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Air pollution control policies in China have been experiencing profound changes, highlighting a strategic transformation from total pollutant emission control to air quality improvement, along with the shifting targets starting from acid rain and NO x emissions to PM 2.5 pollution, and then the emerging O 3 challenges. The marvelous achievements have been made with the dramatic decrease of SO 2 emission and fundamental improvement of PM 2.5 concentration. Despite these achievements, China has proposed Beautiful China target through 2035 and the goal of 2030 carbon peak and 2060 carbon neutrality, which impose stricter requirements on air quality and synergistic mitigation with Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions. Against this background, an integrated multi-objective and multi-benefit roadmap is required to provide decision support for China's long-term air quality improvement strategy. This paper systematically reviews the technical system for developing the air quality improvement roadmap, which was integrated from the research output of China's National Key R&D Program for Research on Atmospheric Pollution Factors and Control Technologies (hereafter Special NKP), covering mid- and long-term air quality target setting techniques, quantitative analysis techniques for emission reduction targets corresponding to air quality targets, and pathway optimization techniques for realizing reduction targets. The experience and lessons derived from the reviews have implications for the reformation of China's air quality improvement roadmap in facing challenges of synergistic mitigation of PM 2.5 and O 3 , and the coupling with climate change mitigation. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since 2019, China has emerged as a leading proponent of nature-based solutions (NbS) to improve global environmental management. These solutions – from regrowing forests to restoring wetlands to regenerating agricultural soils to greening cities – can, at least in theory, simultaneously reduce greenhouse gas emissions, protect biodiversity, and enhance community wellbeing and resilience. For some advocates, nature-based solutions also entail a radical rethinking of how humans should be interacting with nature, requiring new responsibilities, rights, and governance mechanisms. This article explains how and why China has been promoting NbS in multilateral and domestic policy settings. By analyzing the content of English- and Chinese-language policy briefings, diplomatic remarks, and government documents from 2019 to mid-2021, it reveals that China's NbS goals and actions differ significantly in domestic and international settings. Internationally, Chinese policymakers have been reframing the country's pre-existing large-scale afforestation, green financing, disaster risk reduction, and ecotourism projects as NbS, broadly defined. In multilateral forums, meanwhile, Chinese diplomats and practitioners are promoting NbS as an umbrella term to enhance the legitimacy of domestic projects now labelled as NbS, project an image of climate action and global environmental leadership, and increase China's discursive power within global environmental governance. China's embrace of NbS, as this article reveals, has far-reaching consequences for the future of nature-based solutions within multilateral climate and biodiversity governance, with the potential to turn NbS into a diplomatic and rhetorical tool to portray conventional approaches to environmental management as innovative, nature-positive solutions. • Internationally, China is reframing pre-existing policies as nature-based solutions (NbS). • What China is labelling NbS includes large-scale afforestation, green financing, flood controls, and ecotourism projects. • Internationally, China is advocating for NbS to enhance its image and soft power. • China's NbS discourse is mainly aimed at an international audience, with domestic policy and rhetoric largely unchanged. • China's NbS leadership could further mainstream NbS discourses in multilateral forums, but hinder meaningful implementation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon neutrality strategies have a significant role in climate mitigation efforts. As global concerns regarding climate change continue to increase, achieving carbon neutrality has emerged as a paramount objective for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and limiting the adverse impacts of anthropogenic activities on the environment. This research investigates a wide range of scholarly works to conduct an in-depth analysis and synthesis of the relevant information about carbon neutrality strategies. The review introduces carbon neutrality principles and terminologies, highlighting their importance in climate mitigation. It then proceeds to explore the wide range of strategies employed across different sectors and industries, investigating their effectiveness, scalability, and potential challenges. A multidimensional analysis contrasts the United States Nationally Determined Contributions pathway 2023, China's Nationally Determined contributions 2023, and the EU Directive 2023/2413, assessing their economic, environmental, political, and social impacts. The study evaluates strategies' effectiveness, scalability, and innovation for transitioning to a sustainable, low-carbon future. It fills a gap by analyzing global approaches across the US, China, and the EU, which account for about 50% of the world's total GHG emissions. It evaluates the novel application of diverse strategies, from renewable energy transitions to innovative policy measures, highlighting their potential to mitigate climate change effectively. By providing a multidimensional analysis of these strategies' impacts, the research not only enhances understanding of effective carbon neutrality tactics but also underscores the importance of international cooperation in realizing a sustainable, low-carbon future. • Identifies and analyzes carbon neutrality strategies, emphasizing the need for diverse US, Chinese, and EU approaches. • Evaluate renewable energy, carbon capture, and policy tools for carbon reduction effectiveness, scalability, and innovation. • Highlights the study's novelty in synthesizing current knowledge on carbon neutrality, addressing a significant research gap. • Concludes with strategic ideas for international collaboration and policy development for low-carbon futures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China has made substantial investment in agricultural research and development (R&D) to promote technological change (TC). Although the role of TC in enhancing agricultural production and mitigating environmental impacts is widely recognized in separate contexts, knowledge about its' effects on food security and the environment, especially with a focus on China, is still lacking. This study uses an agro-economic optimization model to assess the impact of TC on food security and climate change mitigation. Our results indicate that TC plays an important role in improving agricultural productivity, which, in turn, contributes to a comparative advantage in agricultural trade. It also strengthens food security through lowering food prices. By contrast, a higher TC level increases greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, albeit marginally, due to higher agricultural production for exports. This indicates a rebound effect of agricultural productivity on GHG emissions. Therefore, additional efforts are required in China to improve food security without compromising GHG mitigation. • Technological change (TC) enhances China's agricultural production and comparative advantage in trade. • A higher level of TC within China's agriculture and land-use (AFOLU) sectors could contribute to lowering food prices in China. • Increase in TC within China's AFOLU sectors can causes trade-offs between food security and climate change mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon emission reduction in China matters to global climate change mitigation. China has been experiencing extensive land changes, which profoundly influence terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage (TECS) and carbon emissions. Scholars have predicted influences of land changes on TECS in China with scenarios obtained from global integrated assessment models (IAMs), which lack national details. Moreover, universally existing variations in land-use intensity have not been considered when estimating influences on TECS. This study simulated changes of land-use intensity of China from 2000 to 2050 using CLUMondo under China-specified policies for sustainable development modeled by a national IAM named Threshold21-China. We proposed a more precise TECS estimation method by distinguishing land-vegetation and land-soil types. Results demonstrated that under scenario with preceding policies, the total TECS can increase by 865.5 Tg C from 2000 to 2050. Through implementing preceding policies, TECS loss by conversions from cultivated land to artificial surfaces can decline by 82 Tg C, and new TECS accumulated by increased and densified forests can increase by 73 Tg C. Mountainous and rapidly urbanizing regions are sensitively influenced and need more restrict land change management policies. This study demonstrates the significance of sustainable development policies for TECS conservation and indicates specific critical regions. • Introducing national IAM into land change simulation. • Considering land-use intensities in land change simulation. • Proposing an improved TECS estimation method. • Estimating influences of land changes on China's TECS. • TECS accumulation could be improved under sustainable policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to study the decoupling status and mitigation potential of CO2 emissions from China's transport sector over the period 1991–2015. Firstly, this paper utilizes the Log-Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) technique to identify influencing factors, which govern CO2 emissions from China's transport sector. Over the study period, the CO2 coefficient effect (Δ C c f t ) was the main factor for decreasing CO2 emissions. However, the economic growth effect (Δ C g t ) was the main factor for increasing CO2 emissions. Then, the decoupling indicator is also constructed based on the above influencing factors, which can be utilized to reflect the dependence degree of economic development on CO2 emissions from China's transport sector. During 1991–2015, the CO2 emissions from China's transport sector presented expansive coupling (EC) with economic development. Weak decoupling (WD) only appeared in the sub-period 1991–1995. The CO 2 emissions only presented 3 decoupling grades in all sub-period and the period 1991–2015: Ⅱ, Ⅲ, and Ⅳ. Furthermore, the above influencing factors are also used to establish a theoretical mitigation model, which is used to reflect the mitigation potential of CO2 emissions from China's transport sector. Finally, the occurrence of CO2 mitigation only appeared in 3 sub-periods: 1991–1995, 2005–2010, and 2010–2015. • The LMDI technique is used to identify influencing factors. • The decoupling indicator is constructed based on the influencing factors. • The influencing factors are used to establish a theoretical mitigation model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We quantified wood substitution benefits in the furniture sector for China. • Displacement factor is used to assess substitution effects on emission reduction. • The avoided emissions for the products were weighted by consumption statistics. • Each tC in wood used for material substitution reduces 1.46 tC of emissions. Wood and wood-based products have positive effects on climate change mitigation. These products can substitute for energy-intensive products made of conventional materials. The main objective of this study was to quantify substitution benefits of wood furniture for China via national-scale mitigation analyses. We selected a basket of representative furniture and estimated the emission reduction for two functionally equivalent products, which differentiate in wood intensity. The emissions avoided in each type of product were weighted by its share of the furniture market to ensure that the basket can represent the current situation. Then, avoided emissions were estimated for wood commodities contained in the products basket. Results demonstrated that wood materials exerted low environmental impacts. From the less to the more wood intensity products with the equivalent function, the proportion of energy-intensive materials decreased 24% while the proportion of their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions decreased 34%. The overall displacement factor for the wood material was 2.67 kg CO 2 eq/kg or 1.46 tC/tC. The findings highlight the importance of material selection in mitigating climate change in the furniture sector. It is urgent to use of the existing timber resources efficiently and pursue alternative schemes for emission reduction to achieve the goal of GHG mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Public interest in climate change topics is affected by extreme temperatures. • There is however clear disparity in types of climate knowledge sought by the public. • Due to self-protective reasons, interest is highest for climate adaptation topics. • Extreme temperatures do not induce similar interest on mitigation topics. • Projected climate change will likely cause adaptation to overshadow mitigation. Many earlier studies concluded that exposure to changes in local weather or extreme weather events prompt public interest in climate change, and in turn raise support for mitigation policies. However, these findings do not square with observations of record-breaking temperatures, and decades of failure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. To address this conundrum, we use Protection Motivation Theory to form hypotheses on the specific type of climate change-related information that individuals seek during periods of extreme local weather. Using daily-level internet search engine data from Chinese cities, we find that residents are purposeful and rational in seeking information on climate change. Specifically, when faced with high or abnormal temperatures, they are much more likely to seek information to appraise their susceptibility to climate change threats, and evaluate coping responses. On the other hand, due to the lack of direct benefits, they do not seek out information on climate mitigation behaviors. In contrast to earlier studies, our findings suggest that it is unlikely that extreme weather events will prompt support for climate mitigation actions. Instead, as worldwide weather becomes more extreme and unpredictable, it is likely that public's attention will shift in the direction of adaptation measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Petroleum coke, a non-environmentally friendly energy source, is gradually replacing other power fuels in China’s industrial enterprises because of its price advantage. Petroleum coke has high emission factors and thus emits more greenhouse gases (GHGs) and air pollutants than even raw coal. This study first examines the rapid growth of petroleum coke consumption in China since 2010 by industry sector and region and then estimates the petroleum coke-related emissions. We conclude that the total consumption of petroleum coke increased by 18.9% from 2010 to 2016 and that the industry final consumption for burning in boilers increased dramatically (by 158.2%). Petroleum coke-related CO 2 emissions reached 28 million tonnes in 2016, whereas CH 4 and N 2 O emissions totaled 870 and 143 tonnes, respectively. The increased use of petroleum coke will increase the urgency for the development of climate change mitigation and emissions reduction measures in China. We propose several possible policy suggestions for petroleum coke management and emissions control, such as strongly restricting the production and import of high-sulphur petroleum coke, as well as burning petroleum coke to provide power; more power plants and industrial kiln stoves/boilers should be equipped with efficient decontamination systems; the development of advanced industrial processes and the clean utilization of petroleum coke should be encouraged. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ambitious goals to limit global warming can only be reached with a broad acceptance and participation of the general public. This paper relies on surveys among citizens in China, Germany and the U.S. and investigates the determinants of the acceptance of national and international adaptation and mitigation efforts. The empirical findings indicate that specific beliefs and environmental awareness are important drivers in all three countries, while political attitudes and socio-economic characteristics are the main sources of cross-country heterogeneity. The study thereby points at important starting points and target groups for raising the acceptance of national and international climate policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While feeding 20% of global population, China's agriculture is a large greenhouse gas (GHG) emitter, posing a major challenge to the country's carbon neutrality target. However, the pathways of agriculture towards carbon neutrality remain unclear. To address this knowledge gap, we conduct a comprehensive life-cycle assessment and show that valorization of sustainable biomass wastes (crop residues, forest residues, livestock manure, food waste, and sewage sludge) into biochar can contribute importantly towards agricultural carbon neutrality in China. The maximum potential of biochar production from these waste resources in 2018 is 145 Mt yr−1 with a corresponding GHG mitigation potential of 455.7 (405.5–572.4) Mt CO 2 -eq yr−1. This can fully offset the total CH 4 and N 2 O emissions from China's croplands (∼400 Mt CO 2 -eq yr−1), which are difficult to be entirely eliminated due to rice paddy irrigation and intensive use of fertilizers. Distribution of biomass waste varies across regions, and at the national level , crop residues (48.8%) and livestock manure (25.4%) and food waste (15.6%) are the main sources of biochar feedstocks and should be prioritized in biochar development. Forest residues have a marginal contribution due to competing uses from other sectors, and sewage sludge derived biochar is a net source of GHG emissions due to the large energy consumption required for sludge drying. The total GHG mitigation potential of biochar is greatly affected by pyrolysis temperature and the highest mitigation effect is observed under 300–500 °C. These results underscore the benefit of sustainable biochar production to agricultural carbon neutrality, and to maximize the climate benefit requires differential policies and pyrolysis technologies tailored to regional availability of biomass resources. • The GHG mitigation potential of sustainable biochar in China was analyzed. • The maximum mitigation potential can offset all CH 4 and N 2 O emission from croplands. • Biochar GHG mitigation potential is affected significantly by pyrolysis temperature. • Sustainable biochar can contribute toward agricultural carbon neutrality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) is a crucial technology for global climate mitigation. To implement large-scale CCUS, decisions about where and how to build a CO 2 transportation network are urgently required. However, previous studies are limited in proposing the economical transportation network for CCUS that considered comprehensive risks from socio-economic, geographical and geological factors. Here, we develop a pipeline layout planning model to investigate the cost-effective and reliable transportation network for CCUS. Results show that to meet the annual CO 2 emission reduction target of 654 million tons for CCUS in the coal-fired power sector under China's carbon neutral goal, pipelines with a total length of 17,589 km need to be constructed. The emission sources can be transported in pipelines with an average radius of 58 km, and with diameters of 8, 12, and 16 inches. Northeast, north, and northwest China are the main areas suitable for pipeline construction. • Northeast, North, and Northwest in China are vital areas for capture, transport, and storage. • Five large-scale pipeline network groups can be constructed in China. • Pipeline construction is greatly affected by a variety of practical factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Characterizing and quantifying the carbon footprint (CF) of livestock production would offer insights into how livestock production contributes to climate change and help to establish potential greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation options. In Sichuan, one of the largest provinces for livestock production in China, a questionnaire farm survey was performed in 2012. CFs of livestock and poultry production were quantified using a dataset encompassing 20 farms for egg production, 25 farms for milk production, 20 farms for chicken production, and 32 farms for pork production, including both household and aggregated farms. The results revealed that over both farm types, emissions from manure treatment accounted for 70% and 74% of the total CFs in egg and chicken production, respectively. On average, 39% of the total CF in milk production was contributed by enteric fermentation; meanwhile, emissions by fodder production contributed on average 75% to the total CF of pork production. In general, egg, milk, chicken and pork production in Sichuan were associated with CFs of 3.70, 1.01, 20.02 and 5.42 kg CO 2 -eq/kg production for household farms, and 3.46, 1.13, 7.86 and 4.29 kg CO 2 -eq/kg for aggregated farm, respectively. Statistically, egg, chicken and pork production on household farms was characterized by higher CFs than that on aggregated farms. This study highlights that aggregated farm management could be an efficient option to mitigate the GHG emission in China's livestock production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A LiDAR-based measurement method for biomass estimation was proposed to assess forest emissions reduction • A significant discrepancy between ex-ante estimated emissions reduction (10.5 ktCO 2 e) and LiDAR-observed emissions reduction (22.4 ktCO 2 e) was found for a forest emissions reduction project in China • The adoption of airborne LiDAR technology could substantially reduce the cost of forest emissions reduction assessment • Recommendations were provided for policymakers to improve the reliability of forest emissions reduction assessment Given its large mitigation potential and predictable cost, forest carbon sequestration is crucial to reducing anthropogenic CO 2 emissions to achieve climate mitigation targets. However, forest-based mitigation activities have been constrained owing to the absence of a timely and cost-effective approach to assess emissions reduction, thereby limiting its financial support. This study presented a more economically viable approach to forest emissions reduction assessment using airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR) technology. Using a forest-based emissions reduction project in China as an on-site experiment subject, we developed species-specific LiDAR-based biomass estimation models to assess emissions reduction. It was observed that LiDAR-derived feature parameters could accurately predict forest biomass measurements estimated by the traditional ground-based method (R2 = 0.93). Interestingly, we found emissions reduction through field measurement (22.2 ktCO 2 e) or LiDAR observations (22.4 ktCO 2 e) was about two times higher than that estimated by the project developer before its implementation (10.5 ktCO 2 e). Furthermore, we found airborne LiDAR technology could significantly reduce monitoring cost ($/tCO 2 e), which would only account for a small share of the total implementation cost of a forest emissions reduction project. Based on these results, we summarized the advantages of applying airborne LiDAR technologies in developing forest-based emissions reduction projects and provided policy recommendations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from energy consumption have become a major focus all over the world. Cities, especially, are playing an important role in responding to the challenges of global climate change. However, there is still a lack of case studies on the whole life stage (including energy import, production, and consumption) at the city level. This is the first study to systematically estimate the whole lifecycle GHG emissions of urban energy consumption in Macau using the life cycle assessment (LCA) method. It identifies the main contributors, draws the balance framework diagram of energy GHG emissions, and proposes the effective reduction measures through a scenario analysis. The results show that the total GHG emissions of energy consumption in Macau increased from 2.10 × 103 kt CO 2 eq. in 2000 to 5.34 × 103 kt CO 2 eq. in 2018. In 2018, the energy-related GHG emissions in the import phase, production phase, and consumption phase were 3.37 × 103, 4.08 × 102 and 5.34 × 103 kt CO 2 eq., respectively. Since the return of Macau from Portugal to China (December 20, 1999), its GHG emissions from energy import have come to depend more on Mainland China, increasing from 71% in 2000 to 98% in 2018. For the consumption phase, indirect GHG emissions are more important, accounting for 75.3% of total GHG emissions in Macau. From the final consumption perspective, the gambling industry results in the largest GHG emissions (38.07% in 2018), followed by the transportation industry; while for the final energy consumption types, electricity consumption has become the predominant source. The scenario analysis shows that under an ideal scenario, the GHG emissions can be slowed down and will peak in 2033. [Display omitted] • It firstly estimates the whole lifecycle GHG emissions from Macau urban energy consumption. • The GHG emission dependence on the mainland China increases from 71% to 98% since 2000. • It draws the balance framework diagram of energy GHG emissions. • Gambling industry results in the largest GHG emissions in Macau. • Under ideal scenario, the GHG emissions will peak in 2033. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Currently, China faces both the challenge of mitigating the CO2 emissions in coping with global climate change and abating air pollutants emissions in dealing with domestic environmental stresses. Although there being on-going discussions, it is still not clear for China that how to integrate greenhouse gas abatement into air pollution control policy framework now. In this study, we try to estimate CO2 reduction by major greening Olympic measures for 2008 Beijing Olympic Games, aiming to provide evidence on curbing CO2 emissions as a co-benefit for improving local air quality by mega-events. CO2 emission reduction by three types of measures has been estimated including: energy related measures, transport management, and temporary air pollution control measures. As estimated, from the perspective of long-term effect, the measure of clean energy substitution and improving energy efficiency and application of advance energy saving technologies would be cost -effectiveness measures for China addressing both air pollution control and green-house gases abatement. We suggest China government integrate CO2 reduction to local air quality improvement policy framework, and take mega-events as triggers for more sustainable urbandevelopment. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The reduction of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions relies on farmers' active involvement in mitigation actions. However, little is known about farmers' capability of engaging with climate change mitigation. This study addresses the gap by delineating an actor-centered, capability-based, and multi-dimensional framework of farmers' carbon capability to elucidate how and to what extent farmers are equipped to engage in climate change mitigation. A structural equation model and farm-level data collected from China are used to explore the structural relationships between the carbon capability constructs. The results show that farmers' intrapsychic constructs are pro-environmental, and their cognitive knowledge about pro-climate farming practices is moderate. However, the performance of pro-climate farming is largely not under farmers' behavioral control. Farmers generally have a weak tendency to perform stable pro-climate farming behaviors, while they are slightly more inclined to behave pro-environmentally in social interactions. In addition, farmers' behavioral control capability emerges as the strongest predictor of the behavioral capability of farming, which, in turn, is an essential prerequisite for both the behavioral capability of socializing and influence capability. The findings of this study have important strategic implications for policymakers seeking to reduce agricultural greenhouse gas emissions. • A conceptual framework of farmers' carbon capability is proposed and tested. • Analyses elucidate the aspects in and extent to which farmers are equipped to engage in climate change mitigation. • Pro-climate farming is largely not under farmers' behavioral control. • Farmers' control over pro-climate farming matters to their own behaviors but also to peers' responses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As bioenergy produces neutral or even negative carbon emissions, the assessment of biomass resources and associated emissions mitigation is a key step toward a low carbon future. However, relevant comprehensive estimates lack in China. Here, we measure the energy potential of China's domestic biomass resources (including crop residues, forest residues, animal manure, municipal solid waste and sewage sludge) from 2000 to 2016 and draw the spatial-temporal variation trajectories at provincial resolution. Scenario analysis and life cycle assessment are also applied to discuss the greenhouse gas mitigation potentials. Results show that the collectable potential of domestic biomass resources increased from 18.31 EJ in 2000 to 22.67 EJ in 2016 with overall uncertainties fluctuating between (−26.6%, 39.7%) and (−27.6%, 39.5%). Taking energy crops into account, the total potential in 2016 (32.69 EJ) was equivalent to 27.6% of China's energy consumption. If this potential can be realized in a planned way to displace fossil fuels during the period 2020–2050, cumulative greenhouse gas emissions mitigation would be in the range of 1652.73–5859.56 Mt CO 2 -equivalent, in which the negative greenhouse gas emissions due to the introduction of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage would account for 923.78–1344.13 Mt CO 2 -equivalent. Contrary to increasing bioenergy potentials in most provinces, there are declining trends in Tibet, Beijing, Shanghai and Zhejiang. In addition, Yunnan, Sichuan and Inner Mongolia would have the highest associated greenhouse gas mitigation potentials. This study can provide valuable guidance on the exploitation of China's untapped biomass resources for the mitigation of global climate change. • China's bioenergy potential in 2016 accounted for 27.6% of its energy consumption. • The bioenergy potential in Tibet, Beijing, Shanghai and Zhejiang was declining. • GHG mitigation potentials of China's bioenergy would be 1653–5860 Mt CO 2 e by 2050. • China's bioenergy can contribute 6–21% to a global carbon mitigation goal in 2050. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large ammonia (NH 3) emissions contribute approximately 8–30% to the fine particle pollution in China and highlight the need for understanding the emission trends and mitigation effects of NH 3 in the future. The purpose of this study is to predict the NH 3 emissions and analyze the mitigation potential up to year 2040 by scenario analysis based on the established new NH 3 emission inventory from anthropogenic sources for the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region. The results showed that the total NH 3 emission in the BTH region was estimated at 966.14 Gg in 2016. Under the Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario, the total NH 3 emissions in 2030 and 2040 would increase by 13% and 26% compared with 2016 levels, with average annual growth rates of 0.9% and 1.0%, respectively. Livestock will continue to dominate NH 3 emissions in the future, with the proportions of total emissions increasing from 57% in 2016 to 64% in 2030 and 68% in 2040. The share of the second-largest NH 3 emission source, synthetic fertilizer application, will decrease from 36% in 2016 to 31% in 2030 and 27% in 2040. Among five other sources, the largest change occurred in waste disposal, increasing notably by 3.31 times from 2016 to 2040 owing to rapid urbanization. Under the Combined Options (CO) scenario, the total NH 3 emissions could be reduced by as much as 34% by 2030 and 50% by 2040 compared with the BAU scenario, which is attributed to livestock (24% in 2030, 37% in 2040) and synthetic fertilizer application (10% in 2030, 13% in 2040), respectively. This study can give a reliable estimation of anthropogenic NH 3 emission in the BTH region during 2020–2040 and provide a valuable reference for effective mitigation measures and control strategies for policy makers. Image 1 • The NH 3 emission trends from seven sectors were predicted during 2020–2040. • More efforts should be directed to reduce NH 3 emission from livestock source. • The NH 3 mitigation effects from various control measures till 2040 were compared. The total NH 3 emissions would increase in the future and livestock source had largest mitigation potential. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]