactone was profitable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Residential solar photovoltaic (PV) installations have boomed in China over recent years. However, knowledge about the economic performance of residential PV investments is still limited. Therefore, this study attempts to make a complete economic assessment of residential PV systems at the county-level. After a brief description of China's incentive policies, a model is constructed with economic measures of internal rate of return and payback period based on discounted cash flow. Then, a reference PV system of 5 kW p is investigated in 2181 geographical areas using scenario analysis and sensitivity analysis. There is breakeven for residential PV investments all over China even without incentives. The areas with good performance of residential PV investments are located mostly in Northern China (Shandong and Hebei), Southern China (Guangdong and Hainan), northeast China (Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang), and southwest China (Sichuan and Tibet). The boom of residential PV installations is likely to recede in 2021 as the population with acceptable profitability declines since the central and local subsidies expire. But some excellent residential PV suppliers have the potential to compensate for the performance decrease in many ways such as increasing annual generation and reducing initial cost. This paper contributes by providing some insights into the economic performance and market of residential PV installations in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]