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• Substitution factors for forest products for the Canadian context were developed. • Substitution factors ranging from 0.51 to 0.91 tC/tC were found. • They will lead to more accurate assessments of the forest GHG mitigation potential. • These factors will help governments to manage forest and fight climate change. Evaluating the climate change mitigation potential of the forest sector requires a holistic approach based on forest carbon (C) sequestration, C storage in harvested wood products (HWP) and substitution on markets. High uncertainty is associated with substitution factors, that express avoided fossil greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the use of forest-based products in replacement of GHG-intensive materials and fossil fuels. Few studies have focused on the development of substitution factors in Canada, resulting in the use of unrepresentative generic data. Here, we provide a framework to reduce uncertainties related to substitution factors for primary wood products in a Canadian context. A life cycle assessment framework is used to quantify fossil GHG emissions for a baseline and a wood-intensive scenario. For solid product substitution, we focused on the construction sector and analyzed a range of innovative wood buildings with steel and reinforced concrete as alternative materials. We found non-weighted averages of 0.80 tC/tC for sawnwood and 0.81 tC/tC for panels. For energy substitution, we analyzed cases with different specifications on biomass product, facility type and alternative fossil fuel source in non-residential heat production and biofuel transportation sectors. We found a non-weighted average of 0.80 tC/tC for non-residential heat production and 0.51 tC/tC for biofuel transportation, that can be interpreted as 0.91 tC/tC for heavy fuel oil, 0.69 tC/tC for light fuel oil and 0.68 tC/tC for natural gas substitution. These results provide a benchmark for substitution factors in Canada, to help guide forest management strategies for climate change mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The deep decarbonization of the power systems is pivotal to the efforts of global energy transition and climate mitigation. The small modular reactor (SMR) is a decarbonized, reliable and secure generating technology that can bring new possibilities for global power-sector transition. However, such a transition involves a variety of complexities even beyond conventional systems. We comprehensively explore the SMR deployment and the decarbonization pathway in a number of diversified power and jurisdictional systems under various complexities associated with multiple variables, objectives, criteria and constraints that have dynamic and interactive relationships. This effort is based on the development of an SMR-embedded multi-region power system management model (SMPM). Using Canada as an example, here we show that SMRs would play different roles in diversified power systems, particularly for fossil-fuel dependent, highly variable renewable energy-penetrated and off-grid. The introduction of SMRs to Canada would result in up to 71% (/48%) emission reduction from 2005 (/2018) level in the country by 2045. Our results would help show the significance of SMRs for supporting the global energy transition. [Display omitted] • An SMPM model is developed to analyze low-carbon power system transition in Canada. • Multiple complexities and uncertainties in power systems are reflected. • SMR development issue is investigated within a power-system optimization framework. • The regional development of Canada is analyzed by a holistic optimization method. • GHG emissions from Canada's power sector would be 48% lower in 2045 than in 2018. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Displacement of fossil fuels by forest bioenergy can contribute to climate change mitigation by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, GHG savings are not realised until the avoided fossil emissions offset the loss of atmospheric carbon (C) that would have been sequestered if the biomass was not used for bioenergy (i.e. time to C sequestration parity). We estimated the potential for mitigating GHG emissions and the timing of these atmospheric benefits when substituting conventional natural gas (NG) with renewable natural gas (RNG) produced from different forestry feedstocks within three Canadian provinces, and assessed the uncertainty among these estimates. We calculated the GHG balance of RNG using the alternative fate of biomass and the use of NG as base-case scenarios. Immediate to long-term time to C sequestration parity was typically in the order of residues burned < mill residues < harvest residues decaying on site < salvaged trees. The potential GHG savings from using harvest and mill residues to produce RNG within the three provinces ranged from 52.4 to 77.8 Mt CO 2eq a−1. Sensitivity analyses suggest that time to C sequestration parity in the best-case scenarios relative to the baseline can be reduced up to 17 years by using harvest residues that decay rapidly (based on feedstock species, size and geographic region), and reduced up to 8 years by improving the efficiency of the thermochemical conversion process. These two considerations are key for ensuring significant GHG reductions from RNG use within a timescale that helps Canada meet its GHG mitigation targets. • Immediate GHG benefits for RNG produced with residues otherwise burned on site. • No short-term C sequestration parity time for RNG produced with forest residues. • C sequestration parity time >100 years for RNG produced with salvaged trees. • Potential net GHG savings of 52.4–77.8 Mt CO 2eq.year−1 for RNG use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]