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Future projections indicate an expansion for both food and energy demands, which can increase pressure on land use, while there is an urgent global need for climate change mitigation. Bioenergy is foreseen as key option to meet future energy demands and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, however its sustainability depends on locations and regional characteristics. Simultaneously, agricultural production models that co-produce food, feed, and energy offer sustainability synergies and co-benefits, but site-specific sustainability assessments of their large-scale implementation are missing. This study presents a bottom-up approach to assess spatially explicit sustainability aspects of bioenergy-livestock integrated systems (BLI) in Brazil and shed light on their contribution to future energy demands, to climate change mitigation targets, and their impacts on selected ecosystem services, including bioenergy production, climate change mitigation, reduction of food competition, biodiversity conservation, and avoided deforestation. The proposed integration considers livestock intensification and use of biofuels by-products as animal feed supplement, taking advantage of synergies between these two value chains. The expansion of the BLI system in the Center-South region of Brazil produce up to 89 billion liters of ethanol, enough to meet future domestic ethanol demands from multiple shared socioeconomic pathways and generating surpluses for export. This production takes place on 16 million hectares of pastureland within the Sugarcane Agroecological Zoning, excluding the Amazon and Pantanal biomes, and biodiversity hotspots. BLI expansion mitigate up to 250 million tonnes of CO 2 eq and generate 15 billion dollars of profits. The best locations to maximize the selected ecosystem services are west of São Paulo, east of Mato Grosso do Sul, and the south-central region of the states of Goiás. This study may encourage the formulation of enhanced public policies for the integration of bioenergy and livestock value chains and guide a sustainable large-scale deployment of BLI systems. • Bioenergy and livestock integration (BLI): co-production of food, feed and energy. • BLI systems: 89 billion liters of ethanol and 250 million tonnes of CO 2 eq mitigated. • Enough ethanol to meet future Brazilian demands and surplus to be exported. • Biomass expansion only on pastureland inside Sugarcane Agroecological Zoning. • Without land displacement and deforestation of native vegetation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Bioenergy-livestock integrated systems can alleviate pressure on land resources. • BLI has potential to meet global future biofuel demands and climate mitigation targets. • Production of feed using bioenergy by-products is techno-economically feasible. • Biofuels from integrated systems can reduce GHG emissions compared to fossil fuels. • There is still room to further explore the integration of bioenergy-livestock value chains. Bioenergy is seen as a key option to meet future energy demands and mitigate climate impacts. However, large-scale deployment of bioenergy can cause an additional pressure over land resources and correspondent sustainability impacts. Enhanced land management practices are fundamental to intensify land-based outputs under different climate mitigation scenarios. Bioenergy-livestock integration (BLI) is a win-win strategy to climate mitigation while ensuring food and fibers demands from the society by using bioenergy by-products as animal feed to release land to additional industrial crops production. This study comparatively assesses BLI opportunities in Brazil to better understand the sustainability issues of the alternatives for integration of these value chains, highlighting the key techno-economic and environmental aspects. When compared to conventional systems, the BLI systems present positive techno-economic impacts and lower greenhouse gas emissions, reaching mitigations up to 32 % and 22 % for meat and ethanol production, respectively. The expansion of BLI systems in Brazil could meet projected biofuels future demands, using less than 20 % of the expected area for this expansion. Potential expansion areas are concentrated in Center-South region of Brazil. BLI systems can be further advanced by including other synergies, such as codigestion of sugarcane vinasse and cattle manure, integration of flex ethanol plants with biodiesel plants, maximization of biofuels by-products as animal feed, and inclusion of novel promising alternative industrial crops such as macauba, sweet sorghum, energy cane and short rotation eucalyptus coppice. However, we identify many potential barriers including the operational complexity, specific know-how, and necessity of economic incentives. This study may provide important insights for strategic and integrated polices for both agricultural and livestock sections as the proper sustainability assessment of an early stage of the deployment of enhanced BLI systems may help to meet global future demands of energy while also contributing to climate change targets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biofuels are predicted to constitute a large proportion of fuel consumption in the global transport sector under stringent climate mitigation polices in future. In Brazil, sugarcane ethanol has been widely deployed at large scale and an oriented expansion of sugarcane is considered to be a key measure to ensure the expected positive outcomes from biofuels. In this study, more recent and accurate georeferenced information were combined with an enhanced land use classification system to update the original Sugarcane Agroecological Zoning (SAEZ). We also excluded environmentally relevant areas (ERA) in our updated SAEZ to create a new set of reference maps for supporting future prioritization of areas for sugarcane ethanol expansion. We mapped 41.7 Mha as suitable land for sugarcane expansion in center-south region of Brazil, differently from the 50 Mha indicated in the original SAEZ. After excluding the ERA, 33.7 Mha was found to be suitable for sugarcane expansion, of which 20 Mha is currently occupied with pasture lands. About half of these areas were located in Mato Grosso do Sul and Minas Gerais states and an exploratory assessment of two microregions from these states demonstrated the importance of conducting regional assessments to prioritize the areas for a more sustainable sugarcane expansion to meet future bioenergy demands. • Our analysis identified an area 17% smaller than original agro-ecological zoning suitable for sugarcane expansion. • By excluding environmentally relevant areas, the total suitable area for sugarcane expansion is reduced to 33.7 Mha. • About two thirds of that area is currently occupied with pasture lands. • About half of suitable areas occupied with pasture lands are in two Brazilian states. • Local conditions are fundamental for oriented expansion of bioenergy production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to provide an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) perspective of the production and distribution of alternative marine fuels in Brazilian ports, considering the International Maritime Organization (IMO) emission reduction target for 2050 (IMO2050). Although other mitigation measures are available, it is likely that alternative fuels will be required, implying additional costs and entailing relevant impacts on other energy chains and land use. Hence, the national IAM BLUES model is adapted to represent the relevant part of the international shipping sector. A set of scenarios is developed considering different fuel alternatives, demand assumptions and national mitigation targets. Findings show that taking into account emissions of CO 2 only or of all greenhouse gases (GHGs) within the IMO strategy significantly impacts the optimal technological portfolio. Furthermore, achieving the IMO2050 goal without considering a national decarbonization strategy may result in potential spillovers. The intense use of the energy sector could partially compromise the gains obtained by maritime decarbonization or even surpass it. Therefore, only an integrated mitigation strategy would lead to more effective decarbonization of the entire marine supply. • There is no single optimal portfolio of alternative fuels for shipping. • Brazil can fulfil any low-carbon marine fuel strategy. • Marine fuels should be part of all national decarbonization strategies. • The decarbonization of shipping should be part of Brazil's deep mitigation pathways. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]