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Abstract This paper presents a new approach to incorporate climate damages in the BAU emissions baselines. The shared socio-economic pathways framework is used to inform country-level changes in the mean surface temperature for the climate projections associated with each scenario. The temperature changes are used to calculate the economic damages using empirical estimates of climate effects on GDP growth. Finally, an energy system model is used under the original socio-economic assumptions and the climate-damaged assumptions, illustrating the indirect effect of climate change in a country-level energy system. Mexico was chosen to exemplify this method. The results show a reduction of energy access and a slow down of technological transition in the energy sector under climate-damaged projections. It is concluded that greenhouse gas mitigation goals should be re-calibrated under cost-benefit analysis that takes into account the damages associated with future climates consistent with the baseline. Thus, the nationally determined contributions that state the emission goals of many countries could be closer to limit the temperature to 1.5 Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Highlights • Climate change impacts on energy systems are assessed via climatically-damaged GDP. • New business as usual scenarios are computed accounting for its associated climates. • Under new BAU, energy production and society's welfare decreases. • Greenhouse gases mitigation goals should be re-calibrated under new BAU. • The recalibration could enable accomplishment of Paris Agreement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Japan is the sixth largest greenhouse gas emitter in 2016 and plays an important role to attain the long-term climate goals of the Paris Agreement. One of the key policy issues in Japan's energy and environmental policy arena is the energy system transition to achieve 80% emissions reduction in 2050, a current policy goal set in 2016. To contribute to the ongoing policy debate, this paper focuses on energy-related CO 2 emissions and analyzes such decarbonization scenarios that are consistent with the government goals. We employ six energy-economic and integrated assessment models to reveal decarbonization challenges in the energy system. The modeling results show that Japan's mitigation scenarios are characterized by high marginal costs of abatement. They also suggest that the industrial sector is likely to have a large final energy share and significant residual emissions under the 80% reduction scenario, though it is generally thought that the transport sector would have large decarbonization challenges. The present findings imply that not only energy policy but also industrial policy may be relevant to the long-term environmental target. Given the high marginal costs exceeding those of negative emissions technologies that could place a cost ceiling, further model development would be crucial. Highlights • We analyze the energy system scenarios to achieve 80% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2050. • We employ six integrated assessment models to reveal decarbonization challenges in the energy system. • The model results show that the industrial sector has a large final energy share and significant residual carbon dioxide emissions under the 80% reduction scenario. • We also show that Japan's mitigation scenarios are accompanied with high marginal costs of abatement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Energy scenarios provide guidance to energy policy, not least by presenting decarbonisation pathways for climate change mitigation. We review such scenarios for the example of Germany 2050, with a focus on the decarbonisation of heat generation and road transport. In this context, we characterize the role of renewable electricity and contrast two rivalling narratives: direct and indirect electrification. On the one hand, electricity directly provides heat and transport, using electric heat pumps, electric heaters, and battery electric vehicles. On the other hand, electricity, heat, and transport are indirectly linked, using gas heat pumps, gas heaters, fuel cell electric vehicles, and internal combustion engine vehicles, in combination with power-to-gas and power-to-liquid processes. To reach climate policy targets, our findings imply that energy stakeholders must (1) plan for the significant additional demand for renewable electricity for heat and road transport, (2) pave the way for system-friendly direct heat electrification, (3) be aware of technological uncertainties in the transport sector, (4) clarify the vision for decarbonisation, particularly for road transport, and (5) use holistic and more comparable scenario frameworks. Highlights • In the scenarios reviewed, GHG emission reduction targets drive electrification. • If targets are met by 2050, 40–100% of heat and car transport will be electrified. • The electricity consumption of heat and transport will increase to 400–800 TWh. • Heat generation, at least in the building sector, favours direct electrification. • Preferable electrification paths and technologies for road transport are unclear. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Renewable energy is an efficient tool to support China's endeavors to keep energy independence and mitigate climate change. This paper applies a Divisia index approach to investigate the factors governing renewable energy development in China, including the supply mix, energy security, carbon emission, and to forecast these requirements for the year 2020 and 2030. Grey relational model is employed to verify the relationships between renewable energy and its drivers. The results of the forecasts reveal the challenges of long-term deployment for renewable energy technologies. Other results show that during the research period, energy security makes a major contribution to renewable energy development. Energy security and substitution rate have relatively closer relationships with new and total renewable energy consumption respectively than that of other factors. Scenario analyses suggest that strong and continuing renewable energy policies will be helpful to achieve sustainable energy development in China and a strong synergy between renewable energy and energy security would emerge in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the social costs and benefits of potential configurations of electric vehicle deployment, including and excluding vehicle-to-grid. To fully explore the benefits and costs of different electric vehicle pathways, four different scenarios are devised with both today's and 2030 electricity grid in Denmark. These scenarios combine different levels of electric vehicle implementation and communication ability, i.e. smart charging or full bi-directionality, and then paired with different levels of future renewable energy implementation. Then, the societal costs of all scenarios are calculated, including carbon and health externalities to find the least-cost mix of electric vehicles for society. The most cost-effective penetration of electric vehicles in the near future is found to be 27%, increasing to 75% by 2030. This would equate to a $34 billion reduction to societal costs in 2030, a decrease of 30% compared to business as usual. This represents a projected annual savings per vehicle of $1200 in 2030. However, current vehicle capital cost differences, a lack of willingness to pay for electric vehicles, and consumer discount rates are substantial barriers to electric vehicle deployment in Denmark in the near term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the Rise of Central China Plan, the central region has had a great opportunity to develop its economy and improve its original industrial structure. However, this region is also under pressure to protect its environment, keep its development sustainable and reduce carbon emissions. Therefore, accurately estimating the temporal and spatial dynamics of CO 2 emissions and analysing the factors influencing these emissions are especially important. This paper estimates the CO 2 emissions derived from the fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes of 18 central cities in China between 2000 and 2014. The results indicate that these 18 cities, which contain an average of 6.57% of the population and 7.91% of the GDP, contribute 13% of China's total CO 2 emissions. The highest cumulative CO 2 emissions from 2000 to 2014 were from Taiyuan and Wuhan, with values of 2268.57 and 1847.59 million tons, accounting for 19.21% and 15.64% of the total among these cities, respectively. Therefore, the CO 2 emissions in the Taiyuan urban agglomeration and Wuhan urban agglomeration represented 28.53% and 20.14% of the total CO 2 emissions from the 18 cities, respectively. The three cities in the Zhongyuan urban agglomeration also accounted for a second highest proportion of emissions at 23.51%. With the proposal and implementation of the Rise of Central China Plan in 2004, the annual average growth rate of total CO 2 emissions gradually decreased and was lower in the periods from 2005 to 2010 (5.44%) and 2010 to 2014 (5.61%) compared with the rate prior to 2005 (12.23%). When the 47 socioeconomic sectors were classified into 12 categories, “power generation” contributed the most to the total cumulative CO 2 emissions at 36.51%, followed by the “non-metal and metal industry”, “petroleum and chemical industry”, and “mining” sectors, representing emissions proportions of 29.81%, 14.79%, and 9.62%, respectively. Coal remains the primary fuel in central China, accounting for an average of 80.59% of the total CO 2 emissions. Industrial processes also played a critical role in determining the CO 2 emissions, with an average value of 7.3%. The average CO 2 emissions per capita across the 18 cities increased from 6.14 metric tons in 2000 to 15.87 metric tons in 2014, corresponding to a 158.69% expansion. However, the average CO 2 emission intensity decreased from 0.8 metric tons/1000 Yuan in 2000 to 0.52 metric tons/1000 Yuan in 2014 with some fluctuations. The changes in and industry contributions of carbon emissions were city specific, and the effects of population and economic development on CO 2 emissions varied. Therefore, long-term climate change mitigation strategies should be adjusted for each city. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Local climate action is not only a domain of large cities, but also smaller urban areas that increasingly address climate change mitigation in their policy. The Danish municipality of Helsingør can achieve a substantial CO 2 emissions reduction by transforming its heat supply and deploying heat savings. In this paper, we model the heating system of Helsingør, assess it from a simple socio- and private-economic perspective, develop future scenarios, and conduct an iterative process to derive a cost-optimal mix between district heating, individual heating and heat savings. The results show that in 2030 it is cost-optimal to reduce the heating demand by 20–39% by implementing heat savings, to deploy 32%–41% of district heating and to reduce heating-related CO 2 emissions by up to 95% in comparison to current emissions. In 2050, the cost-optimal share of district heating in Helsingør increases to between 38 and 44%. The resulting average heating costs and CO 2 emissions are found to be sensitive to biomass and electricity price. Although the findings of the study are mainly applicable for Helsingør, the combined use of the Least Cost Tool and modelling with energyPRO is useful in planning of heating and/or cooling supply for different demand configurations, geographical region and scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The danger of climate change has over the years become a reality in the public domain. While efforts to mitigate climate change involve energy mix, energy efficiency and cleaner technology, financial development has also been considered as an important factor. Indicator of financial development may draw FDI and advanced degree of research and development which can accelerate economic growth and hence affect dynamism of environmental performance. This study examines the impacts of energy use and financial development indicators by source in the environment-growth-energy model for 90 countries categorized on the basis of income possession over the period 1980–2014. The study applies the panel analysis that accounts for cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity of series used in the estimation. Results from panel Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) show that in all the categories of countries, fossil fuel energy use and GDP per capita are found to be the major drivers of CO 2 emissions though fossil fuel energy use possesses the bigger elasticities. Population however, displays a sign contrary to expectation regarding economic theory in high income countries. Renewable energy and financial development on the other hand are capable of reducing CO 2 emissions. However, the magnitude of the long-run elasticity of CO 2 emissions with respect to renewable energy use and financial development are much greater in the models with M 2 /GDP than the model with M 2 /Reserve especially in the high income countries. Policies should be geared towards stimulating investments in renewable energy technology. There is need to develop robust financial systems to lend financial credence to research institutes to work towards producing energy that have less carbon or are carbon-free. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban form is increasingly being recognised by scientists for the potential role it might play in the coordination of sustainable urban development and the reduction of CO 2 emissions. However, despite increasing interest in the morphology of cities in climate change science, few quantitative estimates have been made of the effects of urban form on CO 2 emissions. The goal of this study is to quantify this relation, using panel data for China’s 30 provincial capital cities from 1990 to 2010. In order to meet this aim, we first selected a series of urban form indicators, which we quantified by applying spatial metrics to remotely sensed data. We then estimated CO 2 emission levels using a unified standard method recommended by the IPCC Guidelines, and subsequently performed a panel data analysis. The results of the study demonstrated a positive correlation between the growth of urban areas and CO 2 emission levels. Further, it was also found that increased “urban continuity” led to reductions in CO 2 emissions and that, conversely, increased “urban shape complexity” exerted a positive influence in relation to CO 2 emissions. The findings of this study indicate that measures to make existing cities in China more compact may in fact help to reduce levels of CO 2 emissions, just as increasing fragmentation or increased irregularity with respect to urban form may contribute to increased CO 2 emissions. If serious about achieving meaningful reductions in CO 2 emissions, decision makers and planners should take urban form into consideration when developing low-carbon cities in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We introduce a new method for incorporating short-term temporal variability of both power demand and VRE (variable renewables) into long-term energy-economy models: the RLDC approach. The core of the implementation is a representation of RLDCs (residual load duration curves), which change endogenously depending on the share and mix of VRE. The approach captures major VRE integration challenges and the energy system's response to growing VRE shares without a considerable increase of numerical complexity. The approach also allows for an endogenous representation of power-to-gas storage and the simultaneous optimization of long-term investment and short-term dispatch decisions of non-VRE plants. As an example, we apply the RLDC approach to REMIND-D, a long-term energy-economy model of Germany, which was based on the global model REMIND-R 1.2. Representing variability results in significantly more non-VRE capacity and reduces the generation of VRE in 2050 by about one-third in baseline and ambitious mitigation scenarios. Explicit modeling of variability increases mitigation costs by about one fifth, but power-to-gas storage can alleviate this increase by one third. Implementing the RLDC approach in a long-term energy-economy model would allow improving the robustness and credibility of scenarios results, such as mitigation costs estimates and the role of VRE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mitigating climate change is driving the need to decarbonize the electricity sector, for which various possible technological options exist, alongside uncertainty over which options are preferable in terms of cost, emissions reductions, and energy security. To reduce this uncertainty, we here quantify two questions for the power system of Great Britain (England, Wales and Scotland): First, when compared within the same high-resolution modeling framework, how much do different combinations of technologies differ in these three respects? Second, how strongly does the cost and availability of grid-scale storage affect overall system cost, and would it favor some technology combinations above others? We compare three main possible generation technologies: (1) renewables, (2) nuclear, and (3) fossil fuels (with/without carbon capture and storage). Our results show that across a wide range of these combinations, the overall costs remain similar, implying that different configurations are equally feasible both technically and economically. However, the most economically favorable scenarios are not necessarily favorable in terms of emissions or energy security. The availability of grid-scale storage in scenarios with little dispatchable generation can reduce overall levelized electricity cost by up to 50%, depending on storage capacity costs. The UK can rely on its domestic wind and solar PV generation at lower renewable shares, with levelized costs only rising more than 10% above the mean of 0.084 GBP/kWh for shares of 50% and below at a 70% share, which is 35% higher. However, for more than an 80% renewable generation share to be economically feasible, large-scale storage, significantly more power imports, or domestic dispatchable renewables like tidal range must be available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The near future change in productivity of photovoltaic energy (PVE) in Europe and Africa is assessed by using the climate variables simulated by the ECHAM5-HAM aerosol-climate model, and a model for the performance of photovoltaic systems. The climate simulations are forced by green-house gases emissions from the IPCC SRES B2 scenario. In addition, different scenarios for future anthropogenic aerosols emissions are applied. Thus, the sensitivity of the future PVE productivity to changes in aerosol atmospheric burdens between 2000 and 2030 is analyzed. The analysis indicates that reductions in aerosols emissions in the near future result in an increase of global warming, and a significant response in surface solar radiation and associated PVE productivity. A statistically significant reduction in PVE productivity up to 7% is observed in eastern Europe and northern Africa, while a significant increase up to 10% is observed in western Europe and eastern Mediterranean. The changes in surface solar radiation and PVE productivity are related to global effects of aerosols reduction on the large scale circulation and associated cloud cover pattern, rather than to local effects on the atmospheric optical properties. PVE assessment is then discussed in the frame of the present situation and next decades evolution of the photovoltaic market, highlighting that the effects on productivity induced by industrial and public policies, and technological development are comparable to climate related effects. The presented results encourage the improvement and further use of climate models in assessment of future renewable energies availability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: As forecasted by the International Energy Agency Energy Technology Perspectives baseline scenario, the largest increment in LDV (light-duty vehicles) stock, travel demand and transport sector energy consumption will take place in the developing world. In the developing countries where the import of used vehicles is allowed, a considerable portion of the LDV stock increment will be realized with used vehicles. In this paper, the analytical framework for assessment of climate change mitigation potential of transport sector in developing countries is adapted in order to incorporate the expected vehicle fleet increase with used vehicles. The evaluation of appropriate mitigation strategies is performed using the GHG Costing Model (GACMO), which compares each mitigation option with the BAU (business-as-usual) option and determines its environmental effectiveness (t CO2 reduced) and economic effectiveness (US$/t CO2 reduced). The adapted analytical framework is applied on the case of transport sector of Macedonia, evaluating appropriate options inline with five mitigation strategies: improvement of vehicle fleet, introduction of low carbon fuels, improvement of travel behaviour, advancement of vehicle equipment and improvement of driver behaviour. The resulting marginal cost curve for the year 2020 indicates a total achievable reduction of 22% with respect to BAU GHG transport sector emissions, with bulk of it at relatively high specific costs of around 90 US$/t CO2. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper presents an assessment of global economic energy potentials for all major natural energy resources. This work is based on both an extensive literature review and calculations using natural resource assessment data. Economic potentials are presented in the form of cost-supply curves, in terms of energy flows for renewable energy sources, or fixed amounts for fossil and nuclear resources, with strong emphasis on uncertainty, using a consistent methodology that allow direct comparisons to be made. In order to interpolate through available resource assessment data and associated uncertainty, a theoretical framework and a computational methodology are given based on statistical properties of different types of resources, justified empirically by the data, and used throughout. This work aims to provide a global database for natural energy resources ready to integrate into models of energy systems, enabling to introduce at the same time uncertainty over natural resource assessments. The supplementary material provides theoretical details and tables of data and parameters that enable this extensive database to be adapted to a variety of energy systems modelling frameworks. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]